mickpk
mickpk
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March 23rd, 2012 at 3:30:55 PM permalink
I came across this item in today's local newspaper. I thought it was an interesting read and worth sharing. It's a long read so I hope you enjoy it.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/outrageous-fortune-20120323-1vooy.html

I'll start the discussion by disagreeing with the analysis on Kelly Slater (surfer) and his 11 world titles in 18 years. Imo, it wasn't as simple as 11 wins in 18 years against all other opponents and comparing it with a 50/50 coin toss. That's offensive to Slater.

Slater had to win heat after heat, tournament after tournament, or at least gain a large number of points (I suppose that, technically, you could win the season title by finishing second in every tournament and never winning one) throughout the year. It wasn't just 11 out of 18 50/50 contests.

Whilst not having his exact performance details on hand, I would imagine it would be more like winning 80 or more coin tosses per hundred. And then factor that in to his 11 winning seasons out of 18 (not to mention he temporarily retired for a while). There's no luck there. It's all amazing, freakin' skill, imo. To put some of it down to luck is an insult to his obviously natural talent but also his undoubtedly extreme work ethic. And likewise for many other professionals in their chosen field(s) who perform consistently time and time again.
PopCan
PopCan
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March 23rd, 2012 at 10:47:49 PM permalink
Well said. It's easy to say luck was a factor in 18 trials, but once you factor in all those other tournaments and heats luck becomes less of a factor over the long term, just as in gambling.

The problem is how people view luck. Luck as a concept absolutely does exist. If I've just rolled 10 points without a seven-out in craps then I can definitely say I was lucky. However, too many people think that luck extrapolates into the future. Just because I managed to win ten coin flips in a row doesn't mean my chances on the eleventh are anything but 50/50.

I'm a firm believer of "make your own luck" and that people who are lucky in life will be more fortunate in the future. However, there's a big difference between having a fortunate life and being lucky at gambling. I think most people will have a similar story to mine: When I was in my early teens talking to women was difficult and I didn't have much luck getting women. Despite really wanting a girlfriend I never managed to get one for years. I finally got really lucky and met a girl who had a crush on me and asked me out. After our relationship ended I started getting dates left and right. While luck may have been a factor in getting some of those dates, the biggest factor was that my first relationship gave me confidence. This confidence led me to take more risks asking women out and the confidence was apparent to women I pursued. My first "lucky" relationship led to my future fortune in dating. This same logic applies to almost every aspect of life; early luck can give people the confidence to take the risks they know are worthwhile. On the other hand, an early bout of bad luck can cause a person to be risk averse. If an early wipeout gave Kelly Slater a concussion and caused him to nearly drown he may not have had the confidence to succeed later on.

As a side rant, that "The Secret" book is incredibly annoying. Unlike most "make your own luck" books it encourages readers to "open yourself to the universe" and let some mystical power grant your wishes. They base The Secret on the proven concept of the power of positive thinking but then go on to say that the benefits come not from your willingness to take the steps needed achieve your goal, but from the mystical power of the universe. That can be dangerous. Before I met her, my girlfriend had spent months trying to apply "The Secret" to slot machines with predictable results. I explained to her that if "The Secret" really worked as stated then casinos the world over would start notice a drop in their slot hold and that just wasn't the case.

Fortune and women favor the bold.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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March 24th, 2012 at 12:43:50 AM permalink
Quote: PopCan


The problem is how people view luck. Luck as a concept absolutely does exist. .



Luck is the catch-all phrase for whats really
positive or negative variance. Most things
in life are random, so they're susceptible
to variance. Its nothing magical or mystical,
just mathematical.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
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