Maximize hands won in BJ

I am very interested in the answer to this question.

What is the best strategy to play to maximize the number of hands you can win in 100 hands.

I'm interested in the number without having to double down or split unless doing so gives you an advantage for winning the hand. which I doubt.

So, if I have and 11 showing, I know you will win more money for every 100 times you double this hand against a dealers 10 up card. But what if you didn't double and just played the hand out according to basic hit vs stand rules. Wouldn't you win more times than if you just took 1 card?

Thanks,

deleted

Never double, and follow strategy as if you were not allowed to double (for instance, hit/stand decisions with soft 18)

What do splits count as? If you split your 100th hand, is that hand 100 and 101? Is winning both better than winning one? Is one win & one loss the same as a split?

I realize that some splits would win more often if split than if played without splitting. But which splits result in a net gain if split vs those that would result in a net loss if split. I know that John Patrick suggests not splitting aces and 8's against 10's & Aces. Does this result in more won hands or no?

I have a friend who is trying to combine a betting strategy along with card counting to see if since you have a net advantage by counting cards and playing an advanced strategy, a progression might help rather than just betting more when the count is plus and less when minus. It's too complicated to go into any details. I'm thinking that there are some hands that the progression might influence us to play differently in certain circumstances.

GLC

You lost credibility when you mentioned a betting system that contradicts betting based on the count. All a betting system can do is re-allocate your odds*, not actually change the expected value. The only context in which a betting system could possibly be useful in a card-counting context is as a 'cover' play when the count is high. Betting systems often result in increased betting, which is really what you're trying to do in a high count..."get the money out". If your betting spread appears to be the result of a 'system' rather than the count, it might appear more tolerable to a casino, although I've never heard anyone recommend this.

Because I know someone will jump in here and tell me that betting systems can NEVER be useful, I'm going to defend that a betting system can change certain binary things (for instance, if using the martingale, you are more likely to walk away a small winner than a loser, and if you objective is walking a winner...perhaps to tell your friends that you 'beat Vegas', regardless of the amount of money won or lost, such a system accomplishes that objective).

I didn't say the betting system contradicted betting based on the count. One thing that I know is that with the odds so close, even with a 2% advantage most players will walk away down rather than up because of lack of enough bankroll. The basic idea is to flat bet when the deck is pro dealer, mild progression when the deck is basically even and a more aggressive progression when the deck is rich in high cards. But not so blatant as betting 1 unit when the deck's minus and 100 units when it's plus.

Your statement about a betting system only being useful as a cover assumes more than you can be sure of. Rather than worrying about my credibility, maybe somebody could help answer my question and leave the gambler's fallacy issue for me to deal with. After all it's my money on the line.

Quote: GLC

Rather than worrying about my credibility, maybe somebody could help answer my question and leave the gambler's fallacy issue for me to deal with. After all it's my money on the line.

BINGO!!!

We really need to stop criticizing everyone who has a question about their gambling "strategies". If you have a productive answer to a question; answer it.

If you don't have a productive answer; keep your comments to yourself!

The splitting question is actually very tricky. If you were still planning to double after splitting, you could use this table:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/

and compare the EV of splitting against the EV of hitting/standing. Heuristically, if the EV of splitting was more than 1/2 the EV of the best play, you can still split to maximize your chance of winning (I guess I'm not positive this is true, but it feels right). However, the table assumes you will double after you split, which you won't (in order to maximize the chance of winning that hand). So, use that table with a grain of salt.

That being said... my unsolicited advice: you are giving up a fair amount of house edge by not doubling or splitting sub-optimally. People have tried a progression + card-counting technique before, we've seen them on the site. I think card counting with proper play is strictly better. Just make random bets that look like progression as cover. Focus on the counting, not the progression, to make the $$$.

I appreciate your response and will take your advice under consideration.

Good luck to you and if I find anything worth reporting to the forum, I will.

Since I usually play in short sessions of a couple of hours, 1,000,000 hand tests are interesting but don't tend to sway my thinking much.

I rely more on trying to take advantage of hot steaks and pulling up when cold. It's a little tricky but with some experience, it tends to work just fine.

I also use three progressions which can get a little tricky until you do it enough for it to become 2nd nature. I admit that doing some basic counting, adjusting strategy accordingly and keeping track of 3 different progressions using chip stacks so as not to have to use pen and paper keeps you pretty busy. Two hours is about all I can handle at a time.

Using multiple progressions means that sometime you have to quit before reaching an overall win, but quitting when the count's negative and re-entering when the counts plus and you're a little ahead of the game.

Even though it's complicated, it's still the best bet in town.

GLC

I wonder how many good posters this forum has lost due to unfriendly welcomes, ridicule, bullying, condescension etc. I guess we'll never know. As I'm posting this, the forum has 1756 inactive members.

I always enjoy your insightfull well thought out comments about this type of nonsense. You seem to be well respected in this community but unfortunately members hiding behind a keyboard empowers them to no end.

I am against bullying, ridiculing, etc. But at that same time this is a unique forum. If you want to be told everything is just wonderful, go to Facebook. If you want your ideas and thoughts challenged, this is the place. There are experts ( not Me ) in almost any area of gambling and many other facets of life here, who will insist you defend you ideas.

It's an old saying, yet true. " It's the fire that tempers the steel"

Yes, and the experts here engage in healthy, productive conversation and debate. Believe it or not it can be done without the petty insults and nastiness from insecure people.

We all know who the experts are on this forum. Have you ever seen one of them resort to any of this nonsense? I haven't.

Nor Have I. But sometimes you can not separate the wheat from the chaff. And it is not necessary to respond to fools.

Oops May have trapped myself there. LOL

I am going to go on RECORD and say that I advised a person on this forum thru PM who was here recently asking a question about his "Roulette System" that was working for him to no longer post questions about his system here because the ridicule by virtually EVERYBODY on the forum was horrible.

The guy was asking a simple question about how his system was working very well for him and he was surprised nobody here talked about a similar system. He was not trying to sell his system to anyone. He was just asking a question about it and DESCRIBED IT ENTIRELY to all of us and a lot of us made him feel STUPID. FYI, his "system" is still working very well for him; I sent him a PM recently asking him how things were going. I am going to try the same "system" soon and I will be sure NOT to report my findings here if it is successful however I will send him a PM thanking him for the free advice.

Everybody has "Luck" in certain things. No "System" works for everybody. I believe almost everything I read here because I have seen all sort of crazy, unbelievable stuff in Casinos happen all the time:

*My wife (who hates gambling) has played Roulette (I forced her) 5 times and won 4 times using the same "lucky" number. The experts will say "Small Sample Size". I reply...who cares?

** I have found a "lucky" slot machine where I have won $20 - $120 off a $20 buy-in each time I've played it (6 times). The experts will say "Small Sample Size". I reply...who cares?

***I am the ULTIMATE LOSER in Blackjack. Lost 20+ consecutive hands 4 separate times in about a week last year. I got an Ace while doubling down on 11, 11 straight times and refused to play Blackjack for an entire year afterwards. If I ever play Blackjack; I will NEVER Double Down anymore...the experience scarred me for life! Experts will say, it's all "selective memory", It's not "selective memory" when you document crazy events as they happen and you lose $850 playing $5 - $10 Blackjack 2 days in a row!!!

****I am a HORRIBLE *Point Seven Out (PSO) KING* most of the time shooting Craps; bet against me (Don't Pass Line) and you'll do well MOST of the time, I GUARANTEE IT.

*****I have a very close friend who had a SILLY, non-scientific/non-mathematic Caribbean Stud Poker "system" that worked for him for over a year. I heard about it; he sat with and taught all my friends and myself his "system". We all tried it..."IT WAS SHEER STUPIDITY", none of us ever made a single $1 trying it but I sat right next to him and saw him win anywhere from $500 - $9,500 each time off a $500 buy-in multiple times (8+ times) in person. He went to AC once every 2 weeks to literally make a withdrawal for an entire year. He won about 80% of the time. There were times he would go to the Casino (2 hour trip) with his $500 buy-in, make a $3,000 profit in one hand and head back home immediately; the most amazing discipline I have ever seen in my life. He made RIDICULOUS money in Atlantic City and on a 4 day trip to Casino Veneto (Don't drink the water/ice, way too many hookers) in Panama with all of us including yours truly in tow; he had all the Casino Bosses there shaking in their boots with his freaking Midas touch. He had the best, most consistent luck I have ever seen or heard of in my entire life. I can write a book about his "good luck" and how the good luck ended and I would still have a hard time believing it. His "good luck" stopped in the most amazing fashion, in short his luck turned....he has not won the last 10 times he has played and has officially QUIT but he is still up a LOT of money.

I'm sure most of the people on the forum think I am making up a story right now but crazy things happen in life every single day....

PLEASE stop criticizing people when they discuss their "winning systems" or anomalies on this forum. We have probably all experienced things that most others would deem unbelievable in different aspects of our lives including the Casino. As long as the person is not trying to SELL any system...we should listen with open minds and maybe learn from it. Hopefully, we all get lucky like that one day. If you have something productive to add to a question asked; answer it. If you don't have anything productive to say...keep your comments to yourself!

Quote: GLC

I rely more on trying to take advantage of hot steaks and pulling up when cold. It's a little tricky but with some experience, it tends to work just fine.

GLC

Welcome and good luck.
Answer me this... If you've been 'hot', say won 8 of your last 10, what do you think your chances of winning the next hand are?
If you've been 'cold', winning 2 of your last 10, what do you think your chances of winning the next hand are?

If you think that there is a difference, explain to me why?

If your answer is that you've been counting cards and the count is good when you are winning, then why not just use one of the well established card counting systems? Lower your bet when the count is bad, raise it when it is good.

" If you don't have anything productive to say...keep your comments to yourself! " Physician, heal thyself. LOL

Quote: GLC

I am very interested in the answer to this question.

What is the best strategy to play to maximize the number of hands you can win in 100 hands.

I'm interested in the number without having to double down or split unless doing so gives you an advantage for winning the hand. which I doubt.

So, if I have and 11 showing, I know you will win more money for every 100 times you double this hand against a dealers 10 up card. But what if you didn't double and just played the hand out according to basic hit vs stand rules. Wouldn't you win more times than if you just took 1 card?

Thanks,

HIT v DOUBLE
As another poster mentioned you hit all the hands that would be double.
More correctly you would hit all hands that BS is double if you would hit again. If you would not hit again, then you can Double.
For example 11 v 8: You hit as there many cards that would make you hit again
But 11 v 6: You double. You are not going to hit again whatever your hit card.

HIT v STAND
When you have a stiff hand then you van either win or lose (not push)
When you hit a stiff hand, then you increase the probability of push which contributes to increase in Ev.
For marginal hand like 16 v 10, Stand probably wins more often than Hit. Hit has a higher Ev because of probability of push when you hit.
Other marginal hand that this might be the case is 12 v 4.

SPLIT
That's a lot more compliacated to analyse. It also depends what you consider a win. For example splitting and doubling one hand and winning +2 and losing the other -1.

BUT it is a very bad idea to have as goal to maximize the number of times you win. The goal should be to maximize EV.
Using a strategic that maximises number of times you win probaly has a negative effect on EV of around 0.5%-1.0%

Quote: GLC

I am very interested in the answer to this question.

What is the best strategy to play to maximize the number of hands you can win in 100 hands.

I'm interested in the number without having to double down or split unless doing so gives you an advantage for winning the hand. which I doubt.

So, if I have and 11 showing, I know you will win more money for every 100 times you double this hand against a dealers 10 up card. But what if you didn't double and just played the hand out according to basic hit vs stand rules. Wouldn't you win more times than if you just took 1 card?

Thanks,

The Wizard has a spreadsheet available for download and it looks easy to follow and understand.

Since you are just looking for the highest winning probabilities for all possible starting hands, you should look there first.
You will have to do some adding since the Wizard's tables multiplies to get the ev. Looks doable.
Would be interesting to see the final results.

I do not enjoy Blackjack so I have no current interest in even thinking about doing this.

At the very bottom of the page is the link to his spreadsheet.
my actual spreadsheet Google docs