lilredrooster
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August 4th, 2024 at 5:14:35 AM permalink
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I've been a buy and hold investor in index funds - the S&P and one tech index fund - for a very , very long time
it's not a sexy strategy, too boring for many - but fine for me
I'm now living off of savings and investments
I pay no or almost no capital gains taxes unless I sell which I almost never do
there's no buy anymore in my buy and hold strategy - it's all hold

the long term return is estimated at 10% per year - somewhat higher for the tech index fund - that won't impress anyone but -

I've bought and held these positions for decades - the heights to which they have soared is astonishing to me when I consider how comparatively little I have bought into them

the market has been going down now for a week or so

I could care less - I've been thru this dozens of times - there are no guarantees but so far it always comes back - the only thing that differs from drop to the next is how long it will take to recover

that's my story and I'm sticking to it

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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August 4th, 2024 at 5:32:28 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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I've been a buy and hold investor in index funds - the S&P and one tech index fund - for a very , very long time
it's not a sexy strategy, too boring for many - but fine for me
I'm now living off of savings and investments
I pay no or almost no capital gains taxes unless I sell which I almost never do
there's no buy anymore in my buy and hold strategy - it's all hold

the long term return is estimated at 10% per year - somewhat higher for the tech index fund - that won't impress anyone but -

I've bought and held these positions for decades - the heights to which they have soared is astonishing to me when I consider how comparatively little I have bought into them

the market has been going down now for a week or so

I could care less - I've been thru this dozens of times - there are no guarantees but so far it always comes back - the only thing that differs from drop to the next is how long it will take to recover

that's my story and I'm sticking to it

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link to original post



Just curious, I am starting to plan my retirement and wondering where your income comes from if you are not selling anything? Dividends?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
lilredrooster
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August 4th, 2024 at 5:45:35 AM permalink
Quote: DRich


Just curious, I am starting to plan my retirement and wondering where your income comes from if you are not selling anything? Dividends?
link to original post


I forgot to mention s.s.
and years ago after the market had a very big year I made a large drawdown and was able to get comparatively high interest on a common bank account - that is what I live off of that my s.s. does not cover
so, I guess it's not 100% accurate to say it's been only buy and hold - I did make one large sale after retiring -
but the amount of that sale was made in the very next year - it only took one year to get back to where I was before the sale
as for dividends, I do have a small % in bond funds - for safety in case of a very large market drop - but I reinvest the dividends - they are not paid out to me directly
dividends from the stock funds are smallish - they are also reinvested

good luck with your retirement planning

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
odiousgambit
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August 5th, 2024 at 2:21:41 AM permalink
you should be getting about 2% per year from your stocks from dividends. I see you have them re-invested

somebody said there really is a golden goose: quarterly dividends

this is true in more than one way, the dividends are just as sweet as having something lay golden eggs. And it is so easy to kill that golden goose by selling off those stocks ... yet most retirees really can't live off the dividends, so we find ourselves in fact at least slowly killing off our magic egg layer

sounds like you aren't one of those, Rooster, good for you. You might check into getting those dividends in cash if you're retired, though. Mighty sweet
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MDawg
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August 5th, 2024 at 4:10:36 AM permalink
A buy and hold in something like AAPL, which I have held continuously for pushing twenty years now, blows away something like this. It didn't take any kind of genius to buy and hold stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, CMG, TSLA, and others, but to not take advantage of those and instead plow it into the S&P 500 would take something other than genius.

What "they" want you to think is that buying a fund is better than buying individual stocks, but that's not true at all. You may create your own blend.

However, at least he did hold. Many bot into the sexy stocks and sold before the real miracles happened, or even lost money dumping in 2008.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
lilredrooster
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August 5th, 2024 at 4:26:18 AM permalink
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89% of fund managers fail to beat the market meaning the S&P 500 - see link

these are professional money managers who failed - they "created their own blend"

from the link - "78-97% of actively managed stock funds failed to beat the indexes they were benchmarked against over ten years"

so my investment in the S&P 500 beat 89% of professional money managers

not trying to say it's anything approaching genius but this was my logic

surely there are some few who beat the s&p by a large margin

I didn't want to spend the time and effort to do that and didn't have the confidence that I could do that

and so very many who tried that did not succeed

maybe I could have done it if I had been less risk averse

but I really don't care - I have way, way more than enough due to my decades long strategy - and I don't have an appetite for luxury items


https://stockanalysis.com/article/can-you-beat-the-market/

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
MDawg
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August 5th, 2024 at 4:45:56 AM permalink
When you have BILLIONS of dollars to put somewhere, therein lies the problem - you can't just maneuver in and out on a whim. Plus these stock brokers have an incentive to churn commissions.

An individual investor who didn't take advantage of the great runup in the individual stocks I mentioned, is not someone who should be lauded in any way. If your advice is that someone 20 years old should put all his money into what you did, I would say that is faulty advice, and in any case, this youngest generation is going to laugh at anyone who suggests that they do that, whether it is good advice or not!

On the other hand, buy and hold in general, is solid advice for most, because most traders lose money, especially day traders. The way I do it is to buy and hold and trade additional shares of the same. Best of both.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
lilredrooster
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August 5th, 2024 at 5:05:21 AM permalink
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your strategy assumes that investors will always be able to identify stocks that are so great they will never tumble to almost nothing

maybe you can, I'm not going to question it, but I believe many will fail trying

and one of the stocks you mentioned - CMG - do you really believe it is impossible for that stock to fall to nothing________?_________that people won't get tired of that food_______?

I used to eat it fairly often - not anymore - I got tired of it

or maybe you will be prescient enough to see the big drops before they happen and get out - IDK

in any case, I don't doubt that you are much more profitable as an investor than I am - but I doubt many others can match you

per the link more than 115 million in the U.S. owned mutual funds in 2023 -


https://www.ici.org/news-release/23-news-mutual-funds#:~:text=The%20survey%20also%20found%20that,owned%20mutual%20funds%20in%202023.

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Aug 5, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
MDawg
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August 5th, 2024 at 5:27:36 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

When you have BILLIONS of dollars to put somewhere, therein lies the problem - you can't just maneuver in and out on a whim. Plus these stock brokers have an incentive to churn commissions.
link to original post


Just as an example I know a guy who owns a hedge fund that he started initially as a means just to invest his own money after he sold a start up. His biggest investment for the fund was BABA, and towards the end of 2021, he was lamenting to me about how it was down to the 160s or so, and that he was losing a lot of money for himself and his clients. I advised him to just dump and put it all into AMZN, which would have gone down a lot too, but by now would be back up. Well now that BABA stock is and has been stuck in the 70s, probably all his clients are crying and up in arms, but he still has his oceanfront home in FL and fleet of Ferraris.

BABA is not a stock I ever owned a single share of, I never believed in it, always preferred AMZN.

But this guy not only believed in it but rode it all the way down, mostly because he was stuck and didn't know where to put all the money if he did pull out. If you imagine me, as a Mack truck buying a couple million dollars of a stock in a single trade, and needing to pull in and out of a lane, imagine billions of dollars and how hard it is to maneuver. That inability to maneuver easily is part of why fund managers cannot beat the S&P, not just because they are incompetent. Comparing one fund index in a vacuum to another doesn't necessarily present the entire picture as to why one outperforms the other.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
billryan
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September 19th, 2024 at 8:50:49 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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your strategy assumes that investors will always be able to identify stocks that are so great they will never tumble to almost nothing

maybe you can, I'm not going to question it, but I believe many will fail trying

and one of the stocks you mentioned - CMG - do you really believe it is impossible for that stock to fall to nothing________?_________that people won't get tired of that food_______?

I used to eat it fairly often - not anymore - I got tired of it

or maybe you will be prescient enough to see the big drops before they happen and get out - IDK

in any case, I don't doubt that you are much more profitable as an investor than I am - but I doubt many others can match you

per the link more than 115 million in the U.S. owned mutual funds in 2023 -


https://www.ici.org/news-release/23-news-mutual-funds#:~:text=The%20survey%20also%20found%20that,owned%20mutual%20funds%20in%202023.

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link to original post




I don't understand this thinking at all. Any stock can go broke- look at the retail giants from the 1960s- JC Penny, Sears, Woolworths, etc, but they don't instantly implode and you have a giant parachute that lets you escape anytime you want. You aren't marrying the stock, you are taking it for a ride and can bail as soon as it gets ugly.
You can put in stop losses so if the stock loses X% of its value, it gets sold.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2024 at 9:13:21 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I don't understand this thinking at all.


I really could care less what you don't understand re my ideas and my strategy
we've already been over this ad nauseam in your thread entitled "I Love Dividend Stocks" - see link
I get the picture
you LOVE dividend stocks
good for you - go for it -
I just don't care anymore
I don't wanna go any further with this discussion
go ahead and get the last word - as you always do - I know that's a favorite thing of yours
have a nice day


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/39452-i-love-dividend-stocks/

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 19, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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September 19th, 2024 at 12:33:46 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: billryan

I don't understand this thinking at all.


I really could care less what you don't understand re my ideas and my strategy
we've already been over this ad nauseam in your thread entitled "I Love Dividend Stocks" - see link
I get the picture
you LOVE dividend stocks
good for you - go for it -
I just don't care anymore
I don't wanna go any further with this discussion
go ahead and get the last word - as you always do - I know that's a favorite thing of yours
have a nice day


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/39452-i-love-dividend-stocks/

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link to original post



I don't know why you're so upset. I'm not knocking your style of investing; I'm\\ simply saying I don't understand it.
Did I knock it? Did I criticize you for doing things your way? Anytime I post about investing or buying something, I'm very clear that it is a way, not the way, not the only way, simply my way. I've never claimed my way is better than yours.
I would hope you are secure enough in your beliefs that someone saying they don't understand them wouldn't set you into a tizzy.
I apologize if my statement upset you. It wasn't my intention.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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September 19th, 2024 at 12:38:42 PM permalink
By the way, dividend investing is very similar.
AIPI went up a dollar a share yesterday, but I am only concerned with the dividend. The stock can go up or down; I only care about whether the dividend stays or goes up.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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September 19th, 2024 at 1:23:33 PM permalink
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thank you for your apology - it wasn't really necessary - I apologize for being rude
I felt like I completely explained my strategy in your thread - "I Love Dividend Stocks" - see link
I don't have anything to add to that
I thought what I stated was very clear - but maybe not - but I can't make it any more clear
what I already stated there, and here, is the best I can do for an explanation - I can't do better than that


https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/39452-i-love-dividend-stocks/

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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
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September 19th, 2024 at 1:39:15 PM permalink
I grew up in the buy and hold philosophy and am still guilty of holding many stocks too long. My father was the worst. He would hold stocks for 20 years and ride them all the way to zero. I remember he had a big position in Kresge and rode it down all the way through buying Sears and going to zero.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
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September 19th, 2024 at 4:16:52 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I grew up in the buy and hold philosophy and am still guilty of holding many stocks too long. My father was the worst. He would hold stocks for 20 years and ride them all the way to zero. I remember he had a big position in Kresge and rode it down all the way through buying Sears and going to zero.
link to original post



Around 2000, one of my aunts died, and my mom and her sisters each received shares in Lucent worth over $100,000. All of them held on to them as they sunk into near worthlessness. Mom didn't trust the stock market. It was strange- my parents bought us stocks as communion presents and encouraged weekly savings, but my parents didn't invest in stocks. My Mom's only shares when she died were Manulife, which had been John Hancock. She was given those when the company went public. The rest of her family bought phone company stocks and little else. Some 3M, while my Uncle worked for them. He thought they would become a huge company.
I was a buy-and-hold guy for years—ATT, Pepsi, US WEst, Motorola, Ericson, Marvel, Disney, Dial, P&G, and the like.
The market has changed over the last decade, and it is not for the better. When CDs drop down below 3%, a lot of new money should enter the market, and most of it will revolve around less than a dozen stocks. Millions of shares per second will be changing hands, driven by AI that knows failure means death.
Last edited by: billryan on Sep 19, 2024
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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September 20th, 2024 at 4:21:50 AM permalink
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to show the power of buy and hold with the S&P 500 index fund I will reveal some personal info
I began putting just $2K in my IRA each year at age 25 (just one of my accounts)
I retired at age 61 and stopped contributing - so that's 36 years - only $72K was put in - and it was put in little by little - not all at once
if all of that had been put in at age 25 it would have been way, way more
it's now close to $1 million - just a little shy of it
when I first noticed that, I was shocked at how high the account went - I didn't expect that
could I have done better actively trading________?
maybe - but I also could have done worse
like the song says "no regrets"

this is not intended as a brag
I'm aware that what I quoted is not a great sum of $ anymore
I only posted to show it's growth
I'm not a wealthy person and am not claiming to be one
just very comfortable with no need to earn income any more -
because of buy and hold investing with the S&P 500

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 20, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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September 20th, 2024 at 7:58:49 AM permalink
That is precisely how it is supposed to work. You invest small quantities along the way, and after forty years, it adds up so you can live comfortably. The question is- now that you have your million, what do you do with it?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
vegas
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September 20th, 2024 at 2:45:59 PM permalink
The stock market (Dow Jones) in October 1965 hit 9,500. It took 30 years to hit that number again Aug 1995. In other words anyone who bought in 1965 would have never seen a profit maybe in their investing lifetime. Timing is everything.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
SOOPOO
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September 20th, 2024 at 4:23:04 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

The stock market (Dow Jones) in October 1965 hit 9,500. It took 30 years to hit that number again Aug 1995. In other words anyone who bought in 1965 would have never seen a profit maybe in their investing lifetime. Timing is everything.
link to original post



You drinking? I think you added a zero to the 1965 number. It was in the 900’s in 1965.

Pretty sure no 30 year period without a reasonable appreciation in stock values.
billryan
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September 20th, 2024 at 4:32:25 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

The stock market (Dow Jones) in October 1965 hit 9,500. It took 30 years to hit that number again Aug 1995. In other words anyone who bought in 1965 would have never seen a profit maybe in their investing lifetime. Timing is everything.
link to original post



The stock market broke 1,000 for the first time around 1972, went down and it took a few years to regain that level.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
billryan
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September 20th, 2024 at 4:34:29 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

The stock market (Dow Jones) in October 1965 hit 9,500. It took 30 years to hit that number again Aug 1995. In other words anyone who bought in 1965 would have never seen a profit maybe in their investing lifetime. Timing is everything.
link to original post



Even if that were true, and it's not, the person would have thirty years' worth of dividend checks or own many more shares if he reinvested.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Calder
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September 20th, 2024 at 7:04:26 PM permalink
100 years of the DJIA

90 years of the S&P 500
vegas
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September 20th, 2024 at 7:26:12 PM permalink
Quote: Calder

100 years of the DJIA

90 years of the S&P 500
link to original post




That was the chart I looked at. I guess I read it wrong
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
billryan
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September 21st, 2024 at 12:59:56 AM permalink
Quote: vegas

Quote: Calder

100 years of the DJIA

90 years of the S&P 500
link to original post




That was the chart I looked at. I guess I read it wrong
link to original post



I saw that chart and have no idea what it describes. If you scroll down from it, you can see the actual numbers. The chart is misleading, if not wrong.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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September 21st, 2024 at 3:54:28 AM permalink
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in comparing dividend investing to investing for growth in a non IRA account
this is assuming you don't need the dividends for personal expenses
the dividend creates a taxable event
with growth investing (with often very small and insignificants dividends) there is no taxable event until you sell, except possibly for very smallish dividends
then there is a capital gains tax assuming there are gains
if possible, he can delay selling until after retirement so the tax % is less since he has no income from working, and the person investing for growth in this situation will pay less tax overall
if you need the dividends for personal expenses that is a different story
but the person investing for growth can sell at any time and obtain funds too
and in this situation will also have a capital gains tax obligation assuming there are gains

I can't provide proof of this but I believe in terms of total return (dividends and price appreciation) growth stocks or funds will generally outperform dividend stocks or funds

also, while the gain of the S&P and DJIA are very impressive, they are considerably less impressive if the true gain is calculated by factoring in inflation - and the constantly shrinking buying power of the dollar

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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Sep 21, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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September 21st, 2024 at 8:54:03 AM permalink
If inflation is 3% a year, and your investment doesn't return better than that, you will eventually lose your buying power. I find that stocks are the best way for me to stay ahead of inflation.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Calder
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September 21st, 2024 at 8:10:37 PM permalink
You're looking at the logarithmic scale, inflation adjusted.

Unclick the two check boxes at the top left of the chart.
lilredrooster
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October 3rd, 2024 at 4:37:39 AM permalink
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I bought a stock yesterday for the first time in a very long time - my thing has almost always been mutual funds with a few exceptions
I bought the high flying tech stock that is deep into AI - Nividia - NVDA
I am most definitely late getting into this - it's okay - whatever happens I'll accept it - I only used a small % of my portfolio to make the buy
on my first day with this stock it went up 1.58% while the s&p went up .01%____________woohoo______!!!

to me this is more like a bet than an investment -

ytd return - 140%_________one year_________173%__________3 year_____ 473.98%____________5 year_________2,645.47%

it's not gonna match that in the future - past performance is no guarantee of future performance - but hopefully it will stay strong

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/


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Last edited by: lilredrooster on Oct 3, 2024
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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October 3rd, 2024 at 5:58:30 AM permalink
I recently bought some, as well. I don't expect it to stay on its current trajectory but it should offer solid returns.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
lilredrooster
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October 3rd, 2024 at 7:32:51 AM permalink
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I'm thinking of doing some stock market "betting" each January - with a small % of my stuff
my idea is each January to buy the 3 highest flying stocks (greatest return) amongst the s&p 500 from the past year
I know I will be behind the curve - but I don't believe I have the ability or will to do enough research to find stocks that are low in price and likely to fly
and I believe some of these stocks such as NVDA can rally for several years
why the s&p 500_______?_________I'm more comfortable with large cap stocks
comments welcome
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the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
billryan
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October 3rd, 2024 at 10:24:47 AM permalink
The only wrong way to invest is to choose not to.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
SOOPOO
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October 4th, 2024 at 8:58:34 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

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I'm thinking of doing some stock market "betting" each January - with a small % of my stuff
my idea is each January to buy the 3 highest flying stocks (greatest return) amongst the s&p 500 from the past year
I know I will be behind the curve - but I don't believe I have the ability or will to do enough research to find stocks that are low in price and likely to fly
and I believe some of these stocks such as NVDA can rally for several years
why the s&p 500_______?_________I'm more comfortable with large cap stocks
comments welcome
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link to original post



I’m being serious. Throw a dart at the S and P 500 stock listings. Buy that stock.
I got in what I thought was ‘late’ on TSLA. Up more than 10 fold. Similar story with Berkshire Hathaway.
You and I have no real way to tell what’s happening ( or GOING TO happen) with any individual stock. Have fun!

Just sold a bunch of TSM to put a down payment down for a house. (Capital gains issue!)
DRich
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October 4th, 2024 at 9:00:12 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


Just sold a bunch of TSM to put a down payment down for a house. (Capital gains issue!)



House in Florida I hope.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 4th, 2024 at 9:04:46 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Just sold a bunch of TSM to put a down payment down for a house. (Capital gains issue!)



House in Florida I hope.
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Yeah. But I hate even mentioning it until I close. I’m in the mortgage hunting phase now. It’s a misery. I’ll hijack just this once here. The ‘recommended’ lender local to where I’m buying was OVER A FULL POINT higher than what I can get. I’m hoping to get this part done by Monday.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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October 4th, 2024 at 9:15:44 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Just sold a bunch of TSM to put a down payment down for a house. (Capital gains issue!)

House in Florida I hope.

Yeah.


just curious if you don't mind my asking
you're not concerned about hurricanes, extreme weather events________?
I read a story in the nyt indicating homeowners in Tampa are having 2nd thoughts
.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
DRich
DRich
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October 4th, 2024 at 9:29:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO


Just sold a bunch of TSM to put a down payment down for a house. (Capital gains issue!)



House in Florida I hope.
link to original post



Yeah. But I hate even mentioning it until I close. I’m in the mortgage hunting phase now. It’s a misery. I’ll hijack just this once here. The ‘recommended’ lender local to where I’m buying was OVER A FULL POINT higher than what I can get. I’m hoping to get this part done by Monday.
link to original post



Best of luck. I was in your neighborhood of the Villages last week.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
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October 4th, 2024 at 10:24:06 AM permalink
There's a new wave of people moving into the Villages and changing their way of life. I was watching a YouTube video of yard signs, golf carts, and bumper stickers, and it was surprising. It's a nice lifestyle, but it costs more than I was comfortable spending right now.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
DRich
DRich
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October 4th, 2024 at 10:34:06 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

There's a new wave of people moving into the Villages and changing their way of life. I was watching a YouTube video of yard signs, golf carts, and bumper stickers, and it was surprising. It's a nice lifestyle, but it costs more than I was comfortable spending right now.
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The Villages is a nice community. It kind of reminds me of some areas in Scottsdale.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
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October 4th, 2024 at 10:53:15 AM permalink
Absolutely. I tried to get my mom to move their, but she wouldn't budge.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
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