If you found a real gambling edge...

If you found a real edge in gambling... Would you share it with others?

The reason I bring this up, is the the Wizard recently posted a thread about a Lottery where he found that players actually had a significant edge when the total prize pool got to a certain amount. The Wizard was nice enough to share this data with everyone here. Would you? Or would you keep the profits for yourself?

Quote: gambler

If you found a real edge in gambling... Would you share it with others?

The reason I bring this up, is the the Wizard recently posted a thread about a Lottery where he found that players actually had a significant edge when the total prize pool got to a certain amount. The Wizard was nice enough to share this data with everyone here. Would you? Or would you keep the profits for yourself?

I would keep my mouth shut. But the cat is out of the bag here, I think.

Bear in mind that the Wizard didn't post any real secrets.

Sure, most of us, and perhaps many people in Mass, didn't know about that +EV date. However, the Wiz discovered it because someone else publicized it, and he stumbled across that notice, and did some math on it.

He may be helping to spread the word, but the cat was already out of the bag.

That said, if I discover a +EV game, what are the real odds that I am the first to discover it, or that whoever is running the game will continue running it as a +EV for long?

Therefore, I would help spread the word.

If I found a temporary edge, I would share it. If I found an edge that I could exploit until it was discovered, I would definitely not share it, or only share it with someone I trusted 100%.

FYI: It took me more than 5 minutes to compose my reply. I.E. odiousgambit and I both thought to use the "Cat is out of the bag" phrase.

It depends on the kind of edge. The lotto one the Wizard found is good for only a few times and I don't know whether it will make nay money even then.

Now, I recall a thread about a promotion allowing to triple down BJ bets at a big Indian casino in the Northeast, which gave an edge. I'd publicize that, because it was common knowledge and punlicized by the casino. As I recall, the Wizrd and maybe others drew up strategy charts to fully take advantage of the promo. This ahs also happened with loss rebate promos.

If I found a flaw in a game which allowed me to gain an edge, well, I'd test it and tell absolutely no one. If it worked, I'd keep at it until it dried up (nothing lasts forever).

But if I did ask for help I wouldn't ask on a public message board. I'd ask by email, and I would share the secret in that case, asking only for discretion.

Quote: FinsRule

If I found a temporary edge, I would share it. If I found an edge that I could exploit until it was discovered, I would definitely not share it, or only share it with someone I trusted 100%.

You can't trust anyone this much. I can't even tell my mom a secret without her telling it to everyone she trusts 100%.

I wouldn't tell anyone.

I'd love to know how the casinos discovered that Refresh Rate Programming Error in the electronic roulette game. Of course the company hasn't fessed up to it yet, but it seems thats what it was. Alot of people knew about the potential for a refresh rate error but it probably took only one of them to open their yap about it.

I hope I would keep quiet and just exploit it myself. Consider that Biloxi Sic Bo table with the misprint of 80:1 instead of 60:1 payout. People were flying in from Vegas to play in Biloxi and somebody spilled the beans rather promptly even before the casino noticed the heavy action at Sic Bo.

I would definitely keep it quiet, unless I needed confederates, or investors, to make it work.

One writer on that lotto offering felt it was immoral to publicise it, as you would dilute it and have many people 'chasing' after winnings that would become more elusive with an 'adjusted' pool. I felt that this was ridiculous, as participants in a betting pool are voluntary, and those who chase riches in gambling pay for the education they receive.

If a casino house had an offering that endangered the house, I might notify the casino about the problem. While many feel that a casino house is always ripe for the pickings, I have no qualms about alerting a casino operator as to when and where he might be endangering his business and how. Unlike most gamblers, I actually do have equal love for the operator as I do for the gamblers, and feel equal allegiance to the house as I do the gamblers.

I found an error in a game about 10 years ago that netted me many tens of thousands of dollars in a short time span. I told one friend about it while it was still in play but he didn't understand the math and never made an effort to use it. After the game was pulled from that (and all other) casinos I told a few people about it and even recently posted here about what it was. I've also made a substantial amount of money hole carding at 3CP and had a partner doing that for a while. If I found something like that again I might tell one or two close friends and milk it as long as we could but I wouldn't spread the word. Not so much out of selfish greed but more likely because I'd be afraid that if more people played the advantage it would get shut down faster.

Quote: Paigowdan

If a casino house had an offering that endangered the house, I might notify the casino about the problem. While many feel that a casino house is always ripe for the pickings, I have no qualms about alerting a casino operator as to when and where he might be endangering his business and how. Unlike most gamblers, I actually do have equal love for the operator as I do for the gamblers, and feel equal allegiance to the house as I do the gamblers.

This is why I would keep it quiet. If all the sheep finally got a chance to turn the tables and use the shears, the rancher would be quick to pull out the shotgun. However, how much damage can one, very quiet, sheep do?

I think I would keep it quiet too.

However, if I see a good deal that is available to everyone, I would
and have tried to spread the word to whoever is interested via this
forum.

I have found such an edge. And for $100 I will show you how to win that $100 in less than an hour playing EZ Pai Gow.
You will also receive my $1,000 DVD on Dice Setting for FREE !!!!!

I will not share it with others?

Quote: Ayecarumba

This is why I would keep it quiet. If all the sheep finally got a chance to turn the tables and use the shears, the rancher would be quick to pull out the shotgun. However, how much damage can one, very quiet, sheep do?

When gamblers stop flattering themselves as "the righteous underdog against the evil empire casino," and realize we're all participants in an activity on the same sheet of music, we'd have better gambling.

One quiet sheep cannot do much damage and to look at simply winning in terms of "damage" is more rancher-like than sheep-like.
Gambling operators monitor their business, and holes are quickly plugged.

Quote: Ayecarumba

This is why I would keep it quiet. If all the sheep finally got a chance to turn the tables and use the shears, the rancher would be quick to pull out the shotgun. However, how much damage can one, very quiet, sheep do?

When gamblers stop flattering themselves as "the righteous underdog against the evil empire casino," and realize we're all participants in an activity on the same sheet of music, we'd have better gambling.

One quiet sheep cannot do much damage and to look at simply winning in terms of "damage" is more rancher-like than sheep-like.
Gambling operators monitor their business, and holes are quickly plugged.

If lottery operators were losing money, they shut down. If people win by the rules, and with a positive EV offered, good for them, enjoy the window of positive EV.

I have found such an edge. Here is what you need to do: Study the last 250 numbers to hit on the roulette board. We'll be looking for currently hot numbers. The key word is currently...

Publicity? Why do you think the casinos have all those photos of people with humungous checks in front of them up on the wall and in the newspapers? The casinos love to see advertisements about card counting seminars because they know it will draw in some fresh prey who are not good at counting.

I'd rather publicity about a Lotto "mis-alignment" than have it persist for a very few sharpies. And those who think that they can catch up with a ship that has already sailed just as dumb as those who buy lottery tickets to begin with.

Yet, if I discovered some magic way to hear the cards as they went thru the shuffler and know what sequence was in the shoe, I'd probably just play for awhile and then let them know eventually.

I've always wondered about the professors who did that wheel speed calculator but were warned off about publishing anything by another set of professors who didn't want the money-tree publicized. The successful thief doesn't want a blabbermouth to ruin his private little ATM, but there is always someone who keeps his eyes open and discovers what is going on eventually.

Consider the case of the Canadian statistician in this Wired Magazine article: Mohan Srivastava figured out a flaw in the design of a particular scratch off ticket game that allowed him to pick winners with 90% accuracy. He figured that given the amount of time it would take him to manually analyze each ticket, he could probably clear $600 per day. He figured that the $150k CAN per year was not enough for him to do it full time, and shared the weakness with Lottery Officials. Eventually, they shut the game down.

I don't think I would have shared the location of this little gold mine.

I've known of hundreds of great plays over the years and I have never shared the info with anyone outside other professionals and only when it further benefited me to share. Why anyone would think it's a good idea to spread info on a great play or even alert the casino is beyond me.

I'd report someone monkeying with a slot machine. I ain't never going to be playing that machine or any other slot machine so what have I got to lose.

Quote: FleaStiff

I'd report someone monkeying with a slot machine. I ain't never going to be playing that machine or any other slot machine so what have I got to lose.

Tampering with a machine IMO is not an "edge" or a play, it's cheating and illegal.

Quote: JimMorrison

I've known of hundreds of great plays over the years and I have never shared the info with anyone outside other professionals and only when it further benefited me to share. Why anyone would think it's a good idea to spread info on a great play or even alert the casino is beyond me.

What if your good poker buddy had a tell? If you need to face him in the final of a tournament, wouldn't that info be very handy? Would you let him know?

I think having an, "edge" on a game is alot like that. What you do with the info depends on the value you place on the financial well being of your, "buddy" vs. the value you place on the potential cash in your bank. While there are a few who would look out for the House's interest like a "buddy"; to most, the House is a rich aquaintaince who never picked up the tab before, and can easily afford the check now.

Quote: Ayecarumba

What if your good poker buddy had a tell? If you need to face him in the final of a tournament, wouldn't that info be very handy? Would you let him know?

No, I would not let him know.

There are issues with revealing an edge to the public. It's pretty much a known fact that the more people who know about an advantage and can exploit it, the less of an advantage there is. A good example is with sports betting and moving the lines as a result of many people betting on one team. It happens a lot in the market too.

There is also a difference in sharing ideas about an edge, and giving someone step by step instructions on how to find that edge and exploit it. Let's be honest here, the majority of gamblers (and people for that matter) are too stupid to even handle understanding the basic rules of the games they play let alone adopt a winning strategy to overcome the house advantage. Becoming a winning player and being able to beat the games using an edge that can be recorded and analyzed is not the easiest of things to do.

The other thing that really ticks me off is people seem to demand exact details just for the sake of being "skeptical". It's as though they want something for nothing and they still aren't satisfied even if you show them the goods. I'll tell a friend or two that I have a way to beat a casino game and I get the "House always wins" lecture. Then I say, "Well, I can mathematically prove my edge exists. It's documented and I have done a fair bit of research on it" Then the real good stuff happens. "I dunno, where do you play? How long have you done this? How much do you make? I need exact figures. How many other people do you play with? What are their names? Where do they live?" I'm surprised I don't get asked for my credit card number! People just want to know stuff that is none of their damn business. I have since decided if people want to know exactly what I do, they can meet me and I will be more that willing to tell/show them. This whole idea of posting my playbook online just to run the risk of ruining a good thing as well as getting hounded by skeptics is one thing I am not interested in. At least a person willing to meet in a casino is showing some kind of interest.

The only thing I can contribute really is that my edge can be documented and can be proven. I just don't feel the need to post about it publicly when the math tells me what I already know.

Some years ago I found a bug in an online casino game which allowed me to place bets in a manner so that I could force the result to be only a win or a push. So I couldn't even lose on it. It required a complex betting pattern for the bug to appear, so I figured that I was probably the only one to know about it. I kept playing at this casino and cashing out only moderate sums to make the opportunity last longer. I knew that if I attack it too aggressively, the bug gets exposed and the casino will never pay my winnings. The problem was that I didn't precisely know how aggressive or conservative I should be to maximize it's total value. I also did a large amount of cover play on other games to hide the trail to the malfunctioning game and to make it seem like I was just getting lucky with big bets.

The bug lasted for 3 months before being fixed and I made a decent buck out of it. The casino never contacted me about it so they seemed to swallow it as their own oversight, or perhaps my cover play was sufficient for them to never notice my advantage play.

I told one close friend that I had found a very profitable loophole and he desperately tried to make me tell him about it. He even took me to a bar and gave me shots to make me drunk, so that I would tell him the secret but I knew well that the info was too valuable to be shared with anyone.

Quote: MarieBicurie

I'll tell a friend or two that I have a way to beat a casino game and I get the "House always wins" lecture. Then I say, "Well, I can mathematically prove my edge exists. It's documented and I have done a fair bit of research on it" Then the real good stuff happens. "I dunno, where do you play? How long have you done this? How much do you make? I need exact figures. How many other people do you play with? What are their names? Where do they live?" I'm surprised I don't get asked for my credit card number! People just want to know stuff that is none of their damn business. I have since decided if people want to know exactly what I do, they can meet me and I will be more that willing to tell/show them.

OMG, this sounds so much like a conversation of one of Jerry Logan's identities with MathExtremist :)


My opinion - if you have found an edge, but don't want to share the details, just shut up. Nobody (except, maybe, mrjjj) is interested in learning how much you are making per week using your secret method. Saying something like "I have this great edge, but I won't tell you where it is, because you are too stupid to understand it anyway" is just so ... jerrylogany ... it makes me cringe.

Quote: weaselman

OMG, this sounds so much like a conversation of one of Jerry Logan's identities with MathExtremist :)


My opinion - if you have found an edge, but don't want to share the details, just shut up. Nobody (except, maybe, mrjjj) is interested in learning how much you are making per week using your secret method. Saying something like "I have this great edge, but I won't tell you where it is, because you are too stupid to understand it anyway" is just so ... jerrylogany ... it makes me cringe.

Well, I never said I wouldn't share it. I'm more than happy sharing it, I just don't see the need to share it publicly. And again, there is a big difference in telling someone about your edge vs. building them an exact manual on how to do what you do. Take Jufo81's example. Saying "I found a glitch in the payout structure on one of the VLT's and with a proper betting strategy you can exploit it so you break even or make a profit!" is a perfect way to explain his strategy. You seem to prefer he say something like, "I found a group of VLT's in the Flamingo at the bar near the sports book that have a payout glitch in the Spanish 21 game and here is how I take advantage of it!" My only question is, what can you bring to the table that deserves that detailed a response?

Again, I never said I refused to share with people. It just seems like everyone wants more than just something for nothing when it comes to beating a casino. They want EVERYTHING for nothing! It gets old after a while. I really doubt it's JerryLogany as you put it. I'm willing to share my edge/strategy with interested parties, just NOT PUBLICLY!

Quote: weaselman

OMG, this sounds so much like a conversation of one of Jerry Logan's identities with MathExtremist :)

Ouch. :)

I don't recall ever pestering Jerry for his edge, but that's because he never suggested he had one. He was just playing a progression on admittedly -EV video poker games. I think the true system hucksters are more dangerous to the unwary and greedy gambler -- the sellers who say they have the edge but won't tell you why or how unless you pay for their magic casino-beating system. I haven't researched it, but there are probably several states with consumer protection laws strong enough to make it an offense to sell a betting system which is demonstrably ineffective.

As for MarieBicurie's edge, I'm always curious about the advantages which exist in casinos for truly smart players. Especially if they're on games not played with cards.

Okay, so perhaps someone has noticed that one machine is too close to the exhaust vent and its RNG chip over heats or something. No one would open his yap about it, I hope. Unless he really needed to borrow some quarters in order to exploit it. There was a time when one refurbished machine had a dollar bill slot that gave double credits. That machine became popular but clearly it could become popular only if people talked about it. It didn't last long though.

Its like the tip on a horse. If you have a tip on a horse you don't have to give much in the way of details, but if you are tapped out and have approached your laundryman for a loan, you will have to give a bit more than just the race number and horse's name in order to get the loan. Either way, you know the laundryman will be betting that horse and whittling down the odds a bit.

The wise person will Look Out For Number One and keep his yap shut. The more gossipy person will tell everyone in sight. Most people will fall somewhere in between depending upon their nature and their alcohol status at the time. Any such edge is likely to be slight and also likely to be non existent. If certainty and magnitude have increased, then only open your yap about it if you need bankrolling to exploit it.

Quote: MathExtremist

Ouch. :)

I don't recall ever pestering Jerry for his edge, but that's because he never suggested he had one. He was just playing a progression on admittedly -EV video poker games.

Well, he did not say he had an "edge" per se, just "a way to win consistently" ... I guess, that's a big difference :)

I was thinking more about Singer, than JL at the moment, your attempts to debate with him publicly, and his claims, that he won't give any details publicly, but anyone is welcome to come to Vegas and see him play, and make his fortune.

Quote:

I think the true system hucksters are more dangerous to the unwary and greedy gambler -- the sellers who say they have the edge but won't tell you why or how unless you pay for their magic casino-beating system. I haven't researched it, but there are probably several states with consumer protection laws strong enough to make it an offense to sell a betting system which is demonstrably ineffective.

I actually think, a defrauded buyer can recover in any state, under the "unfit for the primary purpose" clause.
However, technically, this is usually next to impossible, as the seller is usually in another jurisdiction, if you even know his real name and location at all, and the amount of money in question is just not significant enough to pursue.
Besides, if a guy was stupid enough to pay for it in the first place ...

Quote:

As for MarieBicurie's edge, I'm always curious about the advantages which exist in casinos for truly smart players. Especially if they're on games not played with cards.

Yes, I am curious too. Even without that "played with cards" exception :)

But the reality is, that most of people, who claim they have advantage, actually do not. They say they do because either they are just not very smart and genuinely think they do, or because they just want a little attention.
That is why, whenever somebody says "I have an advantage, but I won't give you the details.", Rob Singer et. all comes to mind immediately.
I fully understand not wanting to share the details publicly - it is not easy, and may be harmful to the edge itself sometimes. But, if you do not plan on sharing the details, why bother to even mention it publicly at all? What could possibly be the motive for that?

I would tell everyone.......instead of exploiting it myself, I would rather make less money selling DVD's and holding seminars on how to exploit the "weakness".....I mean, why make more money exploiting it yourself?...It makes more sense to me to make less money and to share it with everyone else..........Oh wait....... dice setting coaches already do this......LMAO what a scam!

Quote: weaselman

Well, he did not say he had an "edge" per se, just "a way to win consistently" ... I guess, that's a big difference :)

I was thinking more about Singer, than JL at the moment, your attempts to debate with him publicly, and his claims, that he won't give any details publicly, but anyone is welcome to come to Vegas and see him play, and make his fortune.

Singer's issue was less about claiming he had an edge, which I'm not sure he actually said, and more about claiming how there was a vast conspiracy to rig (ahem, "intentionally program to behave non-randomly") all video poker machines. That was the point which, when push came to shove, he was unable/unwilling to demonstrate.

Winning consistently at VP isn't that hard, especially if you use a negative progression and switch denominations all the time. That just means you've changed the shape of the distribution and made small frequent wins more likely than large infrequent losses. It doesn't mean you've changed the expected value of that distribution at all. I personally know a VP player who is far luckier than Singer ever claimed to be, but he admits it's all luck; he's not out selling books on how to beat VP by changing your bets.

At any rate, I understand the parallel you're drawing. And I'm not sure why MarieBicurie would mention having an edge publicly but not be willing to have further (public) discussion. That's a question for him (her?).

Quote: weaselman

I fully understand not wanting to share the details publicly - it is not easy, and may be harmful to the edge itself sometimes. But, if you do not plan on sharing the details, why bother to even mention it publicly at all? What could possibly be the motive for that?

Maybe you should direct that question the the OP and ask why he'd start a thread on the subject. I was just answering him.

Quote: vert1276

I would tell everyone.......instead of exploiting it myself, I would rather make less money selling DVD's and holding seminars on how to exploit the "weakness".....I mean, why make more money exploiting it yourself?...It makes more sense to me to make less money and to share it with everyone else..........Oh wait....... dice setting coaches already do this......LMAO what a scam!

I agree the overwhelming majority of dice influencers are scammers. However, I will remain open-minded about the practice, as theoretically, if you could perform a throw that would hit the wall in the exact same way with some degree of consistency, it would have to make a difference. I'm not sure if a human being is capable of this accuracy and precision with dice, but like I said I'll remain open-minded.

That said, the problem here and the reason these scam artists can make their money is that in most cases casino management play into the paranoia. If a con-artist says he can influence dice, takes his mark(s) to the casino and takes forever to throw the dice, he will probably get warned or even have the dice taken from him. That will only play up his story that what he is going works, and get the marks to pay out of their nose for information.