Can you beat a 0% House Edge game?
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April 17th, 2012 at 6:50:21 PM
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if it's -EV, you cant win long term.
but what if the bet is 0% edge?
(ie: Craps 0% edge for Buying 4/10, and Field bets in a couple of AZ casinos)
if u play long enuf, u break even always?
but what if the bet is 0% edge?
(ie: Craps 0% edge for Buying 4/10, and Field bets in a couple of AZ casinos)
if u play long enuf, u break even always?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
April 17th, 2012 at 6:53:19 PM
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Don't you mean NM casinos?
You also need an incredible amount of seed money. Otherwise, you'll hit a long losing streak and still bust out in the long run.
You also need an incredible amount of seed money. Otherwise, you'll hit a long losing streak and still bust out in the long run.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 17th, 2012 at 7:21:18 PM
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It would have to be a long time! And you need a huge breakroll! Just because there is a 0% edge there is still going to be swings of variance.
Bang Biscuit!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:27:17 PM
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Quote: JamieVIt would have to be a long time! And you need a huge breakroll! Just because there is a 0% edge there is still going to be swings of variance.
I think there is no way to state you would need a huge bankroll. Variance can be either positive or negative, and there's no way to predict it. It's only a matter of frequency, isn't it?
No bounce, no play.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:34:18 PM
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It seems to me if you play a zero edge game long enough you ought to come out even.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 17th, 2012 at 7:39:50 PM
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Quote: aluisioI think there is no way to state you would need a huge bankroll. Variance can be either positive or negative, and there's no way to predict it. It's only a matter of frequency, isn't it?
In infinite time with infinite money, your expectation is $0 change in bankroll. But with finite money, issues come up. Specifically, it's possible to bust out. Say variability is +- 100 units over a set number of hands. What happens if I start with 99 units? Maybe I get to 199 units, but maybe I get to 0 with no ability to trend back up to even.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 17th, 2012 at 7:39:52 PM
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Quote: NareedIt seems to me if you play a zero edge game long enough you ought to come out even.
Yes, but you can quit anytime you get ahead, can't you?
No bounce, no play.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:41:11 PM
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Quote: aluisioYes, but you can quit anytime you get ahead, can't you?
That's true of a game with any chance of success, isn't it?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 17th, 2012 at 7:41:57 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusThat's true of a game with any chance of success, isn't it?
I think so.
No bounce, no play.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:44:08 PM
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Quote: aluisioI think so.
But most people eventually give in and gamble again. It's hard to never play again just because you're a little ahead.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 17th, 2012 at 7:47:25 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusBut most people eventually give in and gamble again. It's hard to never play again just because you're a little ahead.
It seems to me as a matter of discipline, money management to avoiding compulsivity. In that scenario, I would bet big, let's say 1K per unit and quit 1 or 2 units ahead.
No bounce, no play.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:49:19 PM
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That is definitely true. Hopefully you can get a lot ahead and then quit =)
Bang Biscuit!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:49:31 PM
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It depends on what you mean by winning? If you have only $100 and make only one bet, there is a 50/50 chance that you double your money or go broke. If you have 100 unit to bet, and bet only one unit, you will end up with a normal distribution. If you have 1000 unit and bet only one unit for a long period of time the normal distribution will be the result.
So what do you want to win. If you start with 1000 units and want to win only 1 more unit than you started with, there is prob > 99% chance this will happen. If you start with 10000 unit and want to win only 1 unit >> 99% this happens.
If you start with x units and play till you double your money or lose all of it, than it is exactly a 50/50 proposition.
So what do you want to win. If you start with 1000 units and want to win only 1 more unit than you started with, there is prob > 99% chance this will happen. If you start with 10000 unit and want to win only 1 unit >> 99% this happens.
If you start with x units and play till you double your money or lose all of it, than it is exactly a 50/50 proposition.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:49:33 PM
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Quote: aluisioIt seems to me as a matter of discipline, money management to avoiding compulsivity. In that scenario, I would bet big, let's say 1K per unit and quit 1 or 2 units ahead.
That works, but the key is that in order to keep the money you do have to permanently quit gambling.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
April 17th, 2012 at 7:51:26 PM
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Quote: rdw4potusThat works, but the key is that in order to keep the money you do have to permanently quit gambling.
You are right. I couldn't have written better. Someone posted about winning big on the free 4/10 at craps the other day. I can't recall exactelly who it was.
No bounce, no play.
April 17th, 2012 at 8:32:39 PM
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If you have X Units, and wish to make Y units, and it is an even money, fair game, the odds of doing it are :
x/(x+y), assuming you flat bet all the time.
(I think that is correct... )
x/(x+y), assuming you flat bet all the time.
(I think that is correct... )
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
April 17th, 2012 at 8:36:22 PM
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Oh, the other thing that comes to mind is that any advantage you find would count far more than in a similar -EV game.
Of course, getting an advantage in craps is not easy.
Of course, getting an advantage in craps is not easy.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
April 17th, 2012 at 8:37:48 PM
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No strategy can beat, or lose to, a 0% house edge game over the long run.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 17th, 2012 at 9:41:34 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsif it's -EV, you cant win long term.
but what if the bet is 0% edge?
(ie: Craps 0% edge for Buying 4/10, and Field bets in a couple of AZ casinos)
if u play long enuf, u break even always?
If you can beat it in the long run, it's not a 0% house edge game...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
April 17th, 2012 at 9:48:55 PM
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If you take away the HE, most games have a 50/50 chance
of winning. Why doesn't somebody invent a coin flip game,
where a device flips the coin. You would have a commission
on heads for the HE. Easy to understand, everybody would
play it.
of winning. Why doesn't somebody invent a coin flip game,
where a device flips the coin. You would have a commission
on heads for the HE. Easy to understand, everybody would
play it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
April 17th, 2012 at 9:50:44 PM
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Quote: WizardNo strategy can beat, or lose to, a 0% house edge game over the long run.
Pay attention to this statement. In the past many people have assumed that the larger bankroll of the casino means that they will ultimately win money with a 0% house edge. In the event that a player has as big a bankroll as a casino, the casino still has maximum bets to prevent said player from "breaking the bank".
April 17th, 2012 at 9:57:40 PM
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Of course you can beat a 0% HE game. The casino offers comps, don't they?
April 18th, 2012 at 3:30:16 AM
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In a 0% HE why does the concept of long run should ever apply? I don't know anyone with infinite time or infinite bankroll. Winning at those games, as said, is a matter of a very short run.
No bounce, no play.
April 18th, 2012 at 7:20:08 AM
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Some people are ahead overall, but most are not.
Look at this is way:
Assume that half the people are ahead and half are behind with a 0% house edge game, with no real income for the casino offering such a game.
By supplying a house of 1% or 2%, does that now make it 0% of the gamblers are ahead, and 100% behind overall?
No. It may be more like 15% and 85%. In the business, we note how very low-edge games like great BJ games have poor table hold.
Also, jackpots put people ahead, and some lock it in, rethinking excess gambling.
Intersting to note that a huge portion of Lotto winners and sports figures squander the money, treating a large but finite win as an inexhaustable source of money.
Gamblers, too, can be their own worst enemy, overstaying a formerly winning session. I plead guilty.
Look at this is way:
Assume that half the people are ahead and half are behind with a 0% house edge game, with no real income for the casino offering such a game.
By supplying a house of 1% or 2%, does that now make it 0% of the gamblers are ahead, and 100% behind overall?
No. It may be more like 15% and 85%. In the business, we note how very low-edge games like great BJ games have poor table hold.
Also, jackpots put people ahead, and some lock it in, rethinking excess gambling.
Intersting to note that a huge portion of Lotto winners and sports figures squander the money, treating a large but finite win as an inexhaustable source of money.
Gamblers, too, can be their own worst enemy, overstaying a formerly winning session. I plead guilty.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
April 18th, 2012 at 7:50:49 AM
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Quote: aluisioYes, but you can quit anytime you get ahead, can't you?
Sure... if you have will power.
Face it, most casinos that offer any sort of Zero Edge Game are going to be Dumps off in the middle of Nowhere reachable only from Possum Trot Gulch.
I mean,,, there is always Bingo at some Vegas Outer location and there is always some sort of "deal" going with points and rewards and saddle-sores at a slot machine, but in reality you won't find a zero edge game at a casino that does not have to offer one.
April 18th, 2012 at 8:12:47 AM
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For my kind of action it would take me a week to get a free visor cap with the casino's logo. I already got enough darned visor caps and I probably don't want anyone to know I've been to a casino that would comp my action.Quote: LonesomeGamblerOf course you can beat a 0% HE game. The casino offers comps, don't they?
