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USpapergames
USpapergames
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January 25th, 2021 at 10:00:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

They aren't the same thing because the first one has a clear definition and the second one means whatever the hell the speaker wants it to mean. In the case of this particular speaker, it's just a word people use when they mean variance.

Any other uses of, "Luck," tend to have some sort of metaphysical element.



Please read before voting! Mission146 claims it's possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing. I claim this is not possible in any context of the word. Please think it over and discuss in the comments below what your opinions are before voting. The point of this thread is to gauge WoV's game design knowledge, I'm hoping the forum is smart enough not to cast judgement until tomorrow when I post a huge hint why Mission146 can not be correct in this instance. It's a test so don't fail me.
Math is the only true form of knowledge
ChumpChange
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unJonMission146Calder
January 25th, 2021 at 11:22:25 PM permalink
I played Ouija Dice and it said the stickman had COVID-19.
Mission146
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odiousgambit
January 26th, 2021 at 4:39:43 AM permalink
Quote: USpapergames

Please read before voting! Mission146 claims it's possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing. I claim this is not possible in any context of the word. Please think it over and discuss in the comments below what your opinions are before voting. The point of this thread is to gauge WoV's game design knowledge, I'm hoping the forum is smart enough not to cast judgement until tomorrow when I post a huge hint why Mission146 can not be correct in this instance. It's a test so don't fail me.



I'm still right, of course, but that's not even the claim that I'm making. My point is that, colloquially speaking, "Luck," simply means whatever the speaker wants it to mean. In some cases, the speaker is simply referring to variance.

Let me give you an example of a college student who says:

I woke up late for my final exam! Can you believe my final exam would be the ONE TIME I forget to set my alarm? What bad luck!

I would argue that the speaker can refer to that as, "Luck," if he wishes, but it's not. There's a clearly identifiable cause; he forgot to set his alarm.

Let us look at an example of someone who puts $100 and max bets $4 on a slot machine:

I put $100 and every single spin lost some amount! I lost $100 in five minutes! My luck is terrible!

In this case, the speaker would be using the word, "Luck," to refer to variance---which is a clearly identifiable cause for such a thing to happen in gambling. For the purposes of the machine in this example, we would probabilistically expect the speaker to have more than zero profitable spins with a base of 25 spins, but it doesn't have to happen and sometimes will not happen. Not only is it a matter of variance, but it's also short-term variance.

Definitions

The point is that the word, "Luck," can mean whatever the speaker wishes for it to mean. Sometimes people use, "Luck," when they are referring to variance. Therefore, it is possible for variance & luck to equal the same thing...relative to the speaker.

With that, let's look at the definitions that Merriam-Webster provides for luck:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/luck

Quote:

1a.) A force that brings good fortune or adversity



Strictly speaking, Variance doesn't bring good fortune or adversity, but it can be perceived to result in good fortune or adversity in the short-term vis-a-vis gambling. It doesn't actually result in it, though, variance just exists.

The only reason that I would disagree that variance strictly meets this definition is because variance is not a, "Force," in any sense that I would ever use the word. Variance is not sentient or intentional; it just exists.

Quote:

1b.) The events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual



This is a fine example of the colloquial usage of, "Luck," sometimes referring to variance because short-term variance often operates in a manner that either benefits the gambler or does not benefit him. My only disagreement would be that this does not precisely refer to variance. The reason why is because variance does not, "Operate," as it is a non-actor. Variance is used to describe the possible range of results of a thing that does operate, in the case above, the slot machine.

Quote:

2.) Favoring chance



This one is right on the money. In the short-term, there can be little doubt that the results are up to chance---that's what gambling is! The wagering of money on an uncertain outcome. On a 98% RTP (2% House Edge) machine, $100 coin-in is expected to return $98, $1000 to return $980, $10,000 to return $9,800, but that doesn't always happen.

Why doesn't it always happen? Variance. The range of results that are possible.

What would a 98% game with zero variance be? You hand me a $100 bill and I will give you back four twenties, a ten, a five and three singles.

Therefore, both, "Luck," and, "Variance," both refer to the vagaries of short-term chance in this instance.

As a Transitive Verb:

Quote:

1.) To prosper or succeed especially through chance or good fortune —usually used with out



"Lucking out," that's what happens if you play a negative expectation slot machine and hit a jackpot. A person might say, "I lucked out," or, "I got so lucky!"

However, the jackpot is among the range of possible spin results and it is nothing more than a, "Positive," deviation from the mean expected result. In the example used above, an expected return of 98%. This is sometimes referred to colloquially as, "Positive Variance," but only the numbers are positive---variance, by itself, is neither positive nor negative...it just exists.

Quote:

2.) To come upon something desirable by chance —usually used with out, on, onto, or into



Again, basically the same thing. The, "Chance," is in the fact that the result CAN deviate from the mean, which is sometimes described as variance. If the result could not deviate from the mean, then chance would not be a factor.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, it should be obvious to anyone that the word, "Luck," is sometimes used to describe Variance.

Another point that I would make is that while gambling games are, "Games of chance," a winning player does not come into the winnings, "By chance.":

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/by%20chance

Quote:

By Chance: In the haphazard course of events



But, the only thing haphazard about the event is what the gambling device will result in. The decision to play the gambling device is not haphazard at all whatsoever; it's a clearly identifiable act that created the very conditions under which winning or losing was even possible at all. You can't win or lose if you don't play.

Hell, even the results aren't technically, "Haphazard." All possible results (though it would take a massive simulation in certain cases) can be identified and each of the possible results will have a corresponding probability. If you hit the button, one result MUST take place.

So, the only thing left to chance is what the result will be. No decision before that had any element of chance whatsoever. Certainly not the decision to wager in the first place.

Therefore, I conclude that, "Luck," is sometimes used by people to describe variance.

HOWEVER, that does NOT mean (as USpapergames wrongfully claims) that I actually believe that luck and Variance are the same thing. Variance is a mathematical term that means the square of the standard deviation. The word, "Luck," has exactly nothing to do with mathematics.
Last edited by: Mission146 on Jan 26, 2021
Vultures can't be choosers.
SOOPOO
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Mission146odiousgambitunJon
January 26th, 2021 at 6:34:16 AM permalink
I voted for Mission. Here is why. Variance has a specific definition. As Mission mentioned, ‘luck’ is open to each individual’s interpretation. And for some, they are the same.

US.... however this thread devolves, realize it is just a matter of semantics. And highly unlikely to be worth the effort you will be putting into it. And welcome back. Mike said my betting proposition about you was insulting. So please take this as my apology.
heatmap
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Mission146
January 26th, 2021 at 10:27:15 AM permalink
Luck is about being at the right place at the right time it’s actually a physical thing.

If any of you watch teliots video about playing 1000 baccarat shoes I can see why someone would think variance is actually equivalent to luck. When some of the simulations that we’re being performed became profitable, that was “lucky”. The variance within the betting systems which we know don’t work was the luck so to say.
Mission146
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January 26th, 2021 at 10:37:46 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

Luck is about being at the right place at the right time it’s actually a physical thing.



That's an interesting take that I could understand someone referring to as, "Luck." My take on it is that a particular event comes about by way of a series of different causal chains eventually leading to the result in question.

The events along the way for the causal chains themselves each have a certain probability (though often not strictly calculable) as does the event being referred to as the, "Lucky," event. Whatever the event is, it's just one of any possible number of theoretically possible events coming to fruition.

Whether or not that can strictly be referred to as, "Luck," makes for an interesting conversation. I'm game if you have the time.

Quote:

If any of you watch teliots video about playing 1000 baccarat shoes I can see why someone would think variance is actually equivalent to luck. When some of the simulations that we’re being performed became profitable, that was “lucky”. The variance within the betting systems which we know don’t work was the luck so to say.



I agree with that, colloquially speaking. Mathematically speaking, that's just the nature of what both simulations (and reality, given enough trials) actually do. They encompass as many potential series of results as they encompass. The more times you do that, the more likely you are to come upon a, "Less likely," result when looked at on the basis of an individual result set.
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heatmap
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Mission146
January 26th, 2021 at 11:14:12 AM permalink
I agree that it is subjective mostly, because of the saying you create your own luck.

Luck is a function of the individuals perspective on life, as well as a physical thing because you have to be in it to win it . It’s the perspective or ones ability to see why something is advantageously lucky to them or not and the ones that can’t see those things will equate your insights for luck rather than work. (Math=insights)

I could go on for at least a couple more sentences saying stupid sayings like that lll
heatmap
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Mission146Hunterhill
January 26th, 2021 at 11:37:54 AM permalink
I apologize if this is somewhat insulting as I do not mean it but I feel as if uspapergames is torn between being a philosopher and a mathematician. Maybe he grew up wanting to be a philosopher but his family was a well known mathematics teaching family and didn’t want to let them down and now that he has achieved his goals of math it’s all spilling out as these rigidly “have to be” correct statements that are more subjective than anything and the answers are always going to be different based on what the answering person “feels”.

I’ll delete this if it’s insulting let me know
Mission146
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January 26th, 2021 at 11:44:29 AM permalink
Quote: heatmap

I apologize if this is somewhat insulting as I do not mean it but I feel as if uspapergames is torn between being a philosopher and a mathematician. Maybe he grew up wanting to be a philosopher but his family was a well known mathematics teaching family and didn’t want to let them down and now that he has achieved his goals of math it’s all spilling out as these rigidly “have to be” correct statements that are more subjective than anything and the answers are always going to be different based on what the answering person “feels”.

I’ll delete this if it’s insulting let me know



I'll say this for this thread: His OP certainly had the concept of creating a strawman down.

I honestly don't know what I did to deserve the attention; maybe I should be flattered. I can assure USpapergames, or anyone else, that if the goal is to create a thread demonstrating that I'm capable of being wrong about something, then all you need do is read my articles and posting history. I'm sure that it won't take long to find something I've said that is factually wrong, rather than just arguably wrong in a semantical way.

Of course, rather than creating an entirely new thread, it would be perfectly fine just to post directly in the thread in which my statement was made. Should I happen not to respond, then anyone can feel free to send me a PM alerting me to the fact that they have challenged something I said.
Vultures can't be choosers.
USpapergames
USpapergames
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January 26th, 2021 at 12:09:33 PM permalink
Oh goody! So I was correct after all!!! Nobody from WoV knows anything about game design, & they didn't even listen to me when I said to hold off till I post a hint!!! This is a good thing of course since I get to do the "I told you so" speech" ;). Mission146 is completely wrong & what's sad is he is an accomplished casino journalist, so he is definitely taking a chance at ruining his professional reputation which was the entire point of this thread to get the message across that you really shouldn't be picking fights with me on this subject.

That being said, I don't want to convince you that I'm right but rather I want someone else in the forum to use their brain and do it for me. If nobody can then it's definitely apparent there is a huge gap of knowledge missing from the forum on this subject. It's a test, don't let me down. So here is the 1st hint, trust me by the end of all the hints everyone will realize the reality of what luck actually means. It's really disgusting that everyone believes the word can literally apply to anything like it's God being everywhere & in everything 🤮

Question: Do games like Chess, Checkers, tic tac toe, or Go have any luck in them??? (We will assume all games are played in pairs with each player going 1st & 2nd)
Last edited by: USpapergames on Jan 26, 2021
Math is the only true form of knowledge

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