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Mission146
Mission146
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mwalz9
December 5th, 2022 at 4:15:04 PM permalink
I think the last post you quoted was satirizing himself. MWalz is a man from West Virginia, so there's no way he cried, thus the event is satire.

I usually try not to play the macho dude, but one thing men brought up in that area DO NOT do is cry.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
avianrandy
avianrandy 
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Mission146mwalz9
December 5th, 2022 at 4:23:16 PM permalink
I wish you the best of luck mwalz9. A former coworker self excluded himself from his home state casinos. He started going to other states to gamble. Then he started having bad luck and came back to his home state casinos a few times because he was broke and hoped to find some of his friends who owed him money. This was during the self exclusion period. He got arrested and charged with trespassing. He had even sold his lawn mower because he was sure he would win and didn't cut his grass. It is a slippery slope.he eventually made it now working a different lower paying job. Now he plays scratch offs heavily. Good luck to you mwalz9
OnceDear
OnceDear
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Mission146
December 5th, 2022 at 4:27:40 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I think the last post you quoted was satirizing himself. MWalz is a man from West Virginia, so there's no way he cried, thus the event is satire.

I usually try not to play the macho dude, but one thing men brought up in that area DO NOT do is cry.
link to original post

Well, if there was any truth in the post, where he said he'd lost his 1800 bankroll while chasing a $50 dinner, then I could imagine him crying inside.

His posting style concerns me. For now, I take it all at face value.
The timeline fits. 3 years ago he discovers online wagering. 18 months ago he has thoroughly embraced it. 11 months ago he was describing his losing session. And now here he is, describing his downfall, which obviously is not super recent.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Dec 6, 2022
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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Mission146
December 6th, 2022 at 1:44:03 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: ChumpChange

So a $300K loss on $9 million bet is a 3.33% HA. What games were you playing and what were your sore spots? Online gaming is 10X faster than B&M.
link to original post



My net loss was less than 2% of my amount wagered.

I played BlackJack (I know basic strategy), slots, and bet on sports.
link to original post

2% loss if $9M is $180k.
yike! never thought of that high of a loss for 98% return.

many years ago the 1st time i did $1M coin-in in a year, i made $6k.
this was mostly on 3/4/5x odds e-Craps. it earned points at the same rate as vp.
the next year, the earn rate was 2x that of vp (or 4x that of slots) so i stopped playing that.

your post made me realize how lucky i was.
also lucky in that the casino raised the points earn rate so i quit playing that while i was ahead.

And congrats on realizing you needed to quit and actually made it difficult for yourself to gamble again!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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Mission146
December 6th, 2022 at 2:03:27 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Well, if there was any truth in the post, where he said he'd lost his 1800 bankroll wile chasing a $50 dinner, then I could imagine him crying inside.

His posting style concerns me. For now, I take it all at face value.
The timeline fits. 3 years ago he discovers online wagering. 18 months ago he has thoroughly embraced it. 11 months ago he was describing his losing session. And now here he is, describing his downfall, which obviously is not super recent.
link to original post

wow.. from 6figure bank acct down to gambling his mortgage payment in 6 months?!?

i am so glad the default max limit atm withdraw on my debit card is $2k and the max i can up it to for next 24hrs is $4k even though i have 5 figures in that acct.
(and i was told the reason for that is liability of card being stolen/fraud)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
MDawg
MDawg
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Mission146
December 6th, 2022 at 2:44:05 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9



My net loss was less than 2% of my amount wagered.

I played BlackJack (I know basic strategy), slots, and bet on sports.
link to original post


Slots - terrible odds, never touch the stuff.

Sports - not sure what the house edge is or should be, as I don't do that either.

But blackjack - even without counting or any other advantage play, you should be able to find a table with a house edge of about nothing - miles below 2%?

Anyway, maybe you know exactly what you wagered. Maybe you don't.

Problem gamblers tend to not know when to stop. So does this mean that everyone who plays in the casino without an edge is destined to lose? I don't think so.

If you donít mind answering - based on how much you placed across the circle (your handle) - would you say that you lost more or less than the house edge over this long period that you played blackjack.

My belief is that some gamblers (including problem ones) lose everything at most every session - they canít stop when ahead and just keep playing almost every time until all the chips are gone. They keep chasing ever mounting losses and keep losing entire bankrolls time and again, as they keep thinking that they will or must get back to even with a lowering bankroll and same max bet. For them, risk of ruin supersedes house edge time and again.

Anyway, I don't believe that the house edge or the player advantage is all there is to it. I play with an advantage and win more than what I believe my mathematical edge is. And I also played craps for some years with no edge, and I still ended up about even probably a little ahead, definitely did not lose the expected house edge at craps. Maybe my huge bankroll places risk of ruin so far out of reach that that becomes a non-issue for me, and maybe that helps my over all record.

There are irritants out there who keep claiming that have won exactly what would be expected based on counting cards, but those players' posts were debunked to the point where no one even thinks that those players even really play blackjack at all, and just lifted whatever has been posted from reading online and in books.

I don't think I have ever played blackjack without counting and often with other edges too, and the sums I have won at blackjack are FAR more than would be expected.

Once you've resigned yourself to thinking in black and white you might as well just stay out of casinos period, would probably be the best advice.
Last edited by: MDawg on Dec 6, 2022
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
OnceDear
OnceDear
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Mission146odiousgambit
December 6th, 2022 at 4:09:51 AM permalink
[A few edit's for brevity. Bolding is mine]
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: mwalz9

Hey guys,

Long time no see.

Just wanted to pop in and see how everyone was. ...
Hope all is well here. Miss you guys!
link to original post

Sorry to hear that. FYI, this is probably a bad place to hang out.
link to original post


Not hanging out. Just came to check in and touch base with friends. Haven't opened a thread besides this one.
link to original post


Someone with a gambling problem checking in and touching base on a gambling forum with gambling friends is usually a bad idea. It seems innocent enough, but it could be a slippery slope one doesn't even realize. Just something to think about.
link to original post



What AxelWolf said!!!

Looking even deeper into MWalz9's threads,
It's clear that he could never shake off the idea that if he had enough bankroll, then he was destined to win with hit and run strategies. Even as recently as 2021, he was still embracing Martingale. He was also spending 5-6 nights a week at a bricks and mortar casino, even before getting deep into online.
Quote: 100xOdds

wow.. from 6figure bank acct down to gambling his mortgage payment in 6 months?!?
i am so glad the default max limit atm withdraw on my debit card is $2k and the max i can up it to for next 24hrs is $4k even though i have 5 figures in that acct.link to original post


5 figures could soon go. Don't do it 100x

Again, taking all MWalz's posts at face value, there are patterns that many of us can relate to. A few early wins in the $thousands, a few advantage plays that worked, afeeling that all that money behind him was bankroll, but not money in danger, and most pernicious of all, an embracing of the idea that taking a few thousand to the casino would give repeatable opportunities to 'hit and run' for $50, $100 or whatever.
There's a loud siren warning of the dangers of accessible online gambling, too. He seems to have gone from an hour and a half round trip to the casino twice a month, to 6 nights a week in casino, to wagering every day online.
Quote: mwalz9

I live in West Virginia....1.5 hours south of The Meadows, my "home" casino. I play craps and bet the buggies. I try to get up there at least twice a month.link to original post


Then more...
Quote: mwalz9

So I go to Mardi Gras casino in WV about 5-6 nights a week. My gf goes with me every Saturday. Im a Black Diamond player there and many of the dealers and pit bosses know me on a first name basis. I am a respected player and play blackjack and craps. I typically tip, very very well.
....
I said, its all random, its all math. Learn it!
link to original post

Then more again ...
Quote: mwalz9

For instance, I stop at the casino between my house and work 4-5 times a week. I bet on every sporting event I plan to watch, which means I bet on one usually every night. I also, when not watching a sport on TV I have money on, play an online casino game on my tablet at home in the evenings bored. Many people would call that a definite addicted gambler.
link to original post



And here he is thinking about hit and run progressive systems.
His math brain knows it's nonsense.... Or does it?
Quote: mwalz9


I know no betting systems work. The math and logic of an -EV game catches up with you...ALWAYS!

So, while this is not a betting system, I parked it here for the lack of a better place.

So you have a $10,000 bankroll. Your goal as a gambler is to make $100/day, 365 days a year. Basically, $36,500/yr additional income.

Playing any of the close to 50/50 games...craps line bets, roulette even money bets, blackjack, baccarat or Pai Gow Poker, what are the odds you win your $100 before losing $10,000?

Say you bet $50 units. No crazy systems like Martingale, Oscar's Grind, etc...

Just betting normally.

Surely you can be up 2 units before you're down 200?
Right?


The big bankroll with small win goal has to make this highly favorable.
link to original post



This is exactly why, back in my moderating days, I was so scathing of anyone touting 'Hit and run', 'Win goal' strategies. It's so easy to get seduced by the appeal of such Bull.

Even now, this forum permits and encourages folk to emulate such nonsense.

Should forum moderators have any duty of care? Or are we ALL big boys and girls perfectly capable of staying safe?
MWalz, sadly disproves the latter question quite conclusively. Which just leaves the first question.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
DRich
DRich
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JohnnyQMission146odiousgambitmwalz9
December 6th, 2022 at 4:10:05 AM permalink
I am generally not a compassionate man, but in this case I really feel bad for the poster. I wish him the best and hope he can manage his demons.
Order from chaos
OnceDear
OnceDear
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JohnnyQMission146mwalz9
December 6th, 2022 at 4:55:17 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I am generally not a compassionate man, but in this case I really feel bad for the poster. I wish him the best and hope he can manage his demons.
link to original post

Likewise. But he's not out of danger yet. None of us are.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
AxelWolf
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Mission146odiousgambitmwalz9
December 6th, 2022 at 5:37:25 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Anyway, I don't believe that the house edge or the player advantage is all there is to it.

That's all there is to it.

That's exactly why people get into bad situations like this, people are going around thinking/ being told there's something more to it.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I know a few people that are Advantage Players who are addicted to action/playing, but they only play games with an advantage they won't touch -EV stuff unless absolutely necessary for cover. They are super successful. Aside from being smart, their success is also contributed to the eagerness to find +EV plays and to put a ton of hours in.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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