Sports Puzzle

With permission, I'm posting this question that was asked on another forum. It seems to have stumped everyone so far, including some supposed sports gurus.

I thought it was obvious yes, I would take the bet, but then started thinking perhaps the person posing the question somehow knew the answer was NO.

Not knowing the answer, I would take this bet if it was offered to me. Even if I was wrong and it was -EV, I don't think you would be giving up that much, I think it's more likely to be of significant value.



"It's the NFL. If someone propositioned you to FLAT BETTING (same wager every game) every game every week for the entire season. All bets are made in the same book. And they offered you a 2-point discount on the closing line of every game. By 2-point discount I mean if the line closes at -7 you get the game at -5.

Would you take the bet?

And conversely, if they offered you 2 more points than the closing line would you take it? By 2 more points I mean if the line closes at +7 you get +9."

I would also take it. I can't even imagine why the other side wouldn't.

Assuming you are betting 11 to win 10 I’d take it, but it is likely trivially +EV. If it is an even money bet I’d take it and soon be able to retire.

You need to win 11/21 = 52.4% of games to overcome -110 vig. I’d think a one point or even half point adjustment would put you in a profitable position

I’ve flat bet every NFL game for over five years with a friend (he picks all games one week, I pick the next). I’d estimate an average of 2 or 3 games per week are won/lost by <1.5 points after applying the spread, and there’s a push about every other week. So if a one point adjustment converted a loss to a win on one game per week, that would give me an average week of 9 wins in 16 games, or 56.25%

The pushes alone would make you profitable, even with just a half point adjustment, if they occurred at least once in 21 games