Which Oscar Best Film nominees have you seen?

I didn't realize, they're nominating TEN now. We've seen The King's Speech, True Grit, The Fighter, Toy Story 3, The Black Swan, and Inception. We have Winter's Bone on the DVR, haven't watched it yet, and we're kind of ticked we missed The Social Network. The Kids are Alright and 127 Hours, eh. Neither Mrs nor I have really felt motivated to go looking for either of those, we'll catch them on pay-per-view. 127 Hours just has that look of being a chore to watch. The Kids are Alright was limited release in our area, I think it was around for a week.

Of the ones we've seen, we liked them all other than Inception. Even Toy Story 3 was surprisingly worthwhile. Discussing it on the way home, we couldn't pick a favorite from our four most recent (in order of viewing: True Grit, The Fighter, The Black Swan, and The King's Speech); I'd give the best picture of those four to The Black Swan, because that story could only be told as a film. But an argument could be made for any of them, that's just me using an arbitrary yardstick to pick one of them.

What say you?

I liked the Social Network. best film of the year by far. HOWEVER, the movie "21" is still grating on me for the amount of Bs in the movie, so I think it should lose as a penalty. ;)

Quote: Mosca

We have Winter's Bone on the DVR, haven't watched it yet,

I know this is an old post, so I was wondering if you watched Winter's Bone yet? Jennifer Lawrence is up for her 2nd nomination (at age 22). The odds are from Ladbroke's

Best Actress is Jennifer as a foulmouthed nympho
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook 4/9
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty 9/4
Emannuelle Riva - Amour 14/1
Naomi Watts - The Impossible 20/1
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild 33/1

Best Actor is a runaway favorite (again)
Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln 1/7
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables 8/1
Denzel Washington - Flight 12/1
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master 14/1
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook 20/1

Best Director is a runaway favorite
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln 1/5
Ang Lee - Life of Pi 6/1
Michael Haneke - Amour 12/1
David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook 14/1
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild 33/1


Best Picture is a clear favorite
Lincoln 1/3
Argo 6/1
Les Miserables 7/1
Zero Dark Thirty 12/1
Silver Linings Playbook 16/1
Life of Pi 20/1
Amour 50/1
Beasts of the Southern Wild 125/1
Django Unchained 125/1


Best Supporting Actor is a two way
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln 11/10
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master 11/8
Robert De Niro - The Silver Linings Playbook 8/1
Alan Arkin - Argo 10/1
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained 20/1


Best Supporting Actress is probably not worth watching
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables 1/10
Sally Field - Lincoln 12/1
Helen Hunt - The Sessions 14/1
Amy Adams - The Master 20/1
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook 33/1

Amy Adams is becoming the Meryl Streep of Supporting Actresses with her 4th Oscar nomination in this category.

Well the Golden Globes picked the Ladbroke's favorite for the first three categories, but they went with "Argo" for the Best Picture

Best Actress is Jennifer as a foulmouthed nympho
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook 4/9 - Won Golden Globe

Best Actor is a runaway favorite (again)
Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln 1/7 - Won Golden Globe

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables 1/10- Won Golden Globe


Best Picture is a clear favorite
Lincoln 1/3
Argo 6/1- Won Golden Globe

-------------------
Christopher Waltz as the long shot won Best Supporting Actor. Golden Globes differed from the Academy Awards by only one nomination (DiCaprio instead of DeNiro)

Best Supporting Actor is a two way
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln 11/10
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master 11/8
Robert De Niro - The Silver Linings Playbook 8/1 (Not nominated for Golden Globe, Leonardo DiCaprio instead)
Alan Arkin - Argo 10/1
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained 20/1- Won Golden Globe

-------------------
For Director the Golden Globes had only one nomination in common with the Academy Awards (Ang Lee). Golden Globes picked Ben Affleck who wasn't even on the Academy Awards list of nominees.


Best Director
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln 1/5
Ang Lee - Life of Pi 6/1
Michael Haneke - Amour 12/1
David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook 14/1
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild 33/1

So Wizard, there are probably more risks available this year. When will you announce your bets?

The ony two of those I've seen, in a year when I went to the movies a lot, are Django and Life of Pi, which I saw yesterday. I've been meaning to see Lincoln, but am holding out for somebody to offer me extra credit in history class.

None.

Quote: Wizard

The only two of those I've seen,

Seen? Heck, I'm happy if I've even heard of the movies they have out these days.

>extra credit in history class...
Cinematic license is usually such that a movie and history have little relationship to each other. Oh sure, there really was a Napoleon and there really was an RMS Titanic and there really was a US Civil War, but often movies bear little relationship to the truth. You don't earn extra credit in history, you will earn extra credit in propaganda!

None. The last movie I saw was The Muppets in 2011.

Quote: Wizard

The ony two of those I've seen, in a year when I went to the movies a lot, are Django and Life of Pi, which I saw yesterday. I've been meaning to see Lincoln, but am holding out for somebody to offer me extra credit in history class.

Quote: pacomartin

So, last year you bet a lot more money to win just a grand more than this year. Does it make you more or less nervous?

$51,125 $5,088 9.95% (for 2010 year) {ACTUAL WINNINGS WERE $4,713, LOST SMALLEST BET)
$18,603 $4,040 21.72% (for 2011 year)

So if you are trying to equal last year's return you could:

$7000 $700 Daniel Day Lewis Best Actor
$7000 $700 Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress
$1400 $800 Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress
$2100 $700 Lincoln as Best Picture
$800 $1100 Tommy Lee Jones for for Best Supporting Actress
$18,300 to win $4,000 or $2100 if you lost the last bet

Or you could just bet all your money on DDL and Anne Hathaway

Quote: Wizard

I've been meaning to see Lincoln, but am holding out for somebody to offer me extra credit in history class.

I can do that, as soon as I figure out how to link Lincoln to Rome...

Quote: Wizard

The ony two of those I've seen, in a year when I went to the movies a lot, are Django and Life of Pi, which I saw yesterday. I've been meaning to see Lincoln, but am holding out for somebody to offer me extra credit in history class.

Silver Linings Playbook is one of the best movies I've seen in years. Cannot recommend it more highly.

Quote: pacomartin

Best Picture is a clear favorite
Lincoln 1/3
Argo 6/1- Won Golden Globe

Hopefully someone put some early bets on Argo and will make a killing if it wins Best Picture

Argo 8/13
Lincoln 7/4
Les Miserables 25/1
Silver Linings Playbook 33/1
Life of Pi 50/1
Zero Dark Thirty 66/1
Amour 100/1
Beasts of the Southern Wild 125/1
Django Unchained 150/1

This is the first year when I can state I bet I never
see any of these movies, none of them appeal to
me. Lincoln, boring. Les, saw the play. The rest
are either too 'Hollywood' or not interesting sounding.

Quote: EvenBob

This is the first year when I can state I bet I never see any of these movies, none of them appeal to me. Lincoln, boring. Les, saw the play. The rest are either too 'Hollywood' or not interesting sounding.

The idea behind increasing the nominations for Best Picture was that some well made blockbuster films would get nominated. They weren't going to win, but at least they would get public enthusiasm to increase for the awards. Looking at nominated pictures that grossed in the top 15, we see that idea didn't last long.

2009
1 Avatar
5 Up
8 The Blind Side

2010
1 Toy Story 3
6 Inception
13 True Grit

2011
13 The Help

2012
14 Lincoln

=========================
What is true is that 7 of the 9 Best Picture nominations were mid level popularity films. Films that avid movie goers are likely to have seen at the Box office.
14 Lincoln
17 Django Unchained
19 Les Miserables (2012)
25 Argo
28 Life of Pi
38 Silver Linings Playbook
39 Zero Dark Thirty
132 Beasts of the Southern
181 Amour

It's been only 9 years since most of the films nominated were popular, and the winner was the #1 ranked most popular film of the year.
1 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
17 Seabiscuit
31 Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
33 Mystic River
67 Lost in Translation

After four years, I think I can pronounce that the Academy's decision to increase the number of possible nominations for Best Picture is a failure. I still think they need two categories (although it is still difficult to determine how to make the decision). Smaller art house films should not be competing against pictures made for mass distribution. There are good movies made to a different standard and for a different purpose. It seems stupid that they should only win technical awards
Marvel's The Avengers
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
Ted

The only category where commercial success and awards can comfortably go hand in hand are the animated films
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph

Quote: pacomartin

Best Director is a runaway favorite
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln 1/5
Ang Lee - Life of Pi 6/1
Michael Haneke - Amour 12/1
David O Russell - Silver Linings Playbook 14/1
Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild 33/1

Ang Lee was the big upset of the Academy Awards. Hopefully somone made money on him.

Once again the Best Picture seems a runaway favorite (Bet365 odds)
12 Years a Slave 4/11
Gravity 9/4
American Hustle 10
The Wolf Of Wall Street 100
The Dallas Buyers Club 250
Philomena 250
Her 250
Captain Phillips 250
Nebraska 250

But the odds are reversed for Best Director. Is this a money making opportunity?
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity 1/7
Steve McQueen - 12 Years A Slave 9/2

Best Actor has done a turnabout, as Chiwetel was the early favorite
Matthew McConaughey - The Dallas Buyers Club 2/9
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Twelve Years A Slave 7/2

Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine seems a certainty for Best Actress

Best supporting actress
Lupita Nyongo - is edging out Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

Best supporting actor has a clear front runner in Jared Leto
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club 1/12
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave