Blackjack variance
For someone playing for a living, this variance, these sometimes massive swings, and negative runs that can last weeks and months, and learning to accept and deal with this variance is one of the hardest lessons to learn. All the books and other players on forums and in person telling you about it can't prepare you for when it occurs. It is something you have to go through several times and come out the other side, to be able to process.
So, I don't like too talk to much about my younger brother and his journey, but he is going throught that right now for the first time. In the 5 years (I think it is 5 years, maybe 4) that he has been making a living playing blackjack, he has finished at or above expectation every year. Any kind of negative variance or swing has been very short and mild. It is easy to play, and win and think you are doing great, when the cards just keep falling right and you keep winning.
So this year, he is underperforming expectation for the first time, currently just about half of expectation for his amount of play. And for the first time, I see frustration setting in. He is staring to wonder if he is being cheated or if the casinos have somehow done something different post-covid effecting his results. I try to assure him, no, it is just variance...keep fighting and it will all smooth out at some point.
I don't want to say I have been waiting for this, because that sounds cruel and I want nothing but the best for him, but, I sort of have been waiting for this. :/ It is something every card counter has to go through a couple times to progress.
Here's hoping the cards land his way.
Quote: mosesWith todays technology and products available shouldnt one have a solid understanding of Variance?
Software DOES provide a solid understanding of variance. Run some simulations for a 1-16 spread and see the wide range of results within 3 standard deviations that are "normal".
Any large spread is going to result in big variance and swings. That is exactly why a large bankroll is needed, plus the ability to mentally handle such swings.
AND the above is about a set spread. Many of us mix and match spreads and max bets. I play games with a max bet of $300, $400, $800. This increases and invited even larger variance and swings. Can't even be measured by the software you are referencing.
The reason for these different spreads and max bets is about tolerance levels and playing as high of stakes that is tolerated at each location, to maximize win rate. BUT, the downside is that increased variance from an already volitale, high variance situation.
Quote: kewljSoftware DOES provide a solid understanding of variance. Run some simulations for a 1-16 spread and see the wide range of results within 3 standard deviations that are "normal".
Any large spread is going to result in big variance and swings. That is exactly why a large bankroll is needed, plus the ability to mentally handle such swings.
AND the above is about a set spread. Many of us mix and match spreads and max bets. I play games with a max bet of $300, $400, $800. This increases and invited even larger variance and swings. Can't even be measured by the software you are referencing.
The reason for these different spreads and max bets is about tolerance levels and playing as high of stakes that is tolerated at each location, to maximize win rate. BUT, the downside is that increased variance from an already volitale, high variance situation.
I think most card counters underestimate the variance and werent prepared financially or psychologically. Even though I had a bankroll. I wasnt prepared mentally. I had only gambled a few times at min bet 25 before i started counting.
Quote: jjjooogggI think most card counters underestimate the variance and werent prepared financially or psychologically. Even though I had a bankroll. I wasnt prepared mentally. I had only gambled a few times at min bet before i started counting.
I would agree. Playing underfunded is one if not the single bigget mistakes. Related to that is the mental aspect you mentioned. Newer players that get into a high count (strong advantage) and throw out their big bets only to lose several hands, quickly lose the will to keep throwing out that big wager.
Quote: mosesWith todays technology and products available shouldnt one have a solid understanding of Variance?
I met one of the best card counters doing it for a long time. His wife couldnt handle the swings. So they found another job. And he had to stay home with the kids. If his wife wanted to count. They would have made it work.
Quote: jjjooogggI met one of the best card counters doing it for a long time. His wife couldnt handle the swings. So they found another job. And he had to stay home with the kids. If his wife wanted count. They would have made it work.
You touched on the phsycology. I have some millionaire friends that flip out over a $10 parlay. It's right or wrong and they have to face the fact they were wrong.
Verite helps a person come to the realization of variance. You can see it with sims. But you have to feel it. The one person one cant lie to is themself.
Variance isnt so much in the cards as it is in you. If it were easy, you would have to wait in line to play.
Play out 10k hands on Verite with HiLO. Then 10k the new way.
EXACTLY the way you play in the casino. Only you can determine your personal level of tolerance.
Point is you will learn more about yourself in 20 days than 20 weeks of casino play.
Quote: mosesTry this KJ little bro. Drop the 2. add a point to the 5. A very simple Level 2 count. Run your sim comparisons with CV Data as it is closer to your style of short session play. You can also determine the Advantage point to bet two hands instrad of one.
Variance isnt so much in the cards as it is in you. If it were easy, you would have to wait in line to play.
Play out 10k hands on Verite with HiLO. Then 10k the new way.
EXACTLY the way you play in the casino. Only you can determine your personal level of tolerance.
Point is you will learn more about yourself in 20 days than 20 weeks of casino play.
We both have that software. I didn’t get around to using it
Quote: jjjooogggWe both have that software. I didn’t get around to using it
It's like my blackjack bible. I've been accused of having an affair. Nobody studies blackjack that much. 😄
Quote: mosesTry this KJ little bro. Drop the 2. add a point to the 5. A very simple Level 2 count. Run your sim comparisons with CV Data as it is closer to your style of short session play. You can also determine the Advantage point to bet two hands instrad of one.
Moses, did you forget, I am a proponet of hi-lo and simplicity in general. I think I have done pretty well with that philosophy over the years. That is the KJ way and that is what I taught my brother and he has done pretty well in his 4 or 5 years. So no offense, but I am not looking for "a very simple level 2 count".
Now, are you aware that a level 2 count and a level 1 count identify the same true count something like 96% of the time in a shoe game, which is what we mostly play. And the times they don't match up it is one identifying a TC of +3, while the other is TC+4. It is pretty minor. You never have a situation where a level 2 count would identify some advantageous situation, while hi-lo or a level 1 identifies a nuetral situation. There just is never THAT kind of discrepency. Double deck game and the single deck games you play, yeah it makes more of a difference.
So if a player is running say 20k behind expectation for a period of time, say a number of months or even a year, a level 2 count would have made virtually no difference. A player running significantly under expectation, his count has identified virtually the same max bet situations as another count would have, but he is in a period that he just is not winning his fair share of max bets over that period of time. It happens all the time. A level 2 count player would have identified almost all the same counts and still be under performing almost identically.
In addition, there is another reason, I am a level 1 count proponet. There are thing a player can do with a level one count that he can NOT do with a level 2. It has to do with getting only a glance at the cards on the table, for a fraction, and I mean FRACTION of a second. I will give you this hint: Pips and paint.
Quote: mosesI wasnt the one complaining about variance.
No one was "complaining" about variance. I was explaining it.
My brother has finished above expection each of his 4 years so far. That is POSITIVE variance. This year negative variance so far.
Last year, I was 60 some k, below expectaion. That was very bad negative variance. This year I am running about 12k above at the moment. That is positive variance.
Variance is a part of blackjack card counting and especially with shoe games. There is no way to tamp it down. If a player uses a big bet spread, he is likely to experience variance one way or the other, depending on if he is hitting his fair share or not of the biggest bets. It is that simple.
So I said there is no way to tamp it down. But there is. My first couple years of playing atlantic city, I didn't experience that much variance. I was playing a very small spread. A small spread will smooth out variance some, but at the cots of win rate. You will win less, but it will be a smoother ride.
So players that don't really have the bankroll necessary, will play a smaller spread and experience less variance. (also smaller win rate). Once a player acquires the bankroll necessary, he becomes more interested in win rate, and plays a higher spread, and along with that comes increased variance.
Quote: kewlj
So I said there is no way to tamp it down. But there is. My first couple years of playing atlantic city, I didn't experience that much variance. I was playing a very small spread. A small spread will smooth out variance some, but at the cots of win rate. You will win less, but it will be a smoother ride.
So players that don't really have the bankroll necessary, will play a smaller spread and experience less variance. (also smaller win rate). Once a player acquires the bankroll necessary, he becomes more interested in win rate, and plays a higher spread, and along with that comes increased variance.
KJ, this is a good time to perfectly tie in some subject matter that you recently spoke about. I am not sure which site this occurred at. That subject had to do with how to achieve longevity. Where you stated that the only way to achieve this is by playing very short sessions. Knowing that line was rather limited where I felt it needed further clarification, but dismissed the thought thinking that you were only referring to full-time play as from your perspective. We already know that certain areas of the country are not conducive for only playing short sessions and I can assure you that one can obtain some longevity outside of Las Vegas while also being successful and welcomed back while playing part-time while also not being limited to only playing short sessions. That is not easy to accomplish and back offs will and still do take place. Now I am not about to discuss my business but I will say it has plenty to do with what Moses firmly believes in and that is learning what is accepted and not overstepping your bounds.
Then again, I just do a session, win and leave.
There are times it doesn't work out but these are far outweighed by the times it does.
Quote: MDawgWhen I play blackjack my spread is all the way to table max and I win most of the big bets
There are times it doesn't work out but these are far outweighed by the times it does.
this all goes without saying
everybody here already knew that if you played blackjack that you would win the vast majority of your big bets
just as you do in bacc
and everybody already knew you would go to table max every time
but it's real enjoyable for me and I would guess everybody here to hear it again
personally, I've never before heard of another gambler who had such fantastical success as you have
it really is quite amazing
.
But he never can resist.Quote: lilredroosterthis all goes without saying
New members, visitors and passers by might even believe it all, join the fan club and try to emulate the great one.Quote:But it's real enjoyable for me and I would guess everybody here to hear it again
There was the fictional character, James Bond, and Lou Costello, who did pretty good at rouletteQuote:personally, I've never before heard of another gambler who had such fantastical success as you have
https://youtu.be/rN-oOeUKcO4
Other adjectives are available.Quote:
it really is quite amazing
Quote: lilredrooster.....it really is quite amazing
Quote: OnceDear
Other adjectives are available.
it's just one more day in the life of a legend
mercilessly punishing those casinos that are foolish enough to deal cards to him
a legend in his own mind
.
Which would be: that I am the only WOV member to have been witnessed making those large bets and winning. Indeed, the entire table clapped for me after I pulled it off. Then again, given that I claim to do something, and then do it while witnessed, well, that would prove nothing I suppose. Or everything.
Anyway, that's the way I play blackjack, man. Right on topic on the way I do things. You want to knock yourselves out commenting on it further, without making any kind of substantive contribution to this thread, fine.
Quote: OnceDearBut he never can resist.New members, visitors and passers by might even believe it all, join the fan club and try to emulate the great one.
Exactly OnceDear. And I STRONGLY OBJECT to his jumping into this thread with more of his "unbelievable" stories that he would like visitors, passers and most disturbing to me, newer players to believe.
Mdawg's threads were first moved to the losing betting system section for a reason. And then management decided that wasn't enough and further "hide" his threads from public view in an effort to protect those very groups mentioned
So now he is allowed to just jump into a legitimate blackjack thread, a thread started by me and about the actual experiences of my brother, a real blackjack card counting AP, and continue with his fantastical claims of always winning and betting table minimum to table max?
Come on this isn't right. WoV was at one time and is supposed to still be a somewhat serious gambling forum. There has got to be a limit to this guy or he should be limited where he can post his "stories".
Now he is saying that I do not jump from table min to table max? That is exactly what I do.
Watch it.
Instead of, "Oh man he couldn't be doing that" why not just say, hey it's risky to jump to table limit based on just the count. But, I'm doing more than just counting and I said so.
Quote: kewlj<snip>Now, are you aware that a level 2 count and a level 1 count identify the same true count something like 96% of the time in a shoe game, which is what we mostly play. And the times they don't match up it is one identifying a TC of +3, while the other is TC+4. It is pretty minor. You never have a situation where a level 2 count would identify some advantageous situation, while hi-lo or a level 1 identifies a nuetral situation.<snip>
kewlj,
A little over four years ago I posted (over at Norm's site) a method to compare two different counts side-by-side using Excel: see the last post on this page:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?38071-How-to-compare-plays-with-CVCX
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Quote: MDawgSee the problem I have with the comments above is - that they are not substantive. They bring nothing to the table, other than wasting time stating "I don't believe the poster."
Instead of, "Oh man he couldn't be doing that" why not just say, hey it's risky to jump to table limit based on just the count. But, I'm doing more than just counting and I said so.
Hijacking.
14 days.
Quote: MDawgI already challenged this one to a blackjack tournament of sorts - we meet at a table, and see who wins more. He declined.
I object to this nonsense too. I am a professional blackjack player. I play and make a living against the casinos of Las vegas and other areas (mostly Vegas). I am not interested in some sort of short term peeing contest against some person on an internet forum, making all kind of rediculous claims for the sake of building and stroking ego.
It is always the same people that want to engage in these contests, which always prove nothing because for 1), they are short term play when something like winning blackjack play (or even winning baccarat play) is a long term proposition and 2) often these silly wagers are set up in a way that has no resemblence to how actually winning play is done.
You might as well be betting that you can hit black 2 out of 3 spins on roulette as a way to prove a winning roulete system.
Please don't involve me with these nonsencical "challenges" again.
Quote: DieterHijacking.
14 days.
While I appreciate this action, this is not the solution to THIS situation. Something more need be done.
Don't want to tell anyone how to do their "job", but might I suggest the moderator crew, get together and come to a better solution. My suggestion would be somehow restricting this member from making his comments of "always winning" and other unrealistic comments (like table minimum to table max spreads) in some of the legitimate gambling and AP discussions.
Quote: DogHandkewlj,
A little over four years ago I posted (over at Norm's site) a method to compare two different counts side-by-side using Excel: see the last post on this page:
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/showthread.php?38071-How-to-compare-plays-with-CVCX
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Dog hand, as you know, I am restricted at that site, and thus unable to log on to view your links to pictures and charts.
No need to email them to me, as I would probably have so many question, you would still need to spend time explaining.
What I will request is your brief expert synopsis. Will a level 1 and level 2 count identify most of the same situations and especially in regards to 6 and 8 deck shoe games? In single deck and double deck, I would assume count can matter a little more.
Quote: BoSoxKJ, this is a good time to perfectly tie in some subject matter that you recently spoke about. I am not sure which site this occurred at. That subject had to do with how to achieve longevity. Where you stated that the only way to achieve this is by playing very short sessions. Knowing that line was rather limited where I felt it needed further clarification, but dismissed the thought thinking that you were only referring to full-time play as from your perspective. We already know that certain areas of the country are not conducive for only playing short sessions and I can assure you that one can obtain some longevity outside of Las Vegas while also being successful and welcomed back while playing part-time while also not being limited to only playing short sessions. That is not easy to accomplish and back offs will and still do take place. Now I am not about to discuss my business but I will say it has plenty to do with what Moses firmly believes in and that is learning what is accepted and not overstepping your bounds.
Bosox, I am a fulltime player and I play (mostly) Las Vegas. Do I really need a disclaimer that says that is what my experiences and comments are in relation to?
I am specifically talking about a fulltime player, who plays regulary, almost everyday, and plays a home base location like Las Vegas and what is needed to acheive longevity.
Obviously part-time players have different logistics and should figure a game plan for what works for them.
Likewise, players that don't have the situation I have with many games in close proximity will need to have a plan of attack that works for their situation. I mean no one is going to drive an hour or 90 minutes to a casino, play a 15 minute session and walk out the door heading to the next location, as I am able to do. When I am traveling and in different situations, even I adjust my plan to meet those situations.
Everyone needs to figure out what works for them and their specific situation. I am simply sharing what works for me and my situation.
And I think the places I have shared that were a thread about a player possibly relocating to LAS VEGAS and a discussion elsewhere about my play in Las Vegas, so I don't know why you would think I need to issue some sort of disclaimer that my comments might not apply to other players in other situations.
Quote: BoSoxThat is not easy to accomplish and back offs will and still do take place. Now I am not about to discuss my business but I will say it has plenty to do with what Moses firmly believes in and that is learning what is accepted and not overstepping your bounds.
Casino Tolerance?
But it really wasn't necessary.😉 All a person needs is to live in Vegas, have a large bankroll, and a strong stomach. 😨 No?
The facts are that 1.) I use Qfit products myself very regulary in comparing games and figuring my EV for different games and conditions.
2.) That I consider myself a student of Don Schlesinger. Do you know what the illustrious 18 was all about? It was about simplicity. Don was saying these 18 index plays captures 90% of the gain of using 100's of index plays. (diminishing returns). Furthermore, in recent years Don has stated, that while he plays a level 2 count RPC and uses 100+ index plays, if he were starting out today, with what he now knows and the games avallble today, he would learn and play a level 1 count like hi-lo and only use 18 index plays. You CAN'T get a better testamonial from an expert who knows, of what is important and works for today's games.
3.) I use primarily CBJN, which by the way is Stanford Wong's list of blackjack conditions, updated monthly, NOT LVBear's. Al Rogers only administers it, previously for Wong and now for the same company that owns this forum, who now owns BJ21. I also periodically look at Wizards listing when it used to be updated regularly just to see if there was anything I am missing. Frankly, since both lists are owned by the same company, I am surprised they have not been combined. But keep in mind the big difference, CBJN, has paid reporters that update conditions monthly. You pay a fee, but you pay that fee for acurate information and regular updates.
I work at what I do, and resent the dismissing and minimalizing of it to large bankroll and strong stomach.
Variance is a part of 6 and 8 deck shoe games and that is what Las Vegas is. You simply have never understood that because you don't play Las vegas, nor shoe games. There are plenty of other real players that share experiences of dealing with that variance, including a former member here, who is often critisized, even by me, about his rant's of losing and casinos cheating him. But the fact is he is sharing that very experience of variance....a bit over the top in my opinion , but that is what he is doing.
Quote: kewljBosox, I am a fulltime player and I play (mostly) Las Vegas. Do I really need a disclaimer that says that is what my experiences and comments are in relation to?
I am specifically talking about a fulltime player, who plays regulary, almost everyday, and plays a home base location like Las Vegas and what is needed to acheive longevity.
Obviously part-time players have different logistics and should figure a game plan for what works for them.
Likewise, players that don't have the situation I have with many games in close proximity will need to have a plan of attack that works for their situation. I mean no one is going to drive an hour or 90 minutes to a casino, play a 15 minute session and walk out the door heading to the next location, as I am able to do. When I am traveling and in different situations, even I adjust my plan to meet those situations.
Everyone needs to figure out what works for them and their specific situation. I am simply sharing what works for me and my situation.
And I think the places I have shared that were a thread about a player possibly relocating to LAS VEGAS and a discussion elsewhere about my play in Las Vegas, so I don't know why you would think I need to issue some sort of disclaimer that my comments might not apply to other players in other situations.
The fact remains in one recent post you mentioned that the only way to achieve longevity is by playing short sessions. Sometimes you should be more specific about certain blackjack topics that does not actually pertain to your own situation. Thank you.
Quote: BoSoxThe fact remains in one recent post you mentioned that the only way to achieve longevity is by playing short sessions. Sometimes you should be more specific about certain blackjack topics that does not actually pertain to your own situation. Thank you.
This is silly critisism, BoSox. I am speaking of my own experiences based on my situation. I am quite sure everyone recognises that.
Quote: mosesCasino Tolerance?
Deception for starters by maintaining a very good act on numerous fronts.
But there is a whole group of players my age, or a little older that started playing about the same time, early 2000's. And these conditions are all we have ever known. I learned to play the game in Atlantic City in the early 2000's, even WORSE conditions than I play today. So those of us that these conditions are all we have ever known, learned to play and beat these conditions. And a good part of that is learning to deal with the variance involved.
Now YOU and your experience of playing the last remaining single deck games remaining are almost identical to these players from the 80's and 90's. Now that your single deck games are drying up or diminishing, which was inevitable, you are looking 6 and 8 deck shoe games, and having the same response as the guys from the 80's and 90's.
NO< it is NOT what you are used to. That is life. If you want to learn to play and win against these games, you have to make some adjustments and one of those big adjustments will be dealing with variance that is far different than you are used to.
You can adjust or you can sit around complaining and missing the gold old days, but just stop with the snide little remarks attempting to discredit me, because I play a game and win playing a game, you don't understand and are not used to.
Stop.
Rule 12 violation.
Squabbling.
What has been simply offered as a suggestion for improvement to ones game from the hard work of others and tools offered?
2 or 14?😊😉
Quote: moses.
Rule 12 violation.
Squabbling.
I don't know what rule 12 is, nor do I care to look.
But I think we are having a reasonable discussion about blackjack card counting.
If "squabbling" is the term, couldn't that be said of almost any thread on this forum? lol.
Quote: kewljI don't know what rule 12 is, nor do I care to look.
That's my point. You refuse to do research. You read one line in a blackjack book and deem your the Holy Grail of blackjack.
Rule 12 means OnceDear is whizzed off.😎
Quote: mosesThat's my point. You refuse to do research. You read one line in a blackjack book and deem your the Holy Grail of blackjack.
Rule 12 means OnceDear is whizzed off.😎
WARNING: Moses you are one inch away from another suspension for insulting kewlj.
Rule 12: No bullying/trolling: Members are expected to act like ladies and gentlemen. Members may not be overly divisive or abusive to another member. This includes starting a thread only the for purpose of attacking another member. (Added 2/24/2012). This also includes threats against another member. (added 9/3/12)
kewlj and moses - you both need to stop the sniping and quarreling! I would advise you to stop talking to each other and act like the intelligent adults that you are.
Quote: mosesThat's my point. You refuse to do research. You read one line in a blackjack book and deem your the Holy Grail of blackjack.
No response even needed.
I also only used Hi/Lo when I was playing
my feeling was that counting can be tiring
I was able to put in about 14 hours in a day - I only played one day a week
but I played every single week
my feeling was that if I tried a complex count I would get more tired
and wouldn't be able to play nearly as long
.
