Poll

7 votes (63.63%)
5 votes (45.45%)
4 votes (36.36%)
2 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (18.18%)
3 votes (27.27%)

11 members have voted

98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
  • Threads: 52
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July 14th, 2012 at 5:27:42 PM permalink
All three are just treading water, The mkt. is OP. China is slacking, so commodities/AU looking dim, as consumption weakens.
Therefore the shorts are leading into the rally, propping up mkt. pricing on all three fronts, equities, AU, Basic Metals.
Europe just kicking the can down the road, that WILL cause financial damage.
Reports of the fiscal cliff are under stated.
Over here, we got Obamacare, and expirations on investment incentives. Not good for taxpayers... double whammy and a buzzcut type haircut coming.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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July 14th, 2012 at 5:43:51 PM permalink
Quote: MakingBook

Comparing the stock market to a casino is nuts.


Day trading is just like casino gambling. Advantage play is possible, but it's akin to BJ counting without knowing how many decks there are and when they are shuffled. Other than that, it's just random chance.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
scire
scire
Joined: Jun 16, 2012
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 73
July 14th, 2012 at 9:58:10 PM permalink
It is not random chance. All the traders on the NYSE and other x's would not be so well compensated for counting "Black Jack" with someone elses $$. Right now is a dangerous time to be "all in". I sensed a long 'risk off' period and the 205 point spike Friday puzzled me. I'm looking for an-- extended "Risk on" period along with a lower Volitility Index like the 1st 3 months of this year. A day traders dream. You can, during the right time and it is often extended for quite a while, make $$ on "day spreads" on good stocks. It can be like a LONG LONG LONG hot shoot @ craps. Placing a stock and taking it down after a "hit" then Place another order for another stock etc --always keeping an eye on the news and more...if such a period is restarting, like up until the election, it will be pure "Gold" That said ....2013 ?????? now that's a "crap shoot" to 'see' at this point in time.

...and yes {intuition/market wisdom} - works as a part of trading-- when the trend of a rally is truly running. Was the 205 spike a start..??????
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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July 15th, 2012 at 12:46:40 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the stock market becomes negative EV if you churn your portfolio enough; you give up all your progress by paying commissions



As another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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July 15th, 2012 at 1:42:21 AM permalink
Quote: scire

It is not random chance. All the traders on the NYSE and other x's would not be so well compensated for counting "Black Jack" with someone elses $$.


Serious traders work, at least, short term (weeks) - day trading is just glorified gambling. With some patterns in the chaos that can be spotted, but that's all there is to it.
You only help reinforce my point by describing obvious gambling behaviors.

Although gambling with someone else's money is always +EV: you get paid a share of your winnings, but don't have to chime in for your losses. If I ever find two good chumps who want me to day trade with their money, I'm going to take it up and start opposite betting.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 15th, 2012 at 3:28:36 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

As another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.



It used to be worse, when you didnt get immediate confirmation of the trade and didn't set a price limit. Not so long ago I had it happen to me, that a stock was trading at, say, $100 and you wanted that price and sold it. Later to find out that you only got $92 for it [say]. So you go back to the history of that stock and find out, on that day, for a brief period of time it was trading at that price. You could be sure, in fact, you would get the lowest price of the day when selling, and vice versa, in those days.

They trained me. Out of habit, I always now set a limit when buying or selling even today.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Gabes22
Gabes22
Joined: Jul 19, 2011
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July 15th, 2012 at 6:35:49 AM permalink
I think it's a short term spike. There were 6 straight down days leading up to Friday, and because of that investors saw some short term buying opportunities.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
scire
scire
Joined: Jun 16, 2012
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 73
July 15th, 2012 at 12:29:31 PM permalink
P90---Yes there are "gaming similarities"-your point OK-- but not "random chance". One can research a stock and make a determination as to whether or not it is suitable for "day trading" if one has been taught what to look for. This is why I mentioned "wisdom" of the market. This wisdom is based on knowledge acquired-- based on many variables. Random chance is like flipping a coin - there is no chance of a "wise" decision as to how the coin will land on any given roll but one can "handicap" a stock just as one can the "ponies" and so it is not random chance---but there is a % of likelihood one can lose on a daytrade on any particular stock.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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July 15th, 2012 at 11:51:12 PM permalink
All I know is I put a decent sum of money in the market on Feb. 27th, mostly in some casino stocks (LVS, WYNN, MGM) after seeing the ridiculous revenue growth in Macau (I put less in MGM since they have a much smaller ratio of their business in Macau). Also bought some SPY to balance it out. I re-bought several times as the prices kept dropping, hoping to dollar-cost-average myself to bigger gains.

I'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even (technically 0.26% in the green).

I shouldn't try to "play" the stock market, I should just buy and hold SPY, I'm not sure what I was thinking. I was thinking "oh I'm a smart guy, I'm in tune with the casino industry, having a casino in Macau is like printing money! I gotta get on this train before it leaves the next stop!"

At this point, with the world economy not looking so hot, I'm thinking of cutting my losses. But I don't need the money right now, so I might hold on to it and hope to recover. MGM and LVS are just killing me (WYNN not as bad). I should stick to counting cards, at least I know I'll make money at that in the long term.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 16th, 2012 at 12:53:19 AM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even



The elusiveness of full economic recovery means you are not alone. Nonetheless, the best bet is that this was and is not a bad time to be buying stocks. Don't expect it to look like it unless we get full recovery.

As someone recently wisely said, the longer we have to wait for a recovery that never comes, the more likely we are to just stumble on to another recession by natural course. Not so sure that isn't what is going on. Need that crystal ball to know whether we are going deeper or now coming out of it! The general stance of the market seems to say, we don't know.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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