Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Mental
December 17th, 2020 at 9:30:45 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In your opinion, has that change done anything to improve the forum? Is this forum better off since you made the change?



Yes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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December 17th, 2020 at 10:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In your opinion, has that change done anything to improve the forum? Is this forum better off since you made the change?



I don'tknow if it is any better but it sure isn't getting worse like it was with the political stuff.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
Joined: Dec 28, 2014
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December 17th, 2020 at 10:32:04 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I don'tknow if it is any better but it sure isn't getting worse like it was with the political stuff.


Iím not trying to be hyper-critical of WOV by saying this, but I think most would agree that the forum isnít nearly as good as it was 2014-2018.

A lot of really great posters left either in mass exodus, or slowly not visiting as much over time.

I have been posting in various tech/hobby/game forums since 2000 or so. Every forum I have ever loved seems to have 3-5 golden years before it goes on the decline for one reason or another.
Last edited by: gamerfreak on Dec 17, 2020
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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MentalRogerKintJoemanrdw4potusMinty
December 17th, 2020 at 11:09:57 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Iím not trying to be hyper-critical of WOV by saying this, but I think most would agree that the forum isnít nearly as good as it was 2014-2018.

A lot of really great posters left either in mass exodus, or slowly not visiting as much over time.

I have been posting in various tech/hobby/game forums since 2000 or so. Every forum I have ever loved seems to have a 3-5 golden years before it goes on the decline for one reason or another.

I ran cardcounter.com which had a forum for about 3 years. I was inundated with anti-semitism, people hacking the code, trolling, stalking, and everything else before I threw in the towel.

The ideal forum owner has both experience as an army sergeant and experience as a kindergarten teacher. I give Mike great admiration for surviving the pain for this long while keeping the site on track with its original mission.
Visit my YouTube Channel: @AdvancedAdvantagePlay
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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December 17th, 2020 at 4:28:22 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I give Mike great admiration for surviving the pain for this long while keeping the site on track with its original mission.



Thank you Eliot!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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December 19th, 2020 at 12:01:18 AM permalink
Anymore taker?
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 10th, 2021 at 9:29:33 PM permalink
BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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January 10th, 2021 at 10:22:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.

I dont have access to betfair or william hill. Fell bad to miss the opportunity. But I suggest you to jump on it.

Since Mike/you bring it up. Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
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January 11th, 2021 at 5:11:22 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.


It might be suboptimal to bet on something as uncertain as this when you can bet against Trump's cabinet members staying in office on the 21st. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 This is a 99.99% sure thing to bet on No at 92 cents to win 7.2 cents after fees or almost 13 to 1. There is a $850 cap on each contract, but there are so many contracts available.

Taking withdrawal fees into account, you need to recycle your profits into another bet to improve the profit after fees. After Feb 15th, this market probably won't be at 92 cents: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1

I am amazed how often I can bet on arbitrage or sure things. I plan on keeping my winning on the site after these markets close.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 11th, 2021 at 6:21:12 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.

As a reminder, political opinions are not allowed at WoV. Discussion of betting on politics is.


It might be suboptimal to bet on something as uncertain as this when you can bet against Trump's cabinet members staying in office on the 21st. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 This is a 99.99% sure thing to bet on No at 92 cents to win 7.2 cents after fees or almost 13 to 1. There is a $850 cap on each contract, but there are so many contracts available.

Taking withdrawal fees into account, you need to recycle your profits into another bet to improve the profit after fees. After Feb 15th, this market probably won't be at 92 cents: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1

I am amazed how often I can bet on arbitrage or sure things. I plan on keeping my winning on the site after these markets close.



Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.

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