100xOdds
• Posts: 4442
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February 16th, 2022 at 7:34:22 AM permalink

1) 3-card poker where casinos held 31.53 percent

2) Roulette @ 19.87% hold
wait.. How? Thought double zero Roulette was a 5% game?

3) Craps @ 15.37%

4) BJ @ 14.1% profit
even with 6:5 bj, how is it that high?

5) Penny slots @ 9.85%
win on all slots was up 0.25 percent and on tables, up 0.65 percent. (The slot win percentage has decreased only three times in the past 25 years.)

So, if you’re a believer that slot machines are getting a little “tighter,” you’d be right, although with such a low percentage increase and the high volume of slot revenue, the change should be imperceptible to the average player.

6) quarter slots, from which casinos kept 8.04 percent

7) Lowest slot holds:
- The lowest casino win percentage among slot machine denominations — and thus the highest win percentage for players — is for nickel slots. Casinos collected 5.31 percent of the money that went into the machines with \$42.4 million brought in from 1,035 nickel slot machines statewide.

- Other good options are \$5 slots, which casinos kept 5.48 percent of coin in, and \$25 slots, 5.71 percent. There are just 721 \$5 slots statewide and 174 of the \$25 denomination.

8) What might be the best bet for the player?
The good, old sportsbook, where casinos kept 5.46 percent
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6546
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
February 16th, 2022 at 12:36:11 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

2) Roulette @ 19.87% hold
wait.. How? Thought double zero Roulette was a 5% game?

4) BJ @ 14.1% profit
even with 6:5 bj, how is it that high?

Here's one possibility:
Suppose you play roulette, and you play \$10 on red; you continue to play until you are \$50 behind.
If, after 25 spins, 10 are red and 15 are not, you bet \$250 and lost \$50 - that's 20%.
A lot of people "just don't know when to stop."

Click Here for links to the monthly, quarterly, and annual reports for each month going back to the start of 2004. Note that, in earlier reports, Megabucks slots were counted differently from other dollar slots.
Dieter
• Posts: 5794
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
February 16th, 2022 at 1:00:26 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

2) Roulette @ 19.87% hold
wait.. How? Thought double zero Roulette was a 5% game?

It would not surprise me if the way table games revenue is calculated combines with some people's habit of dropping their last few chips from another table on black to see what happens (rather than redeeming them at the cage) to distort the numbers.
May the cards fall in your favor.
unJon
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February 16th, 2022 at 1:13:42 PM permalink
Isn’t everyone mixing up hold and house edge? Two different things.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
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Joined: Jun 22, 2011
February 16th, 2022 at 2:34:27 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Isn’t everyone mixing up hold and house edge? Two different things.

Yes, and in a number of cases, there is a legitimate reason for the difference - in VP, for example, house edge is based on perfect play.

However, I think the OP was mainly interested in how roulette, a game where pretty much every bet has only about a 5% house edge, ended up with a much higher hold.
unJon
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February 16th, 2022 at 3:13:26 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: unJon

Isn’t everyone mixing up hold and house edge? Two different things.

Yes, and in a number of cases, there is a legitimate reason for the difference - in VP, for example, house edge is based on perfect play.

However, I think the OP was mainly interested in how roulette, a game where pretty much every bet has only about a 5% house edge, ended up with a much higher hold.

That’s just a function of turnover.

Buy in for \$1,000 and make \$100 even money bets. Use round number of 5% house edge. Player on average loses \$200 for 20% hold, therefore on average the player makes \$200/\$5 = 40 wagers.

Nothing more needed to explain 5% house edge and 20% hold.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6546
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
February 16th, 2022 at 3:19:23 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Buy in for \$1,000 and make \$100 even money bets. Use round number of 5% house edge. Player on average loses \$200 for 20% hold, therefore on average the player makes \$200/\$5 = 40 wagers.

Nothing more needed to explain 5% house edge and 20% hold.

Got it. I was misunderstanding where the "win %" number came from. I thought it was total amount taken in (i.e. lost by the players) divided by total amount bet.
teddys
• Posts: 5529
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
February 17th, 2022 at 9:33:32 AM permalink
Churn.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Vegasrider
• Posts: 963
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
February 17th, 2022 at 1:12:07 PM permalink
Sportsbook led the way for the largest hold, almost 40% . The parlay cards!
Vegasrider
• Posts: 963
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
February 17th, 2022 at 1:34:34 PM permalink
Sportsbook led the way for the largest hold, almost 40% . The parlay cards!
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
February 17th, 2022 at 5:03:54 PM permalink
I agree with what unJon said here

Also, most people "turnover their buy in *^* " multiple times over, so that is the main reason why the average hold is bigger than the “average player “ house edge for casino games (table games, slots, etc).

*^*: I recently wrote a reply to a post that mentioned "hold" here

----
Longer response below:

Quote: 100xOdds

(snip)
4) BJ @ 14.1% profit
even with 6:5 bj, how is it that high?
(snip)

For BJ, you would divide that figure (14.1% profit) by about 7 (somewhere between 5 and 10) to get a "profit on turnover^^^ " estimate for the casinos' BJ tables.

^^^: From the casinos' POV, the profit on turnover figure would probably be very close to the basic strategy house edge + the "extra profit" from "average player mistakes*** ".

***: I vaguely remember (figures from many many years ago) that the "average BJ player" costs themself about 1.5% (or ~2% ?) in EV, compared to a "basic strategy player".

Also, where it says "What might be the best bet for the player? The good, old sportsbook, where casinos kept 5.46 percent of money wagered in 2021.", is misleading IMO, because "hold### " and "wagered" are gambling terms with different meanings.

###: I may be wrong, but my guess is it was probably harder for Casinos and /or the "Tax man" to estimate "profit on turnover" in the past, so they just used the "hold" method instead and didn't bother changing it when the "profit on turnover" method may have become a viable option.

Lastly, I am guessing the Casinos' have to report that way for "slots/table game tax purposes", because in the link/article you posted it says "The amount of money held either at a table or by the slot is counted as gross gaming revenue for the casino, and that’s the amount that is taxed by the state and funneled to the general fund."
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 17, 2022