Let's make a deal odds when playing for a car.
3 of a kind
there are 3 4's and 3 queens hiding behind 6 numbered cards you have to pick a 3 of a kind on top. The odds of picking 3 of a kind are 1 in 6. If you know somebody that likes to bet after the host of lets make a deal shows you have a pair on top and a pair on bottom and it comes down to the last card where the odds look like there 50/50 you could lay your friend 2 to 1 odds that the player does not have a 3 of a kind and still win money long term.
pick a key from 4 keys 1 in 4 even after the host shows you 2 keys that don't work.
pick a wallet with $1 in it with 3 wallets carry a $100 consolation prize 1 in 4 even after the host shows you 2 wallets with $100 bills in it.
games I need help figuring out the odds?
0 to 80 mph
you have 4 picks to get to 80 mph or higher
there are 10 wheels with different miles per hour
2 have 0 mph 3 have 10 mph 3 have 20 mph 1 has 30 mph and 1 has 40 mph.
There are 210 possible was to pick 4 numbers in 10 how many of them give you 80 mph or greater?
The table below shows the total ways that you can pick from each speed available. The column "ways to pick" is the total number of ways that the player can pick this specific combination. In the top row, for instance, this equals combin(2,0)*combin(3,0)*combin(3,2)*combin(1,1)*combin(1,1).
| 0 mpg (2 total) | 10 mph (3 total) | 20 mph (3 total) | 30 mph (1 total) | 40 mph (1 total) | Ways to pick | Total MPH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 110 |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 90 |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 100 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 90 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 80 |
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 70 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 90 |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 80 |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 70 |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 60 |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 70 |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 60 |
| 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 50 |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 90 |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 80 |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 70 |
| 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 60 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 80 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 70 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 60 |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 50 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 60 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 50 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 40 |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 70 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40 |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 50 |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 |
Please explain the key and wallet games - is this a Monty Hall problem where you can switch the key or wallet?
I'll give you 7 to 1 odds that they have 3 of a kind, then, and I'll win money in the long term.Quote: cardcounter3 of a kind
there are 3 4's and 3 queens hiding behind 6 numbered cards you have to pick a 3 of a kind on top. The odds of picking 3 of a kind are 1 in 6. If you know somebody that likes to bet after the host of lets make a deal shows you have a pair on top and a pair on bottom and it comes down to the last card where the odds look like there 50/50 you could lay your friend 2 to 1 odds that the player does not have a 3 of a kind and still win money long term.
The actual odds of winning are 1 in 10.
Quote: DweenI'll give you 7 to 1 odds that they have 3 of a kind, then, and I'll win money in the long term.
The actual odds of winning are 1 in 10.
Glad I searched first. This game was just on and I was wondering what the smart choice is.
Of course they show her that she has 2 4s. There are 4 remaining unknown cards. She can take the deal for 4k or go for the 3rd 4 for car at 16k. Which is the smart choice? I say deal with no math behind it.
Quote: MidwestAPCan anyone explain this game in a little more detail? I'm a little lost based on what's been presented.
On the game show Let's Make A Deal, one of the games to win a car has a contestant pick three covered cards out of six. Three are queens and the other three are some other rank, usually 3's. The contestant has to get three of a kind to win the car and Wayne always shows a pair first.
Quote: WizardWhat is the name of this game? Perhaps somebody could provide a YouTube video as an example.
Couldn't find a video. Basically it's six covered playing cards. Three are queens and three are some other rank, usually 3,s. The contestant has to pick three of the six and get a three of a kind to win the car. Naturally two will match so Wayne always show the match first then will offer a "sure thing" or the player can pass that up and go for the car.
If I understand the game, the probability that the covered spot matches the pair is 1/10. If the value of the sure thing is greater than 10% of the value of the car, the player should take the sure thing, otherwise going for the car is the right choice.Quote: IbeatyouracesCouldn't find a video. Basically it's six covered playing cards. Three are queens and three are some other rank, usually 3,s. The contestant has to pick three of the six and get a three of a kind to win the car. Naturally two will match so Wayne always show the match first then will offer a "sure thing" or the player can pass that up and go for the car.
Quote: teliotIf I understand the game, the probability that the covered spot matches the pair is 1/10. Switching is always the right choice. If the player switches and chooses a random card out of the 3, then his probability of winning is 3/10.
They don't have the choice to switch. After Wayne reveals two (which always match), he'll offer a "sure thing" prize. At this time the contestant can take the sure thing or try for the car.
From wiki:
"Three of a Kind: A contestant is shown six cards, all are either of two different ranks (either four of one rank and two of the other or three of each rank). To win a car (or other prize), they must pick three matching cards. Two of their three cards (that do match) are shown and the contestant is given a bailout. If the bailout isn't taken, other cards not chosen may be shown and the contestant(s) is offered an increased bailout."
I've never seen where it's four and two as described. It's always been 3 and 3.
I assumed 3/3.Quote: IbeatyouracesI've never seen where it's four and two as described. It's always been 3 and 3.
Quote: teliotI assumed 3/3.
I'm certain you did. I was describing the discrepancy from the wiki page to what I've seen on the show. I've never seen it where it's been 4 of one card and 2 of the other. At the end, Wayne does reveal all six cards.
Thanks. Of course, without knowing the frequency of 4/2 vs. 3/3, it is impossible to complete the computation.Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm certain you did. I was describing the discrepancy from the wiki page to what I've seen on the show. I've never seen it where it's been 4 of one card and 2 of the other. At the end, Wayne does reveal all six cards.
Quote: teliotThanks. Of course, without knowing the frequency of 4/2 vs. 3/3, it is impossible to complete the computation.
True. As I've said though, I've never seen a 4/2. Possibly was done that way early in the shows run.
Another factor will probably be the value of the sure thing on whether to take that or go for the car.
