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AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 15th, 2018 at 5:29:14 AM permalink
Las Vegas home prices most overvalued in US, report says

10 years later and it seems home prices in Vegas are right back where they were. Being in and out of the mortgage industry, trust me when I say that lending standards are not near as lax as 2006-8. But we are getting back to where people are way stretched on debt service. As an outsider, it seems Vegas has an "hourglass distribution" of incomes. Meaning a high and low end making most of it but not so many in the middle.

My question is, how does such a place manage long-term. We all should know about the "moat" of federal lands surrounding the place, making conventional sprawl impossible. Will Vegas eventually just have to have a "serf class" of less skilled workers who will never be able to own their places of residence, always renting?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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June 15th, 2018 at 6:37:28 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Las Vegas home prices most overvalued in US, report says

10 years later and it seems home prices in Vegas are right back where they were. Being in and out of the mortgage industry, trust me when I say that lending standards are not near as lax as 2006-8. But we are getting back to where people are way stretched on debt service. As an outsider, it seems Vegas has an "hourglass distribution" of incomes. Meaning a high and low end making most of it but not so many in the middle.

My question is, how does such a place manage long-term. We all should know about the "moat" of federal lands surrounding the place, making conventional sprawl impossible. Will Vegas eventually just have to have a "serf class" of less skilled workers who will never be able to own their places of residence, always renting?

That's Hawaii, pretty much everyone is homeless, homeless by the definition they couldn't afford to live in a home on their own, because they rent homes with ten people, if not living on a beach.
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DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
June 15th, 2018 at 6:47:22 AM permalink
I disagree with AZDuffman. I think Las Vegas has a majority of middle class citizens. Statistics for wages tend to be biased low because because of so many tipped employees and most studies just look at wages. Although the housing market is booming, it is nowhere near where it was twelve years ago (I would guess still about 20% below).

I am not saying that it is not a bubble, but Vegas economic indicators look great right now for the next few years. The construction industry is booming and raising wages quickly. If anyone wants a construction job and is happy making about $85k a year this is the place to be. Out of state employees are piling in because the local market doesn't have enough skilled workers.
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LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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June 15th, 2018 at 7:28:28 AM permalink
This is an interesting issue.

The housing market is HOT in Asheville, NC, and with good reason. It's a lovely community in a beautiful location. My Asheville real-estate buddy checks every morning for new listings that appear to fit any of her "I-want-to-buy" clients. If she finds one, they try to go immediately. Seeing the new listing at 9 am, and arriving at 10:15 am (for example), gives them a small chance of being first in line with the good-faith deposit. However, wait until 11:45 am, and the house may already be taken by another interested buyer.

But wait, here's more! Apparently, the more affluent out-of-town buyers are increasingly showing up ready to pay cash. So, the seller does not have to wait or fuss with all the paperwork associated with a bank-mortgage closing. So, more and more sellers express a preference to wait for the cash buyer. "But, if I don't sell to a cash buyer today," they say, "I'll call you first this evening, OK?"

And, why does some rich person want a modest family-size house? They can show a profit if they rent the house on AirBnB for only 2 weeks a month (including interest charges from their own, previously established line of credit). This makes it very difficult for the middle-class family to compete, don'cher know?

Vegas might be different. It is certainly different than the rest of America. However, many places are -- in their own special ways -- like Asheville. For the wealthy, who might enjoy having a place to stay on their visits, having a house that pays for itself makes sense. But, woe unto the middle-class family. To answer your question, I don't know how working folks manage in housing situations like Asheville.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 15th, 2018 at 7:43:41 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I disagree with AZDuffman. I think Las Vegas has a majority of middle class citizens. Statistics for wages tend to be biased low because because of so many tipped employees and most studies just look at wages. Although the housing market is booming, it is nowhere near where it was twelve years ago (I would guess still about 20% below).

I am not saying that it is not a bubble, but Vegas economic indicators look great right now for the next few years. The construction industry is booming and raising wages quickly. If anyone wants a construction job and is happy making about $85k a year this is the place to be. Out of state employees are piling in because the local market doesn't have enough skilled workers.



I could be wrong on the distribution, just saying what I see. What I see is a pile of call centers and lower pay service jobs at the bottom and a executive class on top.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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June 15th, 2018 at 7:56:17 AM permalink
I'm just waiting for Oklahoma to become the next hot spot so my property value will skyrocket...

Sometimes I feel like you couldn't GIVE away a house in Oklahoma. I mean, there's probably some good reasons for that, but still.
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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June 15th, 2018 at 8:10:50 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I'm just waiting for Oklahoma to become the next hot spot so my property value will skyrocket...

Sometimes I feel like you couldn't GIVE away a house in Oklahoma. I mean, there's probably some good reasons for that, but still.



My wife and I wanted to move to the OKC area she applied for a job at the hospital (OU Medical Center) and was promptly offered a job at a 40k a year paycut (23%) coming from a city with an equivalent cost of living. So at the end of the day we didn't move to OKC area (Choctaw in particular) and are ending up in either Vegas or Orlando.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 15th, 2018 at 9:07:49 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

I'm just waiting for Oklahoma to become the next hot spot so my property value will skyrocket...

Sometimes I feel like you couldn't GIVE away a house in Oklahoma. I mean, there's probably some good reasons for that, but still.



It was made Indian Territory for a reason. Probably not because of the great amenities.

Don't Drive Into Smoke.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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