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11 members have voted
Commodities up or down-- short reason
Gold up or down-- short reason
You can play the Pass or the Don't Pass, but either way, you can win in the short term, but will likely lose if you play the game too long.
Quote: RaleighCrapsIt's just like craps.
You can play the Pass or the Don't Pass, but either way, you can win in the short term, but will likely lose if you play the game too long.
This isn't really accurate IMHO....even the S&P500 over long periods of time is a positive EV whereas craps over long periods of time is a negative EV.
Forget about negative EV over the long term it if you pick an manage a basket of individual equities....
Way too much hype in my opinion about how the equity markets are like a casino, there is no comparison.
Quote: ParadigmThis isn't really accurate IMHO....even the S&P500 over long periods of time is a positive EV whereas craps over long periods of time is a negative EV.
Forget about negative EV over the long term it if you pick an manage a basket of individual equities....
Way too much hype in my opinion about how the equity markets are like a casino, there is no comparison.
I certainly agree with your assessment that the major indexes are a positive EV over time, whereas craps will always be negative.
But, unless you are a major player, you are playing the game at a huge disadvantage to the Goldman Sachs' etc. But that would be a whole another thread on a different board.............
The economy is still lousy, both nationally and world-wide.
The crisis in Europe is far from resolved.
FWIW, I liquidated most of my stock portfolio; I plan to buy in after it tanks again, which it likely will.
Regular investment in well diversified equities over time will grow to one million dollars.
It's easy to become a millionaire in a casino.
Start with two million, and play craps- two million will become one million in short order.
Comparing the stock market to a casino is nuts.
Therefore the shorts are leading into the rally, propping up mkt. pricing on all three fronts, equities, AU, Basic Metals.
Europe just kicking the can down the road, that WILL cause financial damage.
Reports of the fiscal cliff are under stated.
Over here, we got Obamacare, and expirations on investment incentives. Not good for taxpayers... double whammy and a buzzcut type haircut coming.
Quote: MakingBookComparing the stock market to a casino is nuts.
Day trading is just like casino gambling. Advantage play is possible, but it's akin to BJ counting without knowing how many decks there are and when they are shuffled. Other than that, it's just random chance.
...and yes {intuition/market wisdom} - works as a part of trading-- when the trend of a rally is truly running. Was the 205 spike a start..??????
Quote: odiousgambitthe stock market becomes negative EV if you churn your portfolio enough; you give up all your progress by paying commissions
As another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.
Quote: scireIt is not random chance. All the traders on the NYSE and other x's would not be so well compensated for counting "Black Jack" with someone elses $$.
Serious traders work, at least, short term (weeks) - day trading is just glorified gambling. With some patterns in the chaos that can be spotted, but that's all there is to it.
You only help reinforce my point by describing obvious gambling behaviors.
Although gambling with someone else's money is always +EV: you get paid a share of your winnings, but don't have to chime in for your losses. If I ever find two good chumps who want me to day trade with their money, I'm going to take it up and start opposite betting.
Quote: SOOPOOAs another poster has mentioned, commissions are very low now. But 'us regular folk' also pay a hidden fee by always paying the higher price in a spread and being paid the lower price in a spread. If you click on "buy" for IBM, you may pay $195.00, but if you click on sell, you may get $194.90. The difference depends upon how actively traded the stock is, and how big your trade is, and luck, too.
It used to be worse, when you didnt get immediate confirmation of the trade and didn't set a price limit. Not so long ago I had it happen to me, that a stock was trading at, say, $100 and you wanted that price and sold it. Later to find out that you only got $92 for it [say]. So you go back to the history of that stock and find out, on that day, for a brief period of time it was trading at that price. You could be sure, in fact, you would get the lowest price of the day when selling, and vice versa, in those days.
They trained me. Out of habit, I always now set a limit when buying or selling even today.
I'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even (technically 0.26% in the green).
I shouldn't try to "play" the stock market, I should just buy and hold SPY, I'm not sure what I was thinking. I was thinking "oh I'm a smart guy, I'm in tune with the casino industry, having a casino in Macau is like printing money! I gotta get on this train before it leaves the next stop!"
At this point, with the world economy not looking so hot, I'm thinking of cutting my losses. But I don't need the money right now, so I might hold on to it and hope to recover. MGM and LVS are just killing me (WYNN not as bad). I should stick to counting cards, at least I know I'll make money at that in the long term.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI'm down 15% and if I had just stuck to the SPY, I'd be about even
The elusiveness of full economic recovery means you are not alone. Nonetheless, the best bet is that this was and is not a bad time to be buying stocks. Don't expect it to look like it unless we get full recovery.
As someone recently wisely said, the longer we have to wait for a recovery that never comes, the more likely we are to just stumble on to another recession by natural course. Not so sure that isn't what is going on. Need that crystal ball to know whether we are going deeper or now coming out of it! The general stance of the market seems to say, we don't know.
Quote: AcesAndEights... I put a decent sum of money in the market on Feb. 27th ... I'm down 15% ....
As a retiree, I keep most of my funds in cash accounts. I have only a modest amount of stocks, with a current value equivalent to about six months of my regular net income (pension and social security.) I essentially never buy or sell, just hold and watch. I rode the up and way-way-down of the dot com boom and bust and the up and down of the housing boom and bust. I am down by half since a peak in 1999, up almost 90% since a nadir in 2002, very slightly down since a pre-housing-crash peak in 2007, and up about 15% since the end of last February when AcesAndEights made his buy. If I had reinvested dividends over the years, I would be up since that latest peak in 2007. Even without reinvesting dividends, I am up from where I was in 1997 before the dot com boom.
I may look at my portfolio value every few days, just from curiosity, but I only record end-of-month values, dividends, and the few sales that occurred due to corporate changes. If I tried to buy and sell daily, weekly, monthly, or whatever based on my own guesses, the guesses of "advisors", or the semi-random noise I see in the market, I would probably go nuts. By owning only a modest amount of uninsured investments and just holding, I don't get panicky even in a big slide like 2000-2002, and I certainly don't go bonkers when the Dow jumps or drops a few hundred points.
Quote: scireTBP I agree. That is why I prefer day trading during this "period" of time. One could just sit in the market years ago but real hard for me to do that now. I'm up 6k in the last 8 months making small gains aprox $200.00 -$300.00 a trade. I have not traded at all in the last few months. Getting antsy!! and nervous as well.
I hate it- because even with my "long-term" portfolio, the prospect of losing 20-40% (or worse) at least on paper, makes me sick to even think about- hence my inclination to *want* to trade out, although it's almost impossible to catch the top and who knows where we'll be when the correction occurs? There's also the (optimistic!) scenario that things will work out over the next few years, and we can all breathe a sigh of relief. To not be invested at that point will really put you behind the 8-ball...
...decisions, decisions. I suppose one of my main decision points will be the election: I firmly believe without a change in leadership this economy will at best sputter along and at worse, succumb to a double-dip. Job growth is slowing and just not at the necessary levels to bring in the revenue to help right the ship. Increasing taxes at this time is suicide. Obamacare will cost more than projected and the business uncertainty will continue. But who can predict?
Quote: AcesAndEightsAt this point, with the world economy not looking so hot, I'm thinking of cutting my losses. But I don't need the money right now, so I might hold on to it and hope to recover. MGM and LVS are just killing me (WYNN not as bad). I should stick to counting cards, at least I know I'll make money at that in the long term.
MGM is a dog. It is projected to lose money this year and next with the losses that keep being revised in the wrong direction (i.e. going up, not down). Sell that one now at $9+. Mgmt stubbed their toe big time with City Center, which caused their credibility to go right down the tubes.....along with their balance sheet. Saying you are in a better position than CZR isn't saying much and that is really all they can say right now.
LVS & WYNN are both good companies. I prefer LVS below $40 since it has more diversification beyond just Macau (i.e. Singapore mainly, but also convention space in LV & Sands in PA give it a better presence for US turnaround when it happens). Plus they just got the deferral on their additional Cotai project, which shows they are smart enought not to move forward in a bad market. I really am not gonna like it if they commit to that European Vegas project in Spain, but it appears they are likely to pull back on that as well.
If you are gonna stay in the space and long term I think it is a good place to be, I would concentrate position in LVS. If it holds $36 it is a screaming buy and I may have to re-enter it at that point.
Heres a list of stocks by abbreviation: some you know others you might not.
AAPL AMX CAT CNI COH GWR IBM MCD NLY SCCO T THI
There are no gaming stocks here, and only APPL & IBM are Tech stocks.
I have cyclicly invested in these since 2004, three have never been sold, one was sold in early 2008, and recently bought again.
you wouldnt want to fall into any of those crevices, I'm thinking.
PS: on July 13, when this thread started, Dow was @ 12777

is down 530 today. Oil dropped below $40
at one point today. Is the sky falling?
Quote: EvenBobThe market is down 7% for the week, the Dow
is down 530 today. Oil dropped below $40
at one point today. Is the sky falling?
I looked, sky is not falling.
Great day to have a good % of your money in 'cash accts'.
But then there are are those other accts........
Now let's see if the bubble affecting collectible Ferrari prices collapses.
Quote: MrVHello, overdue correction.
Now let's see if the bubble affecting collectible Ferrari prices collapses.
I'm betting we see 20-30% on this correction, depending on what the fed decides to do/not do in Sept. Either way, once the free fall ends, we flat line for a few months.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI'm betting we see 20-30% on this correction, depending on what the fed decides to do/not do in Sept. Either way, once the free fall ends, we flat line for a few months.
we're pretty much at a 10% correction now and I have been buying
20% - it's possible, but if so, TINA* is dead. So what alternative is looking good now?
Well, maybe the sheer momentum ... and the fear of catching the falling knife... will take us there. Can't be ruled out.
30% will mean I missed the bottom, I won't have any purchasing power left. In any case a flat line for a few months will be OK as long as it's like 2009 with a steady climb back. Longer than that and I will get hurt.
* http://thereformedbroker.com/2013/02/05/t-i-n-a-or-the-sellers-dilemma/
I'm more into illiquid investments right now. Making a couple real estate plays. But maybe I'll buy more stocks if prices go down a lot. Or at least rebalance.
As with most things, timing is everything.
Quote: MrVI helped fund the purchase of my 456 GT with profits from the sale of MGM and LVS stock.
As with most things, timing is everything.
"Your 456 GT"...,...,,
I'll race you in my Camry.
In reverse only, you can pick the road.
I could tell you a story about racing backwards.
But it might scare you away,
And you probably wouldn't believe it anyway ;-)
Edit,
Sparkles said no, no more racing backwards.
I have to retract my dare.
I did call R------ and have a laugh.
He was a passenger, just once, when this happened.
He's never been the same....
Or a chunk of it.
Ah, gambling stocks!
Yeah, I made a good profit, and applied it towards the purchase of an entry level exotic.
Such is life.
As my Gambling God Alfred E. Neuman says:"What, me worry?"
Quote: teddysI'm really sick of stocks. Of course I would not be saying that if I had picked winners. But I picked a bunch of individual stocks which are down a lot. So it goes . . .
I'm more into illiquid investments right now. Making a couple real estate plays.
Unsolicited advice time.
Do you get illegal-level inside information from somebody on individual stocks? No, it appears. Then quit buying them. It's the age of ETFs. Don't know which ones to buy? Google it, like "S&P 500 etf" ... pops right up. Just make sure the fund has hundreds of millions of dollars in it at least and isn't weird like an etf for bbq'd pickle companies. Still don't know what to do? Call Vanguard or T Rowe Price and have them walk you through setting yourself up with a brokerage account you can access online. Or just set it up online. If working, pile into any 401k type stuff for sure especially if the company matches some of it.
If you have a decent horizon [more than 5 years] and use dollar cost averaging + diversification, you can't really miss. It's practically unheard of to lose money that way over 10 yrs and literally unheard of if over 15, Great Depression or Great Recession included. Those are well-known facts, and I'll add to that the remarkable outcome of a 30 year record and the absolute miracle of a 40 year one [that I hope to see, I was dead broke in 1982]
Quote:But maybe I'll buy more stocks if prices go down a lot. Or at least rebalance.
You're a gambler and probably want to do market timing. You'll never get the stamp of approval from any financial adviser for that. Rebalancing though is very similar and an adviser will sing your praises for it. So you get your gambling fix and praise for it all at the same time! Rebalance sir! Now is the time! [but spread it out for dollar cost averaging]
at 3pm EST. FOX business is covering it without commercial
breaks. Some are predicting insane mode in the last 15 min.
Quote: teddysOf course I would not be saying that if I had picked winners.
Same thing said in casinos everyday.
This is more evidence that we are not experiencing capitalism.Quote: EvenBobDown over 1000 this morning, headed that way again
at 3pm EST. FOX business is covering it without commercial
breaks. Some are predicting insane mode in the last 15 min.
The DOW does not lose 7% of it's value in ten minutes. The banks [hedge funds] that were bailed out against the will of the people in '08 now are the largest manipulators of equity prices in the world.
Capitalism would allow bad banks to fail and good ones to be resurrected in their place. They are now just weapons of economic destruction for the PTB waging war by other means.
The people be damned. A lot of retirement funds got spanked hard today. Those were real dollars, earned, and then evaporated by the moneyed interests.
There is some extinction level events going on in the currency wars that aren't being portrayed openly or honestly . The petro dollar is floundering but so is every other fiat. The central banks are going "all in".
Quote: petroglyphCapitalism would allow bad banks to fail and good ones to be resurrected in their place.
I just don't see how it can work well with too few and too big at the same time.
I remember when they split Ma Bell. While I wouldn't necessarily say things are better for the consumer since cost wise, there is at least no dependency on one phone company doing everything, or failing at everything.
This is a one minute window today.Quote: rxwineI just don't see how it can work well with too few and too big at the same time.
I remember when they split Ma Bell. While I wouldn't necessarily say things are better for the consumer since cost wise, there is at least no dependency on one phone company doing everything, or failing at everything.
These are the blue chippest of blue chips stocks. This is where old people or those that just want "return of their capitol "go, who aren't concerned so much with return "on their capitol"

This is what Clinton signing away Glass Stegal and deregulating the markets along with HFT trading algorhythyms have done, with the blessing of the SEC. The TBTF's are raping the retirement accounts now of what is left, while John Corzine walks around free.
They won't get elected but Sanders, Paul, Warren or Ron Paul are the only ones talking about this stuff before it is mainstreet pain.
They will always know more than you. You just don't have the time, expertise, or resources that these guys have.
Quote: MrVWhat a difference a day makes.
It never goes straight down. This market is on the Blue Sky Meth of free money. Dumped my equity funds yesterday. Getting to look too much like early 2008.