Likely incorrect odds in El Cortez promo

I recently received the attached promotion from El Cortez via email. It includes the sentence, "There are only 40 of these machines in the state of Nevada and the El Cortez has 4 of them; that's a 10% chance of hitting here!"

Actually, this is probably not true because the El Cortez is not making an adjustment for the volume per machine. It could be more or or less depending on whether or not the machines at El Cortez have more or less volume than the other 36 machines. In addition, past volume may not be indicative of future volume and, therefore, the odds that a jackpot occurs at El Cortez.

I think you should have better things to do with your life then worry about this.

Yahoo!
Overdue jackpot alert!
$3 million and counting!




so it is WAY OVERDUE

slots are fun!

Ahigh on his way there!

for 3 mil I would drop a $100 for a chance. why not, winning is fun and so is dreaming.

Quote: deedubbs

I recently received the attached promotion from El Cortez via email. It includes the sentence, "There are only 40 of these machines in the state of Nevada and the El Cortez has 4 of them; that's a 10% chance of hitting here!"

Disclaimer: "There are 4 of these machines at the El Cortez, so there is a 75% chance that if the jackpot is hit here, then it wasn't hit on the machine that you were playing at the time."

Lion's Share was "overdue" too, wasn't it?

Quote: bigfoot66

I think you should have better things to do with your life then worry about this.

I certainly do, but my girlfriend calls such things "recreational complaining."

Technically misleading advertising since odds of hitting it at El Co depends on play amount among all the network machines, but will the gaming commission care if that is pointed out, meh.

I don't find it misleading. 4/40 is 10%.

Granted, you could argue it's misleading because of volume/speed/etc. But then again, you could probably argue most other advertisements (casinos or other) are misleading because they don't include "all the facts".

And I'm sure there are many more 'facts' or variables than just play amount and volume. And if there are unknown variables, then (IMO) you have to assume they are equally distributed.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Lion's Share was "overdue" too, wasn't it?

That was the first thing I thought of too. You beat me to it.

Quote: GWAE

for 3 mil I would drop a $100 for a chance. why not, winning is fun and so is dreaming.

Might as well buy a lottery ticket.