Interesting Craps Theory
January 27th, 2010 at 3:28:19 PM
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Found This article on craps on the American Casino Guide website, and just wondering what everyone thought about the theory, and if and where it was flawed.
I have been reading up on craps as im hoping to play when I get to Vegas, but being a "Craps Virgin" find it really interesting. The Wizards guide was really helpful.
I have been reading up on craps as im hoping to play when I get to Vegas, but being a "Craps Virgin" find it really interesting. The Wizards guide was really helpful.
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January 27th, 2010 at 4:01:30 PM
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I'm not one of the math guys here, but I dunno, it looks like he's just jimmying the amount bet to adjust the cost per hour and make certain bets appear more attractive. Sure, you can throw a buck on a hard way every bet rather than $5 on pas or don't pass, but that doesn't make it an attractive bet; it just means your bankroll bleeds at a different rate because you're betting less.
A falling knife has no handle.
January 27th, 2010 at 4:05:46 PM
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I basically agree with the theory, with the following exceptions...
You will not really find a casino that will accept a $1 field bet. The minimum on the field will be the same as the pass line.
Betting the hardways has a higher HA but because you are betting six times as less (or 5 times on the 4 and 10), your loss rate will be the same as placing $6 on the 6 and 8.
It is generally well known among craps table that betting the six and eight has about the same expected value as the pass line bet.
You will not really find a casino that will accept a $1 field bet. The minimum on the field will be the same as the pass line.
Betting the hardways has a higher HA but because you are betting six times as less (or 5 times on the 4 and 10), your loss rate will be the same as placing $6 on the 6 and 8.
It is generally well known among craps table that betting the six and eight has about the same expected value as the pass line bet.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 27th, 2010 at 7:10:15 PM
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Unless I'm missing something, there are errors in the "Cost per Hour" table for the 2 & 12 and 3 & 11 values. I was tipped off by the fact that they are the same - $6.67, yet the previous table shows different house edges - 11.11% for 3 & 11 and 13.89 for 2 & 12. So why wouldn't the cost per hour for 100 decisions per hour be $11.11 for the 3 & 11 and $13.89 for the 2 & 12? This is just sloppy work.
It is possible to have a HA for both of these bets as low as 5.56% depending on the payoff -- see the Wizard's proposition bets tables -- but most will be higher.
The HA for the don't bets is also incorrect.
I suppose there is nothing wrong with calculating cost per hour, but I don't see the point. Unless you are trying to qualify for comps (which would require larger bets than most of those shown) time at the table is not the critical factor. What matters is what happens to your bankroll while you play, hoping to hit that big score, so all that you should care about is the house advantage. Note that even in the cost per hour table the pass/come/don’t pass/don’t come are still the best bets!! (Although, you could make them $10 bets and then, wow, you'd be better off betting the field! I'm kdding - please don't do this.)
It is possible to have a HA for both of these bets as low as 5.56% depending on the payoff -- see the Wizard's proposition bets tables -- but most will be higher.
The HA for the don't bets is also incorrect.
I suppose there is nothing wrong with calculating cost per hour, but I don't see the point. Unless you are trying to qualify for comps (which would require larger bets than most of those shown) time at the table is not the critical factor. What matters is what happens to your bankroll while you play, hoping to hit that big score, so all that you should care about is the house advantage. Note that even in the cost per hour table the pass/come/don’t pass/don’t come are still the best bets!! (Although, you could make them $10 bets and then, wow, you'd be better off betting the field! I'm kdding - please don't do this.)
January 27th, 2010 at 7:50:12 PM
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Quote: seattledice(Although, you could make them $10 bets and then, wow, you'd be better off betting the field! I'm kdding - please don't do this.)
Azackly. He's adjusting the bet amount to vary the cost per hour, when in reality the actual risk is fixed. I was going to make up for my lack of ability to do a formal math analysis by using a reducto ad absurdum argument, showing that the cost per hour would be best if you could bet a penny on any 7, and the worst if you bet $10000 on pass w/odds, but I figured that would be absurd.
A falling knife has no handle.
January 27th, 2010 at 9:13:30 PM
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I have a couple things to say. First, if you want to minimize your losses per hour DON'T BET AT ALL! Second, if you want to minimize costs per hour, then you should use the house edge per roll. Usually in craps the house edge is expressed as the expected loss per bet made. However, for the per roll house edge, check my craps appendix 2.
For recreational gamblers the goal should be to get the most value out of your gambling dollar. Advice to "bet less" is easy to say, but won't give the gambler as much fun. To boil it down to basics, recreational gamblers should make an intelligent decision about what they can afford to play with, and then stick to that budget, making the best bets available.
For recreational gamblers the goal should be to get the most value out of your gambling dollar. Advice to "bet less" is easy to say, but won't give the gambler as much fun. To boil it down to basics, recreational gamblers should make an intelligent decision about what they can afford to play with, and then stick to that budget, making the best bets available.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 28th, 2010 at 4:56:55 PM
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Here is a rule.
On the craps table play only these bets. Hope for long stretches of wins. Once in a while make dollar bets on something else, but not very often.
Pass or Don't Pass
Come or Don't Come
Free Odds
Field Bet — only if there is a 3:1 payout (on either the 2 o 12)
Place Bets 6,8
Buy Bets 4,10
"Place Bets to Lose" on your choice of numbers
"Lay Bets" on your choice of numbers
If you get bored, then switch to the roulette table, but never bet on anything that pays 3:1 or less. No reds blacks, evens odds, 1-12, etc.
Roulette will give you more of the thrill of getting big wins, but not at the huge house edge of proposition bets in craps.
On the craps table play only these bets. Hope for long stretches of wins. Once in a while make dollar bets on something else, but not very often.
Pass or Don't Pass
Come or Don't Come
Free Odds
Field Bet — only if there is a 3:1 payout (on either the 2 o 12)
Place Bets 6,8
Buy Bets 4,10
"Place Bets to Lose" on your choice of numbers
"Lay Bets" on your choice of numbers
If you get bored, then switch to the roulette table, but never bet on anything that pays 3:1 or less. No reds blacks, evens odds, 1-12, etc.
Roulette will give you more of the thrill of getting big wins, but not at the huge house edge of proposition bets in craps.
