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rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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March 26th, 2020 at 7:44:09 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

had it and recovered without ever knowing they had it.

And the only way to find that out is a blood test for the antibodies people would have developed in overcoming the virus. Luckily, it's a cheap and simple test that they can easily run. They're talking about doing it, but no action yet that I know of. It would help enormously to map the disease.



True random sampling should answer that. Probably will be the most accurate measure we'll ever get in this imperfect testing and surveying environment, with people missed or misdiagnosed.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 27th, 2020 at 3:59:20 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

What we don't have is enough evidence to know how many people have had a mild case and recovered. They're doing all of this blind without that information.

Right now, out of 83,000 cases in the US, about 1200 have died, and only 260 have recovered. The rest 80k+ are still ill, defined as confirmed cases still testing positive.

So for every one who's actually recovered, 5 have died.

We had all better HOPE there's a boatload of people out there who had it and recovered without ever knowing they had it.

And the only way to find that out is a blood test for the antibodies people would have developed in overcoming the virus. Luckily, it's a cheap and simple test that they can easily run. They're talking about doing it, but no action yet that I know of. It would help enormously to map the disease.



There is a flaw in your alarmism. How long does it take to "recover" vs. how long does it take to die?

It is easy to die fast from a thing like this. You can die within days of having it. But when is "recovery" determined? Weeks? Months?

So, if those that die will die within a week but it takes 3 weeks to recover, we have few people who can even be pronounced "recovered" as the thing has not been active in the USA for much before March 1. I am not saying since patient zero, I am talking significant numbers. If we take this date then you would have 4 weeks to report deaths but 1 to report "recoveries."

Those are just "for example" numbers, but the point is it is faster to die from it than to recover even if 99% will recover.

Like the other thread where someone was upset that "the USA now has the most cases" there are reasons for these numbers.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
ams288
March 27th, 2020 at 6:44:42 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

What we don't have is enough evidence to know how many people have had a mild case and recovered. They're doing all of this blind without that information.



To me this is THE MOST IMPORTANT point that people are not factoring in.
My sister has a husband and three sons. Oldest son is Med Student in New Jersey. Over the past three weeks they have been taking turns getting sick. The Med Student, a Ďfoodieí, had been bitching that he canít taste anything. The husband had a one day high fever but it was gone in 24 hours. The other sons both had some mild illness for a couple of days. My sister had nothing, until yesterday when she spiked a fever to 102.
They happen to live across the road from the famous NJ family that all got very sick.
Unless my sister gets sicker, NONE of the five of them will have been tested. But most likely ALL five of them will have had it. So the death rate does not and WILL NOT include them. I still think in the US if you are under 60 with no significant medical problems your chance of dying is less than 1%, probably significantly less.
Another thing, many of the elderly that are succumbing have DNR orders, meaning that if sick enough to need a ventilator, they are allowed to die instead.
But even if death rate is .5%, that is huge. 1out of 200 is not odds I want to take.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 27th, 2020 at 8:08:43 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

To me this is THE MOST IMPORTANT point that people are not factoring in.


That is usually the way it goes. Uncertainty.
Consider a "flu vaccine": If a person gets the vaccine and dies, that is a failure whereas a person who gets the vaccine then get sick and then recovers may have benefited from antibodies that conferred sufficient time to crank his immune system into high gear.

Loss of taste is a major indicator suffered by each of my two Corona Cruise Ship friends and indi cates depletion of vitamin C and Zinc stores, but is certainly not definitive.

I am being discharged today but they have significant concern about my 'prison pallor' and disappointing hemoglobin values. For a variety of reasons, I won't be able to afford to seek any care if I have a relapse or any other health care concerns.

One of my "Pushers" was noticeably sniffling. Did I get exposed to something? Time will tell.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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March 27th, 2020 at 9:05:57 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I will bet you aNY amount of money they are not. the trajectory of infections will have nevada likely at the peak of infections around then so name a geographic area and propose how much you want to bet. I'll let you win if even 80% are open.



My casino sent out a memo last night saying we are now closed through April 30 and all employees will be paid, including average tips, through that date. Any closure past that date will be re-evaluated for continued pay to employees.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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March 27th, 2020 at 9:51:11 AM permalink
This virus eats lungs out. People on ventilators that are cranked to 11 are foaming pink stuff (blood) while they drown from fluid in their lungs. It should be treated as a hazardous material. None of our healthcare workers are dressed up like the Chinese healthcare workers of China with hazmat suits. Most of our healthcare workers will come down with this disease in short order, and in NYC the police and firemen will too. NYC will be getting more 911 calls per day, everyday, than on 9/11/01, because of the sickness; and that's even with nearly everybody off the streets and taxi/Uber/Lyft service down 90%.
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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March 27th, 2020 at 11:14:46 AM permalink
Are there any casinos open anywhere in the US?
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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March 27th, 2020 at 11:28:34 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

Are there any casinos open anywhere in the US?


Iím pretty sure they are all shut down.

If thereís an order to shut down....my guess is the only ones who donít have to comply are casinos on Indian reservations. Pretty sure they are all self shut down too.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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March 27th, 2020 at 11:33:23 AM permalink
My sidekick Heather Ferris did an outstanding job of documenting how the various Las Vegas casinos are standing by their employees through this difficult time. I'll just document the grades posted here:

Casino Grade
Venetian A+
Station Casinos A-
Wynn B+
Sahara B
Tropicana B-
D/Golden Gate C+
Plaza C
Cosmo D+
Excalibur D


Source: Casino Closures at Vegas-Aces.com.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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March 27th, 2020 at 11:41:54 AM permalink
Quote: TDVegas

Iím pretty sure they are all shut down.

If thereís an order to shut down....my guess is the only ones who donít have to comply are casinos on Indian reservations. Pretty sure they are all self shut down too.



But there's not an order to shut down everywhere in the US. That's been left to the states, and they've handled it differently. For example, there's no order in South Dakota. Most casinos there have closed, but Royal River and Fort Randall are both still open with extra distancing, extra cleaning, and to-go (back to your machine, anyway) food.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett

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