Variance& Luck

Quote: Mission146

They aren't the same thing because the first one has a clear definition and the second one means whatever the hell the speaker wants it to mean. In the case of this particular speaker, it's just a word people use when they mean variance.

Any other uses of, "Luck," tend to have some sort of metaphysical element.

Please read before voting! Mission146 claims it's possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing. I claim this is not possible in any context of the word. Please think it over and discuss in the comments below what your opinions are before voting. The point of this thread is to gauge WoV's game design knowledge, I'm hoping the forum is smart enough not to cast judgement until tomorrow when I post a huge hint why Mission146 can not be correct in this instance. It's a test so don't fail me.

I played Ouija Dice and it said the stickman had COVID-19.

Quote: USpapergames

Please read before voting! Mission146 claims it's possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing. I claim this is not possible in any context of the word. Please think it over and discuss in the comments below what your opinions are before voting. The point of this thread is to gauge WoV's game design knowledge, I'm hoping the forum is smart enough not to cast judgement until tomorrow when I post a huge hint why Mission146 can not be correct in this instance. It's a test so don't fail me.

I'm still right, of course, but that's not even the claim that I'm making. My point is that, colloquially speaking, "Luck," simply means whatever the speaker wants it to mean. In some cases, the speaker is simply referring to variance.

Let me give you an example of a college student who says:

I woke up late for my final exam! Can you believe my final exam would be the ONE TIME I forget to set my alarm? What bad luck!

I would argue that the speaker can refer to that as, "Luck," if he wishes, but it's not. There's a clearly identifiable cause; he forgot to set his alarm.

Let us look at an example of someone who puts $100 and max bets $4 on a slot machine:

I put $100 and every single spin lost some amount! I lost $100 in five minutes! My luck is terrible!

In this case, the speaker would be using the word, "Luck," to refer to variance---which is a clearly identifiable cause for such a thing to happen in gambling. For the purposes of the machine in this example, we would probabilistically expect the speaker to have more than zero profitable spins with a base of 25 spins, but it doesn't have to happen and sometimes will not happen. Not only is it a matter of variance, but it's also short-term variance.

Definitions

The point is that the word, "Luck," can mean whatever the speaker wishes for it to mean. Sometimes people use, "Luck," when they are referring to variance. Therefore, it is possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing...relative to the speaker.

With that, let's look at the definitions that Merriam-Webster provides for luck:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/luck

Quote:

1a.) A force that brings good fortune or adversity

Strictly speaking, Variance doesn't bring good fortune or adversity, but it can be perceived to result in good fortune or adversity in the short-term vis-a-vis gambling. It doesn't actually result in it, though, variance just exists.

The only reason that I would disagree that variance strictly meets this definition is because variance is not a, "Force," in any sense that I would ever use the word. Variance is not sentient or intentional; it just exists.

Quote:

1b.) The events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual

This is a fine example of the colloquial usage of, "Luck," sometimes referring to variance because short-term variance often operates in a manner that either benefits the gambler or does not benefit him. My only disagreement would be that this does not precisely refer to variance. The reason why is because variance does not, "Operate," as it is a non-actor. Variance is used to describe the possible range of results of a thing that does operate, in the case above, the slot machine.

Quote:

2.) Favoring chance

This one is right on the money. In the short-term, there can be little doubt that the results are up to chance---that's what gambling is! The wagering of money on an uncertain outcome. On a 98% RTP (2% House Edge) machine, $100 coin-in is expected to return $98, $1000 to return $980, $10,000 to return $9,800, but that doesn't always happen.

Why doesn't it always happen? Variance. The range of results that are possible.

What would a 98% game with zero variance be? You hand me a $100 bill and I will give you back four twenties, a ten, a five and three singles.

Therefore, both, "Luck," and, "Variance," both refer to the vagaries of short-term chance in this instance.

As a Transitive Verb:

Quote:

1.) To prosper or succeed especially through chance or good fortune —usually used with out

"Lucking out," that's what happens if you play a negative expectation slot machine and hit a jackpot. A person might say, "I lucked out," or, "I got so lucky!"

However, the jackpot is among the range of possible spin results and it is nothing more than a, "Positive," deviation from the mean expected result. In the example used above, an expected return of 98%. This is sometimes referred to colloquially as, "Positive Variance," but only the numbers are positive---variance, by itself, is neither positive nor negative...it just exists.

Quote:

2.) To come upon something desirable by chance —usually used with out, on, onto, or into

Again, basically the same thing. The, "Chance," is in the fact that the result CAN deviate from the mean, which is sometimes described as variance. If the result could not deviate from the mean, then chance would not be a factor.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, it should be obvious to anyone that the word, "Luck," is sometimes used to describe Variance.

Another point that I would make is that while gambling games are, "Games of chance," a winning player does not come into the winnings, "By chance.":

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/by%20chance

Quote:

By Chance: In the haphazard course of events

But, the only thing haphazard about the event is what the gambling device will result in. The decision to play the gambling device is not haphazard at all whatsoever; it's a clearly identifiable act that created the very conditions under which winning or losing was even possible at all. You can't win or lose if you don't play.

Hell, even the results aren't technically, "Haphazard." All possible results (though it would take a massive simulation in certain cases) can be identified and each of the possible results will have a corresponding probability. If you hit the button, one result MUST take place.

So, the only thing left to chance is what the result will be. No decision before that had any element of chance whatsoever. Certainly not the decision to wager in the first place.

Therefore, I conclude that, "Luck," is sometimes used by people to describe variance.

HOWEVER, that does NOT mean (as USpapergames wrongfully claims) that I actually believe that luck and Variance are the same thing. Variance is a mathematical term that means the square of the standard deviation. The word, "Luck," has exactly nothing to do with mathematics.

I voted for Mission. Here is why. Variance has a specific definition. As Mission mentioned, ‘luck’ is open to each individual’s interpretation. And for some, they are the same.

US.... however this thread devolves, realize it is just a matter of semantics. And highly unlikely to be worth the effort you will be putting into it. And welcome back. Mike said my betting proposition about you was insulting. So please take this as my apology.

Luck is about being at the right place at the right time it’s actually a physical thing.

If any of you watch teliots video about playing 1000 baccarat shoes I can see why someone would think variance is actually equivalent to luck. When some of the simulations that we’re being performed became profitable, that was “lucky”. The variance within the betting systems which we know don’t work was the luck so to say.

Quote: heatmap

Luck is about being at the right place at the right time it’s actually a physical thing.

That's an interesting take that I could understand someone referring to as, "Luck." My take on it is that a particular event comes about by way of a series of different causal chains eventually leading to the result in question.

The events along the way for the causal chains themselves each have a certain probability (though often not strictly calculable) as does the event being referred to as the, "Lucky," event. Whatever the event is, it's just one of any possible number of theoretically possible events coming to fruition.

Whether or not that can strictly be referred to as, "Luck," makes for an interesting conversation. I'm game if you have the time.

Quote:

If any of you watch teliots video about playing 1000 baccarat shoes I can see why someone would think variance is actually equivalent to luck. When some of the simulations that we’re being performed became profitable, that was “lucky”. The variance within the betting systems which we know don’t work was the luck so to say.

I agree with that, colloquially speaking. Mathematically speaking, that's just the nature of what both simulations (and reality, given enough trials) actually do. They encompass as many potential series of results as they encompass. The more times you do that, the more likely you are to come upon a, "Less likely," result when looked at on the basis of an individual result set.

I agree that it is subjective mostly, because of the saying you create your own luck.

Luck is a function of the individuals perspective on life, as well as a physical thing because you have to be in it to win it . It’s the perspective or ones ability to see why something is advantageously lucky to them or not and the ones that can’t see those things will equate your insights for luck rather than work. (Math=insights)

I could go on for at least a couple more sentences saying stupid sayings like that lll

I apologize if this is somewhat insulting as I do not mean it but I feel as if uspapergames is torn between being a philosopher and a mathematician. Maybe he grew up wanting to be a philosopher but his family was a well known mathematics teaching family and didn’t want to let them down and now that he has achieved his goals of math it’s all spilling out as these rigidly “have to be” correct statements that are more subjective than anything and the answers are always going to be different based on what the answering person “feels”.

I’ll delete this if it’s insulting let me know

Quote: heatmap

I apologize if this is somewhat insulting as I do not mean it but I feel as if uspapergames is torn between being a philosopher and a mathematician. Maybe he grew up wanting to be a philosopher but his family was a well known mathematics teaching family and didn’t want to let them down and now that he has achieved his goals of math it’s all spilling out as these rigidly “have to be” correct statements that are more subjective than anything and the answers are always going to be different based on what the answering person “feels”.

I’ll delete this if it’s insulting let me know

I'll say this for this thread: His OP certainly had the concept of creating a strawman down.

I honestly don't know what I did to deserve the attention; maybe I should be flattered. I can assure USpapergames, or anyone else, that if the goal is to create a thread demonstrating that I'm capable of being wrong about something, then all you need do is read my articles and posting history. I'm sure that it won't take long to find something I've said that is factually wrong, rather than just arguably wrong in a semantical way.

Of course, rather than creating an entirely new thread, it would be perfectly fine just to post directly in the thread in which my statement was made. Should I happen not to respond, then anyone can feel free to send me a PM alerting me to the fact that they have challenged something I said.

Oh goody! So I was correct after all!!! Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design, & they didn't even listen to me when I said to hold off till I post a hint!!! This is a good thing of course since I get to do the "I told you so" speech" ;). Mission146 is completely wrong & what's sad is he is an accomplished casino journalist, so he is definitely taking a chance at ruining his professional reputation which was the entire point of this thread to get the message across that you really shouldn't be picking fights with me on this subject.

That being said, I don't want to convince you that I'm right but rather I want someone else in the forum to use their brain and do it for me. If nobody can then it's definitely apparent there is a huge gap of knowledge missing from the forum on this subject. It's a test, don't let me down. So here is the 1st hint, trust me by the end of all the hints everyone will realize the reality of what luck actually means. It's really disgusting that everyone believes the word can literally apply to anything like it's God being everywhere & in everything 🤮

Question: Do games like Chess, Checkers, tic tac toe, or Go have any luck in them??? (We will assume all games are played in pairs with each player going 1st & 2nd)

The vote for Mission is a statement rather than an educated guess. The members have spoke.

Quote: USpapergames

Oh goody! So I was correct after all!!! Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design, & they didn't even listen to me when I said to hold off till I post a hint!!! This is a good thing of course since I get to do the "I told you so" speech" ;). Mission146 is completely wrong & what's sad is he is an accomplished casino journalist, so he is definitely taking a chance at ruining his professional reputation which was the entire point of this thread to get the message across that you really shouldn't be picking fights with me in this subject.

That being said, I don't want to convince you that I'm right but rather want someone else in the forum to use the brain and don't for me. If nobody can then it's definitely apparent the is a huge gap of knowledge missing from the forum on this subject. It's a test, don't let me down. So here is the 1st hint, trust me by the end of all the hints everyone will realize the reality of what lick actually means. It's really disgusting that everyone believes the word can literally apply to anything 🤮

Question: Do games like Chess, Checkers, tic tac toe, or Go have any luck in them??? (We will assume all games are played in pairs with each player going 1st & 2nd)

Your statement that nobody from WoV knows anything about game design sure reads like a personal insult against actual members of WoV who have designed games. That's not for me to decide, though, so we'll just quote that for now.

Am I an accomplished casino journalist? I guess I should say I appreciate you saying that to be polite---so I appreciate you saying that. I don't consider myself to be an, "Accomplished," anything. I write stuff and get paid. The mere act of being a paid writer is insufficient, in my view, to lead to such a high designation as, "Accomplished," but you're entitled to your opinion.

As far as, "Ruining my professional reputation," is concerned, the only thing that I can say is you're clearly more worried about my professional reputation than I am. I wasn't aware that I had a professional reputation or could even be considered a professional. If what I said turns out to be wrong (which I doubt in this case) and my incorrectness ruins my, "Professional reputation," so be it I guess. I don't really put a lot of thought into my professional reputation.

As far as your, "Test," is concerned, I would encourage you to take a moment to contemplate the fact that the writers of tests have usually demonstrated superior knowledge of the subject matter compared to those being tested.

Quote: Mission146

Your statement that nobody from WoV knows anything about game design sure reads like a personal insult against actual members of WoV who have designed games. That's not for me to decide, though, so we'll just quote that for now.

Am I an accomplished casino journalist? I guess I should say I appreciate you saying that to be polite---so I appreciate you saying that. I don't consider myself to be an, "Accomplished," anything. I write stuff and get paid. The mere act of being a paid writer is insufficient, in my view, to lead to such a high designation as, "Accomplished," but you're entitled to your opinion.

As far as, "Ruining my professional reputation," is concerned, the only thing that I can say is you're clearly more worried about my professional reputation than I am. I wasn't aware that I had a professional reputation or could even be considered a professional. If what I said turns out to be wrong (which I doubt in this case) and my incorrectness ruins my, "Professional reputation," so be it I guess. I don't really put a lot of thought into my professional reputation.

As far as your, "Test," is concerned, I would encourage you to take a moment to contemplate the fact that the writers of tests have usually demonstrated superior knowledge of the subject matter compared to those being tested.

So my opinion about how knowledgeable the forum is on a particular subject is a personal insult. Honestly you should be suspended for even trying to get me suspended for my comment. 1st, explain the personal insult? I made a comment about the forum, not any particular person! 2nd, I didn't even say anything offensive! You only have yourself to blame for getting upset at someone else's opinion. But here is the really sad thing. I truly don't believe it's an opinion but rather a fact!

See in mathematics I could just prove you wrong, even if there is a high miscommunication error (which has happened on here before) at least every mathematician agrees on the same math terms. But here, we apparently have game designers who don't know anything about the science behind the game design so that is where the personal insults come up. See I don't think there are many slot machine designers that are real game designers. It's like they are all computer programmers with decent math skills and nothing more :( I swear these "slot designers" don't even know any physiology tests to design their games around :(

Also don't say you don't mind my opinion when you just said you were offended by my opinion :(

Quote: USpapergames

Please read before voting! Mission146 claims it's possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing. I claim this is not possible in any context of the word. Please think it over and discuss in the comments below what your opinions are before voting. The point of this thread is to gauge WoV's game design knowledge, I'm hoping the forum is smart enough not to cast judgement until tomorrow when I post a huge hint why Mission146 can not be correct in this instance. It's a test so don't fail me.

I am very curious about your reasoning for why the terms "Luck" and "Variance" can never be used as interchangeable synonyms.

I have played table games once this year. I had a free-ace coupon, which I think has a value of around 50% of the max bet, $5 in this case, as I could use the coupon on any bet up to $10. I think it would be accurate and permissible for me to say either of these things:
1) I got lucky and was dealt a face card, winning $15, which is more than the value of the coupon
2) I had positive variance, as I won $15, when the value was $5.

Why is one of these statements wrong? Which one is it?

I highly doubt either of us will change our minds, but I am definitely interested in the reason you think you are right and the rest of us are wrong.

Quote: vegas

The vote for Mission is a statement rather than an educated guess. The members have spoke.

I see, so your telling me the poll data doesn't actually prove that WoV is uneducated about game design? They are just voting for Mission146 because they like him more??? 🙄

Quote: TomG

I am very curious about your reasoning for why the terms "Luck" and "Variance" can never be used as interchangeable synonyms.

I have played table games once this year. I had a free-ace coupon, which I think has a value of around 50% of the max bet, $5 in this case, as I could use the coupon on any bet up to $10. I think it would be accurate and permissible for me to say either of these things:
1) I got lucky and was dealt a face card, winning $15, which is more than the value of the coupon
2) I had positive variance, as I won $15, when the value was $5.

Why is one of these statements wrong? Which one is it?

I highly doubt either of us will change our minds, but I am definitely interested in the reason you think you are right and the rest of us are wrong.

Well, I like that your at least asking questions before voting! So I believe I can help you understand this but again I'm trying to just hint at the correct answer and parenting someone else will figure it out and explain. That being said please review the question I asked in my previous comment which nobody has addressed yet.

Quote: USpapergames

Question: Do games like Chess, Checkers, tic tac toe, or Go have any luck in them??? (We will assume all games are played in pairs with each player going 1st & 2nd)

I say yes. If I ever win a game of tic-tac-toe it is because I am lucky enough to be matched up against someone who has not learned correct strategy.

I am very much open to hearing any proofs that show my statement is wrong.

Quote: TomG

I say yes. If I ever win a game of tic-tac-toe it is because I am lucky enough to be matched up against someone who has not learned correct strategy.

I am very much open to hearing any proofs that show my statement is wrong.

So according to you, there is luck in picking an opponent??? There is luck in the amount of knowledge someone can have on a subject???

Quote:

Question: Do games like Chess, Checkers, tic tac toe, or Go have any luck in them??? (We will assume all games are played in pairs with each player going 1st & 2nd)

We can get into proofs if we need to, but honestly this should be self-evident that Mission146 is wrong :/

Quote: USpapergames

So according to you, there is luck in picking an opponent???

My understanding is that there is a possiblility for a tic-tac-toe game to occur without the opponents selecting each other.

Consider a casino drawing, where the two winners of the drawing play each other in tic-tac-toe. If my name gets picked as one of the winners, and then I go on to play someone in tic-tac-toe, and I win, I would call that luck.

Quote: USpapergames

[

So my opinion about how knowledgeable the forum is on a particular subject is a personal insult. Honestly you should be suspended for even trying to get me suspended for my comment. 1st, explain the personal insult? I made a comment about the forum, not any particular person! 2nd, I didn't even say anything offensive! You only have yourself to blame for getting upset at someone else's opinion. But here is the really sad thing. I truly don't believe it's an opinion but rather a fact!

Your statement said, in part, "Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design..." To be clear, I'm not suggesting that the statement is an insult against EVERYONE on WoV necessarily, but it is certainly an insult against WoV Forum Members who have designed games to say they know nothing about game design. In effect, it's a personal insult against all members who fit that particular description.

And then in the above quote, you decide to double down on it.

For one example, Wizard has designed a couple of slot machine games that can be found here and WoO. Wizard is a forum member here on WizardofVegas. Because of that, Wizard is included in the category of people who you claim know nothing about game design.

Quote:

See in mathematics I could just prove you wrong, even if there is a high miscommunication error (which has happened on here before) at least every mathematician agrees on the same math terms. But here, we apparently have game designers who don't know anything about the science behind the game design so that is where the personal insults come up. See I don't think there are many slot machine designers that are real game designers. It's like they are all computer programmers with decent math skills and nothing more :( I swear these "slot designers" don't even know any physiology tests to design their games around :(

Also don't say you don't mind my opinion when you just said you were offended by my opinion :(

I said I didn't mind your opinion to the extent that you called me an, "Accomplished," writer, or some such. Why would that opinion bother me?

Is a slot machine not a game, in your view? What makes a game designer, "Real?" If a slot machine is a game, how could one be a slot machine designer without simultaneously being a game designer?

Quote: Mission146

Quote: USpapergames

[

So my opinion about how knowledgeable the forum is on a particular subject is a personal insult. Honestly you should be suspended for even trying to get me suspended for my comment. 1st, explain the personal insult? I made a comment about the forum, not any particular person! 2nd, I didn't even say anything offensive! You only have yourself to blame for getting upset at someone else's opinion. But here is the really sad thing. I truly don't believe it's an opinion but rather a fact!

Your statement said, in part, "Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design..." To be clear, I'm not suggesting that the statement is an insult against EVERYONE on WoV necessarily, but it is certainly an insult against WoV Forum Members who have designed games to say they know nothing about game design. In effect, it's a personal insult against all members who fit that particular description.

And then in the above quote, you decide to double down on it.

For one example, Wizard has designed a couple of slot machine games that can be found here and WoO. Wizard is a forum member here on WizardofVegas. Because of that, Wizard is included in the category of people who you claim know nothing about game design.



I said I didn't mind your opinion to the extent that you called me an, "Accomplished," writer, or some such. Why would that opinion bother me?

Is a slot machine not a game, in your view? What makes a game designer, "Real?" If a slot machine is a game, how could one be a slot machine designer without simultaneously being a game designer?

Ok how about this, if my opinion about other peoples game design knowledge bothers you this much then I will retract it. I don't wish to bicker about something like this, you win.

Quote: TomG

My understanding is that there is a possiblility for a tic-tac-toe game to occur without the opponents selecting each other.

Consider a casino drawing, where the two winners of the drawing play each other in tic-tac-toe. If my name gets picked as one of the winners, and then I go on to play someone in tic-tac-toe, and I win, I would call that luck.

You bring up a very interesting scenario. The problem is it's not related to my question since my question is about the game and not the game that is played to play the game. You literally just added a side game that is 100% luck based to a game without any luck :/

Quote: USpapergames

You bring up a very interesting scenario. The problem is it's not related to my question since my question is about the game and not the game that is played to play the game. You literally just added a side game that is 100% luck based to a game without any luck :/

I disagree. The drawing is the main game and tic tac toe is the side game.

Quote: unJon

I disagree. The drawing is the main game and tic tac toe is the side game.

In all honestly, you might actually be correct on this 🏆. Tic tac toe is such an easy game that it probably doesn't qualify as being a main game. Good job 👍

Quote: USpapergames

Ok how about this, if my opinion about other peoples game design knowledge bothers you this much then I will retract it. I don't wish to bicker about something like this, you win.

Fair enough.

Quote: USpapergames

You bring up a very interesting scenario. The problem is it's not related to my question since my question is about the game and not the game that is played to play the game. You literally just added a side game that is 100% luck based to a game without any luck :/

Yet in that scenario I would still have no hesitation describing my tic-tac-toe win as luck. I contend that it is a permissible description, because everyone (including you) agrees that the factors that led to my win were based on luck. No one else in the world would have a problem with that description. You are the only one who would be so pedantic as to focus on luck being a part of the selection process and not the resulting factor for the tic-tac-toe game. And if I can think of anything more creative than pedantic to describe your dialogue I will gladly take a suspension for it. That would be better than doing these wordplay dances you like so much.

Quote: USpapergames

Oh goody! So I was correct after all!!! Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design, & they didn't even listen to me when I said to hold off till I post a hint!!! This is a good thing of course since I get to do the "I told you so" speech" ;). Mission146 is completely wrong & what's sad is he is an accomplished casino journalist, so he is definitely taking a chance at ruining his professional reputation which was the entire point of this thread to get the message across that you really shouldn't be picking fights with me on this subject.

That being said, I don't want to convince you that I'm right but rather I want someone else in the forum to use their brain and do it for me. If nobody can then it's definitely apparent there is a huge gap of knowledge missing from the forum on this subject. It's a test, don't let me down. So here is the 1st hint, trust me by the end of all the hints everyone will realize the reality of what luck actually means. It's really disgusting that everyone believes the word can literally apply to anything like it's God being everywhere & in everything 🤮

Per the Martingale, one-month suspension issued for trolling Mission and insulting the entire forum. This is based on the entirety of USPG's latest posts, the quoted one above is just an example.

Quote: Wizard

Per the Martingale, one-month suspension issued for trolling Mission and insulting the entire forum. This is based on the entirety of USPG's latest posts, the quoted one above is just an example.

Thank you!

My guess is that he will not last a week after this suspension before the next one after he starts posting.

Quote: Wizard

Per the Martingale, one-month suspension issued for trolling Mission and insulting the entire forum. This is based on the entirety of USPG's latest posts, the quoted one above is just an example.

US.... it seems you enjoy posting here. The rules here are really not that complicated. I've been suspended around once every two years, and each time I knew I was at risk but determined that the benefit of making my post outweighed the suspension risk. I can't see how you are getting any benefit from the posts you make that get you suspended.

This thread, as an example, could have gone much better had it been just titled.... "Luck, variance.... the same, different?" And then you could have just given your opinion and the reasons for such, opening up a CONVERSATION, not a test.

By the way, since part of the suspension will be in February, I am asking for the Wiz to count the one month as only 28 days.

Quote: SOOPOO

By the way, since part of the suspension will be in February, I am asking for the Wiz to count the one month as only 28 days.

I am hoping for 31 days.

I’m still confused about the distinction between variance and luck. Sounded like it was headed to a place where variance equals rectangles and luck equals squares.

Quote: USpapergames

So according to you, there is luck in picking an opponent???

No. Only variance.

Too bad USPaper is gone... I've thought about luck in chess.... as a kid I went to the library and took out every chess book.... at one point I studied and practiced the queen pawn opening..... so for my rating (topped out at 1600) I was much better at defending that than a king pawn opening....

So in a single game against an unknown opponent, I would say I was LUCKY if my opponent opened P- Q4 as opposed to P- K4. P- K3, etc...