Why do casinos let well known APs play?

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
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Ab so effing lutely.

It's like you are just determined to speak on matters you have no knowledge of
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I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

That keeps the gamble in the game.
link to original post

Have you ever been to a casino? Virtually every WMS, AGS, Ainsworth, or Aristocrat MH is unlinked. IGT Harley (RIP) or Safari-type prog is unlinked.

I assume you are just trolling now unless you live in some weird place that does not feature the dominant flavors of MH games.

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.

And please... not a single machine with a top jackpot of $50.

I'm looking for 10Gs as JackSpade mentioned.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.
link to original post

If I was still in Vegas I would do that for you but I am in Florida and haven't been to a casino in Florida in about 10 years.

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.
link to original post

If I was still in Vegas I would do that for you but I am in Florida and haven't been to a casino in Florida in about 10 years.
link to original post

Perhaps someone else can prove me wrong?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.
link to original post

If I was still in Vegas I would do that for you but I am in Florida and haven't been to a casino in Florida in about 10 years.
link to original post

Perhaps someone else can prove me wrong?
link to original post

How about the Wizard.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot-ainsworth/

He already did the math on standalone Ainsworth must hits.

Or do you want the Wizard to provide you with pictures.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.
link to original post

If I was still in Vegas I would do that for you but I am in Florida and haven't been to a casino in Florida in about 10 years.
link to original post

Perhaps someone else can prove me wrong?
link to original post

How about the Wizard.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot-ainsworth/

He already did the math on standalone Ainsworth must hits.

Or do you want the Wizard to provide you with pictures.
link to original post

I dont see a jackpot over $400.

JackSpade talked about a $10,000 must hit being on a single machine.

Show me a picture.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I dont see a jackpot over $400.

JackSpade talked about a $10,000 must hit being on a single machine.

Show me a picture.
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I think it is on you to prove such a ridiculous claim. I have scouted and played MH progressives all over the US and I have never seen a $15,999 Aristocrat MH that is linked. I have never seen a $5K, $10K, or $50K Ainsworth that is linked. I have never seen a $5K AGS game that is linked. I believe I have seen over 200-300 games that fall in these categories.

Besides, showing one machine can never prove it is unlinked.

You are surely trollling us.

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?
link to original post

$20,000 to win $45,000?

Nah. Who would want to do something stupid like that.

SMFH

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?
link to original post

$20,000 to win $45,000?

Nah. Who would want to do something stupid like that.

SMFH
link to original post

Read it again.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

That keeps the gamble in the game.
link to original post

(Quote clipped, relevance)

Have you never been to a casino? Many of your other posts would have led me to believe that you've been to a casino before. Didn't you get married in a casino? That's at least one time you've been to one.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

Pretty much every thread he contributes to.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

All I ask is for a photo of a $10,000 must hit progressive that proves it's a stand-alone and unlinked machine.

One photo.

I'm not talking about stand-alone $400 must hits. Only a $10,000 must hit.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DRich

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'd like to see this ab so effing lutely single machine progressive.

I see lots of must hit jackpot machines... but they all have multiple machines linked in.

There are many single machine must hit progressives.
link to original post

Please take a picture of just one.

One picture showing it's a stand alone must hit progressive. That's all I ask.

And please... not a single machine with a top jackpot of $50.

I'm looking for 10Gs as JackSpade mentioned.
link to original post

I'll do it for $200. What I do mostly does not involve land-based casinos, at present, so I'm only going to do this if you make it worth my time (and gas) to go there.

Quote: DRich

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

Pretty much every thread he contributes to.
link to original post

Just trying to keep you on your toes.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?
link to original post

$20,000 to win $45,000?

Nah. Who would want to do something stupid like that.

SMFH
link to original post

Read it again.
link to original post

Okay I was looking at Mental example.

But still losing $20,000 to win $10,000 would still be an advantage play if you began when the odds were in your favor to profit

Not every AP is guaranteed profit in the short term. But over time you will turn a profit if you keep playing only when you have the advantage.

It's only ploppies who imagine an AP always wins every wager or session.

Quote: Mental

Besides, showing one machine can never prove it is unlinked.

(Quote clipped, relevance)

My plan was to take pictures of an entire bank and every machine in the casino sharing the same title(s) such as to make it undeniable. The only way it could be denied is if AlanMendelson wanted to argue that there are, what? 20+ different machines elsewhere in the casino sharing a title and are linked to the others despite being nowhere near the others.

For the right price, I'll just take pictures of every machine in the casino, but $200 isn't the right price for that.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

All I ask is for a photo of a $10,000 must hit progressive that proves it's a stand-alone and unlinked machine.

One photo.

I'm not talking about stand-alone $400 must hits. Only a $10,000 must hit.
link to original post

You were just shown a photo of a $45,000 must hit that was standalone.

I mean they don't say the word standalone on the machine. What exactly do you want to see?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?
link to original post

It depends on a wide variety of factors. If you're going to guarantee $10,000 on $20,000 coin-in, and let's assume you weren't playing on a clean players card, then you would have to believe that you were not going to drop 50%+ of all coin-in on the reels for that not to be a play.***

***This assumes that I understood your question correctly, which I may not have. If you're saying that it takes $20,000 per meter move then first there is no machine that would ever require that I could think of, and second, that would almost never be a play.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

I find it fascinating that someone involved with casinos his entire life can be wrong (at least what he posts about) on virtually every significant issue!

Alan, why do you challenge the people here who are actually doing it? Just because you can’t figure it out? You just make yourself look ……. (Suspension avoided)

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

All I ask is for a photo of a $10,000 must hit progressive that proves it's a stand-alone and unlinked machine.

One photo.

I'm not talking about stand-alone $400 must hits. Only a $10,000 must hit.
link to original post

You were just shown a photo of a $45,000 must hit that was standalone.

I mean they don't say the word standalone on the machine. What exactly do you want to see?
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The machines on either side will suffice.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The machines on either side will suffice.
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(Quote clipped, relevance)

The high-limit room at Rivers casino in Pittsburgh has a four bank of must-hit machines that I believe are Ainsworth titles. All four are standalone with both a Minor and a Major jackpot. As I recall, the Major jackpot for these machines is $10,000...I'm fairly confident of that, but I know it is either $5,000 or $10,000 100%.

I don't recall whether or not all four machines are different titles, but I know there are at least two different titles between the four.

Unless they have changed these machines very recently to be linked, then they are unlinked. If they have changed them to be linked, then I can prove unlinked machines that are must-hits with Major jackpots of $1,000, or more, elsewhere in the casino.

If this evidence will suffice for you, it will be much easier for me to do and less time-consuming, so I will go and take such pictures for $150.

Quote: darkoz

Not every AP is guaranteed profit in the short term. But over time you will turn a profit if you keep playing only when you have the advantage.

It's only ploppies who imagine an AP always wins every wager or session.
link to original post

Thank you. You made my point.

APs don't always win and that's why casinos let them play.

Now, wasn't that easy?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

All I ask is for a photo of a $10,000 must hit progressive that proves it's a stand-alone and unlinked machine.

One photo.

I'm not talking about stand-alone $400 must hits. Only a $10,000 must hit.
link to original post

You were just shown a photo of a $45,000 must hit that was standalone.

I mean they don't say the word standalone on the machine. What exactly do you want to see?
link to original post

The machines on either side will suffice.
link to original post

They are in just about every Casino in Atlantic City. If someone is there to take a pic.

It's actually quite rude at this point to insist on physical proof when everyone is testifying that they exist and several people including myself have played them.

Usually I play $16,000 must hits. All standalone.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Not every AP is guaranteed profit in the short term. But over time you will turn a profit if you keep playing only when you have the advantage.

It's only ploppies who imagine an AP always wins every wager or session.
link to original post

Thank you. You made my point.

APs don't always win and that's why casinos let them play.

Now, wasn't that easy?
link to original post

Your point was that AP's do not profit on every single play that they do? Why play games rather than just ask that directly? If there's an AP that claims to have made a profit on every single play he has ever done, then I have certainly never met him or her and that person would almost definitely be lying.

But, you have made a very good point. I would also like to make a point that grass is green as a result of a pigment called chlorophyll and it is typically the purpose of bridges to enable people to cross over bodies of water or some other chasm.

This is the kind of top-tier gambling information that gets people visiting these sites. I am so glad that we could have such an illuminating conversation.

I saw some $2,500 and $10,000 must-hit machines in AZ last year. I was tempted to play the 'best' one but didn't know how to verify that it was in advantaged state (I think there's always some guesswork as to the machine's payback percentage) and didn't have enough bankroll immediately available.

Quote: DRich

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

I am referring (for example) to Ainsworth must-hit progressive slots.
link to original post

Of course there's only ONE machine linked to this progressive.

Right?
link to original post

Sometimes. In some casinos, usually. In a few casinos, always.

Your posts in this thread have been almost entirely wrong.
link to original post

Pretty much every thread he contributes to.
link to original post

It sounds like he should be educated, not ridiculed. AM appears to be a typical career gambler who has the usual misunderstandings that typical ploppies have.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Not every AP is guaranteed profit in the short term. But over time you will turn a profit if you keep playing only when you have the advantage.

It's only ploppies who imagine an AP always wins every wager or session.
link to original post

Thank you. You made my point.

APs don't always win and that's why casinos let them play.

Now, wasn't that easy?
link to original post

Stupidest post of the (fill in day, month, year, whatever). Skilled card counters don’t win every hand. Do casinos ‘let them play’?

Casinos would ban all APs if it was simple. They try to ban DarkOz, but he has countermeasures. They try to identify card counters, and occasionally succeed. They try to ferret out bonus abusers, and occasionally succeed.

Maybe a thread hijack, but I found out a nephew of mine (40ish?) is a pit boss in a southwestern casino. I asked him about card counters. He says his casino ‘deals with’ around one a month. He says his job is more to catch rogue dealers, capping betters, card markers, etc…. He says most counters are poor at it. Some are blatant that they will be betting $50 and all of a sudden spread two hands at $1k! Those are the ones he tends to ‘deal with’.

Back on topic. The energy/money/time/ unintended consequences of combatting AP is why the casinos leave loopholes for Axel/DarkOz/Wizard/me! to slip through.

Casinos have taken enough measures to render card counting futile that they aren't very concerned about it anymore compared to other advantage plays and cheats. In Blackjack Apprentice's latest video, he calls himself a "former professional card counter" and admits card counting in Las Vegas is essentially dead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_D70PxB6sA

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: JackSpade

Or an AP just happens to walk by a machine primed to pay out a $10,000 progressive jackpot to the next player who is willing to risk $5,000.
link to original post

Let's also consider the meter in JackSpades example.

He talks about playing a $10,000 must hit machine.

He needs to know how much the meter moves with each play.

Is this really an AP play if it takes $20,000 to move the meter to the most hit amount?
link to original post

He/she is not an AP is they don't already know the Ainsworth $10K meter rates are probably 0.4% and 0.15% (rarely, 0.45% and 0.2%) and knows the meter entry points for those rates. They check the meter rate on the first few spins to confirm what they know is true for almost every Ainsworth.

For AGS, you must move the meter very close to the MH value. For other manufacturers, you need much less coin in. It is not clear what you mean by ' takes $20,000'. Do you mean worst possible stuck amount, coin-in, or loss after the fact?

Honestly, I wonder if you have ever set foot in a casino.

The more fascinating question in my opinion is not why Casinos allow advantage player's but why do AP's get caught?

It's my experience that it's usually some error in judgement and or bad luck.

For example I just had a casino catch me when on someone else's card because the machine malfunctioned, went through an entire reboot and then froze.

With over $2000 in the machine they had to contact surveillance for verification. And boom, the very next day that player's card was toast along with mine (this casino checks ID at the door so they were able to pull me up easily.)

The rewards clerk told me I was observed using someone else's card so my offers were revoked. So I have no doubt what happened.

Really if it wasn't for mistakes and bad luck most machine AP would go under the radar IMO.

Quote: JackSpade

I saw some $2,500 and $10,000 must-hit machines in AZ last year. I was tempted to play the 'best' one but didn't know how to verify that it was in advantaged state (I think there's always some guesswork as to the machine's payback percentage) and didn't have enough bankroll immediately available.
link to original post

I know I've shared this story before, but it's a funny story, so here we go again. After that, I'll help you establish kind of a minimal case sort of thing, but I will first say that if there is anyone running cards in the casino in question you will usually not get any high MH in a profitable position on their own because the card runners will tend to take them WELL before they are independently +EV.

Anyway, I'm on my way back from Atlantic City, but I had some business at Hollywood Casino in Grantville PA (nice place, imo) which is just north of Harrisburg, PA, the state's capital.

I don't know if the layout of the place is still the same, but at the time, this would be going in the main entrance, immediately making a left, walking most of the way to the wall and looking to your right. Around that spot, you would see the majority of the property's video poker machines (having looked right) but before you get to those there are several slot machines including a bank of MH machines.

These particular MH machines had a meter move of $2.50 for $0.01 meter move on the Minor, which was a must-hit of $200. Anyway, I happened to find one of these machines north of $198.xx, so I arrogantly chuckled to myself and said, "I like free money."

At first, I thought maybe it was some kind of gimmick with a meter move of $50 coin-in, or something crazy, so I set my bet to $1.25 and my eyes locked on the Minor meter just to make sure that it was moving, right? Sure enough, $2.50 moves it a penny, so I had to do less than $500 coin in:

2.50 (meter move) * 200 (meter moves if starting from $198 and I was starting higher) = $500.

In order to hit the MH if it ran all the way to $200.

Okay, so this is a slam dunk. I almost want to say that I had to do less than $400 coin-in, but this was several years ago, so I'm not willing to commit to saying it was less than $400.

Anyway, I LOST by the time it hit. I think it ran all the way up to $199.98, or something, and I had one bonus (I kept my bet at $1.25 since I figured it wouldn't take that long anyway and I could reduce variance compared to max betting) that paid something like $7 and lost on virtually every other spin.

So, on this MH where I could guarantee $200 on somewhere between $350-$450 coin-in, I think I lost $100, or something.

I think it's pretty hysterical. I still look back on that and laugh from time to time. It's probably the worst I have ever performed on anything relative to what my EV should have been.

Anyway, you can get a minimum case scenario by doing the following steps:

1.) If it's a commercial casino, look up (or already know) the minimum overall Return-to-Player (RTP) for slot machines in the state. Machines will almost never be set so low, but that gives you a minimal case.

2.) Determine the meter move for each jackpot.

3.) Determine what total percentage of all bets feeds the meter and subtract that from #1.

4.) Determine the starting point for the Progressives and I would use the midpoint, personally, to calculate the average number of spins to hit the progressive starting from base for each progressive. Determine how much coin-in it would take to do that for each progressive and then determine what percentage of that coin-in the Progressive reflects at base. Add the two percentages together and then subtract that from your result from Step #3.

For example, let's say a machine had a meter move of $5.00 coin-in to move it $0.01 in a jurisdiction with a minimum RTP of 80%. For simplicity, we will pretend that is the only jackpot on the machine. The meter moves at a rate of 0.2% for all bets, so now you knock the return down to 79.8% assumed return.

Okay, let's say the jackpot range is $9,000 to $10,000, so just because we have to assume something, we will assume that the average hit point should be $9500. One thing that is very important is that you CANNOT assume that you will actually hit at the midpoint of where you start and the MH point as some machines are deliberately programmed to be more likely to run high, so keep that in mind.

Anyway, if the jackpot at base looks like $9000.00, then you would have to move it 50,000 pennies in order to reach the average between base and top MH point, so that would be $250,000 coin-in. What we want to do is 9000/250000 = .036, so we know that the assumed base value of the jackpot is 3.6%.

Making this assumption won't hurt you if the jackpot is deliberately set to run high because you would then be overvaluing the base amount of the progressive. For example, if you KNEW that the jackpot could only hit at $10,000, then it would take 100,000 meter moves to get there, which would be $500,000 coin in and the base value of the jackpot would only be 1.8% of the return.***

***NOTE: If you somehow did know that, however, then it would make more sense just to calculate based on how much coin-in you would have to put to get it to $10,000 and how $10,000 relates to the amount of coin-in you actually have to play as a percentage.

Anyway, so we go with 3.6% of the return from base and subtract that from our 79.8% to get 76.2% worst-case scenario return to player on the reels.

5.) You can either use, "Midpoint," to determine how much coin-in that you would have to run to be, "Expected," to hit the jackpot or you could make an assumption that is higher than that. If you use Midpoint (this just means haflway between the MH top amount and where it is now) then you can easily calculate the coin-in needed and multiply that by .238 (23.8%) to determine whether or not you are expected to lose more on the reels than the value of the jackpot.

6.) If there are multiple jackpots on the machine, then you can determine the equity you have in the other jackpots if you want to. I would say doing that is most relevant if you are going after a Major because you can sometimes know that if the Major runs to a certain point or beyond that you absolutely WILL hit the Minor at least once, even if the Minor wouldn't necessarily be good by itself.

7.) Unless a machine is KNOWN to be more likely to run high because of the way it is programmed, I tend to assume that it will run 75% of the way to the top (relative to where it is now) before I hit it and do the math for Item #5 accordingly.

8.) Because I am super conservative, I never consider the value of the other jackpots as favorable to me, unless they are also positive by themselves. Of course, I do still subtract the base value of any other jackpots from my assumed return on the reels.

9.) And, if you do this the way I do, you will almost never find a play because you are WAY too conservative****** and/or there are card runners at your casino so you probably still wouldn't find a play even if you were more aggressive than I am because they'll hop on if they think they are getting 95%, or something. They don't need the MH to be good, they just need it to be better than other slot machines. In fact, some will just play whatever MH is highest, regardless of game state, if they have enough cards to run because it still reflects some amount up to 10k that they KNOW they are getting back sooner or later.

******Even being absurdly conservative, as I am, you'll be net profitable but will still lose a fair percentage of individual plays!

I reserve the right to edit my most recent post and not have it be held against me. I have an errand to run, so it's possible I mis phrased something just out of being in a hurry.

I should ask the Rewards clerk why I'm not getting mailers anymore if I don't get any this weekend. I don't expect them to say I was observed cashing out sub-$1 vouchers at other seats on the Bubble Craps machine. Seems those vouchers are worth more than the points I'm earning anyway on any day at this time. But I do miss those $40 Free Plays I was getting a couple months ago. Ask stupid questions, get stupid answers though.

Quote: darkoz

Really if it wasn't for mistakes and bad luck most machine AP would go under the radar IMO.
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You forgot another way to get flagged: by making too much money on any one account. That is a disadvantage of not using burner accounts. We have enough to do to keep us busy on just our two accounts, thank you very much.

Thanks for the info, Mission146. I have heard stories of APs losing tens of thousands on Ainsworth plays because the jackpots don't hit until the tail end of their cycle. Maybe they aren't factoring in that the machines are rigged to make a late hit likelier than an early hit.

I may try chasing a $400 or $1,000 major that looks decent on my next trip to the casino just for fun and experimentation.

Quote: JackSpade

Thanks for the info, Mission146. I have heard stories of APs losing tens of thousands on Ainsworth plays because the jackpots don't hit until the tail end of their cycle. Maybe they aren't factoring in that the machines are rigged to make a late hit likelier than an early hit.

I may try chasing a $400 or $1,000 major that looks decent on my next trip to the casino just for fun and experimentation.
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Edit: You're welcome.

That's how they can go on the big ones. Generally speaking, if they run higher than you are expecting them to hit, then you often will lose some large sum of money. The reason for that is because, let's make a really aggressive assumption and say that you're only expected to drop 15% on the reels, in terms of EV:

Okay, so let's suppose you start playing one at $9880 and we will call it a $5 meter move just to keep things really simple. The machine looks like $9880.00, so suppose that it runs all the way to $9990.00 just for the heck of it. Okay, so we have done 11,000 meter moves ($55,000 coin in) before the machine actually managed to hit. If we had an expected loss on the reels of 15% of all coin-in, then we would expect to lose $8,250 on the reels, but the jackpot hit at $9,990, so we should still look $1,740 to the good, right?

The first problem is that you're probably betting at least $5 per spin if you don't want to be there for 7,000 years, so that $1,740 to the good that you think is going to happen if you run that high (and is also based on a VERY aggressive assumption, imo) is really just the difference of running a few Free Games less than expected, the average return of free games being less than expected, or even just running a few decent line pays below expected.

You're also not going to find very many $9880 plays on a must-hit of 10k as card runners would salivate at the thought of a number like that, even if they thought that the reels were going to cost you a little more than 15% of coin-in on all spins.

Many AP's are going to be perfectly happy to take MUCH lower numbers than that, so most of the time, if the machine is going to run that high, then they are expected to lose money even with the 15% assumption. The amount that they get paid when the MH actually hits would still fail to cover the expected loss just on the reels.

If we go ahead and keep our 15% assumption and assume that it's going to hit at $9990, then we could find what our breakeven starting point would be based on those assumptions:

9990 - (.15 * x) = 0

In the simple equation above, x reflects the amount of coin-in (which is being multiplied by 15% loss on reels) and we want to find our breakeven point under these assumptions.

x = 66,000

Okay, so we would have $66,000 coin-in to do this, so divide that by $5.00 (cost to move the meter a penny) and you have 13,200 meter moves. That means we have to do:

9990.00 - 132.00 = $9,858.00

Okay, so we start at $9858 and move the meter 13,200 times for total coin in of $66,000 and we lose 15% of that which is $9900 and will have made $90 overall. The x is a simple formula, but is not perfectly exact. Either way, 90/.15 = 600 means another $600 coin-in to be even, which is 120 more meter moves, so:

9858 - 1.20 = 9856.80

Okay, so the difference is 9990-9856.8 = $133.20 which is 13,320 meter moves which is $66,600 coin in multiplied by the 15% is an expected loss of $9990 on the reels and, therefore, a breakeven proposition if you're not getting added value from any other components.

I know I have said this, but I do want to reiterate that there is no world where I would ever assume that I'm only losing 15% on the reels.

All of this to say that most technically playable situations are nowhere near that good, so the meter running higher than expected will result in a loss a very very high percentage of the time. Other low probability hits contribute pretty substantially to the return on these things, mostly hitting the number of Free Games expected and Free Games results being good, for the most part, so even variance is not going to tend to turn a loss into a win if it runs high.

Honestly, given how absurdly high the percentage that you expect to drop to the reels is, and how the probabilities/results are distributed, you kind of need variance to be on your side just to do well enough to drop the percentage that you 'should.' I've seen it where players have dropped 40-60% on the reels over the course of an appreciable number (several thousand) of spins.

You can do as you like, but I wouldn't play around with them just to see how they play, or anything. You only ever want to play one of these if you have a pretty clear advantage because even those situations can go very badly.

I should also note that I'm different from a lot of people in that I barely remember any of my wins, except for a few select UX W2-G's from vulturing and the time that I hit the six-point Fire Bet at Craps...but I remember every single loss on something that I've ever had that had GREAT EV as if it happened five minutes ago.

I think that helps because it makes me very cautious. I also think it hurts me because it makes me very cautious.

Quote: Mission146

Honestly, given how absurdly high the percentage that you expect to drop to the reels is, and how the probabilities/results are distributed, you kind of need variance to be on your side just to do well enough to drop the percentage that you 'should.' I've seen it where players have dropped 40-60% on the reels over the course of an appreciable number (several thousand) of spins.

You can do as you like, but I wouldn't play around with them just to see how they play, or anything. You only ever want to play one of these if you have a pretty clear advantage because even those situations can go very badly.
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I have dropped $5K in an hour. I have been stuck over $30K more than once with essentially zero chance of a winning session. I have been stuck more than $10K on a $5K AGS game twice.

One of the benefits of this sort of must-hit major play is that you will have three spies from various teams watching you for 20 hours straight. If you are lucky, they will not stand right behind you smoking a cigar or try to run you off the play with BS talk or brute intimidation. No, it is not a good idea to have them watch your game while you go to the restroom. Yes, they are hoping you go broke or have a stroke.

My AP play is to hit the major while I am trying to reset the minor.

Quote: Mission146

I should also note that I'm different from a lot of people in that I barely remember any of my wins.
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Maybe you should try riding a casino bus. Nobody on a casino bus ever remembers their losses. The whole bus is full of winners and people who talk loudly about their system.

Quote: Mental

Quote: Mission146

I should also note that I'm different from a lot of people in that I barely remember any of my wins.
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Maybe you should try riding a casino bus. Nobody on a casino bus ever remembers their losses. The whole bus is full of winners and people who talk loudly about their system.
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You know what is really lots of fun when hearing those stories? I tell them that I am with the IRS. Man, the silence is deafening and the excuses......?

tuttigym

Quote: Mental

I have dropped $5K in an hour. I have been stuck over $30K more than once with essentially zero chance of a winning session. I have been stuck more than $10K on a $5K AGS game twice.

One of the benefits of this sort of must-hit major play is that you will have three spies from various teams watching you for 20 hours straight. If you are lucky, they will not stand right behind you smoking a cigar or try to run you off the play with BS talk or brute intimidation. No, it is not a good idea to have them watch your game while you go to the restroom. Yes, they are hoping you go broke or have a stroke.

My AP play is to hit the major while I am trying to reset the minor.
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You always like those! I've had it happen once, but unfortunately, it was not on a 10k Major (not even a W2G Major).

I appreciate you sharing/confirming just how badly these can go because I wouldn't want people dappling in something that carries this level of risk and potential downside based on any sort of guesswork. Guesswork is for quick turnaround vulture plays where the play is often over in fifty or fewer spins and you eventually determine the positive play points and make back any -EV you generated out of sheer volume of good plays.

Anyway, if you look at people who are skilled investors, those folks always want to know what their downside is...and I think that's a good thing to keep in mind with Must-Hit machines. It is very rare that you will ever find a MH play where your upside is greater than your potential downside just because of how awful these things are capable of running.

I never notice any APs at my local casino despite an abundance of must-hits. That is confirmed by the fact that I can almost always find leftover multipliers on the UltimateX machines. I usually only browse 2 or 3 machines to avoid calling attention to what I'm doing. In Vegas, finding an UltimateX multiplier is rare, so I assume finding a winning slot play that hasn't already been seized by an AP is also rare there.

I was playing at a must hit $16,000 two machines side by side.

I was at the one with the positive EV. Betting $200 per spin with 20× freeplay multiplier.

I dropped $35,000 and still didn't trigger the must hit. I got about half back with the Freeplay multiplier and comps that came in the mail but that was my worst run.

$35,000 in three hours at $200 per spin

Here's what REALLY upset me!

I got a bonus round at the same time as the person seated next to me in the other must hit.

My $200 bonus round 5 free spins with possibility of re-triggers got me $1100. Not even a jackpot.

The woman next to me? $5 got her $2000. It just kept re-triggering and getting wilds across.

If I had that spin at $200 I would have won about $80,000.

When she won nearly twice more at $5 than I did at $200 I knew variance was laughing it's hardest at me.

Quote: JackSpade

I never notice any APs at my local casino despite an abundance of must-hits. That is confirmed by the fact that I can almost always find leftover multipliers on the UltimateX machines. I usually only browse 2 or 3 machines to avoid calling attention to what I'm doing. In Vegas, finding an UltimateX multiplier is rare, so I assume finding a winning slot play that hasn't already been seized by an AP is also rare there.
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It's hard to say, but many of the card running teams are going to have MH, 'Spotters,' who are not necessarily AP's themselves. In many cases, people running cards are going to have zero interest in UX vulturing anyway, and even if they did, also might not want to call attention to themselves.

She is a fickle mistress, DarkOz. I'm really glad that these stories of massive losses are being shared! This is the stuff more important for people to fully understand than when something is or is not a play.

On my first trip to Vegas, my friends and I stumbled into a bar/casino called the Aztec. We'd read it had had a few big jackpot wins, and I saw a machine that was sort of near the must-hit by. $500 later, I'd barely moved the meter and decided I should stick to BJ. The bartender kept giving us free drinks so we ended up arguing over who would go home with her. Many tips later, we learned she gave drinks away to anyone gambling.

These narratives make me glad that I am a "recreational" player with no real expectations of the grandioso gigantic win. However, I am looking to win the Mega Ball and splurged on 5 plays for $10. Isn't that a "must win" situation or play?

tuttigym