What if a craps table offered UNLIMITED odds?
1. It would obviously be a great marketing gimmick if nothing else.
2. I may be totally wrong on this, but it seems like the house edge for a combined Pass+Odds bet would be asymptotic in graph form...i.e., the higher the multiple allowed, the closer the HE gets to 0, but never actually becomes 0. So even if someone bet $10 on the Pass and took $50,000 in odds, the casino would still maintain a very slight edge...right?
3. Since, as has been discussed here before, few craps players take full odds even on a 3-4-5x table, would the money the house makes from prop and hardway bets still make up for the few crazy high rollers who would take advantage?
I'm sure ideas like this are why I'm a lowly freelancer instead of a casino manager...but I thought I'd put it out there for discussion.
For example if the table were $10 min, $1000 max bet, there would be a limit to the odds. But if the table were a $10 minimum, unlimited maximum, a casino can go belly up in one roll of the dice (or double their money).
Quote: OneAngryDwarfYes, I know it's probably never going to happen. But what if a fictional modern-day Benny Binion decided to allow it in his casino?
1. It would obviously be a great marketing gimmick if nothing else.
2. I may be totally wrong on this, but it seems like the house edge for a combined Pass+Odds bet would be asymptotic in graph form...i.e., the higher the multiple allowed, the closer the HE gets to 0, but never actually becomes 0. So even if someone bet $10 on the Pass and took $50,000 in odds, the casino would still maintain a very slight edge...right?
3. Since, as has been discussed here before, few craps players take full odds even on a 3-4-5x table, would the money the house makes from prop and hardway bets still make up for the few crazy high rollers who would take advantage?
I'm sure ideas like this are why I'm a lowly freelancer instead of a casino manager...but I thought I'd put it out there for discussion.
Simply look at how the 100xs odds do. In that case the $1.41 HA on your $100 bet turns into a little over a penny. Casinos still offer it. My guess is unlimited odds would be fine for a promotion, but how many people would care I do not know. People who can put $50K on odds are not going to spend hours on dice influence practice. And I think people with the roll for that would get bored playing pass-line only.
Would it untimately drive business? I don't think so. Craps doesn't seem to drive business. More people care about a slots jackpot these days.
The variance increases based on the size of the odds taken.
I know that's not what you're asking, though, and I think the real answer is no if you mean truly unlimited odds. Say you had $10 million to gamble with, and your only bet was $10 pass line with the entire rest of your bankroll on odds, aiways putting winnings back onto the odds after a win. Five straight point winners has about a 1% chance of happening but would bankrupt the casino. (Adjust the numbers accordingly if you don't think this would drive Stan Ho or Steve Wynn out of business, but it's the same ballpark.) I wouldn't take that chance if I'm the house.
Quote: 7outlineaway
I know that's not what you're asking, though, and I think the real answer is no if you mean truly unlimited odds.
Well, I guess there still would have to be a traditional table max on the game, for all the reasons you mentioned. I was thinking more in terms of the ratio between the Pass Line bet and odds. Basically take the Colorado rule you mentioned, but apply it to a place with high max bets like Caesars Palace (which I believe has a $25,000 max bet on their craps tables).
Quote: OneAngryDwarf2. I may be totally wrong on this, but it seems like the house edge for a combined Pass+Odds bet would be asymptotic in graph form...i.e., the higher the multiple allowed, the closer the HE gets to 0, but never actually becomes 0. So even if someone bet $10 on the Pass and took $50,000 in odds, the casino would still maintain a very slight edge...right?
The casino would maintain the exact same edge that it always had on the $10 Pass Line bet--the odds bet is immaterial. The house could look at the unlimited odds bet as a way to make 14 cents, since the player has to make that $10 Pass Line bet first. And if the house gets more Pass Line bets as a result--well, then, it really shouldn't give a poop about the odds.
Even if the edge doesn't change, a large enough bet could break the casino. Let's say one person owns the casino. He sets a limit of his net worth for an odds bet. If he loses a bet that big, he owes the player everything he owns, including the casino.
All this reminds me a bit on Futurama in the ep where time keeps skipping ahead. At one point the crew gets handed a check for "all the money on Earth." :)
Quote: mkl654321The casino would maintain the exact same edge that it always had on the $10 Pass Line bet--the odds bet is immaterial. The house could look at the unlimited odds bet as a way to make 14 cents, since the player has to make that $10 Pass Line bet first. And if the house gets more Pass Line bets as a result--well, then, it really shouldn't give a poop about the odds.
The house cares about variance as well as EV and will not give up variance without some gain in EV (actual rather than %age points). If they think it would be by increasing the total dollar value bet, then they might give more odds.
Quote: thecesspitThe house cares about variance as well as EV and will not give up variance without some gain in EV (actual rather than %age points). If they think it would be by increasing the total dollar value bet, then they might give more odds.
Percentage points ARE "actual" gains. And that was my point--that by offering unlimited odds bets (which cost them nothing), they might attract more Pass Line bets. They don't care about the total dollar value bet--they care about total expected value. If you think about it, offering huge Pass Line odds bets is like a very compelling promotion that doesn't cost the casino a single dime. Of course, they take on additional variance, but that isn't all that big a deal since no odds bet pays better than 2-1, and the casinos have more than adequate cash reserves. It's unlikely that they would be in any danger.
Ted Binnion takes your wager.
Steve Wynn does not.
Quote: mkl654321... they might attract more Pass Line bets. They don't care about the total dollar value bet--they care about total expected value.
Correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm not an expert player, but I'd make the argument that it would decrease the amount of dollars bet on the pass line. Wouldn't a normally green or black chip player on the pass line, who takes full odds normally, drop their pass line bet to the table minimum and just take as many odds as they see fit? In those cases wouldn't the expected value to the house of the pass line drop 10x in the example of a black chip player only playing $10 on the pass line while keeping or increasing their variance?
Quote: cellardoorWouldn't a normally green or black chip player on the pass line, who takes full odds normally, drop their pass line bet to the table minimum and just take as many odds as they see fit?
If it was that important to them, why wouldn't they be playing the lower minimums, say, right now?
Quote: SanchoPanzaIf it was that important to them, why wouldn't they be playing the lower minimums, say, right now?
The is the way the logic works in my head, correct me if I'm wrong:
If the black chip player puts $100 on pass line and then max odds of a 3-4-5x table he is comfortable putting between $400-$600 on the point. With unlimited odds wouldn't it make more financial sense to the player to just put $10 on the pass line and then put down as many chips (let's say $390-590 for comparisons sake) and he/she feels comfortable with knowing the odds is a no HA bet. With that play aren't you avoiding the risk of the HA on $90 for the pass line while still seeing the reward if it hits by transferring it to the odds bet?
"In our No House Edge version of the game, the maximum size of any Odds bets has no relation to the size of primary bets (bets on the Pass Line, Don’t Pass, Come or Don’t Come). The maximum Odds bet is €200. If a primary bet is €10 and Odds bet is €200, then the house edge will be about 0.1%. If a primary bet falls to €1, the house edge will be reduced to 0.01%.
Furthermore, the casino doesn’t take the standard 4% from the player’s win in payouts for the Buy bet and Lay bet, eliminating the house edge on these bets, as well.
Please note that the casino retains its advantage for all other bets in Craps."
A casino manager should think of how the advertising of it would help his bottom line but I fear the first thought would be "what if a guy hit us really big time ... and then walked away". Ten thousand odds would be great publicity but only if the guy is likely to come back on his next gambling trip and bring his winnings with him.Quote: OneAngryDwarfIt would obviously be a great marketing gimmick if nothing else.
The ENTIRE Vegas strip makes an average of $669K per day on craps, out of a total of $15.830 million per day for all games, poker and slots. Imagine how risky it would be to let someone play $100K per roll on craps even with the house edge. There would be very little incentive to let someone play without any house edge.
Casinos are not in the business of gambling their own money.
Tom Breitling tells a story about after they sold the Golden Nugget downtown to Landry's Restaurant for over $300 million. He was still managing the casino for the 7 months that it took for the new owners to get a license. He let a friend play craps with high limits (6X-8X-10X odds) and the friend won a million dollars. The executives at Landry's were so furious that they almost quashed the entire deal worth over $300 million. The argument that they could have just as easily won a million dollars did not dissuade them.
Quote: pacomartinThe ENTIRE Vegas strip makes an average of $669K per day on craps, out of a total of $15.830 million per day for all games, poker and slots.
With those numbers, the large space required by a craps table, and given how many people it takes to deal craps, I wonder they keep the game at all.
Quote: cellardoorCorrect me if I'm wrong, as I'm not an expert player, but I'd make the argument that it would decrease the amount of dollars bet on the pass line. Wouldn't a normally green or black chip player on the pass line, who takes full odds normally, drop their pass line bet to the table minimum and just take as many odds as they see fit? In those cases wouldn't the expected value to the house of the pass line drop 10x in the example of a black chip player only playing $10 on the pass line while keeping or increasing their variance?
Yes, that would be logical behavior. And that logical behavior would last right up until the moment when there were three or four 7s and/or 11s on the comeout, and the logical bettor only won the table minimum each time. Isn't that part of the attraction of craps--that the comeout roll favors the Pass Line bettor? You can have a whole string of winners in a very short time.
Certainly, the house would be harmed by a player moving his action from the Pass Line to the odds bet, but very few players maximize their odds and minimize their line bets. Also, if the casino attracts a player who bets on the Pass Line at all--even with 100X odds--that wouldn't have otherwise set foot in that casino, then they've made money.
The 130 craps tables in Clark County outside of the Strip average $1,747 per day on a drop of $12,363 per day per table. So clearly the table drop is not so huge that it threatens the quarterly return of these casinos. The amount is tolerable, but the odds are a draw to come out off the strip.
Rampart is the only casino with a four diamond hotel.
| Casino Royale ($5 minimum) | 100x |
|---|---|
| Rampart | 100x |
| Main Street Station | 20x |
| Eastside Cannery | 20x |
| Sam's Town | 20x |
| Stratosphere | 10x |
| El Cortez | 10x |
| Golden Gate | 10x |
| Las Vegas Club | 10x |
| Aliante Station | 10x |
| Arizona Charlie's Boulder | 10x |
| Boulder Station | 10x |
| Cannery | 10x |
| Fiesta Rancho | 10x |
| Joker Wild | 10x |
| Palace Station | 10x |
| Santa Fe Station | 10x |
| Silverton | 10x |
| Sunset Station | 10x |
| Texas Station | 10x |
| Fiesta Henderson | 10x |
| Joker Wild | 10x |
| Sahara | 5x |
| Binion's | 5x |
| Four Queens | 5x |
| Arizona Charlie's Decatur | 5x |
| Lucky's | 5x |
| Speedway | 5x |
| Suncoast | 5x |
Quote: mkl654321Yes, that would be logical behavior. And that logical behavior would last right up until the moment when there were three or four 7s and/or 11s on the comeout, and the logical bettor only won the table minimum each time. Isn't that part of the attraction of craps--that the comeout roll favors the Pass Line bettor? You can have a whole string of winners in a very short time.
I don't know about you, but I don't play the pass line specifically to profit from the comeout roll, it's just a nice bonus when a 7 or 11 hits. Wouldn't it be in the bettors favor, in the unlimited odds scenario, to keep the minimum on the pass line and just throw some money on a 'any 7' or '11' to make up for the missed opportunity?
Quote: mkl654321Percentage points ARE "actual" gains. And that was my point--that by offering unlimited odds bets (which cost them nothing), they might attract more Pass Line bets. They don't care about the total dollar value bet--they care about total expected value. If you think about it, offering huge Pass Line odds bets is like a very compelling promotion that doesn't cost the casino a single dime. Of course, they take on additional variance, but that isn't all that big a deal since no odds bet pays better than 2-1, and the casinos have more than adequate cash reserves. It's unlikely that they would be in any danger.
My point is 1.41% EV BY itself does not tell you the profit of a table. They care about the total expected value IN dollars.
The variance of the pass line bet is ~1.
The variance of the odds bet is 1.55
A x5 odds bet there has a variance of 7 times the variance of a pass line bet, and x100... 150 time the pass line bet.
The variance on the odds starts to swamp that of the pass line bet... meaning that while the casino has adequate cash reserves it could take much much longer for it to settle towards the long term value (of $0).
Say 30 passes per hour, 24 hours per day = 720 decisions on the pass line bet (I'm approximating away a whole set of things here like the fact the pass line resolves more often than the odds bet)
$1 on the line, $5 on the odds (x5 odds)
EV on pass line = 720 * 1.41% = $10.52
Standard Deviation = sqrt(720) * 1 = $26.83
EV on the odds = 720 * 0 = $0.0
Standard Deviation = sqrt(720) * sqrt(1.55) * 5 = $167.
As these are closely related the casino will made $10.52 +/- $387.66 (covering 2 standard deviations).
Over 365 days :
EV on pass line = 262,800 * 1.41% = $3705.48
Standard deviation = sqrt(262,800) * 1 = $512
EV on the odds = $0
Standard deviation = sqrt(262,800) * sqrt(1.55) * 5 = $3191
=> casino makes $3705 +/- $3703
=> There a chance (small though it is) with 5 times odds that the table would not post a profit from play with 5 times odds over the year.
As the odds goes up, there's more of a chance over the years play that the table is not profitable. I'm sure the minimum threshold for a table is more than "doesn't make loss" but is $x per day, then you can see that the casino will be risking that the variance will hurt it's bottom line, even in a game it has the edge in.
(I've approximated a lot here, and may have made some glaring error).
Variance is what CAN make some punters winners over a period of time. The same variance can mean a casino loses over a period time, despite having the cocked dice. They tend to trade of variance for EV... if you want more variance, you pay more of a cost.
Quote: thecesspitMy point is 1.41% EV BY itself does not tell you the profit of a table. They care about the total expected value IN dollars.
The variance of the pass line bet is ~1.
The variance of the odds bet is 1.55
A x5 odds bet there has a variance of 7 times the variance of a pass line bet, and x100... 150 time the pass line bet.
The variance on the odds starts to swamp that of the pass line bet... meaning that while the casino has adequate cash reserves it could take much much longer for it to settle towards the long term value (of $0).
Say 30 passes per hour, 24 hours per day = 720 decisions on the pass line bet (I'm approximating away a whole set of things here like the fact the pass line resolves more often than the odds bet)
$1 on the line, $5 on the odds (x5 odds)
EV on pass line = 720 * 1.41% = $10.52
Standard Deviation = sqrt(720) * 1 = $26.83
EV on the odds = 720 * 0 = $0.0
Standard Deviation = sqrt(720) * sqrt(1.55) * 5 = $167.
As these are closely related the casino will made $10.52 +/- $387.66 (covering 2 standard deviations).
Over 365 days :
EV on pass line = 262,800 * 1.41% = $3705.48
Standard deviation = sqrt(262,800) * 1 = $512
EV on the odds = $0
Standard deviation = sqrt(262,800) * sqrt(1.55) * 5 = $3191
=> casino makes $3705 +/- $3703
=> There a chance (small though it is) with 5 times odds that the table would not post a profit from play with 5 times odds over the year.
As the odds goes up, there's more of a chance over the years play that the table is not profitable. I'm sure the minimum threshold for a table is more than "doesn't make loss" but is $x per day, then you can see that the casino will be risking that the variance will hurt it's bottom line, even in a game it has the edge in.
(I've approximated a lot here, and may have made some glaring error)
Not bad. For $1 pass, 5X odds, the ev is -$.01414, the SD $5.891, so for 262,800, ev is -$3716, SD $3020. The aggregate players need to be lucky only to the extent of 1.23 SD to break even with the casino. That's a probability of just about .11. If the odds multiple were 100X, SD would be $51,670 for 262,800 bets, same ev. That's about a .47 probability that the variance on the odds would wipe out the passline ev, but just for those players that bet the minimum and took 100X odds.
Quote: thecesspitVariance is what CAN make some punters winners over a period of time. The same variance can mean a casino loses over a period time, despite having the cocked dice. They tend to trade of variance for EV... if you want more variance, you pay more of a cost.
That's what's so special about the odds bets -- the variance is free if you're willing to risk a lot of money.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, Ca
Quote: goatcabinThat's what's so special about the odds bets -- the variance is free if you're willing to risk a lot of money.
I saw some of your workings when looking to do this (elsewhere), but went back to rough first principals. Thanks, glad it was in the ball park.
I get that it's potentially good for a punter putting up a fair amount... which is rather my point... if it's good for the punter, it may not be as good for the casino who sees each and every table as profit centre and wants a nice stable income stream, not something that varies wildly... hence they may want to keep the odds down, despite it being "free".
As ever, EV is not the whole story, as much as people may want to propose that it is all there is to care about. Not only "what do I expect to have in my wallet" but also "how close am I likely to be to that expectation".
Quote: NareedWith those numbers, the large space required by a craps table, and given how many people it takes to deal craps, I wonder they keep the game at all.
It's not the most profitable game in the casino, but a craps table usually brings in 3 to 4 times as much as a blackjack table. The problem is if you go through the casino and eliminate the less profitable games, you tend to destroy the atmosphere of the place. In the outlying areas, sometimes they us "tubs" for craps tables. The game is much slower, but a single person can run the game.
They hardly seem worth it in Mesquite, but it is part of the atmosphere.
| AREA | $K /day/table | Craps tables | $K per day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Strip | $3.33 | 201 | $669.1 |
| Total Non Strip | $1.75 | 130 | $227.2 |
| Downtown | $2.09 | 37 | $77.3 |
| Boulder | $1.89 | 26 | $49.1 |
| Balance of C. County | $1.76 | 36 | $63.2 |
| Laughlin | $1.31 | 16 | $21.0 |
| Mesquite | $1.15 | 4 | $4.6 |
| North Las Vegas | $1.09 | 11 | $12.0 |
Quote: pacomartinIt's not the most profitable game in the casino, but a craps table usually brings in 3 to 4 times as much as a blackjack table. The problem is if you go through the casino and eliminate the less profitable games, you tend to destroy the atmosphere of the place. In the outlying areas, sometimes they us "tubs" for craps tables. The game is much slower, but a single person can run the game.
They hardly seem worth it in Mesquite, but it is part of the atmosphere.
AREA $K /day/table Craps tables $K per day Total Strip $3.33 201 $669.1 Total Non Strip $1.75 130 $227.2 Downtown $2.09 37 $77.3 Boulder $1.89 26 $49.1 Balance of C. County $1.76 36 $63.2 Laughlin $1.31 16 $21.0 Mesquite $1.15 4 $4.6 North Las Vegas $1.09 11 $12.0
Where do you get all that information?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabin[Where do you get all that information?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Pretty detailed information on Gaming Commission Website. They give sums for the last month, the last quarter, and the last year. I divide by 365 to get current up to date per day and per table informaion.
Data can be sketchy in places. Number of tables does not distinguish between tubs and full size craps tables (I don't think). HOWEVER, THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY TUBS.
Since the recession table games have outearned slots on the strip. That may be related to more competition rather than the recession , per se.
Table games in PA make an average of $2K per day and up to $2.6K per day in ones near NJ border. No distinction between craps and BJ tables. Of course there RE 5,527 TABLES IN NV andonly 609 in PA.
