Win goal....then leave?
Some will teach, if/when you hit 20% of your BR, go home. Keep in mind, just because a person teaches it, does not mean they FOLLOW IT.
We'll use a 1K BR as an easy example. Here is MY VIEW on the subject. It does not mean I'm right, its only an opinion. So 20% is $200.
Taking off 20% of that, we have $160. If I hit the $200 profit, I KEEP ON PLAYING. This is assuming you dont have to leave for other reasons. Why stop at 20% when it might turn into 35% or more? If/when I hit the $200, if it dropped to $160 during my extended play, I would THEN QUIT. So we have a min. NET of $160 and a max. of......God only knows. It could be a kicka** day?! Third option of course is that we dont even hit the $200 goal. Question to you...... when do you quit/leave the casino based on 1K?
Ken
that day. When I hit it, I leave. No questions, no 'just one
more bet', I leave. If you're a serious player, not a recreational
one, you have to have an iron clad discipline.
I think "bankroll" in this context is as meaningless as "session". Just like we are playing one life-long session, we are also using one bank account the whole time, unless of course, one is betting an amount, that is a significant portion of that bank account (more than, say, 0.005%), in which case, I'd say it is a problem by itself.
I suppose, if I lost every single bet for an hour or so, I might get frustrated an leave. But realistically, I think a "win goal" and a "stop loss" are two equally silly concepts, nothing to do with discipline or "bankroll management" or any clever term like that. If you hit your "win goal" and leave earlier than you otherwise would, not only you are missing out on the fun you could have, you are also forfeiting the opportunity to possibly win twice as much.
Even if one has a Quit Point, its hard to abide by it.
Whats that about eating just one salted peanut or just one potato chip?
Quote: weaselmanI never go home too early. Since, like many here, I play for fun, not for money, I go to have N hours of fun. And I will have N hours of fun. I bet small, and in an extremely unlikely event that I run out of my "bankroll" before N hours, I'll use an ATM machine.
I think "bankroll" in this context is as meaningless as "session". Just like we are playing one life-long session, we are also using one bank account the whole time, unless of course, one is betting an amount, that is a significant portion of that bank account (more than, say, 0.005%), in which case, I'd say it is a problem by itself.
I suppose, if I lost every single bet for an hour or so, I might get frustrated an leave. But realistically, I think a "win goal" and a "stop loss" are two equally silly concepts, nothing to do with discipline or "bankroll management" or any clever term like that. If you hit your "win goal" and leave earlier than you otherwise would, not only you are missing out on the fun you could have, you are also forfeiting the opportunity to possibly win twice as much.
"If you hit your "win goal" and leave earlier than you otherwise would, not only you are missing out on the fun you could have, you are also forfeiting the opportunity to possibly win twice as much" >>> As I stated.
Ken
Quote: weaselmanBut realistically, I think a "win goal" and a "stop loss" are two equally silly concepts, nothing to do with discipline or "bankroll management" or any clever term like that. If you hit your "win goal" and leave earlier than you otherwise would, not only you are missing out on the fun you could have, you are also forfeiting the opportunity to possibly win twice as much.
Fun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money. Playing is boring, I want
to leave ASAP. If I don't have a win goal, I don't know when to leave. If I wanted
to make twice as much, I'd bet twice as much. Like the old timers used to say:
"Get in, get it done, and get out." Leave everything else to the hobby players and
tourists.
Ken
Quote: mrjjj"Fun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money" >>> BINGO, I agree.
Ken
I remember in an interview, Chip Reese, the poker champ, was asked what was fun about poker to him. He said nothing, the fun had left a couple decades ago. Its like asking somebody asking whats fun about their job. Not much..
Quote: EvenBobFun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money. Playing is boring, I want
to leave ASAP. If I don't have a win goal, I don't know when to leave. If I wanted
to make twice as much, I'd bet twice as much. Like the old timers used to say:
"Get in, get it done, and get out." Leave everything else to the hobby players and
tourists.
Quote: mrjjj"Fun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money" >>> BINGO, I agree.
Ken
You don't play for fun? Do you make 50k+ a year gambling as your primary source of income? If the answer is yes then I congratulate you as this is an impressive feat. If the answer is no then what the heck are you doing in a casino? You have to know that your expectation is to lose and if you can't enjoy the games then you shouldn't be there in the first place.
Additionally, if you are a professional then a win goal is just plain stupid. Every professional knows you should play as long as you can while you have the advantage, it doesn't matter whether you are up or down at the time. I absolutely agree with weaselman.
Quote: iwannaiguanaYou don't play for fun? Do you make 50k+ a year gambling as your primary source of income? If the answer is yes then I congratulate you as this is an impressive feat. If the answer is no then what the heck are you doing in a casino? You have to know that your expectation is to lose and if you can't enjoy the games then you shouldn't be there in the first place.
Additionally, if you are a professional then a win goal is just plain stupid. Every professional knows you should play as long as you can while you have the advantage, it doesn't matter whether you are up or down at the time. I absolutely agree with weaselman.
I do appreciate your post but its mostly based on OPINION, correct?
Ken
Of course this method works for me because I have the discipline not to dive back into my pockets for the $200 profit if I start losing. For someone without that self control, leaving the table with the $200 profit may be a better play.
Side Note - Once playing $5 Black Jack, I was having a winning night and kept pocketing $25 every time I'd get up to $125. A couple hours later I was ready to leave, thinking I was up about $150. I actually had $340 in my pockets and didn't even know it! That topped off a good night.
Quote: mrjjjI do appreciate your post but its mostly based on OPINION, correct?
Ken
Ok so you expect to lose, you have no fun doing it, yet you still play. Yes, it is my opinion that that behavior borders on moronic.
Quote: EvenBobIts like asking somebody asking whats fun about their job. Not much..
I have fun at my job about a third of the time, a third of the time it's annoying and a third it's boring. That'll work for me.
Quote: iwannaiguana
Additionally, if you are a professional then a win goal is just plain stupid. Every professional knows you should play as long as you can while you have the advantage, it doesn't matter whether you are up or down at the time.
A pro always has the advantage, it doesn't come and go like magic. Its long term, not the next 20min.
Quote: EvenBobA pro always has the advantage, it doesn't come and go like magic. Its long term, not the next 20min.
If the count is negative in blackjack you obviously are playing with a disadvantage. Getting heat can also mean that your play isn't going to last much more than the next 20 minutes. Even the best poker players will have a negative expectation when they're extremely tired, drunk, etc.
So I stand by what I said. If a pro is playing well and has no other obligations then they should play as long as they can until conditions become unfavorable.
Quote: iwannaiguanaIf a pro is playing well and has no other obligations then they should play as long as they can until conditions become unfavorable.
Why is it when someone goes to work, they don't stay as long as possible, and only as long as their shift. Why when you sit down to dinner don't you eat as much as possible, instead of a sensible meal. Why when you get in your car do you not drive as far as possible, instead of just driving to your destination. Nobody thinks those goals are silly. Why would you go into a casino without a win goal. Wait, let me guess. Because you don't know what you're doing?
Quote: EvenBobWhy is it when someone goes to work, they don't stay as long as possible, and only as long as their shift. Why when you sit down to dinner don't you eat as much as possible, instead of a sensible meal. Why when you get in your car do you not drive as far as possible, instead of just driving to your destination. Nobody thinks those goals are silly. Why would you go into a casino without a win goal. Wait, let me guess. Because you don't know what you're doing?
A person stops working because they are tired and want to go home.
A person stops eating because they are full.
A person stops driving because going past their destination has no utility.
These are all reasonable goals because stopping has a greater benefit than continuing on.
You are saying a professional player should leave because they don't want to make any more money? There is no logic is setting some arbitrary point where a pro decides, "I have made enough money today, I should leave before I make any more."
Let's compare this to your example of a work shift. Pretend that you are a car salesman and you made a sale to the first person who walked in this morning. Are you going to leave for the day because you have met your sales goal?
I'm not saying a win goal is bad for a casual player, but a professional should be smart to realize that win goals will only hurt profits.
Quote: iwannaiguanaA person stops working because they are tired and want to go home.
A person stops eating because they are full.
A person stops driving because going past their destination has no utility.
A person stops playing because he reached his goal and isn't a greedy moron.
Duh.
Quote: EvenBobFun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money. Playing is boring, I want
to leave ASAP.
Really? I hate to sound like mrjjj, but how much do you make per hour? What game are we talking about?
Quote:Why would you go into a casino without a win goal. Wait, let me guess. Because you don't know what you're doing?
To the contrary, because I know exactly what I am doing. I go to a casino because I want to have fun. When I want to make money I go to work. Why do you go to a casino if you find it boring? Is it because you do not know what you are doing or are just not skilled enough to find a decent job?
I'm with weaselman. The casinos do not offer very few games where a living can be made, and even if I could make a living by counting, by playing advantage Video Poker, by chasing biased wheels, by setting dice, by finding advantages in sports, by borrowing odds on craps, by making other player's doubles when they won't, by looking for dealers who expose hole cards, by taking advantage of coupons and temporary advantage play options, and so on and so forth, the living would require me spending hours and hours in a casino where it essentially becomes a job.
I have a job that pays very well and that I love.
Why would I want to take something that is fun (going to the casino) and make it boring and tedious? Why would I want to take on a job where you have a great deal of variance, where the rules can change at any time, and generally, pays much less per hour than what I am making now? Why would I want to take on a job that requires a great deal of discipline and self-control (to not become an addict, to take chances that makes me a non-advantage player, to not become an alcoholic)? I'll pass.
But to the original question, generally I plan to go to the casino for a fixed length of time and leave when (a) the time ends, (b) the money ends. During that time, money management is in play. I play in ranges of $100, meaning that I'll risk up to $100 at a table (craps excepted) and leave in increments of $100 or when I get bored.
Quote: EvenBobA person stops playing because he reached his goal and isn't a greedy moron.
Duh.
This is one reason why you could never be a professional. A professional is smart enough not to turn down free money.
The fact is that professional players don't use win goals. Plain and simple. If there are any LOGICAL arguments against this I am still waiting to hear them.
Quote: EvenBobA pro always has the advantage, it doesn't come and go like magic. Its long term, not the next 20min.
Actually, the advantage in a casino game is almost always transitory. The singular exception might be truly +EV video poker (e.g. FPDW). But basically everything else does indeed come and go -- not like magic, but like the math dictates. If you're hole-carding and the dealer goes home for the day, so does your advantage. If you're playing a +EV VP game with a progressive royal flush and someone else hits the royal, there goes your theo. Promos and other increased-valued marketing plays are always temporary, or at least cyclical (like 10x points on Tuesdays). The job of a professional advantage player is to know where and when the +EV plays are and to make them. When they're not available, the good ones stop playing. Not because of a win goal but because the next bet is no longer a good investment.
Additionally, a professional gambler with a "win goal" makes about as much sense as a business with a "revenue cap". No business in their right mind is going to say "we've made enough money this year, let's all go home until January." In addition to that being antithetical to the purpose of running a capitalist business in the first place (i.e. the accumulation of capital), it also invites competition and makes it less likely that the business will succeed in the future. If a consultant turns away business because they've made enough for the year, they shouldn't really wonder where all the clients went the following year. Similarly, if you're a pro gambler and you repeatedly leave money on the table because you've hit your "win goal", some other pro is going to come in and take over part of your market -- and they won't stop when they've hit a win goal. You've just put yourself out of business.
Quote: iwannaiguanaThis is one reason why you could never be a professional. A professional is smart enough not to turn down free money.
The fact is that professional players don't use win goals. Plain and simple. If there are any LOGICAL arguments against this I am still waiting to hear them.
This is on point. Professionals take advantage of favorable situations as long as they can, as long as they exist. Most of the time, the reason for leaving the table is because of heat or the game turning unfavorable. I have never heard of a professional leaving a favorable situation because they were satisfied with the amount they won for the session.
Only way a win threshold may ever come into play for a professional is if they believe a certain win amount bring more heat at a certain casino.
EvenBob is either delusional, or is just stirring the pot to be an ass. I'm not sure which in this case.
Ken
Ken
Quote: mrjjj"I hate to sound like mrjjj, but how much do you make per hour?" >>> (lol) When do I ask this question?
Ken
Sorry, if I offended you. The question you asked was indeed about per week earnings, not per hour, which is of course a different thing entirely.
Quote: weaselmanSorry, if I offended you. The question you asked was indeed about per week earnings, not per hour, which is of course a different thing entirely.
Not offended at all. I just dont recall saying to anyone here....."hey Billy Bob, how much per week (or hour) do you make at the casino"? Do you know why I dont like to ask that question?
Ken
Quote: weaselmanYou asked people if they make 10K a week from gambling or something like that. I am too lazy to look for the link right now, but if you insist, I can find it. No I don't know why you don't like asking it (not that I care), I also don't know why you evidently do things you don't like doing (not that I care either).
I dont like asking it because USUALLY it'll be a lie. So my logic is, why should I even ask?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjI dont like asking it because USUALLY it'll be a lie. So my logic is, why should I even ask?
Ken
I don't know ... Why did you? (I do know why I did...)
Quote: weaselmanI don't know ... Why did you? (I do know why I did...)
I have all day for you rookie.
Quote: mrjjj"Fun? I don't play to have fun, I'm there to make money" >>> BINGO, I agree.
Ken
Two kinds of players haunt casinos. One kind is there to gamble and hopes to make money by doing so. The other kind is there to simply play, and doesn't care as much about whether or not they leave the tables with a wad of profit. I am in the latter group, as are others who post here. Just one of those situations where you've got two kinds of people with similar interests but different objectives.
Quote: kpBusinesses have revenue caps just as consultants have limits on how much they are willing to work. It's called having a life, or in the case of a business, letting your employees have a life. I don't care if you're making $100/hr. You can't work for 30 hours a day, every day, for 8 days a week, 400 days a year. You need rest. You need a beer. You spouse needs some loving. Likewise, you can't work your employees that hard either so your company makes more money. Some companies choose not to grow. Some people and companies will trade earning additional revenue for more leisure time.
I would never work for a company that has a revenue cap. Good businesses let people have lives but aren't stupid enough to impose something like a revenue cap. You don't need to work your employees more than 40 hours a week to be successful. Businesses should have limits on how long they work employees because these limits make sense. They do not need to limit the amount of money they make.
For this same reason a smart professional gambler is never going to have a win cap. He knows how to separate work and leisure. If he only wants to work 20 or 30 hours a week he makes that decision. But he's never going to leave the casino simply because he is winning "too much".
To your surprise, others at the table are being extremely sympathetic towards the donk, several of them saying things like "tough beat" and "i could never have folded that either". Donk on the other hand is visibly pissed, and chucks a wad of bills at the dealer to rebuy, earning himself a warning in the process. He mutters something about a fortune cookie lying to him, and hopes that playing only red cards going forward will bring luck back to his side. At this moment the casino manager walks over and announces that they are getting rid of the bad beat jackpot and hence everything needs to be paid out today, so the bad beat threshold is being lowered from aces-full to sevens and fives two pair. The cocky young fellow sitting beside the donk is unaware that his expensive new shades are giving off a perfect reflection of his cards. That gorgeous blonde girl to your left won't stop touching herself, because someone told her it brings 'good luck'.
.... still going to walk?
Quote: kpBusinesses have revenue caps just as consultants have limits on how much they are willing to work. It's called having a life, or in the case of a business, letting your employees have a life. I don't care if you're making $100/hr. You can't work for 30 hours a day, every day, for 8 days a week, 400 days a year. You need rest. You need a beer. You spouse needs some loving. Likewise, you can't work your employees that hard either so your company makes more money. Some companies choose not to grow. Some people and companies will trade earning additional revenue for more leisure time.
That's a time limit, not a revenue cap. I am a consultant who bills hourly so I am very familiar with your scenario. I can assure you that if my hourly rate were to double, I would not immediately cut my hours in half. Similarly, a company whose revenues were $1M in 2010 would not simply furlough everyone if they made $1M in the first 6 months of 2011. Most businesses try to make as much money as possible in the time they've allotted to operate, typically 2000 hours/year per employee (or way more if you're a tech startup or an associate in a big law firm. :). A revenue cap, on the other hand, would be trying to make a fixed amount of money in as short a time as possible. I don't know any business that operates like that.
I'm not saying it's the best approach, but it happens for sole traders.
For those who say a pro poker player will never leave an advantageous situation, that just doesn't make sense. It is their job, and people do not always choose to work as many hours as there are in the day. I often have the option of working extra hours for overtime, but would just rather be doing something other than my job.
Quote: MathExtremistThat's a time limit, not a revenue cap.
True. A lot of people don't see the difference. They think if you're making $x per hour, you should keep working. Why ever stop? Why let your employees go home if you can make more money by forcing overtime?
I do have a win goal at work. If I'm having a good productive day and get my work done then I may knock off early and hut the pub. Likewise, if I'm having a bad day and nothing is working, I'll knock off early and hit the pub before I mess anything up. Maybe it's not so much a win/loss goal as I like to knock off early and hit the pub. What time is it, anyway?
As a tourist in a casino, I have a method of playing VP that will limit my time at the machine. It does incorporate win/loss goals, but the primary objective is to make me stop drinking and gambling in order to get up and move around awhile. I'll be back later today or tomorrow playing another session, so the results of the prior session are not that important in the grand scheme of things.
Quote: kpTrue. A lot of people don't see the difference. They think if you're making $x per hour, you should keep working. Why ever stop? Why let your employees go home if you can make more money by forcing overtime?
I do have a win goal at work. If I'm having a good productive day and get my work done then I may knock off early and hut the pub. Likewise, if I'm having a bad day and nothing is working, I'll knock off early and hit the pub before I mess anything up. Maybe it's not so much a win/loss goal as I like to knock off early and hit the pub. What time is it, anyway?
As a tourist in a casino, I have a method of playing VP that will limit my time at the machine. It does incorporate win/loss goals, but the primary objective is to make me stop drinking and gambling in order to get up and move around awhile. I'll be back later today or tomorrow playing another session, so the results of the prior session are not that important in the grand scheme of things.
I can agree with this. Time goals make sense. If the perceived value of going home early outweighs the value of making more money then obviously you should leave early. Win goals, however, are mostly illogical.
I can understand how casual gamblers have win goals/loss limits when they step foot inside a casino.
A. Casual gamblers can only afford/want to lose so much.
B. Prospect theory states that losses loom larger than gains. If someone is ahead $200 the risk of losing $200 usually outweighs the chance of winning another $200.
These factors should not apply to a professional gambler.
is because gambling for them is such a hit and miss operation they
can't imagine it being anything else. For them its 'grab all you can
for as long as you can', because tomorrow you'll give it all back.
Do you really think professional gamblers have such a poor
understanding of their own game, that their attitude when they enter
a casino is, "I'm playing as long as I possibly can to make as much as
I possibly can"? Thats a rank amateurs outlook, one of desperation.
A pro is in control of every aspect of what he does, he has the edge
over the casino, not the other way around.
Quote: EvenBobThe reason most people here can't fathom having a win goal,
is because gambling for them is such a hit and miss operation they
can't imagine it being anything else. For them its 'grab all you can
for as long as you can', because tomorrow you'll give it all back.
Do you really think professional gamblers have such a poor
understanding of their own game, that their attitude when they enter
a casino is, "I'm playing as long as I possibly can to make as much as
I possibly can"? Thats a rank amateurs outlook, one of desperation.
A pro is in control of every aspect of what he does, he has the edge
over the casino, not the other way around.
Sigh. You are obviously impervious to all logic that others in the forum have tried to explain to you. Once again your statement is full of contradictions while managing to not make any logical arguments.
Yes, a professional player DOES plan to win as much as he can when he walks into the casino. This is why he is a professional. He leaves win/loss goals to the amateurs. He does has the edge and he is not going to leave money on the table.
When there is a donk at the poker table the amateur wins a $100 hand and walks away. The professional fleeces him for all hes worth and walks away with $1000.
When the count is high in blackjack the amateur wins $200 and calls it a day. The professional presses his bets and walks away with $2000.
Quote: iwannaiguana
Yes, a professional player DOES plan to win as much as he can when he walks into the casino
I'm curious as to how you know this, exactly. Its certainly not what I was taught about professional BJ decades ago. My goal then was to let the edge work for me, play the best I can, never play more than 4-5 hours a day (goal) and earn a certain amount per hour, on average (goal). Cathy Hulbert, the former BJ pro turned poker pro, says the same thing about poker. She goes to a poker room, plans to stay 5-6 hours (goal), and has a definite profit in mind for the time she spends there (goal). Thats why she chooses her games very carefully, plays carefully, and leaves when she's done. She could sit there for 16 hours and play till everybody is out of money, but thats what amateurs do, isn't it. Sure it is..
Pro's are in control of every aspect of their game, including how much they earn. Thats why they're called 'pro'.
This is what everyone has been saying all along. I advise you actually read the previous posts instead of just coming up with inane comments.
Quote: iwannaiguanaOk now you're saying something completely different. Yes, pros do usually have some time limit/goal. Completely different than a win/loss limit.
.
You can't be serious! How in god's name can you have a goal of 'winning as much as you can', as you claim pro's do, if there's a time limit???? Are they psychic? Do they have a crystal ball? They know for a fact they'll win in the 5 hour span? They know nothing of the kind. What they DO know is they have an edge that will manifest itself if they just play their game. I have a win goal, not a time goal, because I'm not playing a card game like BJ or poker. But a goal is a goal, its different for every game. Cathy Hulbert knows if she sets a reasonable time goal and plays 4-5 times a week, her edge will manifest itself. She may not win every day, but she will make a profit in the long run. I know if I set a reasonable win goal, I'll make that amount and come back and do it again next time. Its called knowing your game and working your edge. And without goals you're rowboat in the ocean without oars.
Quote: heatherTwo kinds of players haunt casinos. One kind is there to gamble and hopes to make money by doing so. The other kind is there to simply play, and doesn't care as much about whether or not they leave the tables with a wad of profit. I am in the latter group, as are others who post here. Just one of those situations where you've got two kinds of people with similar interests but different objectives.
I have stated many times, I have no issue with that. If Billy Bob wants to take $200 down to the casino and 'goof around' with his buddies, play a few games, have a couple beers, go for it. BUT I then dont want to hear from Billy Bob that he's pissed off for losing his $200. He (you) can not have it both ways. The rookie player should never be mad when he loses it all, he has no discipline and no plan.
Ken
Quote: iwannaiguanaOk now you're saying something completely different.
That's EvenBob :)
He is going to try to make you argue against your own point now ...
Quote: EvenBobI have a win goal, not a time goal, because I'm not playing a card game like BJ or poker.
What game are you playing? Is it a secret?
