mathmatical Help in calculating possibility
If I am calculating it right, there is a 1/8 chance in losing the entire bankroll. 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2. -2000
there is a 4/8 chance of getting the 400 4x400= 1600
there is a 2/8 chance of getting the 75 2X75 = 150
there is a 1/8 chance of getting the 50 1x50 = 50
1800 or an expected 200 lose over eight visits.
1. After reading your site I think Baccarat, dealer option, may be a better bet if I can find lower house commission. Maybe craps since there is no house commission.
2. What would be the best money system to win at least 200 most of the time and expected loses low.
thank in advance
Quote: ihatepainI would like to leave Vegas more often a winner so I can have a story. I will only play one to six hands and then quit. I have a 2000 bank roll and want to make about 200 to 400 most of my visits. I want to bet 400 at pai gow, which I usually play. If I win I walk away very happy. If not, Then I would bet 500, if I win I would walk away with 75 up very happy. If not, Then I would bet 1000 and if I win I would walk away with 50 up very happy. If I lose that I would walk away spending my bankroll. I know overall I will lose money but I like saying I won and am very happy.
If I am calculating it right, there is a 1/8 chance in losing the entire bankroll. 1/2 times 1/2 times 1/2. -2000
there is a 4/8 chance of getting the 400 4x400= 1600
there is a 2/8 chance of getting the 75 2X75 = 150
there is a 1/8 chance of getting the 50 1x50 = 50
1800 or an expected 200 lose over eight visits.
1. After reading your site I think Baccarat, dealer option, may be a better bet if I can find lower house commission. Maybe craps since there is no house commission.
2. What would be the best money system to win at least 200 most of the time and expected loses low.
thank in advance
Your calculations are off. For starters, if you win your first hand, you're not up $400, you're up $380 because of the 5% commission. Secondly, you don't have a 1 in 2 chance of winning a hand. If you don't bank, and ignoring ties, your probability of winning a hand is 48.9%. So, you have:
Win 380 = 0.489
Win 75 = 0.250
Win 50 = 0.128
Lose 2000 = 0.133
Total Exp Value = 1,944.97 or 97.2% return (which, not so coincidentally, works out to a 2.75% house edge, which equals the house edge in Pai Gow presented on the Wizard's Pai Gow page)
This "game" you want to play will cost you about $55 every time you play it. I guess it's not that bad. But, keep in mind, you will lose your $2,000 13.3% percent of the time.
It's true, you would improve your odds of being a winner and increase your expected value slightly under the banker bet in Baccarat, but I'd say that since the difference isn't all that much, play the game that gives you the most enjoyment.
