FaceBook Stock. You Buy Any?
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May 29th, 2012 at 2:52:45 PM
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FB closed at $28 and change today, down from the opening
$38 of 10 days ago. As many as 1000 FB employees had
planned on being instant millionaires by now. Now they're
saying that as many as 40% of the 900mil FB accounts are
bogus. They belong to people with multiple accounts, scammers,
or small children who lied about their age. How anything
good can come out of this debacle is the question of the day.
$38 of 10 days ago. As many as 1000 FB employees had
planned on being instant millionaires by now. Now they're
saying that as many as 40% of the 900mil FB accounts are
bogus. They belong to people with multiple accounts, scammers,
or small children who lied about their age. How anything
good can come out of this debacle is the question of the day.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 29th, 2012 at 3:05:53 PM
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Quote: EvenBobor small children who lied about their age.
Two of them are my kids.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 29th, 2012 at 3:26:22 PM
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Quote: WizardTwo of them are my kids.
Children have no access to money, they don't
fit into the advertising model. I suspect FB
has far more kids in the 900mil than they
will ever know. Its all a scam anyway, for
the founders to get rich. Zuckerberg will
be a billionaire no matter where the stock
ends up, he paid nothing for his millions
of shares.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 29th, 2012 at 3:28:50 PM
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Quote: EvenBobNow they're
saying that as many as 40% of the 900mil FB accounts are
bogus.
I'm pretty sure they knew that before.
Also, those employees are still millionaires. They sold their stock in the IPO at $38...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 29th, 2012 at 3:30:26 PM
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Quote: EvenBobChildren have no access to money, they don't
fit into the advertising model. I suspect FB
has far more kids in the 900mil than they
will ever know. Its all a scam anyway, for
the founders to get rich. Zuckerberg will
be a billionaire no matter where the stock
ends up, he paid nothing for his millions
of shares.
Don't you ever shop, bob? See all those kids begging for random crap? That's because of effective advertising to children.
Zuckerberg is a billionaire already. He made about $2.2B off the IPO. Even if his remaining shares are worth $0, he still has $2.2B.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 29th, 2012 at 3:38:45 PM
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So they go public at $38 with around 2 billion shares with current year estimates around $.50 earnings giving hem about a P/E of around 76 or so...
...seems kind of expensive. Who knows where they will be in 5 years? Talk about gambling...
...seems kind of expensive. Who knows where they will be in 5 years? Talk about gambling...
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
May 29th, 2012 at 4:02:23 PM
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Even at the current $28.84 it is still significantly overvalued, at least in my opinion. Even at the beaten down price, the P-E ratio is still 73.76. For the DOW in general it is 13 (correct me if I'm wrong). Ignorring other factors, the fair price of Facebook should be $5.08 a share.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 29th, 2012 at 4:04:51 PM
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while I agree Morgan Stanley screwed this IPO up royally......the amount of facebook accounts that are children really has nothing to do with the advertizing model(IF the children are using the account, not if the parent makes an account for a 1year old)....sure children have no access to money....but that doesn't mean you don't advertize to them....have you ever watch TV during Saturday morning cartoons and seen the commercials that are running?...I would say advertizing or for clothes or makeup on face book targeted to a 14 year old is more effective then GM advertizing to a 35 year old using facebook.....Now, double accounts and scammers are an entirely different issue.....
May 29th, 2012 at 4:06:41 PM
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I might buy it for $5.08/share. Maybe.
May 29th, 2012 at 4:20:56 PM
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The day of the IPO I put in a limit order, good for the day, at $33. I'm glad FB's price didn't fall the first day. I would not have been happy to be stuck with it.
My analysis of fair market value is $12 to $15 per share. This is based on there being 800M users and FB stating that they generate $5 profit per user per year. Assuming a 95% retention rate, 3% inflation, and a typical lifespan as a user of 10 years, this yields a customer lifetime value of about $30. That's an optimistic number for the CLTV, given the rate of change of technology. At $38 per share, they were placing a CLTV for each FB user at about $100.
My analysis of fair market value is $12 to $15 per share. This is based on there being 800M users and FB stating that they generate $5 profit per user per year. Assuming a 95% retention rate, 3% inflation, and a typical lifespan as a user of 10 years, this yields a customer lifetime value of about $30. That's an optimistic number for the CLTV, given the rate of change of technology. At $38 per share, they were placing a CLTV for each FB user at about $100.
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May 29th, 2012 at 4:47:28 PM
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i put my entire blackjack bankroll into put options.
as bill starbuck (burt lancaster) says in The Rainmaker:
"At last, RAIN!...
Now gimme my hundred bucks!"
as bill starbuck (burt lancaster) says in The Rainmaker:
"At last, RAIN!...
Now gimme my hundred bucks!"
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
May 29th, 2012 at 5:24:28 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusDon't you ever shop, bob? See all those kids begging for random crap?
Internet advertising aimed at children under 12
doesn't work. There are 10's of millions of kids
8-12 on FB. At least. They're not even sure if
ad's aimed at adults work all that well. I'm on
the net everyday and the ad's are invisible to
me, I don't read them.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 29th, 2012 at 5:48:04 PM
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So Suckerburg decides it time for a Dumbphone... you know the one that will not respect your privacy/personal information,
yet offer enticing gadget ads at rather shady outlets.
Short'em to a dolla sez I, ARRrrr.
yet offer enticing gadget ads at rather shady outlets.
Short'em to a dolla sez I, ARRrrr.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
May 29th, 2012 at 7:13:27 PM
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Quote: WizardEven at the current $28.84 it is still significantly overvalued, at least in my opinion. Even at the beaten down price, the P-E ratio is still 73.76. For the DOW in general it is 13 (correct me if I'm wrong). Ignorring other factors, the fair price of Facebook should be $5.08 a share.
I wish you could come to my office and explain that to this guy I see in the lunchroom daily. I was a little more charitable than you and said a value of $8. He bragged about getting it at $40. Fwiw my value was going at about 20-1 p/e due to high marginal profit vs say gm who has to build product.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
May 29th, 2012 at 7:36:50 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI'm on
the net everyday and the ad's are invisible to
me, I don't read them.
At least, you don't think you read them:)
Those times you say "oh, THAT! I saw that somewhere!" are probably at least partly because of internet ads.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 29th, 2012 at 7:46:44 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusAt least, you don't think you read them:)
.
I don't read them, I don't hear them becuase the sound
is always off. I'm the most product loyal person I know,
I buy what I buy and rarely try anything new.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 29th, 2012 at 7:53:24 PM
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Quote: EvenBobI don't read them, I don't hear them becuase the sound
is always off. I'm the most product loyal person I know,
I buy what I buy and rarely try anything new.
I bet I could put a fake product on the sidebar on this site and have you recognizing the logo within 3 days.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
May 30th, 2012 at 9:43:14 AM
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Quote: WongBoi put my entire blackjack bankroll into put options.
as bill starbuck (burt lancaster) says in The Rainmaker:
"At last, RAIN!...
Now gimme my hundred bucks!"
I was waiting for the options to open too. But I think it's too early to load up on puts. I can't help but think that Morgan Stanley must have given their traders marching orders to keep this pig afloat until their prized clients who bought into this this turd can get out without taking it up the kazoo too badly. That is to say, I think there's a good chance it will get back up close to its IPO price (unless the broader market collapses).
Once it rises close to its IPO, then I think it will be a good time to load up on puts. Just my .02; take it with a tiny grain of salt.
May 30th, 2012 at 10:17:49 AM
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i am back-pedaling a little.
here is what forbes had to say...
here is what forbes had to say...
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
May 30th, 2012 at 10:25:13 AM
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Quote: WongBoi am back-pedaling a little.
here is what forbes had to say...
I still agree with the general consensus here about it going to the teens. I just think you have to give it time to level out so people can get out before it starts a long steady downward spiral.
I was watching an interview with Zuck and Sandberg a while back. Every fiber of my being told me these clowns were trying to reinvent this company every 30 minutes. The truth is, it's just a glorified message board. Period.
May 30th, 2012 at 12:21:59 PM
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I am surprised there is little being said about what geniuses the original owners (Zuckerberg et al.) are. They 'sold' their company for 100 billion or so, and after the dust settles it will obviously be worth far less, I think its around 70 billion now. The idea of an IPO is to turn the intangible value of a privately owned company into the more tangible (stock price x number of shares outstanding). The fact that 'insiders' were stupid enough to agree that the company was worth 100 billion, and pay FB that much, says a lot about the persuasiveness of the original owners. As far as all who say (the P/E ratio blah blah blah).. there are many stocks that at present have no real P/E ratio, that is, E is negative. The price of a stock is often nothing more than a 'guess' as to what the company will look like years down the road.
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May 30th, 2012 at 2:21:48 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOI am surprised there is little being said about what geniuses the original owners (Zuckerberg et al.) are. They 'sold' their company for 100 billion or so,'
Its a good thing they did it now. The way things are
looking in EU, Romney is going to inherit a world wide
depression and FB would be worth squat.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 31st, 2012 at 2:10:54 AM
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Hello guys. How many of you buy the share of FB? I think we first read the market value of any company then after that think to buy their share. And according to this post I think that market value of fb is in good condition. So there is no threat to get them.
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June 7th, 2012 at 10:27:27 AM
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There's a good NPR podcast on the facebook float and what it's share price could mean :
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/05/22/153300390/facebook-now-what
A short discussion with a couple of groups who use facebook to communicate via fan pages suggests the model/pricing isn't going to work for them. Limited data points for sure.
I don't believe FaceBook can increase their earnings 8 fold, and they have a very low book value. I think they are over valued by at least double or triple. Given their latest earnings and what i think is a limited growth in advertising for them, I'd say they'd be value at around a $25-40Billion market capitalisation. I'll wait till the shares drop by half.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/05/22/153300390/facebook-now-what
A short discussion with a couple of groups who use facebook to communicate via fan pages suggests the model/pricing isn't going to work for them. Limited data points for sure.
I don't believe FaceBook can increase their earnings 8 fold, and they have a very low book value. I think they are over valued by at least double or triple. Given their latest earnings and what i think is a limited growth in advertising for them, I'd say they'd be value at around a $25-40Billion market capitalisation. I'll wait till the shares drop by half.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
June 7th, 2012 at 11:47:09 AM
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Quote: thecesspitI'll wait till the shares drop by hald.
Why wait? Use futures market to be short FB, then. Make a fortune, then retire.
June 7th, 2012 at 12:29:59 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOWhy wait? Use futures market to be short FB, then. Make a fortune, then retire.
I should have written : I would wait till shares drop by half (if I was willing to take a bet on a single company).
I've done that once, got burnt for a few hundred pounds. Not going to do it again...
I agree... I should short Facebook based on my analysis, if I was confident enough.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
June 7th, 2012 at 12:50:40 PM
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I got a few ipo shares that were promptly sold at $40.11. I'm happy with my high 2 figure profit
July 31st, 2012 at 12:25:17 PM
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Facebook continues its plunge this week, $21 and change. From
an opening of $38 back in May. No basement in sight.
an opening of $38 back in May. No basement in sight.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 31st, 2012 at 12:55:18 PM
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Quote: EvenBobFacebook continues its plunge this week, $21 and change. From
an opening of $38 back in May. No basement in sight.
Zynga took a massive hit recently as well. This isn't surprising, these stocks were valued highly on huge future growth as opposed to valued on cash generation now. Any bad news means the stocks take a tumble, but there's not much upside left on good news. It's all optimism.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 31st, 2012 at 1:11:08 PM
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Optimism that bots aren't taking over FB?
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/bots-raise-their-heads-again-on-facebook/
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/bots-raise-their-heads-again-on-facebook/
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
