When will this be over?
Poll
 | 3 votes (8.1%) | ||
| | 9 votes (24.32%) | ||
| | 11 votes (29.72%) | ||
| | 10 votes (27.02%) | ||
| | 3 votes (8.1%) | ||
| | 4 votes (10.81%) | ||
| | 2 votes (5.4%) | ||
| | 5 votes (13.51%) | ||
| | 1 vote (2.7%) | ||
| | 3 votes (8.1%) |
37 members have voted
If the incubation period is up to 14 days, and the sickness takes up to 14 days if you survive, that's 28 days. We have been doing nothing for some time, who is spreading it after a month. This disease should almost be gone by then. Afterwards, people can either be tested to see if they have it and those who need to be round up can be round up and quarantined and those who have been through it should be free to do what they want. Things will not be normal, we should not let anyone in nor out of the US, until it is safe worldwide.
It's already spreading internally in every country. Closing borders failed. Until a vaccine is available, we have to manage the spread with social distancing. And that's only as successful as the getting everyone to comply. More likely we will see our medical services swamped and many thousands dead, and still there are plenty of idiots to keep infection in circulation. There's no cure for stupid.Quote: onenickelmiracleThings will not be normal, we should not let anyone in nor out of the US, until it is safe worldwide.
Quote: onenickelmiracleVote for the most likely dates, we can say it's a free world again for the most part.
If the incubation period is up to 14 days, and the sickness takes up to 14 days if you survive, that's 28 days. We have been doing nothing for some time, who is spreading it after a month. This disease should almost be gone by then.
If only social distancing was THAT effective. People are still going out to get food, some still going to work, etc. It helps, but you need true lockdowns to beat this in a month. The biggest reason to shut non-essential things down and keep as many people at home possible is to lower the quickly rising pressure on our health care system.
Quote: tringlomaneIf only social distancing was THAT effective. People are still going out to get food, some still going to work, etc. It helps, but you need true lockdowns to beat this in a month. The biggest reason to shut non-essential things down and keep as many people at home possible is to lower the quickly rising pressure on our health care system.
That’s right. If people go back to normal too quickly, we’ll see humps instead of a flattened curve.
Now havimg any number of people in your house presents more of a problem if people are spreading the virus in your living space.
China did have lock downs, I don't think the entire country was locked down. Korea and Singapore locked down their country as soon as they heard there was a virus. From there, they obtained as many tests as they could, and any masks, etc. They basically had detectives figure out where anyone infected was and found and tested anyone who had had contact. They quarantined anyone who needed to be quarantined. They're basically just keeping the wall up waiting for the rest of the world to be cleared. You do not need a flat curve by social distancing, there is another way and this can be done faster. What is needed is cooperation, coordination, and accountability and/or luck. This disease could just disappear and die out. I'm sure I'm probably mixing things up a bit, but for the most part, this CDC plan is not necessary for a year and we can abandon it as soon as safe. It was necessary, but it will not be necessary sooner than they say.
Countries also need to not have things essential for national security be in other countries. China is going to have to lose a lot of business.
It should bring things down to manageable, I don't know if it's a thing like Nazi germany about showing your papers and the elites won't go with it, but we can be free.Quote: tringlomaneIf only social distancing was THAT effective. People are still going out to get food, some still going to work, etc. It helps, but you need true lockdowns to beat this in a month. The biggest reason to shut non-essential things down and keep as many people at home possible is to lower the quickly rising pressure on our health care system.
There are 4 types of people with regards to COVID19;
1)Recovered
2)Sick
3)Unexposed
4)Dead
The sick and the unexposed are the only ones who have to be accounted for. Maybe we can even have volunteers under 50 to be exposed, and monitor and care for them in all these empty hotels across the US. Something can be done with maximum freedom and liberty. Everyone should be smart enough to take the next steps and see the possibilities with their own posts and thought experiments(oops almost spelled it expiraments:ironic)
I see two pivot points, both being worked on: will I survive (or my loved ones) a potential exposure? - requires valid evidence pointing to success on either vaccines and/or treatments- followed by (and possibly more important) can our Health System sustain an opening of the flood gates? Ford and Tesla and potentially many others have indicated they are ready to revamp their assembly lines for this purpose. We are mobilizing industry - still amid a capitalist system to attack a universal problem - which is awesome!
Rumors also of liquor manufacturers turning to hand sanitizing!
The two will cross their respective paths long before one alone would push society and governments to feel "Safe". Buried underneath the fear mongering and divisive headlines is a lot of hope. America and the world at large, truly are strong when attacking a worldwide threat. We mobilize to what is needed, regardless of political agenda, although we haven't really tested that mindset since WWII- we are living it now.
Adding into the mix is potential Herd Immunity... on this we really dropped the ball... many of us may have taken this on- survived- and have no idea.
Fear may stretch this further out, but i hope to see MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL and NCAA on television in September all at the same time *tears of joy*
Quote: onenickelmiracleMario Cuomo thinks up to 9 months, yeah right....
Mario Cuomo is dead.
Quote: UP84Mario Cuomo is dead.
Hu dat be den
Quote: onenickelmiracleMario Cuomo thinks up to 9 months, yeah right...
Quote: UP84Mario Cuomo is dead
Quote: onenickelmiracleHu dat be den
Hiz sun Andwew
Quote: UP84Hiz sun Andwew
Reading is fundamental.
Quote: beachbumbabsI'm guessing 7-9 months, think I picked November for the resumption of near-normal activity.
I sure hope your guess is correct. I think CDC Director Anthony Fauci says 12 to 18 months.
I also hope we have a very, VERY quiet hurricane season.
Quote: DRichHow do you define when something is over? I think by the end of May most businesses will be back open again in places where they have been forced to close.
When you can move about freely without fear. We do not need to have herd immunity completely. When the point comes the cases are hard to come by, mass testing can trace the loose infections. Even having security turning away people with fevers would be good. I'm a little mentally drained right now, but it definitely can be done differently than what we're doing. Anyone who wants to google search South Korea, Singapore and maybe Japan can see what I'm talking about.
Plus only the elderly over 50 need social distancing. They can stay in their houses and everyone else can go outside, work, etc. They can wear the masks if there aren't enough. If they happen to have children or people under 50 living with them, the young in the family should stay home.
They had schools open in those other Asian countries and they have it under control. A factor could be the low numbers of children they have per adult.
The real question is when will business that is closed by government order be allowed to reopen.
BBB said November for normalcy. Does that mean all Vegas casinos will reopen in November? Disneyland and other amusement parks? Broadway?
And of they open earlier what will they do during the non-normal period that's different from before.
I don't know what this country will look like economically if the closures end in November but that's not gonna be pretty
NY Subway's are now filled with homeless who are are stretching out on benches normally filled with commuters and sleeping like babies.
A friend of mine argued it won't be long before Coronavirus wipes them out as homeless have bad hygiene due to their situation
I took the opposite tack. It should be pointed out that the primary methods of avoiding transmission is
1) social distance
2) non-physical contact like avoiding shaking hands
Precisely the conditions the homeless have been practicing out of necessity way before the virus.
They are shunned by the general public (how many times have you witnessed regular folks refuse to sit near a homeless person or walk an extra SIX feet(Coronavirus style) around them.
Homeless don't go on "buddy" parties where they hang out at bars drinking (and aside from the movies I never saw any groups hanging around trashcans with fires sharing their problems. That's just a Hollywood myth)
The irony may be the safest group of people on the planet turn out to be the homeless population
I don't know about where you are, but here in Vegas they certainly seem to hang out in packs. Just the other day while driving on the strip I saw a group of five or six of them all sitting on and around the same bench having a good old time, or commiserating.Quote: darkozOn a related note:
NY Subway's are now filled with homeless who are are stretching out on benches normally filled with commuters and sleeping like babies.
A friend of mine argued it won't be long before Coronavirus wipes them out as homeless have bad hygiene due to their situation
I took the opposite tack. It should be pointed out that the primary methods of avoiding transmission is
1) social distance
2) non-physical contact like avoiding shaking hands
Precisely the conditions the homeless have been practicing out of necessity way before the virus.
They are shunned by the general public (how many times have you witnessed regular folks refuse to sit near a homeless person or walk an extra SIX feet(Coronavirus style) around them.
Homeless don't go on "buddy" parties where they hang out at bars drinking (and aside from the movies I never saw any groups hanging around trashcans with fires sharing their problems. That's just a Hollywood myth)
The irony may be the safest group of people on the planet turn out to be the homeless population
edit to add:
In cities like Los Angeles, where gatherings have essentially been banned over the outbreak, homeless people still remain on the street, often clustered in tent camps with little privacy from one another. And until Tuesday, they were required to take down these tents during the day, further exposing them to the risk of contracting and spreading Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Bad health conditions and the lack of shelter make homeless people vulnerable to Covid-19
Living without a stable home is bad for your health. Lack of health care coupled with malnutrition and bad hygiene put homeless people at risk of contracting contagious and chronic illnesses.
The rates of respiratory diseases, which is a major risk factor for Covid-19 patients, are particularly high among this population. A study that observed a hospital in Washington found that 32 percent of those hospitalized for respiratory diseases were homeless, compared with 6.5 percent of all patients hospitalized.
Quote: onenickelmiracleMario Cuomo thinks up to 9 months, yeah right, there is no reason for healthy people to be locked up for so long. I want $500 a day at least for false imprisonment, probably closer to $1000 a day because the world is likely to be a joke economy.
He apologized for that comment today. Manned up. Said that was a feeling he had and was not supported by the experts.
I put July 1. Viruses tend to not do well in the late spring / summer which is good for people. Some drugs are showing some limited success in treatment. China is sort of back to approaching normal already. The death rate seems to be lower per case than in other parts of the world due to our robust health care system. Would I be stunned if it was June 1? Yes I would. Would I be stunned if it is August ? Nope. But after September 1? Yes.
,
Quote: onenickelmiracleMario Cuomo thinks up to 9 months, yeah right, there is no reason for healthy people to be locked up for so long. I want $500 a day at least for false imprisonment, probably closer to $1000 a day because the world is likely to be a joke economy.
In Nevada, no healthy people are being locked up (or on lockdown or on quarantine or anything else I've heard it being described as). All non-essential businesses were told to close, and that's pretty much it. The exact extent they are being forced to do so is still unclear. Last I heard, district attorneys were saying they are not going prosecute violators of those orders. Places could lose their business licenses by staying open, so I wouldn't risk it. I think very few states have gone much further than that. The current order on that is through middle of April. Going longer than that has to be the favorite. But I am not seeing a clear path to a third month, so of the poll options, I'll go with 1 June.
Quote: SOOPOOChina is sort of back to approaching normal already.
That's what they tell us, anyway, right? Do we somehow have any kind of third party verification that things are calming down in China?
Quote: darkozI think the question is too vague.
The real question is when will business that is closed by government order be allowed to reopen.
people who can creatively run their business while maintaining the margins of safety should be allowed to do so.
Quote: Suited89You know, there's when you and I recover, and then there's when the INVESTMENTS You and I have recover. There might be disparity.
I'm not retiring for about 20 years so I hope it's before then.
how do they know there are no new cases? That would be reported cases correct? Certainly there can't be NO new cases, I would think?Quote: TigerWuItaly has had two days in a row now of not only declining deaths, but also new cases.
No doubt, that's obviously a good sign.
Quote: SOOPOOHe apologized for that comment today. Manned up. Said that was a feeling he had and was not supported by the experts.
I put July 1. Viruses tend to not do well in the late spring / summer which is good for people. Some drugs are showing some limited success in treatment. China is sort of back to approaching normal already. The death rate seems to be lower per case than in other parts of the world due to our robust health care system. Would I be stunned if it was June 1? Yes I would. Would I be stunned if it is August ? Nope. But after September 1? Yes.
,
The number of deaths reported in many states exceeds the number of people who are classified as recovered. I'm not sure what to make of that.
One cable network is proclaiming the anti-malaria drug as a game changer and another is reporting three people died overnite from overdosing on it. Some talking head from France says the difference between an effective dose and a lethal one is minute.
I imagine a 130 pound person will need a different dose than a 78 pound one or a 250 pounder.
Quote: AxelWolfhow do they know there are no new cases? That would be reported cases correct? Certainly there can't be NO new cases, I would think?
No doubt, that's obviously a good sign.
Yes, the number of reported/confirmed cases has been declining the last couple of days. I have no idea how that corresponds to the actual number of tests being done, though.
You cannot book an AC casino hotel room for any date before Friday April 3rd. If you try you get a grey colored box that says rooms at that location are unavailable to book.
April 3rd you can book rooms like normal
So any opinions on AC being open by April 3rd.
I believe that was the original order for the shutdown with the caveat that it would be reevaluated as we get closer
I just saw a hotels.com ad on TV yesterday where they encouraged everyone to "just stay home."Quote: darkozDoing a little test on hotels.com
You cannot book an AC casino hotel room for any date before Friday April 3rd. If you try you get a grey colored box that says rooms at that location are unavailable to book.
April 3rd you can book rooms like normal
So any opinions on AC being open by April 3rd.
I believe that was the original order for the shutdown with the caveat that it would be reevaluated as we get closer
Quote: darkozDoing a little test on hotels.com
You cannot book an AC casino hotel room for any date before Friday April 3rd. If you try you get a grey colored box that says rooms at that location are unavailable to book.
I had no problem finding rooms available in AC on kayak. Lodging is absolutely essential. Truck drivers are among the most critical operations right now and they need places to stay. Pipes can burst and homes can become unlivable. Homeless who still have $50 should not be forced back on to the streets.
Quote: TomGI had no problem finding rooms available in AC on kayak. Lodging is absolutely essential. Truck drivers are among the most critical operations right now and they need places to stay. Pipes can burst and homes can become unlivable. Homeless who still have $50 should not be forced back on to the streets.
Specifically hotels connected to casinos just to be clear
Yes there are rooms in ac but not at the nine casino properties
Quote: darkozDoing a little test on hotels.com
You cannot book an AC casino hotel room for any date before Friday April 3rd. If you try you get a grey colored box that says rooms at that location are unavailable to book.
April 3rd you can book rooms like normal
So any opinions on AC being open by April 3rd.
I believe that was the original order for the shutdown with the caveat that it would be reevaluated as we get closer
My guess is the April 3 date has no meaning at all. They have no idea when they’ll reopen. Maybe they just left the first weekend in April available in case.
The curve in NJ is only getting steeper
Quote: AxelWolfHow many, if any, and what casinos won't be able to open back up after this?
I bet they'll all be able to open back up... especially the ones in Vegas.
Maybe the podunk ones in BFE with a bingo hall and 20 slot machines won't be able to make it, but all the "real" casinos will pull through.
Quote: AxelWolfHow many, if any, and what casinos won't be able to open back up after this?
If it lasts one more month, probably all of them.
If it lasts 6 more months , maybe a few can’t survive.
Might depend on the fixed costs they continue to incur month to month while having no revenue. And what their overall financial strength was going into this.
Quote: michael99000My guess is the April 3 date has no meaning at all. They have no idea when they’ll reopen. Maybe they just left the first weekend in April available in case.
The curve in NJ is only getting steeper
Florida's Covid-19 curve is getting steeper also. Today's update indicates 10 percent of those tested in Florida show a positive result. However, only 12K tests have been administered in a state with over 20 million residents. At this time, about 800 await Covid-19 testing in Florida.
IIRC, the Fools Day (or thereabouts) deadline was referenced widely -- not just AC -- because by that time we should have a much better idea of how bad the pandemic effects would be. Some optimists hoped schools could reopen, etc. CDC Director Fauci says 12 to 18 months of pandemic, but I can't imagine a total lock-down for more than a week. In Italy, yes. In America, no. IMHO, America will slog through the pandemic somehow, but it probably won't be pretty.
Make of that what you will...
Quote: ams288POTUS just said he will reopen the economy shortly after 15-day social distancing period ends 3/31.
Make of that what you will...
It makes no sense cause he didn't close the economy to begin with. All the closure orders came from state governors.
I want to say more but don't want to become too political. Let's say I don't see how he can order opening when he never ordered closing
Quote: darkozIt makes no sense cause he didn't close the economy to begin with. All the closure orders came from state governors.
I want to say more but don't want to become too political. Let's say I don't see how he can order opening when he never ordered closing
I live in Michigan. We have an stay at home order starting tonight until April 13th.
I’d be interested to know how this March 31st idea would work here...
Quote: billryanThe number of deaths reported in many states exceeds the number of people who are classified as recovered. I'm not sure what to make of that.
One cable network is proclaiming the anti-malaria drug as a game changer and another is reporting three people died overnite from overdosing on it. Some talking head from France says the difference between an effective dose and a lethal one is minute.
I imagine a 130 pound person will need a different dose than a 78 pound one or a 250 pounder.
A friend (also an anesthesiologist) went and bought a bunch of the anti-malarial. Wife and I spoke about it and decided against. Right after that decision I received a lengthy "Executive Order" from the governor stating it is basically illegal to get the chloroquin unless you are officially enrolled in a state approved trial. I spoke to my Infectious Disease Doctor friend (coincidentally he now lives and practices in Las Vegas) and he says the chloroquin story is not based on any real data. He is prescribing the antiviral, whose name I now forget) instead.
Wife (dentist) SPECIFICALLY mentioned the risk of overdosing for this new 'indication'. I guess she was right.
Quote: ams288POTUS just said he will reopen the economy shortly after 15-day social distancing period ends 3/31.
Make of that what you will...
ZERO chance. How about that? Some areas will just be BEGINNING the worst of it around then.
