Winning College Basketball Picks

Last year during the college basketball season I went on an incredible streak that only those who bet my games will believe. I easily hit over 80% of all my college basketball plays ATS, averaged about 3 to 4 plays a day. My friend started betting $11 on each pick and by the end of the year while betting roughly 10% of his bankroll he was betting over $100 per game. My other friend wanted me to start posting my picks on his website, which I did only to find that virtually every day I posted my picks not only did I lose, but I lost badly. I still can't figure why, but as soon as I did not post there I was winning like crazy so I just stopped posting.

I use a very simple system that tends to work very well once a sufficient amount of stats have been collected. I started making plays last year shortly after the college bowl games finished. I have nothing to hide concerning the system, but it went 1-0-1 ATS the spread last night.

Here are the rules of the system:
1.) Only play underdogs.
2.) Never play an underdog that has lost or not covered their last 3 games (even good teams can hit a dry spot)
3.) Play underdogs that stats show the line should be more than 3 points difference than the actually line at the books.
4.) Here is how I determine the "line" for the game:

Get a print sheet for NCAAB free from covers.com for the games that day.
Simply average the teams average points per game with their average points per game on the road/home.
Then average the teams average points against per game with their average points against per game on the road/home.
Then average the difference between their stats and the other teams to give you the score of the game and that becomes the line.

**You will find this line to generally be fairly close to actually line. What you are looking for is any major difference. If you find a difference, just make sure that team is not suffering from any major injury or suspension that would justify the line move.

Example for last nights games:

Florida Atlantic vs PPG 68.2 PPG(road) 64.2 = 66pts, PPGA 67.7 PPGA(road) 70.7 = 69 (they are on the road so I will round up)
Siena PPG 71.1 PPG(home) 68.4 = 70pts, PPGA 74.3 PPGA(road) 75.8 = 75
Now Compare: FA 70 Siena 69 Final Score,
Actual Line for the Game: Siena -3. Therefore the play would be on Florida Atlantic +3 (I saw this game at 4 most of the day, but final line was 3)
Final Score Siena 72 FA 69 PUSH or win if you got it at 4.

The other game was UC Davis vs. UCLA. Doing the above analysis had the game as UCLA 69 UC Davis 63, the line UCLA -6.
Actual Line UCLA -16.5
Final Score UCLA 74 UC Davis 67. Easy cover for UC Davis

I have followed this system with favorites and have never been very profitable, but playing dogs has been very profitable.

Let me know what you think.

Tonight's Games, Tuesday December 14

Stats Prediction: Louisville 72 Drexel 65. Predicted Line: Louisville -7.
Actual Line Louisville -14
Play on Drexel

If you didn't catch the Louisville game last night you missed an easy winner as Drexel won 52-46 as a 14pt underdog, you don't find those very often.

There are two games tonight that fit the criteria.

Stats Prediction: Minnesota 72 Akron 66. Predicted Line: Minnesota -6.
Actual Line: Minnesota -14.5
Play on Akron.

Stats Prediction: South Florida 64 Auburn 63. Predicted Line: USF -1
Actual Line: USF -11.5
Play on Auburn.

Good Luck.

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Hope you bet on Oakland to beat Tennessee last night. That was an upset.

Stations casino did not have a line on the game for some reason so wasn't able to bet on the game.

Wednesday Night Results:
1. Minnesota 66 Akron 58. Win on Akron
2. USF 61 Auburn 49. Loss on Auburn. (Auburn missed two free throws with 24 seconds left down 12, but that is gambling. There were some 12s out there, I got 11.5 and never saw a 12, but closing line according to Vegasinsider.com says 12, so maybe you got a push).

Thursday Games:

Stats Prediction: Tulsa 74 Weber State 72. Predicted Line: Tulsa -2.
Actual Line: Tulsa -8
Play on Weber State.

Stats Prediction: Arizona 77 Northern Arizona 69. Predicted Line: Az -8.
Actual Line Arizona -17
Play on Northern Arizona.

Results for Thursday:
1. Tulsa 81 Weber State 79 in OT. Winner on Weber State
2. Arizona 63 NAU 58. Winner on NAU.

Record Since Posting 4-1.

Friday Games:
Stats Prediction Nevada 70 Arizona State 65. Predicted Line: Nevada -5.
Actual Line: Arizona State -4.5
Play on Nevada.

Good Luck.

This is fun, you keep posting winners, and we keep making money. I have a friend in Vegas this weekend. I'm looking forward to your Saturday and Sunday picks, so I can quadruple my money.

Quote: SONBP2

Results for Thursday:
1. Tulsa 81 Weber State 79 in OT. Winner on Weber State
2. Arizona 63 NAU 58. Winner on NAU.

Record Since Posting 4-1.

Friday Games:
Stats Prediction Nevada 70 Arizona State 65. Predicted Line: Nevada -5.
Actual Line: Arizona State -4.5
Play on Nevada.

Good Luck.

Excellent!

Quote: FinsRule

This is fun, you keep posting winners, and we keep making money. I have a friend in Vegas this weekend. I'm looking forward to your Saturday and Sunday picks, so I can quadruple my money.

Thanks for the comments, hopefully we keep winning. I keep telling my friend we are going to go on a bad losing streak cause people don't just keep winning at this rate.

I will post plays for Saturday probably later on Friday night.

Results for Friday December 17th:
Final Arizona State 78 Nevada 75 Win on Nevada.

Record 5-1 ATS.

Will post Saturday plays later tonight.

Plays for Saturday, December 18th

Stats Prediction: Georgia 69 Arkansas State 67. Predicted Line: Georgia -2.
Actual Line: Georgia -13.5
Play on Arkansas State

Stats Prediction: Temple 73 Northern Illinois 65. Predicted Line: Temple -8.
Actual Line: Temple -26
Play on Northern Illinois

Stats Prediction: South Florida 65 James Madison 64. Predicted Line: USF -1.
Actual Line: USF -6
Play on James Madison

Stats Prediction: Detroit 66 Central Michigan 63. Predicted Line: Detroit -3.
Actual Line: Central Michigan -1
Play on Detroit

Stats Prediction: Idaho 65 Montana 64. Predicted Line: Idaho -1.
Actual Line: Montana -5
Play on Idaho

Good Luck.

Quote: SONBP2

Get a print sheet for NCAAB free from covers.com for the games that day.
Simply average the teams average points per game with their average points per game on the road/home.
Then average the teams average points against per game with their average points against per game on the road/home.
Then average the difference between their stats and the other teams to give you the score of the game and that becomes the line.

This seems to be working very well. I'm trying to do it - In covers the first set "Overall" AF-AA is the first average above and the second set of averages comes from "Home/Away" AF-AA. Is that correct? Then these two averages are averaged once more.

What does "average the difference between their stats and the other teams" mean.

For today's match ups I have Arkansas St as 68-67.8 for an average of 67.9 (overall) and 62.3-65.3 (home/away) for an average of 63.8 which gives me an average score of 65.85 (or 66 rounded up as the road team).

I did the same for their opponent Georgia and came up with 70 (rounded down). The difference is 4. Is that the "projected line" or is the projected line 2 (i.e 4/2)? And in this example since Georgia is laying 12.5 either 2 or 4 points it looks like Arkansas St should be the pick.

Did I do this correctly?

I must have missed the earlier post - I see that you do average the two scores difference and indeed Arkasas St is the selection.

Quote: Martin

I must have missed the earlier post - I see that you do average the two scores difference and indeed Arkasas St is the selection.

Martin I do average, but you are confusing what numbers to average if I am reading your post correctly. On covers print sheet there are two sets of scores for each team. Arkansas State: AF-AA and AF-AA Home/Away. What you want to average is AF with AF H/A. So for Arkansas State it is 68 and 62.3 for an average of 65 points for. Meaning they will score an average of 65 points per game. Now average AA with AA H/A, 67.8 and 65.3 and you roughly get 66. Do the same for Georgia. AF 69.6 with 73.7, 72 and AA 68.9 with 69.3, 69. So now you compare Ark State's average points 65 with the number of points Georgia allows 69, for a total of 67. Georgia scores 72 while Ark St gives up 66 for an average of 69.

So the predicted final score is Georgia 69 Ark. St 67. Predicted Liine is Georgia -2.
Actual Line Georgia -12.5.
Therefore play on Arkansas State.

Hope that clears things up.

Thanks for the comments.

When I made the Arkansas State bet this morning the line had already dropped from 13.5 to 12.5 so that is why I have different posted actual lines.

Good Luck today for those following.

Quote: SONBP2

Martin I do average, but you are confusing what numbers to average

Yep, had it all screwed up thanks for your patience.

Update Saturday:

Final Georgia 68 Arkansas State 59. Win on Ark St.

Current Record 6-1.

Update Saturday:

Final Temple 84 Northern Illinois 74. Win on NIU.

Current Record 7-1.

Next plays begin at 4pm PST. With James Madison and Detroit. And the night game at 7pm PST on Idaho.

Good Luck.

Update Saturday:

Final James Madison 66 South Florida 61. Win on JMU. (Outright underdog winner)

Final Detroit 75 Central Michigan 49. Win on Detroit. (Outright underdog winner)

Current Record 9-1.

Final Play for Saturday Idaho +5.5 (that is the number I got about 2 hours ago).

Good Luck.

I am very impressed by your quick published start. Any luck with this for the nba or nfl?

Quote: only1choice

I am very impressed by your quick published start. Any luck with this for the nba or nfl?

I have had a little luck with College Football, but absolutely no luck at all with any other sport and I have tried.

Saturday Update:
Final Montana 64 Idaho 63. Win on Idaho.

A clean sweep of the Saturday card. 5-0 today!!

Overall Record 10-1.

Congrats to all that followed the plays.

I have looked over the card on Sunday and there are NO PLAYS for Sunday. There was either insufficient stats or no underdogs within the spread.

I will be back on Monday if there are any plays.

Quote: SONBP2

Saturday Update:
Final Montana 64 Idaho 63. Win on Idaho.

A clean sweep of the Saturday card. 5-0 today!!

Overall Record 10-1.

Congrats to all that followed the plays.

I have looked over the card on Sunday and there are NO PLAYS for Sunday. There was either insufficient stats or no underdogs within the spread.

I will be back on Monday if there are any plays.

Thank you for the info.
I followed you on Bodog after seeing why you do what you do.
The averages early on in the season can be off with any blowout and the books seem to miss quite a few of them!

Quote: guido111

Thank you for the info.
I followed you on Bodog after seeing why you do what you do.
The averages early on in the season can be off with any blowout and the books seem to miss quite a few of them!

A lot of people play college b-ball for fun and profit - mostly profit. If the books miss a spread by very much the people who follow the game closely have a tendency to jump on it since it represents free money. As a result the books reset the line until people stop jumping on it or maybe begin jumping the other way. Consequently I don't know if the books are "missing" these or not. We'll wait and see how the season develops before we can make a determination that it was simply bad bookmaking.

Rolled through a great weekend of picks and off to a great start to begin the college basketball year.

Current Record 10-1.

Plays for Monday December 20, 2010

Stats Prediction St. John 70 Davidson 66. Predicted Line STJ -4
Actual Line STJ -9
Play on Davidson

Stats Prediction Nevada 74 Portland State 70. Predicted Line Nevada -4
Actual Line -9
Play on Port. St.
**I have some reservations about this game as last game out Nevada finally had eligible a transfer from Duke that will without a doubt be the best player on this team for the next several years. He was crucial in Nevada covering last out. The team stats should change over the next few games and therefore may not be as accurate over the next few games with him in the lineup. I am still listing it as a play as it does fit the system I use, but sometimes you do have to consider somethings that may change the stats.

Thanks for all the comments as well.

I have read some responses about why the system seems to work and I believe it has absolutely nothing do with either bad lines or missed lines by the books. What you have to remember is that books want 50% of the bets to come in on both teams. I believe the books figure their lines in similar fashion to what I have listed at the beginning of this post, but they add another element and that is where is the money is going to come. So for example, Georgia vs. Arkansas State, I predicted the line to be -2 based solely on stats. However the books placed the line at -12.5, obviously they considered that if they placed the line at -2 70-80% of the money would actually come in on Georgia and if Georgia was able to cover they would lose a significant amount of money. So they made the line -12.5 as an attempt to receive an equal amount of money on both teams. What my system takes advantage of is the public's tendency to overplay favorites. The system finds games where the books know a significant amount of money will come in on the favorites thus forcing the books to drive the line higher than it really should be based on the actual statistics of the teams.

SONBP2, you keep picking winners on here and Vegas is going to start moving the line!!!! lol

Keep the winners coming!

Alright, my friend is in Vegas, and I'm finally going to try this out for real. I'm all in on Davidson! Go Davidson blankblanks. What is their team name?

Quote: FinsRule

Alright, my friend is in Vegas, and I'm finally going to try this out for real. I'm all in on Davidson! Go Davidson blankblanks. What is their team name?

Davidson Wildcats, their claim to fame is sharp shooter Stephen Curry.

Quote: SONBP2

Davidson Wildcats, their claim to fame is sharp shooter Stephen Curry.

"Wildcats" is correct, but Stephen Curry left after the 2008-09 season to go pro a year early. That is not a common thing for Davidson players; in fact, most students stick around for all four years. I was one of the odd ones when I left after three to go to Georgia Tech on the 3-2 dual-degree plan.

There are more claims to fame in Davidson basketball history than just Stephen. During my era as a student, the most highly-regarded players were Fred Hetzel and Dick Snyder, both of whom had good NBA careers. The team was ranked as high as #3 nationally back then and was SI pick for #1 one season (the kiss of death). Lefty Driesell was the coach then -- what a character! Terry Holland was on the team when I was a freshman, became coach of the freshman team when he graduated, and took over as head coach when Lefty departed for Maryland. Later Terry served as head coach at UVa, AD at Davidson, AD at UVa, and has come out of retirement to serve currently as AD at East Carolina -- a very good player, coach, and administrator!

The Wildcats have a rather young team this year, with a bunch of freshmen and sophomores who look pretty good. The coach's younger son is a senior guard playing mostly at the point but a pretty good 3-point shooter. They have had an up-and-down season so far, getting the freshmen working into the system.

I have season tickets for the home games but will be watching tonight's game on the TV.

All I got to say is sign me up. What a start! I hope you are making all these bets. I am rooting for you. It is a pleasure to hear of someone who has the balls not just by giving the winners, but spelling out the method.

Hats off to you!

Quote: only1choice

All I got to say is sign me up. What a start! I hope you are making all these bets. I am rooting for you. It is a pleasure to hear of someone who has the balls not just by giving the winners, but spelling out the method.

Hats off to you!

Yes I am betting all these picks. A guy I work with started betting my bball picks last year and was betting about $100 after starting with $11 bets. It was a great year, hopefully that will continue this year.

I wasn't implying Mr. Curry plays there now, but he was one of the best College shooters I have ever seen. Lights out after half-court. And the show he put on at Ford Field during March Madness was one for the ages. I don't know that he will have a long NBA career, but he still can shoot it with the best of them.

If any of you live in Vegas and want to watch some of the games sometimes let me know. I am primarily at Red Rock or Santa Fe.

Update for Monday December 20

Final STJ 62 Davidson 57. Winner on Davidson.

Need some help on the late game, but you never know.

Congrats on all who were on board!

Final

Portland State 73
Nevada 79

Portland State wins ATS

Quote: SONBP2

...Final STJ 62 Davidson 57. Winner on Davidson...

It's a great "winner" for those of you wagering with points. It's a bummer loss for Wildcat fans. :-(

Quote: minnesotajoe

Final

Portland State 73
Nevada 79

Portland State wins ATS

Yes. Another Win with Portland State running the record to 12-1 ATS.

Will see you tomorrow to hopefully continue the streak.

Doc, yes Davidson should have won not sure what happened down the stretch.

Quote: SONBP2

Yes. Another Win with Portland State running the record to 12-1 ATS.

Will see you tomorrow to hopefully continue the streak.

Doc, yes Davidson should have won not sure what happened down the stretch.

Congrats to you.
I bet with you on the last game.
Yes, underdogs can make for good betting opportunities.
Thank you for also sharing your knowledge.

A few years ago I was in a handicapping contest in the NFL and pretty much used that strategy, and it did TERRIBLY.

Quote: Wizard

A few years ago I was in a handicapping contest in the NFL and pretty much used that strategy, and it did TERRIBLY.

I agree. This is system is terrible in the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL. I have had success in College Football, specifically during the college bowl season and obviously in College Basketball.

Plays for Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Stats Prediction UNLV 69 Kansas St 65. Predicted Line UNLV -4
Actual Line KSt -3.5
Play on UNLV

Stats Prediction Fresno State 66 Pacific 62. Predicted Line Fresno State -4
Actual Line Pacific -1
Play on Fresno State

Good Luck!

I have been following your picks with great anticipation. I was planning on using your formula but you have been kind enough to do homework for us. I am very excited about this and hope it is not a flash in the pan strategy. If you don't mind me asking how did you think of this method.? How long have you been doing this? What is your normal win pct?

Quote: only1choice

I have been following your picks with great anticipation. I was planning on using your formula but you have been kind enough to do homework for us. I am very excited about this and hope it is not a flash in the pan strategy. If you don't mind me asking how did you think of this method.? How long have you been doing this? What is your normal win pct?

To be completely honest, a guy, who I thought was homeless, showed me this system last year just prior to the college bowl season. I used the formula and hit about 70% of the bowl games. However, this guy never made any money using the system because he primarily played between 7-12 team parlays and would always lose one or two games. I was intelligent to know that if I could consistently hit 70% I could easily start small and make individual bets and increase the bankroll over time. I applied the system to college basketball right around the same time and for the year easily hit 80% of all bets. Generally I lost 1 or 2 days a week, betting around 2-3 games a day, just to be clear I did count it as a losing day if I went 1-1 because of the loss of the vig. There were many days we went 1-0 or 2-0 and that adds up quickly as you have seen.

I don't expect to win everyday, but this strategy continues to work even though at times I don't even really like the picks. Such as the Nevada game last night, but I keep my emotions out of it and bet the numbers. It is really not that scientific of a formula and obviously I am not reinventing the wheel here. The only time this system seemed to struggle was during the NCAA tourney, roughly hit about 55%.

Hopefully that helps.

College Football for December 21, 2010:

Stats Prediction: Louisville 27 So. Miss 27. Predicted Line PK
Actual Line: Louisville -2.5
Play on So. Miss

This is the first game of the Bowl Season to fit the formula. FYI, all three favorites have won and covered the first three bowl games this year. So maybe a dog is due to shine.

Good Luck.

Results for Tuesday:
UNLV 63 Kansas State 59. Winner on UNLV
Pacific 65 Fresno State 55. Loser on Fresno State

Current College Basketball Record 13-2.

Will be back on Wednesday morning with College Basketball Picks. Thanks for following.

College Football

Louisville 31 So. Miss 28. Loser on So. Miss.

College Bowl Record 0-1.

College Basketball Plays for Wednesday, December 22

Stats Prediction Syracuse 68 Drexel 62. Predicted Line Syracuse -6
Actual Line Syracuse -13
Play on Drexel

Stats Prediction Detroit 66 Bradley 64. Predicted Line Detroit -2
Actual Line Bradley -1
Play on Detroit

Stats Prediction So. Illinois 74 No. Illinois 71. Predicted Line So. Ill -3
Actual Line So. Illinois -13
Play on No. Illinois

Stats Prediction Boise State 70 Portland 67. Predicted Line Boise State -3
Actual Line Portland -3
Play on Boise State

Stats Prediction Miami 68 Rice 68. Predicted Line PK
Actual Line Miami -9
Play on Rice.
**This game is slated for 12PST

Good Luck

Wednesday Update:

Final Miami 73 Rice 67. Win on Rice.

Current Record 14-2.

Other games are later on Wednesday night.

Quote: SONBP2

Wednesday Update:

Final Miami 73 Rice 67. Win on Rice.

Current Record 14-2.

Other games are later on Wednesday night.

Thanks for the update!
I almost missed that game until I read your post on the early start.

Again, thank you for sharing your hard work!

Wednesday Results:

2. Syracuse 93 Drexel 65 Loser on Drexel
3. Bradley 73 Detroit 65 Loser on Detroit
4. Southern Ill 61 Norther Ill 49 Winner on NIU
5. Portland State 88 Boise Statee 79 Loser on Boise St

Overall Record 15-5


Games for Thursday December 23:

Stats Prediction Virginia Tech 67 St. Bonnie 65. Predicted Line VT -2
Actual Line VT -9.5
Play on St. Bonnie

Stats Prediction Memphis 74 Georgetown 70. Predicted Line Memphis -4
Actual Line Georgetown -4
Play on Memphis

Stats Prediction UCLA 72 UC Irvine 68. Predicted Line UCLA -4
Actual Line UCLA -15
Play on UC Irvine

Stats Prediction Miami 70 Akron 69. Predicted Line Miami -1
Actual Line Miami -7.5
Play on Akron

Good Luck.

Results for Thursday, December 23

Miami 69 Akron 61 Loss by the hook on Akron
Georgetown 86 Memphis 69 Loss on Memphis
Virginia Tech 76 St. Bonnie 68 Win on St. Bonnie
UCLA 74 UC Irvine 73 Win on UC Irvine

Current 17-7

Plays for Friday, December 24

Stats Prediction Northeastern 74 Texas State 72. Predicted Line Northeaster -2
Actual Line Northeastern -7.5
Play on Texas State

**There are no games on Saturday December 25, so I will be back with posts on the 26th if there are any games at that time.

Good Luck

Quote: SONBP2

Results for Thursday, December 23

Miami 69 Akron 61 Loss by the hook on Akron
Georgetown 86 Memphis 69 Loss on Memphis
Virginia Tech 76 St. Bonnie 68 Win on St. Bonnie
UCLA 74 UC Irvine 73 Win on UC Irvine

Current 17-7

I knew eventually the bubble would burst, however I am rooting hard that the results will level off at a percentage that will be profitable.