Sports Handicapping Question

I've been researching sports handicappers on the net, knowing nothing about them at all. Most of them make claims that last year, on football or Bball or baseball or hockey, they were anywhere from 64% to 78% correct in their picks for a season, depending on which site I'm looking at.

How is that possible? Last year when I started a thread about over and under, I was told if you could do 58%, you should be making a living from it. Yet these guys are doing 75%? Am I wrong to say its all total BS? If I could bet sports at a 75% win rate, why on earth would I be selling the picks for $10 a day.

You are right. It is total BS.

Quote: EvenBob

If I could bet sports at a 75% win rate, why on earth would I be selling the picks for $10 a day.

You answered your own question here. They're full of it.

Quote: JimMorrison

You answered your own question here. They're full of it.

So how do they get repeat business? You're not going to make much on a one shot scam thing. Everybody who subscribed will know for a painful fact you didn't do 75% last year.

Quote: EvenBob

So how do they get repeat business? You're not going to make much on a one shot scam thing. Everybody who subscribed will know for a painful fact you didn't do 75% last year.

I'd guess marketing, marketing and more marketing. They aren't putting out a quality product so they have to get new business.

The old scam with the 900 numbers would be if 100 people called up for the Giants/Cowboys game they'd give 50 people the Giants and 50 the Cowboys. Half the customers would be happy and next week they'd do it again and 25 people would think they're great, etc etc

Quote: JimMorrison

The old scam with the 900 numbers would be if 100 people called up for the Giants/Cowboys game they'd give 50 people the Giants and 50 the Cowboys. Half the customers would be happy and next week they'd do it again and 25 people would think they're great, etc etc

But a handicapper isn't doing that. He's giving the same picks to everybody, so they'd all be losers. He has to constantly troll for new suckers. I'm thinking people who subscribe to handicappers are the same as people who buy gambling systems. When they get screwed (not if), they just move on to the next guy. A sucker is never satisfied till he's been sucked dry.

Years ago I met a guy named Ben Burns, who now runs a sports betting website http://www.benburns.com

I actually had dinner with him and some friends here in Thailand where he was living at the time.

He gave us a free login and user name to his site for 6 months and I did well in NHL and American Football.
In fact he tipped us Tampa Bay at 40:1 before the season started, and they went on to win the Superbowl.
I cannot remember the year but it would be about 8 years ago or more.

My point is that this website has independently verified statistics kept of his hit rate and he certainly was Number 1 at
the time in NHL and Football, and I suspect he is still up there.

Quote: Pando

Years ago I met a guy named Ben Burns, who now runs a sports betting website http://www.benburns.com

His page is funky, to say the least. Is he still in business? He has nothing you can see since 1999..

Do not know anyone that wins sportsbetting.

Quote: EvenBob

His page is funky, to say the least. Is he still in business? He has nothing you can see since 1999..

If you look through the pages on his site you can see that ths site;

http://www.vegasexperts.com/hc_results_new.asp

which documents some recent results

Quote: Pando

If you look through the pages on his site you can see that ths site;

http://www.vegasexperts.com/hc_results_new.asp

which documents some recent results

For example;
Burns' Easter Afternoon O/U BEST BET! (CRAZY 23-4): With yesterday's winner on Seattle/Oak "over" the total, Ben Burns is now a REMARKABLE 23-4-3 his L30 MLB totals. That includes an INSANE 10-2-1 YTD RECORD in 2011 & an equally AWESOME 13-2-2 STREAK, dating back to last season. Seriously, those are OVER THE TOP NUMBERS. His latest goes this afternoon. Do NOT miss out!

This is how some of them do it (I know that Scott Ferrell does it for one, from observing his site for a while)... you predict so many different games and types of bets that in one of them you build up an impressive streak, and trumpet it over the lousy results.

Shout about 5-1 weekend's, 7-2 total's streak etc. The punter looks in and says "hot dang, they are doing well". Plus the cost most of these guys charge for a pick seems to be much higher than $10.

And if you do the sums, to make even a $10 pick worth buying, you need to be betting much more than $10.

Sport picks are a triumph of marketing over realism, and if you can keep getting fish to bite, then you'll do okay... the most honest picker I've seen is this guy ::

professionalgambler.com

I think it's still up, I can't check that link from here. He used to claim around 58% and has a decent history you can check through if you desire.

If you make a sports bet in Vegas, do you have to show ID? Never been in a sports book in my life. I would think you wouldn't, but don't they have a messenger law, about someone placing bets for you? Without an ID check, how do they know whats going on.

Quote: EvenBob

If you make a sports bet in Vegas, do you have to show ID? Never been in a sports book in my life. I would think you wouldn't, but don't they have a messenger law, about someone placing bets for you? Without an ID check, how do they know whats going on.

LOL no ID checking

Quote: JimMorrison

LOL no ID checking

So if you win $20,000 in wagers, they just hand you the cash when you win, no questions asked?

Quote: EvenBob

So if you win $20,000 in wagers, they just hand you the cash when you win, no questions asked?

Well you asked if they were going to check ID when you placed a bet and they won't. If cash enough to fill out a CTR then I would guess so. I don't bet enough sports live to know that.

For the most part sportsbettors are the most superstitious group of gamblers out there. If the word gets out anyone is running good everyone wants to follow them, even though logic would tell you someone out there has got to be running good. It's so funny the way they will pick games. I know people who will make their picks of who they think will win and then purposely pick the opposite, people who ask their girfriend or wife which mascot they like better in a game, etc. To the original poster, you were asking about vegas sportsbooks. In my experience, vegas sportsbooks offer the bad odds and you can't easily shop books. Online sportsbooks offer better odds and with accounts at different sportsbooks you can shop for the best really easily. The drawback is you're gambling online with no guarantees.

BTW after about 650 bets on multiple sports since the last NFL season I'm up about 25 bets. That's better than being 11-4-1 or some other small sample size but it definitely could still be luck.

You are absolutely right, There is no one on earth that can pick 75% of games over the long run. Most of these websites are scams, but believe it or not , they make money. If you can pick 55% to 58% consistenly, you can make a ton of money. I mean, a seriously amount of money. A lot of people are not aware of that. What a lot of these websites do, will glading pay $10.00 a day to buy someones picks and sell them on there websites and make a lot of money. And more importantly, they are interested in every sport. If you have a favorite sport, and you can pick winners, They buy yours picks quicker than you can shake a stick. That's why, if you have a sport or sports that you can pick 55% to 58%, You can sell your Picks for $1,000 to $2,000 dollars a month easy. There are websites out there that will pay that kind of money and plenty of high rollers too. Of course you will get fewer buyers at that price, but believe me , you will get enough to make huge money. There are hundreds of thousands of people around the world that are looking to buy picks. The problem is, you have to prove to them that you can really pick 55% to 58% winnners. And a lot of people don't realize, that you don't have to make a website or spent money advertising to sell you picks. And one more thing. If you can really pick winner at that percentage, you should still bet on the games yourself. You bet on the games , then give you picks to your clients.

Hi thecesspit, The truth of the matter is that people really can pick 56% to 58% which is a big profit for people that are buying picks. There are a lot of people that don't even realize that they are capable of picking such a large percentage over the long run because they don't aply themselfs to find out. There are a lot of ways to handicap sports and if you don't try hard enough, you'll never find out. Someone said betting the opposite was silly. If I handicap an average of six games a day, half of those games are usually the opposite. The most important thing to realize in sports betting is, that the vegas odds makers are the best. They do all the hard work for you. If you handicap a game and think you have a lock, your telling the vegas odds makers that they are wrong. I don't think so. If I think a team is going to win by at least 7 or 8 points and the point spread is +3 in my favor, who do you think is right, me , or the vegas odds makers. Every time someone has a lock they are telling the odds makers that they are wrong. When you handicap a game and the spread turns out the same way you handicapped, then you have real problems. There are so many ways to handicap sports, but to be successful, who have to find out who the odds makers are leaning towards. The best way to learn how to handicap sports is to design a handicapping system that allows you to see who the odds makers like. I know that odds makers make spreads to try and get even money on both sides of the bet so the books can make the juice. But how do you think they come up with that spread? Like I said, the odds makers do all the work for you, you just have to find games where you think the odds makers are wrong and you are right. Take a guess what team you should put the money on. I know where my money is going. Don't forget, you just have to win 56% to 58% to make money. Another big mistake that people make is , they bet $100.00 on one game and turn around and bet $50.00 on another. Betting like that is crazy. You can win 4 games and lose two and lose money. You should always bet the same amount on a game even if you like one game better than the other.

Quote: duckston09

Someone said betting the opposite was silly. If I handicap an average of six games a day, half of those games are usually the opposite.

If you are referring to what I said I think you misunderstood. I know people that go on tilt and pick a side they like, then bet on the opposite because they feel they're running bad.

Quote: duckston09

The most important thing to realize in sports betting is, that the vegas odds makers are the best. They do all the hard work for you. If you handicap a game and think you have a lock, your telling the vegas odds makers that they are wrong.

Isn't the most important thing about making lines getting equal money on each side? This means they make a spread that the public will be equally divided on, which is not necessarily the most accurate spread for the game. So to say you think the oddsmakers are wrong isn't as accurate as saying you think the public is wrong.

I'd like to get some sportsbettors' opinions on this: Since linesmakers want equal money on both sides of a bet and since the state of Utah doesn't gamble near as much per capita as other states, wouldn't it be prudent to always bet on a Utah team? It seems a line on a game with a Utah team would have a built in edge betting on them, because the linesmakers know that especially in college sports, much of the action comes from the home states of the participants. Maybe I'm wrong or overthinking though, what do you guys think?

Perhaps if Utah were playing UNLV or UNR it could make a slight diference. Since the majority of bettors don't need to come to Nevada to place their bets, I don't think it matters much. Of course there is the 'ole rule of thumb about the home team getting 3 points just because they are home.

On a related note, are the books allowed to take action on UNLV and UNR now? I seem to remember a time when they couldn't...or perhaps I dreamed that they couldn't. Does anyone know for sure?

I've made bets on both teams in the last three years.

The Orleans even used to take bets on the LV Wranglers hockey team who played in their stadium. They stopped as they were getting burnt too often on low volume.

Duckston : I completely agree that betters can hit 55-58%. However, a 58/100 picker will make a profit of 1 bets per 100. Or 1%. That's not bad if you can cycle the money fast enough, but it also has it's own risks (you'll need a reasonable bank roll).

Quote: duckston09

If you can pick 55% to 58% consistently, you can make a ton of money.

Why 55-58%, is that considered the ceiling for what someone can do consistently?

Hi Clarkacal,Everything you said is true. The odds makers take EVERY THING into consideration. You have to remember that there are handicappers out there that are very knowledgeabe on sports. They know every statistic from what a players three point shooting percentage is, to where they went ot high school. That's why the odds makers are so good. They need the money to go both ways. Handicappers like us need to approach games a different way. First of all you have to be able to pick 5.5 games out of ten to be successful. Logically speaking, how difficult can that be if your using the odds makers as you professor. Lets use baseball as an example. If you just play the over and unders (total score) and lets say the over and under is 9. You handicap the game and come to the conclusion that it will be a low scoring game. That's when it's time to listen to your professor. If you handicap the game and your results shows the total score will be about 9, then don't bet the game. My suggestion is, find a website that shows past performances and look at the average runs a team scores, or any way you chose to handicap, and go with the odds makers. You will see that the odds makers are right more times than they are wrong. Vegas odds makers main concerns are the brilliant sports betters. If you ask a friend to pick 10 games a day verus the spread, for one week , you will find out that the very best he can do is go 50%. So, if you played the opposite of your friend , the worst you can do , is lose 50%. You can bet your friend dinner that he can't win over 50% in one week, and I guarantee you will have a free dinner coming. People talk about people getting lucky. This can be true in some cases, but there is no such thing as luck when it comes to picking 10 games a day for seven straight days. So by understanding the odds makers, you will win at 50% of your games, then it is up to you to learn how to win the extra six percent. Someone said that you need a bank roll. That is the most important tool that you have. People don't realize that just betting $5.00 a game can bring in $100.00 a month easy. $100.00 a month doesn't seem like much, but if you enjoy handicapping, your not going to turn down a check for $100.00. The everyday joe handicapper can lose 8 or 9 games out of ten in one day. But if you educate yourself to go in the direction the odds makers are telling you, it is impossible to lose that many games out of 10 games. How many people do you know that can win 10 out of 10 in one day or 8 out of ten in one day. I've seen them lose that many times in one day.

I believe if you bet more than $10,000, they do require ID to do the CTR thingy.

There are also limits for regular season games at places that are lower than $10,000. I believe you would need to show some sort of ID to try to get those limits raised.

Quote: thecesspit

Duckston : I completely agree that betters can hit 55-58%. However, a 58/100 picker will make a profit of 1 bets per 100. Or 1%. That's not bad if you can cycle the money fast enough, but it also has it's own risks (you'll need a reasonable bank roll).

I made a mistake here by a factor of 10. Ooops A 58/100 picker will make a profit of about 10 bets per 100, or 10%.

Outlay of 1.1 Units per bet = 110 out,
58 wins, taking in 2.1 units per bet (-110 odds) 121.8 units back in.

= 11.8 Units profit = 10.7 bets.

So if you want to make $100 per month on $5 bets, you have to make 200 bets. Or 6 per day on average.

Quote: duckston09

If you ask a friend to pick 10 games a day verus the spread, for one week , you will find out that the very best he can do is go 50%. So, if you played the opposite of your friend , the worst you can do , is lose 50%. You can bet your friend dinner that he can't win over 50% in one week, and I guarantee you will have a free dinner coming. People talk about people getting lucky. This can be true in some cases, but there is no such thing as luck when it comes to picking 10 games a day for seven straight days.

Hi duckston09. I have to disagree with you on this point, and you are not the first to hold this view of casual sportsbettors. I know bookmakers who also for some reason think the average weekend bettor's default state is to pick losers. You guarantee a free dinner? Careful with that...

I made a bet against a former bookmaker with a similar point of view, and discussed it in a thread called "Should I take some money now or hold out for the 2:1?"
He layed me 2:1 that I could not make a pick on every regular season game this past NFL season and end up 50% or better. After I think it was week 14 he conceded the bet and paid the entire amount because I was so far ahead. Yeah I ran good, but it just goes to show bookmakers make their money off of vig, not the tendency for bettors to pick losers. I am by no means an expert either, it was the first year I bet NFL seriously.

And if you don't think you can lose 8 or 9 out of 10 bets in which you have an advantage you have never counted cards or played much poker.

I stand corrected. I owe you dinner