why is the Arctic ice cap disappearing?
Poll
 | 8 votes (24.24%) | ||
| | 17 votes (51.51%) | ||
| | 6 votes (18.18%) | ||
| | 2 votes (6.06%) |
33 members have voted
August 29th, 2012 at 10:23:08 AM
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August 29th, 2012 at 10:42:41 AM
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"Ice" has ebbed and flowed for years. At one point not only was there a thick ice cap, but glaciers halfway down North America. At another you could walk from Siberia to Alaska (many thousands of years before Tina Fey said you could see Siberia from her home.) At one point South America and Africa were connected. The earth has been warmer in the past than it is now. Then there were ice ages where it was far cooler.
Climate has *never* been stable.
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This space left blank so AGW believers can say, "SHUT UP AND LISTENT TO THE SCIENTISTS AND THEIR CONSENSUS."
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Climate has *never* been stable.
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This space left blank so AGW believers can say, "SHUT UP AND LISTENT TO THE SCIENTISTS AND THEIR CONSENSUS."
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All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
August 29th, 2012 at 10:51:29 AM
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My theory is that the warming and cooling are more a function of solar activity. We had a few cycles of "mini-ice ages" in the 17th, and 19th centuries. I think we are due for another in the 21st.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 29th, 2012 at 10:58:41 AM
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Really?
You're gonna look at 6 years out of the history of the planet and try to draw some conclusions?
You're gonna look at 6 years out of the history of the planet and try to draw some conclusions?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32:08 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanClimate has *never* been stable.
I agree that climate has never been stable. In the last 400 years there were three cooling periods one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming. Each one took a huge toll in human life.
Even if this warming phase is not primarily caused by man's activity, the phase seems very real. The industrial activity is very unlikely to be having no effect. So money is on either it being the primary cause, or an aggravating factor. The smart money is not that industrial activity is inconsequential.
Our natural state is probably a few million of us running naked through the grassland, dying of disease and with a good probability of being eaten by a large predator. It is not 7 billion of us driving cars and buying groceries.
I fail to see why the "Que Sera Sera" argument is valid.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:49:49 AM
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Times change. I am with paco on this one.
When I was a young man and had a pain, I would just shake it off as the cost of fighting or sports.
Now i wonder if something is growing inside men. LOL
When I was a young man and had a pain, I would just shake it off as the cost of fighting or sports.
Now i wonder if something is growing inside men. LOL
August 29th, 2012 at 5:39:51 PM
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have to agree here... 6 years does NOT a trend make. Try 50 years.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
August 29th, 2012 at 5:45:24 PM
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I don't know... have the Pit call Surveillance and ask them.
August 29th, 2012 at 5:51:21 PM
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Although its Wikipedia search this phrase Retreat of glaciers since 1850. This article has a few pix of recent examples.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
August 29th, 2012 at 6:31:44 PM
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For me it comes down to:
1) Is there global warming?
Yes, the ice caps are melting.
2) Do green house gasses contribute to global warming?
Yes, for decades we have known that green house gasses capture radiation and reheat the earth with some radiation that would have otherwise escaped into space.
3) Have humans contributed additional green house gasses to the atmosphere?
Yes, the industrial age has resulted in significant amounts of fossil fuel consumption and when you consider the reduction of rain forests and increases in agriculture production to meet demands it is clear that humans are adding more green house gasses to the atmosphere than we are removing.
It seems all that is left is to decide, how significant of an impact are we having, and what is the difference in cost between doing nothing and correcting it? I think we are having a significant impact and the cost to fix it is minor, but I am sure we can all argue about values indefinitely.
1) Is there global warming?
Yes, the ice caps are melting.
2) Do green house gasses contribute to global warming?
Yes, for decades we have known that green house gasses capture radiation and reheat the earth with some radiation that would have otherwise escaped into space.
3) Have humans contributed additional green house gasses to the atmosphere?
Yes, the industrial age has resulted in significant amounts of fossil fuel consumption and when you consider the reduction of rain forests and increases in agriculture production to meet demands it is clear that humans are adding more green house gasses to the atmosphere than we are removing.
It seems all that is left is to decide, how significant of an impact are we having, and what is the difference in cost between doing nothing and correcting it? I think we are having a significant impact and the cost to fix it is minor, but I am sure we can all argue about values indefinitely.
August 29th, 2012 at 6:35:37 PM
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I am a believer in the fact that the earth has been heating up and cooling for millions of years. I also believe that we, the human race may have contributed to accelerating this. I dont think the two viewpoints have to be mutually exclusive.
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August 29th, 2012 at 7:37:50 PM
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Don't expect too much to change. The new weather pattern will help the USA and European and Russian farms with an added rain supply.
August 30th, 2012 at 5:28:07 AM
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Since the last ice age the earth has been warming and the ice caps have been receding otherwise half of north america would be under ice. This is a natural cycle that the earth goes through. Is man contributing, probably in some small unmeasurable way. Even if he's speeding up the cycle by a small percent, the earth's warming has been going on for 20,000 years since the last ice age. It's an argument that those in power will use to instill fear so they can raise taxes, raise revenue for themselves. In the big picture we are so small and insignificant on this planet and in its history, just a blink of an eye in it's life.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."-Ben Franklin
August 30th, 2012 at 5:36:24 AM
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I think it was almost 20 years ago but New Scientist posted a chart of dates of annual high and low in Alaska and a photo of a dirt road next to dirt fields versus the same snowy road through snow covered fields taken ten years apart.
Is it a trend? Should farmers in Alaska plant more crops and plant them earlier?
Who knows... most of us don't live long enough to care about long range trends.
Is it a trend? Should farmers in Alaska plant more crops and plant them earlier?
Who knows... most of us don't live long enough to care about long range trends.
August 30th, 2012 at 5:43:40 AM
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Quote: NickyDimSince the last ice age the earth has been warming and the ice caps have been receding otherwise half of north america would be under ice. This is a natural cycle that the earth goes through. Is man contributing, probably in some small unmeasurable way. Even if he's speeding up the cycle by a small percent, the earth's warming has been going on for 20,000 years since the last ice age. It's an argument that those in power will use to instill fear so they can raise taxes, raise revenue for themselves. In the big picture we are so small and insignificant on this planet and in its history, just a blink of an eye in it's life.
George Carlin explains it well. One day the earth will shake mankind off like a dok shaking off fleas.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
September 9th, 2013 at 5:14:49 AM
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"Apparently" does not cut it, according to the Canadian government:Quote: renoApparently 2012 has been a record year for arctic ice cap shrinkage as measured by satellites: Are humans to blame? Should we take baby steps to reduce fossil fuel consumption? Should we take radical steps to reduce fossil fuel consumption? Is the whole thing a hoax?
"A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent. The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.
"Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores. The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back.
"In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’. The pause – which has now been accepted as real by every major climate research centre – is important, because the models’ predictions of ever-increasing global temperatures have made many of the world’s economies divert billions of pounds into ‘green’ measures to counter climate change.
"Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.
"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
September 9th, 2013 at 5:50:54 AM
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This is where arctic ice is sitting today, well below the 30 year average, way above the 2012 levels. Clearly 2012 was a terrible year for arctic ice (if you're a polar bear or a yacht).
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 9th, 2013 at 7:19:28 AM
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Got any figures from longer than 30 years ago?Quote: boymimboThis is where arctic ice is sitting today, well below the 30 year average.
September 9th, 2013 at 7:45:06 AM
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Quote: pacomartinI agree that climate has never been stable. In the last 400 years there were three cooling periods one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming. Each one took a huge toll in human life.
Even if this warming phase is not primarily caused by man's activity, the phase seems very real. The industrial activity is very unlikely to be having no effect. So money is on either it being the primary cause, or an aggravating factor. The smart money is not that industrial activity is inconsequential.
Our natural state is probably a few million of us running naked through the grassland, dying of disease and with a good probability of being eaten by a large predator. It is not 7 billion of us driving cars and buying groceries.
I fail to see why the "Que Sera Sera" argument is valid.
Really well thought out post, Paco! I agree with every factor you're considering here. However, living in Florida, where a significant amount of the state would disappear if the ice caps continue to melt, I'd like to see an organized response to maintaining their integrity. I think there is sufficient evidence that there's a causal link between man's industrial activity and record low observed masses, that it's not just cyclic, and that it can be mitigated through responsible stewardship of the planet.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 9th, 2013 at 8:12:22 AM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaPerhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.
"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
This completely contradicts statistics from the shipping industry: some 204 cargo ships have traversed the Arctic Ocean in summer 2013 on a route that was impassable up until 3 years ago. The Wall Street Journal attributes the new Arctic shipping lanes to climate change.
Perhaps the shipping industry is lying about the lack of ice in the Arctic. I doubt it.
September 9th, 2013 at 8:41:44 AM
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Quote: reno
Perhaps the shipping industry is lying about the lack of ice in the Arctic. I doubt it.
Am I the only one to understand that one article is discussing the Northeast Passage while the other is referring to the Northwest Passage?
September 9th, 2013 at 9:38:44 AM
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Actually, there are now 587 applications to use the Northern Sea Passage (which runs on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean) with 495 acceptances for this year so far. There are 64 ships RIGHT now in the Northern Sea Passage. The Northern Sea Passage is governed by Russia and is open for business.
The NorthWest passage (which runs on the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean). The first yacht traversed this only last year.
The NorthWest passage (which runs on the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean). The first yacht traversed this only last year.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 9th, 2013 at 9:43:20 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabs... living in Florida, where a significant amount of the state would disappear if the ice caps continue to melt...
Am I the only one that just had an urge to go burn some tires based on the above?
;)
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
September 9th, 2013 at 9:48:19 AM
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lol...I have no defense to offer. Florida is seriously effed up no matter what criteria you use. Working to fix it, whether politically, environmentally, or culturally, has been like, well, stemming the tide. Doesn't stop me from trying.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
September 9th, 2013 at 12:39:43 PM
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Quote: FaceAm I the only one that just had an urge to go burn some tires based on the above?
;)
I love the smell of burning tires in the morning..
Sorry, I'm watching 'Apocalypse Now Redux' on
Netflix and I couldn't help myself..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 9th, 2013 at 12:41:17 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI love the smell of burning tires in the morning..
Sorry, I'm watching 'Apocalypse Now Redux' on
Netflix and I couldn't help myself..
I watched the regular version on there and they cut the scene were Sheen steals the surfboard! I mean, come on!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
September 10th, 2013 at 8:50:17 AM
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Quote: SanchoPanza"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
Sancho-- this tabloid Daily Mail article you linked to has been debunked here. This article is even better. And this article on the Daily Mail's climate change coverage is also worthwhile.
Don't get me wrong, The Daily Mail is a great place to read about UFOs and Kim Kardashian, but as tabloids go, they haven't devoted nearly enough ink to bigfoot sightings.
September 10th, 2013 at 8:55:04 AM
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Quote: renoQuote: SanchoPanza"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
Sancho-- this tabloid Daily Mail article you linked to has been debunked here. This article is even better. And this article on the Daily Mail's climate change coverage is also worthwhile.
Don't get me wrong, The Daily Mail is a great place to read about UFOs and Kim Kardashian, but as tabloids go, they haven't devoted nearly enough ink to bigfoot sightings.
Getting serious news from the Daily Mail is like expecting decent mathematical coverage of gambling from John Patrick.
It's a terrible, terrible paper for real news. Not because of any bias or anti-bias you may think I have against it's politics, but mostly because its poorly researched puff pieces and shouty opinions, with an online presence of celebrity spotting and gossip. It's pretty good at the latter, it seems.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
September 10th, 2013 at 12:01:44 PM
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Quote: renothey haven't devoted nearly enough ink to bigfoot sightings.
He's on TV, doing those beef jerky commercials.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 10th, 2013 at 2:27:12 PM
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Those three pieces are hardly "debunking" in any real sense of the word. They all agree that The Mail's main statistic on the ice cover is accurate. After all, it does come from the Canadian government. Also notable is arbitrary choice of 30 years of ice cover data. Thirty years in climatological terms is like a nanosecond in a year or even a decade. Furthermore, not one of the criticisms even mentions the closed Northwest Passage and the frozen shipping.Quote: renoSancho-- this tabloid Daily Mail article you linked to has been debunked here. This article is even better. And this article on the Daily Mail's climate change coverage is also worthwhile.Quote: SanchoPanza"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
September 10th, 2013 at 3:56:55 PM
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I didn't know which image to use, but I eventually I chose one as it matches up with the predictions I have made. Most of these charts I had never seen before as I tend to get my info from NASA, NOAA. So here it the link to all the chart. Choose the one you think is most accurate.
http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?_adv_prop=image&fr=uh3_my_web_gs&va=solar+cycle+chart
http://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?_adv_prop=image&fr=uh3_my_web_gs&va=solar+cycle+chart
Buffering...
September 10th, 2013 at 3:57:08 PM
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deleted
Last edited by: Tanko on Mar 10, 2016
September 10th, 2013 at 4:49:06 PM
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That graph is entirely wrong. We're in the middle of Cycle 25, and the average is well over 60 so far this year, six times higher than your "prediction".
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 10th, 2013 at 4:53:53 PM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaThose three pieces are hardly "debunking" in any real sense of the word. They all agree that The Mail's main statistic on the ice cover is accurate. After all, it does come from the Canadian government. Also notable is arbitrary choice of 30 years of ice cover data. Thirty years in climatological terms is like a nanosecond in a year or even a decade. Furthermore, not one of the criticisms even mentions the closed Northwest Passage and the frozen shipping.Quote: renoSancho-- this tabloid Daily Mail article you linked to has been debunked here. This article is even better. And this article on the Daily Mail's climate change coverage is also worthwhile.Quote: SanchoPanza"Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer." dailymail
- It's not arbitrary. Sea ice couldn't be measured accurately before 1979 as there were no satellites monitoring it.
- The first yacht made the Northwest passage sailing last year. So if a number of yachts become stuck, that's human stupidity. It's always been frozen. Shipping opened up in the Northern Sea passage over Russia.
- Sea ice is still very much below the averages for the past 30 years.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 10th, 2013 at 5:18:19 PM
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Quote: boymimbo
- It's not arbitrary. Sea ice couldn't be measured accurately before 1979 as there were no satellites monitoring it.
That defines it as arbitrary. The fact that man developed a way to measure things in 1979 has zero to do with when weather patterns happen.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
September 10th, 2013 at 5:35:19 PM
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Quote: boymimboThat graph is entirely wrong. We're in the middle of Cycle 25, and the average is well over 60 so far this year, six times higher than your "prediction".
Then NASA has it wrong.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
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September 10th, 2013 at 7:26:09 PM
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Researchers from places like Lamont-Doherty were monitoring sea bottoms through drilling and core samples for decades well before that.Quote: boymimboSea ice couldn't be measured accurately before 1979 as there were no satellites monitoring it.
September 10th, 2013 at 7:32:48 PM
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The measurement being disputed is the sea ice coverage in area over the northern polar region. It was estimated well through in the 50s, 60s, and 70s through observation and became completely accurate when Nimbus 7 was launched.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 10th, 2013 at 7:34:45 PM
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It's too hot!
Don't you guys pay any attention to the guy that invented the internet?
The guy that beat Bush the first time but FL had to take thier shoes off to count the votes? (They miscounted)
The guy that sold his tv networks for millions to al jazzerra?
You know All Gore. He hit it on the head.Humans did it poluting the ozone layer.
KB1
Don't you guys pay any attention to the guy that invented the internet?
The guy that beat Bush the first time but FL had to take thier shoes off to count the votes? (They miscounted)
The guy that sold his tv networks for millions to al jazzerra?
You know All Gore. He hit it on the head.Humans did it poluting the ozone layer.
KB1
September 10th, 2013 at 7:42:53 PM
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Human beings are consumers of the Earth.
Always have been, always will be.
Most things on this site are up for debate, but this one is not.
KB1
Always have been, always will be.
Most things on this site are up for debate, but this one is not.
KB1
September 10th, 2013 at 8:05:24 PM
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[claps for a valuable contribution].
Humans did pollute the ozone layer. The Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987, during the Reagan era. Every country in the world ratified it, despite the cost. CFC production worldwide has been reduced by 98%. Refridgerants worldwide were switched from damaging CFCs to refridgerants that don't hurt the atmosphere. Unfortunately CFCs stay in the atmosphere for decades and they don't estimate a full recovery until late in this century.
Industry tried to stop the Protocol from being signed.
- Dupont (who made 25% of the world's CFCs at the time) published full page ads in major newspapers denouncing the science.
- The industry warned of economic chaos if CFCs were phased out, with costs in the US of $135 billion and the entire industry folding, with effects on inflation and unemployment..
- Industry paid a well known editor and a leading atmospheric scientist to state that CFC science was just a bunch of theories and was unproven.
- Congressman Doolittle of California sparked a debate in congress, and had this to say: "'m not going to get involved in a mumbo-jumbo of peer-reviewed documents. There's a politics within the scientific community, where they're all too intimidated to speak out once someone has staked out a position...And under this Congress, we're going to get to the truth and not just the academic politics." He quoted none other than Fred Singer, who is also was one of eminent global warming skeptics.
- Industry used data from a few US cities to attempt to show that UV levels were decreasing.
- There were accusations that scientists were bending the truth in order to get more funding.
And so on and so forth.
But science got it right, because back in the 80s, there was no huge political divide between left and right to question what essentially was true. Skin cancers were on the rise, and ozone depletion was being seen. It was a cause and effect.
This is why i have little doubt on global warming. The same arguments and tactics were being used against science and CFCs 30 years ago. It's a much bigger scale now because the issues have been politicized to a great extent and the internet exists to hype mistruths.
Humans did pollute the ozone layer. The Montreal Protocol was signed in 1987, during the Reagan era. Every country in the world ratified it, despite the cost. CFC production worldwide has been reduced by 98%. Refridgerants worldwide were switched from damaging CFCs to refridgerants that don't hurt the atmosphere. Unfortunately CFCs stay in the atmosphere for decades and they don't estimate a full recovery until late in this century.
Industry tried to stop the Protocol from being signed.
- Dupont (who made 25% of the world's CFCs at the time) published full page ads in major newspapers denouncing the science.
- The industry warned of economic chaos if CFCs were phased out, with costs in the US of $135 billion and the entire industry folding, with effects on inflation and unemployment..
- Industry paid a well known editor and a leading atmospheric scientist to state that CFC science was just a bunch of theories and was unproven.
- Congressman Doolittle of California sparked a debate in congress, and had this to say: "'m not going to get involved in a mumbo-jumbo of peer-reviewed documents. There's a politics within the scientific community, where they're all too intimidated to speak out once someone has staked out a position...And under this Congress, we're going to get to the truth and not just the academic politics." He quoted none other than Fred Singer, who is also was one of eminent global warming skeptics.
- Industry used data from a few US cities to attempt to show that UV levels were decreasing.
- There were accusations that scientists were bending the truth in order to get more funding.
And so on and so forth.
But science got it right, because back in the 80s, there was no huge political divide between left and right to question what essentially was true. Skin cancers were on the rise, and ozone depletion was being seen. It was a cause and effect.
This is why i have little doubt on global warming. The same arguments and tactics were being used against science and CFCs 30 years ago. It's a much bigger scale now because the issues have been politicized to a great extent and the internet exists to hype mistruths.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
September 10th, 2013 at 8:24:46 PM
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no laughs? boymimbo
Do you believe in the future that we will see more and more skin cancers?
Do you believe the Earth will be scorched at some point?
KB1
Do you believe in the future that we will see more and more skin cancers?
Do you believe the Earth will be scorched at some point?
KB1
September 10th, 2013 at 9:25:27 PM
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Are you using weasel language in the OP TOPIC? Arctic can mean North Polar (Geographic) or BOTH (climate def.)... just not South ONLY.
So are BOTH or just the N.P region "dissapearing" at this eggagerated rate?
So are BOTH or just the N.P region "dissapearing" at this eggagerated rate?
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
September 19th, 2013 at 2:31:21 PM
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It's just a lull....
http://news.yahoo.com/warming-lull-haunts-authors-key-145659600.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CSdbDtSHB4ARXbQtDMD
http://news.yahoo.com/warming-lull-haunts-authors-key-145659600.html;_ylt=A2KJ3CSdbDtSHB4ARXbQtDMD
Buffering...
