uptight members who can't imagine any craps play except PL and CB only

removed
silly

I've noticed a lot of posts about craps lately that are very square mathematically. I recall somebody wrote something like "Good long term strategy is terrible short term strategy." Somebody else wrote defending places bets on the 4, 5, 9, and 10 when the shooter is making lots of those points.

Everybody who knows me should know what my reaction to these kinds of posts would be. However, 99.54% of the time I don't waste my time doing so. Everybody should know that I advocate line bets and odds only. It makes no difference how hot or cold the table or how the current shooter is doing. The dice don't have a memory. It is a waste of time to say this at every square craps post. I know that horse isn't going to drink the water, so why bother leading it the creek.

Ultimately, I know I'm not going to save everybody, so I save my efforts for those with respect for math. For the rest, the casinos have to make money from somebody to subsidize the sharp players.

If this is makes me "up tight" or not; I don't really care.

I decline to respond, other than this, which I suppose is a response, in which case, I decline to respond other than this response.

Quote: Wizard

I've noticed a lot of posts about craps lately that are very square mathematically. I recall somebody wrote something like "Good long term strategy is terrible short term strategy." Somebody else wrote defending places bets on the 4, 5, 9, and 10 when the shooter is making lots of those points.

Everybody who knows me should know what my reaction to these kinds of posts would be. However, 99.54% of the time I don't waste my time doing so. Everybody should know that I advocate line bets and odds only. It makes no difference how hot or cold the table or how the current shooter is doing. The dice don't have a memory. It is a waste of time to say this at every square craps post. I know that horse isn't going to drink the water, so why bother leading it the creek.

Ultimately, I know I'm not going to save everybody, so I save my efforts for those with respect for math. For the rest, the casinos have to make money from somebody to subsidize the sharp players.

If this is makes me "up tight" or not; I don't really care.

Wiz,
i will pretend to be narcissistic and claim this thread is about me, and as I wrote, my "up tight" comment was NEVER about you, for the very reason you state above. Your position is very clear about the math of the various bets. And then, You leave it at that. You don't try to convert everyone to your way of thinking.

No attitude should be considered "uptight" unless there is a suggestion that the conceited member is so overreaching that he wants no one to say a player can pick whatever bet he wants.

In other words, if Mr. Uptight, whoever that might be, acts as if he would pull a "Bloomberg" if he could get away with it, and not even allow such betting to take place, even though the player says he enjoys betting that way, then "uptight" is appropriate.

If just evaluating the betting in a mathematical way, that gets a pass. Certainly if a member posts something that is just not correct, then that member should just have to take it without complaint. If in fact making sucker bets, he should even have to hear the bet [not the player] described that way if that can be substantiated IMO.

BTW, nothing RaleighCraps has said has bothered me, as he seems deferential about it, not claiming to be an authority.

While I would rather make come bets, the short term expense of them is too high. If I only have $100 bucks to play, come bets with even double odds is way too high. Wouldn't take much to lose everything very quickly. So I'll make place bets. Yes it would be better to just save my money and play less often with a larger bankroll, but, meh, oh well.

Also, now that I've been a dealer for over two years, my views on gambling have changed. The math needs to be considered, but the psychological aspect also needs to be considered. If it makes you feel better to not hit your 16 against a 10, that's fine. If it makes you feel better to make place bets instead of come bets, then by all means. If it makes you feel better to take your don't off a 6 or 8, feel free. It's when you end up making bad plays on a regular basis it becomes a problem.

If I'm in the middle of a shoe and having a good run, I don't want someone else to jump in. It's not because I think it will "change the cards" or anything. I realize it doesn't matter in the long run, it just makes me feel better for nothing to change. I would rather lose having nothing changed, then to lose after someone jumped in, even if it's possible I could've won had I let that other player in. Sometimes the psychological aspect outweighs the mathematics.

If it is no fun for you to just play pass and come line bets (including don'ts), then it doesn't matter what the odds are; it is a waste of money. On the other hand, if you're having a stone cold blast playing all hardways, it might not be a good bet for the odds, but you're getting your money's worth in thrills.

Let's never forget: if you are thinking about gambling as a system of wages, you are far better off going to work instead of the casino. You're buying fun with your money, and the operating word in that thought is your. It is the bettor who decides the value of the bet. No one else.

Quote: ewjones080

While I would rather make come bets, the short term expense of them is too high. If I only have $100 bucks to play, come bets with even double odds is way too high. Wouldn't take much to lose everything very quickly. So I'll make place bets. Yes it would be better to just save my money and play less often with a larger bankroll, but, meh, oh well.

So why not just make come bets with no odds? Your odds are still better than place bets.

Quote: Wizard

However, 99.54% of the time I don't waste my time doing so..

LOL!

I'm not afraid to say I am (by far) a net loser at craps. I've never played anything but line bets and odds, usually between 2x-10x. I bet a lot on the odds and variance has rarely been kind to me.

Quote: Wizard

I've noticed a lot of posts about craps lately that are very square mathematically. I recall somebody wrote something like "Good long term strategy is terrible short term strategy." Somebody else wrote defending places bets on the 4, 5, 9, and 10 when the shooter is making lots of those points.

Everybody who knows me should know what my reaction to these kinds of posts would be. However, 99.54% of the time I don't waste my time doing so. Everybody should know that I advocate line bets and odds only. It makes no difference how hot or cold the table or how the current shooter is doing. The dice don't have a memory. It is a waste of time to say this at every square craps post. I know that horse isn't going to drink the water, so why bother leading it the creek.

Ultimately, I know I'm not going to save everybody, so I save my efforts for those with respect for math. For the rest, the casinos have to make money from somebody to subsidize the sharp players.

If this is makes me "up tight" or not; I don't really care.

I have pretty much taken the same strategy...I used to post on most of the craps threads trying to inject some mathematical knowledge, but most people don't want to hear it. I will still chime in occasionally but it's really boring and kind of a waste of time to read through and respond to everything.

I still think we need to have a rotating "Gambler's Fallacy Smackdown" on-call rotation among regular members. We could each take a week here and there, and then it's our responsibility to respond to stuff like this with real math...actually I would never volunteer for that rotation, so scratch my idea :).