Unlikely events

A deck of cards is shuffled thousands of times. Then is dealt out in perfect sequential order as if it were brand new and never shuffled.

However, any random arrangement of cards after the shuffle is just as likely. Being able to predict the K of hearts will be first, then 3 of clubs, and 5 of diamonds and so on is different thing than if something will happen. So, in a way, I would say extremely rare, impossible things to predict happen every single day, but predicting impossible events is often what we're talking about not events actually happening.

So the odds of seeing something really rare in a particular arrangement are different than extremely rare events happening every day? Saying something impossibly rare won't happen is different than being able to predict that rare thing. All around us massively extremely rare events that will never happen again in 3 lifetimes of the Universe are happening every day. Agree or disagree?

But don't ask me to explain anything.

Quote: rxwine

A deck of cards is shuffled thousands of times. Then is dealt out in perfect sequential order as if it were brand new and never shuffled.
link to original post

https://youtu.be/SLIvwtIuC3Y?t=108

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: rxwine

A deck of cards is shuffled thousands of times. Then is dealt out in perfect sequential order as if it were brand new and never shuffled.
link to original post

https://youtu.be/SLIvwtIuC3Y?t=108
link to original post

I thought this was going to be something about a multiple of 8 perfect outriffles.

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: rxwine

A deck of cards is shuffled thousands of times. Then is dealt out in perfect sequential order as if it were brand new and never shuffled.
link to original post

https://youtu.be/SLIvwtIuC3Y?t=108
link to original post

See, I would note, that even if a specific unlikely event we are looking for will not happen, some other extremely unlikely event could be happening every day that we're not looking for, which is why we don't notice it, rather than it not happening.

the real question here is... if the deck being perfectly unshuffled is completely random if its been shuffled into that order from a known common rng?

the ghost of Alan Mendelson

I think what I can't fathom, but maybe you can tell me I'm wrong

If an event has one chance in 5,559,917,313,492,231,481 of happening, but there are 500,559,917,313,492,231,481 trials, then now it has a good chance of happening during the trials. Don't know what that is.

However, one you are going to have that many trials, what gets me is: it's just as likely to happen in the first few trials as anytime else. Am I wrong?

I meant to use 18^18 or 39,346,408,075,296,537,575,424 but never mind

those youtube videos, one point is the assumption is that each shuffle produces the same result as a random process

If you started with a new deck and shuffled maybe 3 times, there's probably a fair chance you'd duplicate given a reasonable number of trials

Also, after determining to shufflle 52 cards say 806581751709438785716606368564037669752895054408832778240000000000000 times [I added a zero]
and indeed getting random each time, with now a fair percentage chance of duplication, once you set that in motion and it will be completed [yeah, I know, impossible] the chances it would happen right away are just as good as that it would happen towards the end, right? No one has said no yet

As the Wizard points out, if you are trying to hit a royal in VP, and have been going at it for months, when you stop at any point, you are no closer now to hitting than you ever were in the beginning ... I think this is a corollary

The number of actions and reactions in the entire Universe, is so extensive and complex, I'd probably argue it's impossible to know if it's actually in any way random, any more than the final resting place of all Billard balls after the opening break will be. We just may be on a really big table.

Right now, we're somewhere in the middle the opening break (probably)

Of course, my point isn't about that, it's about seeing unlikely events, which i argue happen every day, even if it's near impossible to see one we're actually looking for by predicting correctly when it will occur.