Prediction Markets - a new kind of gambling that isn't called gambling
it's becoming huge
from the article:
"Ask Logan Sudeith how many bets he places in a week and he'll laugh. It's a comical line of questioning for the 25-year-old former financial risk analyst, who estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. After a while, understandably, some of the bets blur together. What are his net profits, though? That's a number he's got at the ready.
"Last month, I made $100,000," said Sudeith, who does most of his trading from his laptop while bed-lounging in his Atlanta apartment. He's executing so many orders on the sites, he says, that he has no time to cook. So he DoorDashes every meal.
My last salary was $75,000 a year, so I left my job to trade full time," he said
Some of his biggest hauls in recent months include lucrative stakes on Time Magazine's person of the year ($40,236), the most-searched person on Google last year ($11,083) and a wager on the New York City mayoral race ($7,448). And of course, a couple thousand here, a couple thousand there on questions like, how many times will a sports announcer say "air ball"? And will President Trump use the phrase "drill baby drill" at an upcoming press conference? (Traders had $500,000 on the line on this market.)"
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/17/nx-s1...slang-glossary
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Quote: lilredrooster.
Some of his biggest hauls in recent months include lucrative stakes on Time Magazine's person of the year ($40,236)
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Good thing I didn't know about this - I would have bet-er, "invested" heavily on Pope Leo XIV, and probably doubled down on Ohtani (my "B choice," had Toronto won the World Series, was A'ja Wilson) being SI's Sportsperson of the Year.
Also, the President of the NCAA is requesting that these companies stop taking money on predicting the equivalent of "prop bets".
I wanted in this post to compare the vig of sportsbooks to the vig of Prediction Markets
but the structure of fees in prediction markets is too complicated - I could not really follow the explanations I got
so, I deleted my op
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Quote: gordonm888I understand that the NCAA has just made a request to some of the prediction marketplace operators that college sports be removed from their systems. This is in the wake of a game fixing scandal in college basketball that involves indictments of at least a dozen people including multiple college players at multiple schools.
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I ‘think’ that these scandals involved ‘regular’ sportsbooks and not ‘prediction markets’. Two of the criminals played for UB. (Buffalo). In NY, you cannot place a bet on a college athlete’s points, rebounds, etc…. These brilliant lawmakers must have been unaware that there are devices that allowed these criminals to somehow communicate with cohorts in other states! Who could have foreseen that?
I think that prohibition is frankly stupid. These athletes are now for all intents and purposes professional. Making money through NIL deals instead of a salary. Enforce the laws when someone is caught fixing a game for illegal profit. But end the sham that implies these college athletes are different from the pros.
Here's a direct quote from the NCAA president, from the link I posted above:Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888I understand that the NCAA has just made a request to some of the prediction marketplace operators that college sports be removed from their systems. This is in the wake of a game fixing scandal in college basketball that involves indictments of at least a dozen people including multiple college players at multiple schools.
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I ‘think’ that these scandals involved ‘regular’ sportsbooks and not ‘prediction markets’. Two of the criminals played for UB. (Buffalo). In NY, you cannot place a bet on a college athlete’s points, rebounds, etc…. These brilliant lawmakers must have been unaware that there are devices that allowed these criminals to somehow communicate with cohorts in other states! Who could have foreseen that?
I think that prohibition is frankly stupid. These athletes are now for all intents and purposes professional. Making money through NIL deals instead of a salary. Enforce the laws when someone is caught fixing a game for illegal profit. But end the sham that implies these college athletes are different from the pros.
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While he is probably including direct prop bets with sports books in the statement, he is clearly (also) referring to prop bet markets, which are legal in some, if not all, states that do not have sportsbooks (e.g. California).Quote:Prop market restrictions — I’ve advocated for the elimination of college sport prop betting markets due to the negative impact they have on student-athletes and the integrity of competition. At my urging, the majority of states now have restrictions on these markets for college contests. While it’s unclear if there are any college prop prediction markets, these offerings already exist for professional sports, and it’s only a matter of time before operators seek to offer them on college sports.
type, etc..) is just fooling yourself into thinking you have ‘protected’ the game.
Quote: lilredroosterI wanted in this post to compare the vig of sportsbooks to the vig of Prediction Markets
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So just looking at a singular example (since I was looking at it anyways...):
Polymarket: 100$ on the Rams right now stands to pay 238.10$, and on the Seahawks, 170.07$.
Best payouts, according to VegasInsider: 100$ on the Rams right now stands to pay 235.00$, and on the Seahawks, 167.57$.
Quote: SOOPOOThanks, TDG. But my point is that preventing ME from betting on my Alma Mater, Columbia, because I live in NY State is just stupid. A regular Joe like me just won’t put in the effort to get an account in another state, while anyone with nefarious motives will do so EASILY. And the ban on specific prop type bets (player name) while allowing all the other bets (over/under, first half pointspread, first basket type, etc..) is just fooling yourself into thinking you have ‘protected’ the game.
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In a separate letter to state gaming commissions, the NCAA President also singled out "first half unders." I am surprised he didn't go after point spreads, as that was what led to the Arizona State scandal.
The schools still want "some" protection; this is why 2/3 of the Division I schools voted to stop an NCAA plan to get rid of the ban on college athletes betting on most pro sports or even being in fantasy sports leagues.
I remember when the "nobody can bet on college sports where a team from this state is involved" law applied in Nevada, and this extended to, "Nobody can make a futures bet on who will win the NCAA men's basketball championship before the bracket is announced," although they got around this by allowing bets on "which non-Nevada team would advance the farthest." You can imagine the problems when UNLV made it as far as the championship game.
Quote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
Quote: rxwineQuote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
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Interesting. That means there were fools risking millions that there wouldn’t be an attack. Since there can not be a bet if there is not a person willing to bet the other side, and that bet is fraught with the possibility of thousands having that information, how could you be dumb enough to make that bet with real money. Those fools might have also bet on Wrestlemania outcomes as well!
I guess you need to know if those profiting are breaking any law? And I’m sure it’s a coincidence that the big winning bettor was Tonald J. Drump.
I’ll give a less nefarious scenario. I am at the hospital with a loved one. And I see them rushing Celebrity X to the OR with an arrow in his head. Too soon for it to be reported in the news. Can I make a bet on him not making it to next December?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: rxwineQuote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
link to original post
Interesting. That means there were fools risking millions that there wouldn’t be an attack. Since there can not be a bet if there is not a person willing to bet the other side, and that bet is fraught with the possibility of thousands having that information, how could you be dumb enough to make that bet with real money. Those fools might have also bet on Wrestlemania outcomes as well!
I guess you need to know if those profiting are breaking any law? And I’m sure it’s a coincidence that the big winning bettor was Tonald J. Drump.
I’ll give a less nefarious scenario. I am at the hospital with a loved one. And I see them rushing Celebrity X to the OR with an arrow in his head. Too soon for it to be reported in the news. Can I make a bet on him not making it to next December?
link to original post
Breaking whose law? There were a lot of Americans who knew what was going to happen, and there were a lot of Israelis who knew. There were people in Kuwait, UAE, etc. who could see what was going on too. It could even be Iranians who knew how stupid their leader was and bet against him. Being it is a global platform you may be betting against people for whom it is perfectly legal to have and use the inside information. This is why I stay away from all that.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: rxwineQuote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
link to original post
Interesting. That means there were fools risking millions that there wouldn’t be an attack. Since there can not be a bet if there is not a person willing to bet the other side, and that bet is fraught with the possibility of thousands having that information, how could you be dumb enough to make that bet with real money. Those fools might have also bet on Wrestlemania outcomes as well!
I guess you need to know if those profiting are breaking any law? And I’m sure it’s a coincidence that the big winning bettor was Tonald J. Drump.
I’ll give a less nefarious scenario. I am at the hospital with a loved one. And I see them rushing Celebrity X to the OR with an arrow in his head. Too soon for it to be reported in the news. Can I make a bet on him not making it to next December?
link to original post
Breaking whose law? There were a lot of Americans who knew what was going to happen, and there were a lot of Israelis who knew. There were people in Kuwait, UAE, etc. who could see what was going on too. It could even be Iranians who knew how stupid their leader was and bet against him. Being it is a global platform you may be betting against people for whom it is perfectly legal to have and use the inside information. This is why I stay away from all that.
link to original post
I’ll make it simpler. The General whose order says ‘take out Iran’s leaders’ has his wife make a $1 million bet on the top leader kicking the bucket moments after the order is given. Has that General committed a crime? I’d hope it is considered a crime!
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: rxwineQuote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
link to original post
Interesting. That means there were fools risking millions that there wouldn’t be an attack. Since there can not be a bet if there is not a person willing to bet the other side, and that bet is fraught with the possibility of thousands having that information, how could you be dumb enough to make that bet with real money. Those fools might have also bet on Wrestlemania outcomes as well!
I guess you need to know if those profiting are breaking any law? And I’m sure it’s a coincidence that the big winning bettor was Tonald J. Drump.
I’ll give a less nefarious scenario. I am at the hospital with a loved one. And I see them rushing Celebrity X to the OR with an arrow in his head. Too soon for it to be reported in the news. Can I make a bet on him not making it to next December?
link to original post
Breaking whose law? There were a lot of Americans who knew what was going to happen, and there were a lot of Israelis who knew. There were people in Kuwait, UAE, etc. who could see what was going on too. It could even be Iranians who knew how stupid their leader was and bet against him. Being it is a global platform you may be betting against people for whom it is perfectly legal to have and use the inside information. This is why I stay away from all that.
link to original post
I’ll make it simpler. The General whose order says ‘take out Iran’s leaders’ has his wife make a $1 million bet on the top leader kicking the bucket moments after the order is given. Has that General committed a crime? I’d hope it is considered a crime!
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You've identified a weakness in the prediction marketplace but exploiting a weakness is not a crime. Using knowledge to perceive that the odds are different than normal is no more illegal than card counting at a Blackjack table.
No action is illegal and a crime until a legislature has passed a law that forbids it. The difficulty in making use of insider information illegal is defining who is an insider in words that are clear and comprehensive enough to be enforceable by a court.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: rxwineQuote:Bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket made a killing with suspiciously timed wagers that the United States would attack Iran by February 28, the day President Donald Trump announced a bombing campaign against the Middle East nation.
Bloomberg reported that six accounts on Polymarket, all newly created this month, “made around $1 million in profit” by betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran. The accounts, according to Bloomberg, “had only ever placed bets on when US strikes might occur,” and “some of their shares were purchased, in some cases at roughly a dime apiece, hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bettors-make-huge-profits-from-suspiciously-timed-wagers-on-iran-war/ar-AA1XmLFy?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=69a5a4524f824b8680fa6f252451cdc1&ei=16
link to original post
Interesting. That means there were fools risking millions that there wouldn’t be an attack. Since there can not be a bet if there is not a person willing to bet the other side, and that bet is fraught with the possibility of thousands having that information, how could you be dumb enough to make that bet with real money. Those fools might have also bet on Wrestlemania outcomes as well!
I guess you need to know if those profiting are breaking any law? And I’m sure it’s a coincidence that the big winning bettor was Tonald J. Drump.
I’ll give a less nefarious scenario. I am at the hospital with a loved one. And I see them rushing Celebrity X to the OR with an arrow in his head. Too soon for it to be reported in the news. Can I make a bet on him not making it to next December?
link to original post
Breaking whose law? There were a lot of Americans who knew what was going to happen, and there were a lot of Israelis who knew. There were people in Kuwait, UAE, etc. who could see what was going on too. It could even be Iranians who knew how stupid their leader was and bet against him. Being it is a global platform you may be betting against people for whom it is perfectly legal to have and use the inside information. This is why I stay away from all that.
link to original post
I’ll make it simpler. The General whose order says ‘take out Iran’s leaders’ has his wife make a $1 million bet on the top leader kicking the bucket moments after the order is given. Has that General committed a crime? I’d hope it is considered a crime!
link to original post
There is a section of the UCMJ that addresses the use of government resources for self-enrichment. I'd think that would fall under that, but there may be better rules against it. The code I'm thinking of is to prevent a Major from ordering his men to buy Avon from his niece, but any corruption or even appearance of it is against the Code.
