Poll

7 votes (63.63%)
5 votes (45.45%)
4 votes (36.36%)
2 votes (18.18%)
2 votes (18.18%)
3 votes (27.27%)

11 members have voted

scire
scire
Joined: Jun 16, 2012
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July 13th, 2012 at 1:48:45 PM permalink
Just up or down and-- short reason.

Commodities up or down-- short reason

Gold up or down-- short reason
P90
P90
Joined: Jan 8, 2011
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July 13th, 2012 at 2:01:44 PM permalink
If I knew, I would be buying or selling - not posting short reasons on a forum.
Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
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July 13th, 2012 at 3:12:36 PM permalink
Without a time period, the answer is 'all of the above'
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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July 13th, 2012 at 3:18:55 PM permalink
It's just like craps.
You can play the Pass or the Don't Pass, but either way, you can win in the short term, but will likely lose if you play the game too long.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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July 13th, 2012 at 5:21:40 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

It's just like craps.
You can play the Pass or the Don't Pass, but either way, you can win in the short term, but will likely lose if you play the game too long.



This isn't really accurate IMHO....even the S&P500 over long periods of time is a positive EV whereas craps over long periods of time is a negative EV.

Forget about negative EV over the long term it if you pick an manage a basket of individual equities....

Way too much hype in my opinion about how the equity markets are like a casino, there is no comparison.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
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July 13th, 2012 at 6:42:13 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

This isn't really accurate IMHO....even the S&P500 over long periods of time is a positive EV whereas craps over long periods of time is a negative EV.

Forget about negative EV over the long term it if you pick an manage a basket of individual equities....

Way too much hype in my opinion about how the equity markets are like a casino, there is no comparison.



I certainly agree with your assessment that the major indexes are a positive EV over time, whereas craps will always be negative.

But, unless you are a major player, you are playing the game at a huge disadvantage to the Goldman Sachs' etc. But that would be a whole another thread on a different board.............
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
MrV
MrV
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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July 13th, 2012 at 6:43:05 PM permalink
Down.

The economy is still lousy, both nationally and world-wide.

The crisis in Europe is far from resolved.

FWIW, I liquidated most of my stock portfolio; I plan to buy in after it tanks again, which it likely will.
"What, me worry?"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 14th, 2012 at 5:32:46 AM permalink
the stock market becomes negative EV if you churn your portfolio enough; you give up all your progress by paying commissions
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
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July 14th, 2012 at 1:34:22 PM permalink
In the world of sub $10 commissions at Schwab, E*Trade, Fidelity, etc. if you are going negative EV based on commissions, you may not have a big enough bankroll to be investing in the first place.
MakingBook
MakingBook
Joined: Sep 19, 2011
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  • Posts: 496
July 14th, 2012 at 1:51:04 PM permalink
It's easy to become a millionaire in the stock market.
Regular investment in well diversified equities over time will grow to one million dollars.

It's easy to become a millionaire in a casino.
Start with two million, and play craps- two million will become one million in short order.

Comparing the stock market to a casino is nuts.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

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