pacomartin
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:07:52 AM permalink
Back to the original intention of this thread

The September figures at the airport are posted. The loss of 15K passengers that Mexicana brought in last September seems to have been partially replaced. Aeromexico, Viva-airbus, and Continental's numbers are up (but not by 15K passengers).

An attention grabbing headline that has been recently circulating says that Univision will be ahead of all four major Anglo Networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, and FOX) in less than a decade. It underscores the importance of marketing to the latino market. The 2010 census is expecting to show 50 million latinos in the USA.

The prediction is that 2019 will be the last year that the population of Mexico is growing faster than the population of the USA. That prediction is using the census estimates of what future migration will be. In the past every estimate has been under the real growth.

In general the international visitors went down by 6% and overall reduction was 2%.
EvenBob
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:36:55 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Back to the original intention of this thread


An attention grabbing headline that has been recently circulating says that Univision will be ahead of all four major Anglo Networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, and FOX) in less than a decade. It underscores the importance of marketing to the latino market.



Is the Latino market different than the regular market? Aren't you being a racist? What would you say if I'd talked about the importance of marketing to the 'White market'?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Doc
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:51:19 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Is the Latino market different than the regular market? Aren't you being a racist? What would you say if I'd talked about the importance of marketing to the 'White market'?

Marketing is way outside of my area, but I suspect that the "White market" (whatever that really is) has much less interest in seeing shows and commercials broadcast in Spanish, promos for discounted phone rates to Central and South America, and local news items for those same areas. I think it can be disastrous not to recognize that there are different segments in a market and that they respond differently. If a segment is of negligible size, perhaps you may ignore it without problem, but a population segment of 50 million seems to warrant a bit of attention.

But what do I know about marketing? Not much.
JerryLogan
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:55:58 AM permalink
I wonder how we should be marketing to the Muslim market.....
EvenBob
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October 27th, 2010 at 10:35:15 AM permalink
This is an English speaking country, why are we catering to people who are too lazy to learn the language? Its like they want us to learn Spanish so they don't have to be bothered.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
pacomartin
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:24:16 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


Is the Latino market different than the regular market? Aren't you being a racist? What would you say if I'd talked about the importance of marketing to the 'White market'?



I don't think I am being racist. In standard government terminology, latino is considered an ethnicity, and not a race.
"Non-Hispanic White" is still 65% of the population, so it is usually understood that a broad marketing plan would automatically cater to these people.

Quote: JerryLogan

I wonder how we should be marketing to the Muslim market.....


The Qur'an prohibits gambling (games of chance involving money) and insuring ones' health or property (also considered a game of chance). The hadith, in addition to prohibiting gambling (games of chance), also prohibits bayu al-gharar (trading in risk, where the Arabic word gharar is taken to mean "risk" or excessive uncertainty).

Obviously some countries like the Sultanate of Dubai have purchased half of "City Center" in Las Vegas. I would call that "excessive risk".
Doc
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:25:00 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

This is an English speaking country, why are we catering to people who are too lazy to learn the language? Its like they want us to learn Spanish so they don't have to be bothered.

Well, in the area of marketing, we would probably do it because we want their money. Mr. Martin's initial post just points out a projection that Univision will overtake the four Anglo networks. I interpreted that as a suggestion that those networks, for financial reasons, might find it desirable to carve a larger niche in this growing market segment. Am I hearing you correctly that you would prefer to pass up on that money? I've already admitted that I don't know much about marketing -- is that your field, and is this your recommended marketing strategy?
pacomartin
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:42:44 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Well, in the area of marketing, we would probably do it because we want their money. Mr. Martin's initial post just points out a projection that Univision will overtake the four Anglo networks. I interpreted that as a suggestion that those networks, for financial reasons, might find it desirable to carve a larger niche in this growing market segment.



Most anglo TV programming caters to Spanish speakers with (at the very least) captioning in Spanish. In Mexico adult movies are captioned, while children's movies are dubbed.

But Univision is finding a market in news, sports (particularly soccer), variety entertainment and children's programming. The forecasted dominance of Univision also says a lot about the fragmentation of the Anglo television market.

Casinos have been talking about marketing to Latinos for decades. Some of the local casinos (like Jerry's Nugget) play Mexican music every Saturday night.
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 12:53:21 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I don't think I am being racist. In standard government terminology, latino is considered an ethnicity, and not a race.
"Non-Hispanic White" is still 65% of the population, so it is usually understood that a broad marketing plan would automatically cater to these people.


The Qur'an prohibits gambling (games of chance involving money) and insuring ones' health or property (also considered a game of chance). The hadith, in addition to prohibiting gambling (games of chance), also prohibits bayu al-gharar (trading in risk, where the Arabic word gharar is taken to mean "risk" or excessive uncertainty).

Obviously some countries like the Sultanate of Dubai have purchased half of "City Center" in Las Vegas. I would call that "excessive risk".



Well, there's actually no such thing as "race", but that doesn't mean that just about everyone doesn't THINK they know what it is.

That's interesting about the Qur'an. It's true that every insurance company is like a giant casino, with the house edge almost always being much higher than any game you can find in a "traditional" casino. So how do Muslims in the US handle things like mandatory auto liability insurance, and mandatory-participation health plans? What about ObamaCare? Will they/do they go along with mandatory insurance, or will they/do they refuse to buy it?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
pacomartin
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October 27th, 2010 at 1:13:33 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321


Well, there's actually no such thing as "race", but that doesn't mean that just about everyone doesn't THINK they know what it is.



Well geneticists have pretty much given up on defining "race". The subclassifications of human beings into 3 or 5 races had no biological basis. But the color terms do have their genesis as far back as 4th century BCE.

However Johann (1752–1840), one of the founders of what some call scientific racism theories, came up with the five color typology for humans:
1) white people (the Caucasian or white race),
2) black people (the Ethiopian or black race),
3) yellow people (the Mongolian or yellow race),
4) cinnamon-brown or flame colored people (the American or red race) and
5) brown people (the Malay or brown race).

Although yellow and red have pretty much dropped out of educated discussion, the other colors remain (despite some effort to eradicate all of the colors).

Census simply uses a "self definition" requirement. There is no rigidly formal definition.
JerryLogan
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October 27th, 2010 at 1:34:29 PM permalink
Does the "Qur'an" also prohibit suicide bombings, hate speech, falsifying documents in order to get access to other countries and companies, lacking tolerance for those of other faiths, lying, and chopping off other people's heads?

It's Brunei.
cardshark
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:18:08 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

It's true that every insurance company is like a giant casino, with the house edge almost always being much higher than any game you can find in a "traditional" casino.



Whoa, whoa, whoa. Can you back that up?
thecesspit
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:28:27 PM permalink
The UK police use Identity Code (IC) for outward appearance (the appearance of the person based on skin colour, features), and the 16+1 for Self-defined Ethnicity (the persons own definition of their ethnicity).

Some more liberal people of my acquaintance don't quite understand how important the IC is for identifying people and tried to have it replaced with the SDE 16+1 from software I was working on. The more pragmatic of that group asked them how to get a dead body to tell them their ethinicity. IC classification stayed.

That's not to say the SDE is not useful, it's just that there is also a use for outward classification, even if it tells you nothing about how the person live(s/d) and their cultural background (which is also important for ongoing investigation)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:29:52 PM permalink
Quote: cardshark

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Can you back that up?



I would expect the Insurance company's edge on my $1000 car insurance is greater than the 1.41% edge I get from the house when I throw the dice.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
EvenBob
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:38:29 PM permalink
Quote: cardshark

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Can you back that up?



An insurance company takes your money and hopes they never have to pay you, just like a casino. The insurance company is the gambler in this case, the customer is buying a sure thing.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
JerryLogan
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:49:46 PM permalink
Are you kidding....He's a walking, talking assertion machine that aims to impress those who are gullible.
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 2:57:28 PM permalink
Quote: cardshark

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Can you back that up?



Certainly. First of all, we can agree that every purchase of insurance is a bet that the event to be insured against WILL happen; if you buy fire insurance, you are betting that your house WILL burn down; car insurance, that you WILL have a car accident. The house (the insurance company) books this bet, effectively taking the "don't". If you buy fire insurance, and your house never burns down, the insurance company wins; if it does burn down, you win, in each case, the "winner" being the one that ends up with the money.

Profits from insurance company wagers have to cover the entire spectrum of the costs the company incurs. Those costs are paperwork, administration, and the actuarial costs of the risk involved. In a casino, the house charges its highest "vig" on the bets that have the potential to pay off the largest amounts, like keno or progressive slots, to insure themselves against the risk of several big winners at once. The insurance company charges a high vig because the potential payoff vs. the premium they collect in any one period is large; when the player (customer) wins (his house burns down), much more money changes hands then when the house (company) wins (the premium is collected, and the house does not burn down).

And yes, anyone buying life insurance is, in effect, betting that they WILL die.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:04:54 PM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Are you kidding....He's a walking, talking assertion machine that aims to impress those who are gullible.



Quick, Jerry. Brain exercise for you. What was the original assertion in this regard? Who made it? (Hint: it wasn't me.) Can you identify and restate it? If so (and I will be VERY impressed if you can) can you refute it?

Or would you just prefer to blather some more? (I don't give any credit for blathering, though, and you ARE failing my English class, so you might want to take that into consideration.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
EvenBob
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:17:50 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Certainly. First of all, we can agree that every purchase of insurance is a bet that the event to be insured against WILL happen; if you buy fire insurance, you are betting that your house WILL burn down; car insurance, that you WILL have a car accident. .



I can't agree at all with that! I have fire insurance not because I'm betting my house will burn down, quite the contrary. I'm hoping against hope that it DOESN't burn down, but if it does, I'm covered. The insurance company is the one betting it won't happen, I'm not betting on anything. Buying insurance isn't gambling for the customer, NOT buying it is...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
7outlineaway
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:22:55 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I would expect the Insurance company's edge on my $1000 car insurance is greater than the 1.41% edge I get from the house when I throw the dice.



In recent quarters Progressive Corporation, for one, has reported net profit margins in the range of 5-7% (source: Google Finance). This can be considered the "vig", and basically comes from premiums, plus income from investing these premiums, minus claims payments, salaries and other overhead. As a publicly-owned company anyone can get a piece of this by buying PGR stock.

Most of PGR's business is car insurance, so it is a cleaner example than broader insurance companies are. Perhaps Berkshire Hathaway breaks out Geico's profits separately but I'm too lazy to check.

I would say the difference between insurance and gambling is twofold: (1) the buyer of insurance is contractually (homeowners', under the terms of a mortgage) or legally (car liability) obligated to purchase it, and/or (2) the buyer does NOT want the insured-against event to take place. Nobody who buys life insurance wants to die, or perhaps more correctly, nobody wants to die solely because he purchased life insurance.
SanchoPanza
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:28:24 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

The forecasted dominance of Univision also says a lot about the fragmentation of the Anglo television market.


Even more significant is what the forecast says about the stranglehold that two companies hold over one of the most powerful mediums on two continents.
Doc
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:28:54 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

... Profits from insurance company wagers have to cover the entire spectrum of the costs the company incurs. ...

I see (at least) two major ways that a casino and the insurance "wagers" are quite different.

First is the timing. In most instances, the insurance premium is paid well in advance of a claim. The insurance company has the opportunity to invest the funds and generate additional revenue prior to having to pay off the "winner." With the exception of a few sports wagers, I don't think the casinos generally have this opportunity to exploit the time value of money, at least not for the same periods of time. Of course, that and their expected investment success all go into establishing their premiums. Investments of premiums are a major part of an insurance company's operations.

Second, the insurance wagers do not necessarily last until final resolution. The fact that people often stop paying premiums prior to collecting benefits is somewhat akin to casino players taking down bets, most of which typically stay in play until they win or lose.

Edit: While I was typing (this keeps happening grrr!) 7outlineaway beat me to the "investment" point and posted two other good examples.
JerryLogan
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October 27th, 2010 at 3:38:29 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Quick, Jerry. Brain exercise for you. What was the original assertion in this regard? Who made it? (Hint: it wasn't me.) Can you identify and restate it? If so (and I will be VERY impressed if you can) can you refute it?

Or would you just prefer to blather some more? (I don't give any credit for blathering, though, and you ARE failing my English class, so you might want to take that into consideration.)



What's the difference who was first and who was second and third? All that matters is your neurotic need to assert anything just to make believe you know something about everything. And regardless of your scramble to save your ass, you got taken out to the woodshed again in this thread. All too common, hey?
Nareed
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:18:12 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Back to the original intention of this thread

The September figures at the airport are posted. The loss of 15K passengers that Mexicana brought in last September seems to have been partially replaced. Aeromexico, Viva-airbus, and Continental's numbers are up (but not by 15K passengers).



Can't say I'm surprised. Typically Aeromexico charges more than Mexicana, ergo some people who'd have gone to vegas now won't.

Viva Aerobus (whose fleet is all Boeing) is reasonably priced, but only flies to Vgeas out of Monterrey. Lastly mexicana had a flight from Guadalajara to Vegas, that market is not being served anymore.

On the other hand Volaris has flights to LAX from both Toluca (Mexico City for all intents and purposes) and Guadalajara. Volaris is supposed to be low cost, though it has raised prices since it began to operate out of the Mex City airport. anyway, it's cheap enough to LAX, and from there it's easy to get to Vegas either by low-cost Southwest or even by bus. That possibly is amking up a bit of the shortfall, but it would be hard to tell.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:22:54 PM permalink
Quote: 7outlineaway

In recent quarters Progressive Corporation, for one, has reported net profit margins in the range of 5-7% (source: Google Finance). This can be considered the "vig", and basically comes from premiums, plus income from investing these premiums, minus claims payments, salaries and other overhead. As a publicly-owned company anyone can get a piece of this by buying PGR stock.

Most of PGR's business is car insurance, so it is a cleaner example than broader insurance companies are. Perhaps Berkshire Hathaway breaks out Geico's profits separately but I'm too lazy to check.

I would say the difference between insurance and gambling is twofold: (1) the buyer of insurance is contractually (homeowners', under the terms of a mortgage) or legally (car liability) obligated to purchase it, and/or (2) the buyer does NOT want the insured-against event to take place. Nobody who buys life insurance wants to die, or perhaps more correctly, nobody wants to die solely because he purchased life insurance.



Actually, the vig would be GROSS profit, not NET profit. Premiums have to pay the expense side of the balance sheet, then there has to be a profit AFTER that as well.

Not all forms of insurance are compulsory. In fact, most aren't.

It really doesn't matter whether the gambler/buyer wants the insured-against event to take place. The buyer profits if the event takes place; the seller profits when it doesn't.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:30:19 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

I see (at least) two major ways that a casino and the insurance "wagers" are quite different.

First is the timing. In most instances, the insurance premium is paid well in advance of a claim. The insurance company has the opportunity to invest the funds and generate additional revenue prior to having to pay off the "winner." With the exception of a few sports wagers, I don't think the casinos generally have this opportunity to exploit the time value of money, at least not for the same periods of time. Of course, that and their expected investment success all go into establishing their premiums. Investments of premiums are a major part of an insurance company's operations.

Second, the insurance wagers do not necessarily last until final resolution. The fact that people often stop paying premiums prior to collecting benefits is somewhat akin to casino players taking down bets, most of which typically stay in play until they win or lose.

Edit: While I was typing (this keeps happening grrr!) 7outlineaway beat me to the "investment" point and posted two other good examples.



The original point was whether the Muslim religion was correct to forbid buying insurance because it is a wager/bet/etc.

My response to that was that it definitely IS a wager, in that two parties are betting on two reciprocal outcomes, and each agrees to pay the other a certain sum of money if the respective outcomes occur. The timespan between the outcomes and the wagers doesn't really matter, in terms of definition.

One casino analogy would be a hard eight bet. The amount of time before the bet is resolved is unknown, but there are two outcomes: the bet loses or the bet wins. In the case of a loss, the player says he will allow the casino to pick up his bet (he can always pick it up, or ask that it be picked up, before any given roll). The casino says that if the hard eight is rolled, it will pay the player nine chips. Each outcome is a contingency, and each participant is aware of the consequences of each contingency.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
pacomartin
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October 27th, 2010 at 6:46:09 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

The original point was whether the Muslim religion was correct to forbid buying insurance because it is a wager/bet/etc.



Takaful ( التكافل) is an Islamic insurance concept which is grounded in Islamic muamalat (banking transactions), observing the rules and regulations of Islamic law. This concept has been practised in various forms for over 1400 years
mkl654321
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October 27th, 2010 at 7:02:10 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Takaful ( ÇáÊßÇÝá) is an Islamic insurance concept which is grounded in Islamic muamalat (banking transactions), observing the rules and regulations of Islamic law. This concept has been practised in various forms for over 1400 years



So I'll ask the question again--how do Muslims handle it when it becomes compulsory by law to buy some kind of insurance, such as auto liability insurance?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
rxwine
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October 27th, 2010 at 8:15:57 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

The Qur'an prohibits gambling (games of chance involving money) and insuring ones' health or property (also considered a game of chance). The hadith, in addition to prohibiting gambling (games of chance), also prohibits bayu al-gharar (trading in risk, where the Arabic word gharar is taken to mean "risk" or excessive uncertainty).



Maybe Turkey is not representive either, but I hit a sequential royal flush in a casino in Adana. Maybe none of the people in the casino were Muslims -- well, at least none would admit to it probably. But I'm not so sure some weren't in the closet (so to speak), and might tell you differently outside of that area.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
rxwine
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October 27th, 2010 at 8:20:13 PM permalink
(I threw in the part about the royal, because that's mainly the reason I remember playing that day)
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
thecesspit
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October 27th, 2010 at 8:57:35 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Maybe Turkey is not representive either, but I hit a sequential royal flush in a casino in Adana. Maybe none of the people in the casino were Muslims -- well, at least none would admit to it probably. But I'm not so sure some weren't in the closet (so to speak), and might tell you differently outside of that area.



Like Christians, I am sure there are Muslims who don't follow the letter of their religion...
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
EvenBob
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October 27th, 2010 at 9:07:15 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Like Christians, I am sure there are Muslims who don't follow the letter of their religion...



I've seen Muslims in the casino in Detroit, its not uncommon.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
SanchoPanza
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October 28th, 2010 at 7:44:45 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

So I'll ask the question again--how do Muslims handle it when it becomes compulsory by law to buy some kind of insurance, such as auto liability insurance?


Maybe they get a dispensation or exemption. It doesn't seem as if anyone is saying anything about this. And then, how about the new national so-called compulsory health insurance?
pacomartin
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October 28th, 2010 at 8:03:02 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

So I'll ask the question again--how do Muslims handle it when it becomes compulsory by law to buy some kind of insurance, such as auto liability insurance?



I assume that some people try and bring suits against compulsory actions that seem to violate religious principles. In general (in matters of government) the court sides with the law. Examples include:

Wearing of robes, masks, veils, or other disguises - this has mainly involved the Muslim religion, and Muslim women specifically. The courts have ruled unconstitutional the idea that due to bank robberies, thefts, and crimes at malls, officers can enforce crime prevention ordinances outlawing the wearing of veils, robes, or other disguises if it is done in the name of religion.

Exemption from military service on religious grounds - the Court has never held that the free exercise clause requires the government to exempt people on these grounds.

Autopsies - some religions, like the Amish and others, do not condone the law enforcement practice of conducting an autopsy to determine the cause of death.

Refusing to pay taxes, abide by motor safety laws, carry liability insurance, etc. - this has mainly involved Amish and other groups who won't place reflecting triangles on their buggies, etc., and the court has ruled there will be no exceptions.


Sacrifice of small animals (chickens, goats, ducks, etc.) - this has mainly involved satanist groups or the Santeria movement (an African religion mostly confined to the Hialeah suburb of Miami). The satanists haven't won much, but the Santeria practice has been protected due to the court's viewing it as a central part of their religion.
pacomartin
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October 28th, 2010 at 8:20:04 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed


Typically Aeromexico charges more than Mexicana, ergo some people who'd have gone to vegas now won't.

Viva Aerobus (whose fleet is all Boeing) is reasonably priced, but only flies to Vgeas out of Monterrey. Lastly mexicana had a flight from Guadalajara to Vegas, that market is not being served anymore.



Within the past year, Arizona-based US Airways has dramatically increased direct service to Mexico from Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. I suspect that Mexican tourists are coming via this gateway. It is difficult to see in the McCarran reports because USAirways has cut service to Vegas so dramatically since last year, that this relatively small increase of tourists from Mexico is lost in the overall data.

The additional service to destinations such as Mexico City, Cancun and Guadalajara come in response to a 19.2% year-over-year increase in international air traffic to Mexico. Much of that demand comes from the United States. In part, demand is driven by a spike in business traffic to cities such as Guadalajara and Mexico City.

With the increased demand with the bankruptcy of Mexicana, U.S. carriers have found a lucrative niche.
JerryLogan
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October 28th, 2010 at 8:45:14 AM permalink
You cannot be of sane mind and take a trip to Mexico at the same time.
Doc
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October 28th, 2010 at 10:32:24 AM permalink
Ahh! Just can't wait for mkl's reply that Jerry must visit south of the border quite frequently. Here it comes.....
mkl654321
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October 28th, 2010 at 11:36:49 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

Ahh! Just can't wait for mkl's reply that Jerry must visit south of the border quite frequently. Here it comes.....



No, too obvious. Besides, it's pretty clear that Jerry has been far south of a very different kind of border for some time now.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
pacomartin
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March 19th, 2011 at 6:04:26 PM permalink
It looks like Mexicana is bankrupt permanently. Attempts at revival have been abandoned. The fleet will be sold.

No US carrier is flying from Vegas to Mexico. Nonstop cities have been reduced to Mexico City, Monterrey, and Hermosillo. Carriers are Aeromexico, and Vivaaerobus.

However, starting in April Volaris is going to start up non-stops to Guadalajara. If you live in Las Vegas I urge you to think about taking a few days and going to Guadalajara. The nonstops are 3:10 to 3:20 each way and round trip tickets are as low as $317 with taxes.

Dining is from casual, to the spectacular like Santo Coyote restuarant,and Cocina Ochenta y Ocho (irritating website).


La Fonda de San Miguel (near downtown) is a chance to eat in a restored nunnery from the 17th century.

A local favorite is a "drowned sandwich" or "torta ahogada". You have to try one (very messy).


You have your share of European inspired culture. Hospicio Cabañas and the cathedral are the high points of downtown (and a World Heritage site)





There is a great nightlife, the chain of cuban bars named after the famed Havana club, La Bodeguita del medio has one of it's best locations in Guadalajara. The locations in Puerto Vallarta and Playa del Carmen (Cancun) are more for white people.

HOTELS
The best are Villa Ganz and Quinta Real if you have money. Very upscale but more corporate is Camino Real Guadalajara .

Fiesta Americana if you want corporate style.

Hotel Frances was built a decade before the Mayflower landed (they have changed the mattresses). Hotel San Francisco low cost (US$50) hotel near the city center, geared at tourists and Mexican businessmen. I stayed there, but it can be noisy. Hotel de Mendoza is probably your best bet for downtown.

Hotel Lafayette is in a good location. It's a Mexican business hotel. It is not highly rated, but I like the location. Probably your best cross between safety, comfort, and good price ($65). Nearby is Centro Magno is a tiny shopping center. There are restaurants and clubs within walking distance.

There is a fairly large commercial district with huge hotels that I haven't mentioned. The feel would be much closer to Los Angeles.

Orientation
It's a little less than 3 miles from the Cathedral in the center of the city to Plaza Minerva where the Fiesta Americana and the more expensive Quinta Real are located. The streets Vallarta and Hidalgo are lines with excellent restaurants and nice clubs. It is cheaper to stay downtown to be closer to the main tourist sites, but dining is more casual and most of the clubs are gay downtown. If you stay in Hotel Frances they have a straight club and dining in the downstairs where you will probably feel comfortable.

Taxis are metered (ask before you get in if the meter is working) so they won't be very expensive. The airport is far from town, but it's not bad if the meter is working. Always ask, and don't believe him if he tells you there is a special airport surcharge at night.

The nearby communities of Tlaquepaque and Tonala are excellent places to shop. Tlaquepaque is much more upscale, and Tonala is cheaper. Zapopan is both the name of an old city center, and of a sprawling suburban city that is larger than Guadalajara itself.

The town of Tequila Mexico is nearby. There are buses, and a Tequila train on Saturdays. It's a charming little town and a world heritage site.


Small casino in Guadalajara.
Nareed
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March 19th, 2011 at 7:47:18 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Small casino in Guadalajara.



That should give Las Vegans a good laugh.

BTW Mexicana doesn't have much of a fleet. About 8 or 10 planes, the rest were leased.

A deal fell through, but last I heard there were other interested groups. Someone may take it over yet. If that doesn't happen soon, it won't happen at all. The other airlines are expanding to fill Mexicana's vacancies, and even Aviacsa should be back up soon.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
pacomartin
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March 19th, 2011 at 11:09:56 PM permalink
Guadalajara Language Center offers 20 hours of tutoring for $255, as opposed a 20 hour class with up to 6 people over the course of 5 days for $199.

It's in the town of Tlaquepaque which is basically an upscale suburb of Guadalajara now (4.5 miles from downtown Guadalajara. They offer airport pickup and return for $45, which is pretty good since it is 13 miles each way.A taxi may be about the same, but a representative from the school should be more helpful. Rooms with a family are as low as $22 a night. Since that price includes three meals, don't expect luxury. These schools are used to older students as well as young ones. There will be plenty of middle aged professor types as well as seniors. Still the bulk of students for long stay will be about age 20. For that price you may get boarding type accommodations where three or more bedrooms have been turned over for rent, and you will be sharing a toilet.

Four blocks away is El Parian, which was built in 1878, a block square cantina ringed by botanero restaurants and inside has a huge courtyard with central bandstand for entertainment. Botaneros are like appetizers in a basket. Cheese, sausages, crackers, etc (good beer food). Stick to beer and tequila in Mexico, as wine and other liquors are pricey.

El Parian


We ate at Casa Fuerte which is top notch.

Stores are very high end for Mexico. Tequila, arts and crafts, and antiques are specialties. Great for walking around, but expensive place to buy. The best advice is to learn what you want, and then go to Tonala (5 miles) to buy.


Tlaquepaque will feel more safe, and high end, but less urban, gritty and exciting than Guadalajara proper. Not much nightlife here, although it is a short taxi ride away.

The school has a 4 bedroom house with a single full bath that they will rent for US$500 for the first week (cable TV and internet). Hotels are expensive. About 5 blocks from the school is a boutique hotel for US $hundreds per night called Villa of Dreams. Other hotels will be expensive and geared for Northern Americans. Quinta Don Jose is one of the more moderate places for US$80-US$150.

If taking classes is not your first idea for a vacation, you should reconsider. The teachers are almost always very nice. It's a competitive job, so you will get people who know grammar, and not someone who simply speaks Spanish. Often you go out with the teachers to their favorite bars or cafes. You will probably pay, but that pretty much happens in a poor country anywhere. Do not expect the teacher to speak fluent English. The best cheat sheet for $5

Quote: emergency plans


In general it is a good idea to have a few nice plastic coated copies of your passport and driver's license in Mexico. For unofficial uses uses hand out these copies (hotels, etc.,) and protest that you left the original in your hotel. Some people hand these to policeman, to avoid the very common shakedowns of gringos. If it gets too intense you can always pull out the real one. But in most cases the policeman is looking for quick easy money, and is not going to drag you to the police station or actually hurt you. But he will put on his most threatening act. You may want to hand him the plastic identification and a little money. The main thing is he can't hold your identification to sell it back to you at whatever price he thinks is sufficient.

Although it is very unlikely, you need emergency plans. Should you lose your passport have a backup plan since you won't be able to board your flight.
Know where the US consulate is located. Like any government office you will spend a long time here, and it won't be open on weekends. If your shook up or have been hurt, report to the police, you may not have the time to get your photographs, and report there from 8:00 am and 11:30 am, Monday through Friday. If your emergency cash stash is low, you will have to get the US $135 for your replacement passport. They say to report the crime to the police in Mexico which takes a long time.

Should this happen on a weekend, and you need to get back, then Serena Terminal Hotel is a 600 room hotel at the bus station (3 miles from Tlaqquepaque center) for US$42 a night (Libre A Zapotlanejo 1500, Tlaquepaque 45540, Mexico). You can stay there if necessary, and board a 24 hour bus to Nogales and try to get into the USA. It would help if your wife or a friend has a copy of your passport information, and can contact the Consulate in Nogales . While on the bus perhaps they can get through the paperwork. A one way plane ticket to Tijuana is cheap, but they won't let you do that without a passport even though you think TJ is part of Mexico.



The most expensive way to get to the (UNESCO World Heritage Center), the town of Tequila (44 miles from Tlaquepaque) is the Tequila Express train at about US$100 per person. A city bus is about $5 each way. Most people negotiate a car for 5 or 6 hours for roughly US$12 per hour. The school usually organizes tours or has phone numbers.

The cheapest way to call the USA is to load skype onto a thumb drive and put some money on your account. There are a lot of places where you can cheaply rent computers by the hour, and you can use skype to call a number in the USA. You can purchase a throwaway cell phone in Mexico to call local Mexican numbers.
pacomartin
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April 1st, 2011 at 4:45:58 AM permalink
Volaris began flying today
Nareed
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April 1st, 2011 at 7:54:47 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Volaris began flying today



Hate to brake it to you, but Volaris has been flying since 2005.

Otherwise that flight to Monterrey I took with them 2 years ago would have been really weird.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
allenwalker
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November 1st, 2011 at 1:46:26 PM permalink
"Mexico's second-largest airline Interjet is expanding to the U.S. market with nonstop San Antonio-Mexico City service beginning Dec. 1, the airline announced Monday."Article
Nareed
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November 1st, 2011 at 3:20:01 PM permalink
Quote: allenwalker

"Mexico's second-largest airline Interjet is expanding to the U.S. market with nonstop San Antonio-Mexico City service beginning Dec. 1, the airline announced Monday."Article



I heard their ad today on the way to work.

It's about time. Some years ago they attempted flights to Guatemala and, I think, Havana, which were later dropped. I understand Havana, as Cuba's promoted as a cheap place to spend a vacation, but Guatemala is he poor mans' Mexico <duck!> I was honestly stunned Volaris beat them to choice destinations like Chicago, LA, SF and Vegas.

As for Mexicana, it's still a zombie.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Nareed
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November 15th, 2011 at 7:43:33 AM permalink
It seems finally that a group of investors will be cleared to take over Mexicana. I wonder why they don't just start a new airline and offer to buy the brand from the corpse of the old one...

Anyway, such reports have been made before, so I'm not hopeful for anything. Still, there has been some talk about what will happen with mexicana's slots and gates now. When it ceased operations, they were given on a temporary basis to Voalris, Viva Aerobus and maybe others (I think Interjet owned slots and gates bought from the late Aerocalifornia).

Of course if Mexicana rises from the ashes it won't come back into operations at full strenght and capacity. As I understand, it leased most of it fleet and owned only a few airplanes. I know the leased jets were returned to the owners, but I've no idea what became of the owned jets. In any case, Aeromexico, Volaris and others ahve taken a big bite of Mexicana's market share already. So it won't occupy all its slots and gates at once. it meay try to, naturally, if only to keep some fo the competition out, but it would do better, IMO, to sell some positions on the least profitable routes.

We'll see. I would be anything but surprised if this is yet another red herring.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
pacomartin
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November 15th, 2011 at 1:23:56 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

It seems finally that a group of investors will be cleared to take over Mexicana. I wonder why they don't just start a new airline and offer to buy the brand from the corpse of the old one..Of course if Mexicana rises from the ashes it won't come back into operations at full strenght and capacity. As I understand, it leased most of it fleet and owned only a few airplanes.



In 2010 the number of passengers carried on domestic flights by the industry stood at about the same level as in 2009 when there were 24.4 million passengers on domestic flights. Domestic flights peaked in 2008. For 2011, passenger traffic might increase 5.0%, which would lead to 25.7 million passengers carried on domestic routes. So the entire domestic industry in Mexico is equivalent to the number of passengers carried by Jetblue or AlaskaAir.

Commercial Aircraft in Mexico have dropped from 345 in 2007 to 213 in the second quarter of 2011. Similar reductions were noted in the USA.

I am surprised there is a significant piece of business for them to return to.


# Airline Age
57 Aeroméxico 8.8 years
47 Aeroméxico Connect 9.0
28 Volaris 4.0
25 Interjet 7.0
16 Aeromar 15.2 (regional aircraft only - former Mexicana)
15 Vivaaerobus 22.7 (tied in with Ryanair in Europe)
11 Magnicharters 26.2 (Boeing 737's domestic market for tourism; i,e, Beach resorts)
6 Estafeta 20.7 (Cargo Boeing 737 and Canadian Regional jets)
4 Aerounión 28.5 (Cargo 4 Airbus A300)
4 Mas Air 8.0 (Cargo 4 Boeing 767's)
213 total

# Aircraft Age comment
39 Embraer 145 10.2 year regional (Aeroméxico Connect)
8 Embraer 190 3.1 years regional (Aeroméxico Connect)
14 ATR-42 15.9 years regional (Aeromar)
4 Bombardier CRJ-200LR 13.0 regional
4 Airbus B4 28.5 old
1 MD-87 23.0 old

24 Airbus A-319 4.0 years
29 Airbus A-320 6.6
75 Boeing 737 13.8
11 Boeing 767 15.3
4 Boeing 777 7.5
213 total

From http://www.sct.gob.mx/fileadmin/DireccionesGrales/DGAC/Estad%EDstica%20DGAC/Estadistica%202011/Flota/FLOTA_AEREA_MEXICANA_STATS_JUN_2011%20%283%29.pdf ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'> sct.gob.mx
Nareed
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November 15th, 2011 at 3:18:00 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I am surprised there is a significant piece of business for them to return to.



If they evict Volaris and Viva from the airport, there'll be plenty of slots available for high-demand daily flights to Monterrey and Guadalajara. In the holidays lots of flights to Acapulco, Vallarta and Cancun.

Volaris could go back to Toluca, and Viva could set up there. But as convenient as I find Toluca for day trips, even for overnight stays, it's not that convenient to a lot of people.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
pacomartin
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November 19th, 2011 at 6:22:27 PM permalink
I've checked some statistics from Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes. It looks like the six Mexican firms only controlled 25% of the Mexican-USA traffic in 2010. Even with Mexicana suspending operations in August of 2010, that firm still had half of the Mexican firms "US-Mex air traffic" for the year.

So while the Mexican firms are scrambling to fill in the void left by Mexicana, a lot of the business is being taken over by US firms.
Mexicana also had 9.5% of the traffic to Canada, and Aeromexico only had 0.5%. Canadian airlines have 90%.

The traffic between Mexico and USA is 17.8 million passengers per year, which is nearly as large as the 24 million domestic passengers within Mexico. Canada-Mexico traffic is about 1.7 million passengers.

I imagine a reconstituted Mexicana will try to reclaim some of that US-Mex traffic, and be less concerned about domestic trips which have probably been easily taken over by the newer firms of Volaris and Viva.

US-Mexico Air traffic in thousands of passengers
Empresas Estadounidenses Mexicanas
Mexicana de Aviación 2,162
Aerovías de México (Aeroméxico) 1,333
Vuela (Volaris) 578
Aerolitoral (Aeroméxico Connect) 281
Aeroenlaces (Viva Aerobus) 52
Aeromar 0.80
American Airlines 2,793
Continental 2,369
Us Air 1,796
Delta 1,419
Alaska Airlines 1,198
Express jet 1,076
United Airlines 799
Frontier Airlines 313
Jet Blue Air 305
USA 3000 (Brenda USA 3000) 292
American Eagle 232
Airtran Airways 199
Mn Airlines Llc 176
Northwest 164
Spirit Airlines 125
Mesa Airlines 98
Horizont Air 47
Compass 17
Skywest 14
Virgin America, Inc 2
Comair 0.9
Empresas Mexicanas 13,431 4,405
pacomartin
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November 20th, 2011 at 7:17:12 AM permalink
Southwest is going to begin flying to Mexico with it's Air Tran subsidiary.

The new AirTran flights to Mexico include San Antonio to Mexico City and Cancun beginning next May 2012, and Orange County, Calif., to Mexico City and Cabo San Lucas beginning in June.
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