Demographics is destiny? It doesn't appear to be true.

To the extent that Republicans are perceived as the party of the MAWG (Middle Aged White Guys), there were some people who saw the 2008 election as decisively determined by the changing demographics of the nation combined with the continuing political empowerment of women. They saw a future of Democrats only growing more and more powerful with each election.

But, women lost numbers for the first time in 30 years. Blanche Lincoln in the Senate and Betsy Markey, Carol Shea-Porter, Suzanne Kosmas, and Dina Titus in the House also saw defeat last night. Of course, the wave of Republicans going to Washington still do not include a lot of minorities. Nikki Haley, is our second Indian American. As a young attractive governor of ethnicity, I am sure that she will end up for consideration as VP candidate for the 2012 election, along with Bobby Jindal and Susana Martinez.


Do you see Republican's broadening their base? Will they no longer be the party of the MAWGs?

Quote: pacomartin

To the extent that Republicans are perceived as the party of the MAWG (Middle Aged White Guys), there were some people who saw the 2008 election as decisively determined by the changing demographics of the nation combined with the continuing political empowerment of women. They saw a future of Democrats only growing more and more powerful with each election.

But, women lost numbers for the first time in 30 years. Blanche Lincoln in the Senate and Betsy Markey, Carol Shea-Porter, Suzanne Kosmas, and Dina Titus in the House also saw defeat last night. Of course, the wave of Republicans going to Washington still do not include a lot of minorities. Nikki Haley, is our second Indian American. As a young attractive governor of ethnicity, I am sure that she will end up for consideration as VP candidate for the 2012 election, along with Bobby Jindal and Susana Martinez.


Do you see Republican's broadening their base? Will they no longer be the party of the MAWGs?

The GOP has the naturally wider base with the Dems as more of an opposition party. The GOP has just a few beliefs. Smaller government with lower taxes. Stroing national defense. Traditional values. The average GOP Voter wants mostly just to be left alone.

Dems, meanwhile, are just a collection of special interest groups. Unions, gays, radical feminists and envrionmentalists, etc. They are far more likely to be caught in "wedge issues" or intra-party conflicts. For example, a union member's interest really does not match with a gay activist and the union member's interest might be in conflict with say the envrionmentalists in the case of offshore drilling.

The other point is with minorities. Just because you are black or latino what says you want gay marrige or carbon taxes?

I predict it will go one of two ways. In the first, GOP demographics will broaden as minorities increase in % of population and think of themselves as individuals first and not part of a group. That is the thinking positive scenerio. Thinking negative, I predict if that does not happen then whites; asians; and maybe cubans go to the gop with blacks and latinos flocking to the dems.

Demographich in the USA will undergo major changes in the USA and the makeup of politics will follow.

The Republicans will always antagonize women (they are strongly misogynist), non-Believers (they think the best possible government is an Iran-style micromanaging theocracy, albeit with a different imaginary deity), those who give a shit about the environment ("liberal tree-hugging hippies"), and anybody who thinks there should be any kind of income redistribution (GODDAMN SOCIALISTS!!!!!!). So, the Democrats will always have a base---those who the Republicans totally piss off.

The Democrats will always antagonize entrepreneurs (whose primary request of government is that it stays the hell out of their business), people in the upper income strata (who fear, with a certain justification, that they are demonized by the left), fundamentalist Christians (who see the Democratic party as the spawn of Satan), and those who think that it isn't the task of government to cure social ills (cruel, mean, heartless conservatives). So, the Republicans will always have a base---those who the Democrats totally piss off.

If either side would retreat from its rigid, shouted-at-100-decibels ideology, then the side that did that first would dominate American politics. Instead, the entire political poop pile is dividing sharply, and everyone is scurrying for the far right or the far left. The electorate that lies in the middle is left swiveling its head back and forth, saying, "Where'd everybody go??" It's not exactly a good sign when each party's rhetoric says that compromise and moderation are signs of weakness.

The election victory by the Republicans was mostly caused by the independents who all swayed away from Obama and as a general rejection of the performance by the Congress, Senate, and president over the last two years. Obamacare is a joke, not because of the actual intent of the bill in itself, but because of all of the hidden stuff in the bill. One of the hidden things is the new reporting requirement starting in 2013 where all businesses will now need to prepare paperwork to report any payments over $600 in a calendar year. So, for example, if you are a business, and you pay say, Staples, $1,000 for office supplies, you will now have to send them (and the government) a 1099 report saying that you paid them $1,000. It's a mess.

If there isn't a marked boost of the economy and the performance of Congress, look for those same republicans who were voted in to be voted out again.

Quote: AZDuffman

The GOP has the naturally wider base with the Dems as more of an opposition party. The GOP has just a few beliefs. Smaller government with lower taxes. Stroing national defense. Traditional values. The average GOP Voter wants mostly just to be left alone.

Dems, meanwhile, are just a collection of special interest groups. Unions, gays, radical feminists and envrionmentalists, etc. They are far more likely to be caught in "wedge issues" or intra-party conflicts. For example, a union member's interest really does not match with a gay activist and the union member's interest might be in conflict with say the envrionmentalists in the case of offshore drilling.

The other point is with minorities. Just because you are black or latino what says you want gay marrige or carbon taxes?

I predict it will go one of two ways. In the first, GOP demographics will broaden as minorities increase in % of population and think of themselves as individuals first and not part of a group. That is the thinking positive scenerio. Thinking negative, I predict if that does not happen then whites; asians; and maybe cubans go to the gop with blacks and latinos flocking to the dems.

Demographich in the USA will undergo major changes in the USA and the makeup of politics will follow.

Your answer is very astute. Latino Americans will shortly surpass German Americans as the largest ethnicity in the USA.

Americans with English ancestry are probably a larger group, but as they are frequently intermarried with more recent immigrant groups. People tend to identify with the later ethnic group and/or consider English and American as interchangeable.

As the largest ethnic group they may not feel compelled to gravitate towards one party or the other. I was talking to a Mexican American from Texas who can trace his roots back to Mexicans living in Texas since the early 17th century (much further than almost all American citizens).

It also seems that southern Asians are migrating towards the GOP.

Quote: boymimbo

If there isn't a marked boost of the economy and the performance of Congress, look for those same republicans who were voted in to be voted out again.

In other words, this whole election cycle could be a cover to re-establish Democratic control of Congress in time for Obama to be re-elected in 2012? Now that's long-term strategic planning.

Quote: MathExtremist

In other words, this whole election cycle could be a cover to re-establish Democratic control of Congress in time for Obama to be re-elected in 2012? Now that's long-term strategic planning.

Ooooh, boy, that's evil. They're sandbagging! That explains a lot. Slowplay in 2010, then hit 'em with a big checkraise in 2012. That's how Mike beat TeddyKGB..."he sit there like alligator! Check, check, check!" Then...whammo!

Or...(5 million to one shot here): after the cluster-fuck continues for another two years, people realize that the problem is not that there are too many Republicans or too many Democrats, but rather, that there are such animals in the first place.

Do you realize that if Obama does not run again, or is defeated, he will be the youngest ex-president in history?

Grover Cleveland was only 6 months older, but he just waited four more years and ran again to victory.

Even if he does win another four years, he will probably be the only ex-president with kids in college.

Given his worldwide popularity with the 7 billion people in the world, he might end up with a better job than POTUS. Certainly he should end up worth a hell of a lot of money.

As a lifelong Democrat (although I refuse to vote for them as long as a racist First Couple is in the White House) we've always seen Republicans as the heartbeat of America, and it is usually us that want change. MAWG's from all but the lowest income and motivation class are among Republicans. Democrats however are going to get stronger the longer we allow illegals to come here unchecked and as long as liberals in charge do not want voters to identify themselves at the polls. And since Democrats are made up mostly of foreigners, minorities, hippies, lifelong students, queers, and out-of-work lazy white people who are perfectly happy with massive entitlements that keep them from contributing to the society they rape, we'll go through multiple cycles of electing losers like Obama and watching as REAL AMERICA comes out to vote those jokers out of office in the very next elections.

Quote: pacomartin

It also seems that southern Asians are migrating towards the GOP.

They have been for quite some time. For one reason, Asians get punished by affimitive action even worse than whites. Liberals have anti-asian bias and in fact some have complained several UC Colleges look "too asian." Ugh.