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11 members have voted
Therefore the shorts are leading into the rally, propping up mkt. pricing on all three fronts, equities, AU, Basic Metals.
Europe just kicking the can down the road, that WILL cause financial damage.
Reports of the fiscal cliff are under stated.
Over here, we got Obamacare, and expirations on investment incentives. Not good for taxpayers... double whammy and a buzzcut type haircut coming.
Quote: MakingBookComparing the stock market to a casino is nuts.
Day trading is just like casino gambling. Advantage play is possible, but it's akin to BJ counting without knowing how many decks there are and when they are shuffled. Other than that, it's just random chance.
...and yes {intuition/market wisdom} - works as a part of trading-- when the trend of a rally is truly running. Was the 205 spike a start..??????
Quote: odiousgambitthe stock market becomes negative EV if you churn your portfolio enough; you give up all your progress by paying commissions
As another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.
Quote: scireIt is not random chance. All the traders on the NYSE and other x's would not be so well compensated for counting "Black Jack" with someone elses $$.
Serious traders work, at least, short term (weeks) - day trading is just glorified gambling. With some patterns in the chaos that can be spotted, but that's all there is to it.
You only help reinforce my point by describing obvious gambling behaviors.
Although gambling with someone else's money is always +EV: you get paid a share of your winnings, but don't have to chime in for your losses. If I ever find two good chumps who want me to day trade with their money, I'm going to take it up and start opposite betting.
Quote: SOOPOOAs another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.
It used to be worse, when you didnt get immediate confirmation of the trade and didn't set a price limit. Not so long ago I had it happen to me, that a stock was trading at, say, $100 and you wanted that price and sold it. Later to find out that you only got $92 for it [say]. So you go back to the history of that stock and find out, on that day, for a brief period of time it was trading at that price. You could be sure, in fact, you would get the lowest price of the day when selling, and vice versa, in those days.
They trained me. Out of habit, I always now set a limit when buying or selling even today.
I'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even (technically 0.26% in the green).
I shouldn't try to "play" the stock market, I should just buy and hold SPY, I'm not sure what I was thinking. I was thinking "oh I'm a smart guy, I'm in tune with the casino industry, having a casino in Macau is like printing money! I gotta get on this train before it leaves the next stop!"
At this point, with the world economy not looking so hot, I'm thinking of cutting my losses. But I don't need the money right now, so I might hold on to it and hope to recover. MGM and LVS are just killing me (WYNN not as bad). I should stick to counting cards, at least I know I'll make money at that in the long term.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even
The elusiveness of full economic recovery means you are not alone. Nonetheless, the best bet is that this was and is not a bad time to be buying stocks. Don't expect it to look like it unless we get full recovery.
As someone recently wisely said, the longer we have to wait for a recovery that never comes, the more likely we are to just stumble on to another recession by natural course. Not so sure that isn't what is going on. Need that crystal ball to know whether we are going deeper or now coming out of it! The general stance of the market seems to say, we don't know.