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petroglyph
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July 28th, 2019 at 11:05:41 AM permalink
I am the self appointed most pro labor person on this board. And let me tell you how it was [so of course how I think it should be ] I grew up in the 60's and early 70's. A friend visited after making contact with me through the internet that hadn't been in touch for most of over 35 years, we were friends obviously when we were in our youth.

His wife [from China] asked me, "what did you do when you were kids?], and I had to think for a moment, as it's been a long time. My reply was "we worked". That's what we did as kids, everybody I knew had work or jobs. Kids talked at school about their jobs, some better some worse and girls talked about how well they did babysitting.

In the summer, very early in the morning [in the PNW] old school busses came through the neighborhoods where we kids would be waiting with a sack lunch and soda, to get rides out to the farms to do menial farm labor, where we would be paid once, at the end of harvest. [That is the reason behind summer school vacation, to free up children to help with the crops.

My sister was right beside me, and other girls rode the bus to. I didn't know a kid when I was 12 or so that didn't work. Not full time, or even breaks between jobs, but everybody worked. And all of us kids were proud to have our own money. And with some of that money, most of us kids were charged to purchase at least some of our school clothes. My folks making us work, to this day, I consider one of the most important things they taught me, plus honesty, work ethic etc.

We rode bikes to jobs, when the summer work frenzy was no longer available, we hustled other work, mowing lawns, cleaning, picking nuts and fruit. Lots of work around farms that does not require education, that's why illegals can do it the day after getting here. When I got a little older, I got better jobs that paid minimum wage, and then even better jobs that paid more. But to this day, those earliest lessons about making my own money are still with me. What my parents had done for me was to teach me to take care of myself. They allowed me to learn pride in my work and the pleasure of having my own money to do things I chose. That is what parents first job is, is to teach their children to survive. And part of surviving is providing for yourself.

Labor laws killed all that. I felt sorry for the kids just younger than I, as they were prevented from doing work in one way or other. Mostly safety laws, like safety goggles and hearing protection and moving machinery. But I say, that is wrong. Make work safer, but every job does not need to be a living wage job. Those jobs, that work, is vital to teach generations how to maintain America. Don't look at every bed making job in a motel as a living wage job that's supposed to pay to raise a family, it isn't. But what it is is a possible lesson, or training for someone to learn how to work, and learn that they don't want that job as a career.

Those jobs aren't living wage jobs, those are kids jobs. It isn't an employers responsibility to make living wage jobs for people, it is an employers job to stay in business. It is a parents job to teach children how to provide for themselves. And when there is only one parent or the parent is unable, then the state can step in and guide these young folks to the where's and how's of learning to cope with life on their own.

The problem with an untrained work force like we all know exists, is youngsters have no idea how to work, because they were protected to much or coddled. And that is partly the parents fault, part Hollywood's fault, part unions and a hole bunch of other reasons. But part of the reason America has a labor shortage, part of the reason we have such a huge drug problem, family problem and even divorce problem is, labor laws prevented kids from working and making their own money and learning life skills.

So my solution is, quit worrying about continually raising min wage, as if those jobs were meant to be careers, they weren't. And if they were, than it isn't up to a small business person to provide those jobs. That is socialism. Lets steer the country back towards Capitalism and teach the youth how to provide for themselves. Start before they are 10 by informing them that life isn't free. Teach them enough economics in high school how hard it is to pay back 6 figure student loans. Teach them how to balance a checkbook and do their own taxes. Teach people how to survive without crime and learn how they can improve their opportunity.

And finally, lets consider bringing back the draft, for both sexes. We need to be more like Germany and inform youth that they need to know by the time they graduate high school, and allowing internships, that they are going to either go into some kind of occupation, or be capable of learning in college a way to succeed. For those that those two options haven't given enough direction, they can join the military for more instruction of how to be.

Any mods working now? It would be great to break off this min wage topic in it's own thread before it gets crazy long?
Last edited by: petroglyph on Jul 28, 2019
rxwine
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July 28th, 2019 at 11:56:37 AM permalink
Too many people hate the proliferation of political topics. I suggest just leaving the topic here.
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rxwine
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July 28th, 2019 at 12:20:09 PM permalink
There may be something wrong with the way we provide kids jobs but I donít see any reason to change minimum wage laws for farm work.

Kids almost always have limited options compared to adults in many things. Things should be adjusted for them if it is a problem: not for everyone else.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
AxelWolf
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July 28th, 2019 at 12:28:01 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I guess I could lay off 3 people and out source myself.

We cant have that since that would be 3 less opportunities you would have to boff an employee.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
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July 28th, 2019 at 12:39:52 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

I am the self appointed most pro labor person on this board. And let me tell you how it was [so of course how I think it should be ] I grew up in the 60's and early 70's. A friend visited after making contact with me through the internet that hadn't been in touch for most of over 35 years, we were friends obviously when we were in our youth.

His wife [from China] asked me, "what did you do when you were kids?], and I had to think for a moment, as it's been a long time. My reply was "we worked". That's what we did as kids, everybody I knew had work or jobs. Kids talked at school about their jobs, some better some worse and girls talked about how well they did babysitting.

In the summer, very early in the morning [in the PNW] old school busses came through the neighborhoods where we kids would be waiting with a sack lunch and soda, to get rides out to the farms to do menial farm labor, where we would be paid once, at the end of harvest. [That is the reason behind summer school vacation, to free up children to help with the crops.

My sister was right beside me, and other girls rode the bus to. I didn't know a kid when I was 12 or so that didn't work. Not full time, or even breaks between jobs, but everybody worked. And all of us kids were proud to have our own money. And with some of that money, most of us kids were charged to purchase at least some of our school clothes. My folks making us work, to this day, I consider one of the most important things they taught me, plus honesty, work ethic etc.

We rode bikes to jobs, when the summer work frenzy was no longer available, we hustled other work, mowing lawns, cleaning, picking nuts and fruit. Lots of work around farms that does not require education, that's why illegals can do it the day after getting here. When I got a little older, I got better jobs that paid minimum wage, and then even better jobs that paid more. But to this day, those earliest lessons about making my own money are still with me. What my parents had done for me was to teach me to take care of myself. They allowed me to learn pride in my work and the pleasure of having my own money to do things I chose. That is what parents first job is, is to teach their children to survive. And part of surviving is providing for yourself.

Labor laws killed all that. I felt sorry for the kids just younger than I, as they were prevented from doing work in one way or other. Mostly safety laws, like safety goggles and hearing protection and moving machinery. But I say, that is wrong. Make work safer, but every job does not need to be a living wage job. Those jobs, that work, is vital to teach generations how to maintain America. Don't look at every bed making job in a motel as a living wage job that's supposed to pay to raise a family, it isn't. But what it is is a possible lesson, or training for someone to learn how to work, and learn that they don't want that job as a career.

Those jobs aren't living wage jobs, those are kids jobs. It isn't an employers responsibility to make living wage jobs for people, it is an employers job to stay in business. It is a parents job to teach children how to provide for themselves. And when there is only one parent or the parent is unable, then the state can step in and guide these young folks to the where's and how's of learning to cope with life on their own.

The problem with an untrained work force like we all know exists, is youngsters have no idea how to work, because they were protected to much or coddled. And that is partly the parents fault, part Hollywood's fault, part unions and a hole bunch of other reasons. But part of the reason America has a labor shortage, part of the reason we have such a huge drug problem, family problem and even divorce problem is, labor laws prevented kids from working and making their own money and learning life skills.

So my solution is, quit worrying about continually raising min wage, as if those jobs were meant to be careers, they weren't. And if they were, than it isn't up to a small business person to provide those jobs. That is socialism. Lets steer the country back towards Capitalism and teach the youth how to provide for themselves. Start before they are 10 by informing them that life isn't free. Teach them enough economics in high school how hard it is to pay back 6 figure student loans. Teach them how to balance a checkbook and do their own taxes. Teach people how to survive without crime and learn how they can improve their opportunity.

And finally, lets consider bringing back the draft, for both sexes. We need to be more like Germany and inform youth that they need to know by the time they graduate high school, and allowing internships, that they are going to either go into some kind of occupation, or be capable of learning in college a way to succeed. For those that those two options haven't given enough direction, they can join the military for more instruction of how to be.

Any mods working now? It would be great to break off this min wage topic in it's own thread before it gets crazy long?



I thought child labor laws were due to employers refusing to hire adults when they could pay lower wages to kids.

Thats the goal?

Education should be a priority for kids more than menial low wage work.

Yes, there should be some work ethic instilled, I agree, but better thru school extra curriculum that pays than making employers richer by paying substandard wages.

Finally, while its always understandable that what worked for you in the 1960s (your childhood) is what you find desirable but we live in a technologically different world.

I cant think of one field, including farming, that doesnt have high tech solutions that basically eliminate or lower the work labor force requirements. It is not as simple as just saying let employers hire kids like in the 1960's. Because employers have plenty of technological marvels that negate even the jobs for adults today.

For example, on-line stores that supplement sales at land-based stores with automated pay services. I am sure there hundreds of examples.

And I am certain you are not suggesting employers go back to the technological levels of the 1960's
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
EvenBob
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July 28th, 2019 at 2:21:55 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

My reply was "we worked". That's what we did as kids, everybody I knew had work



I worked digging up onions by the
flat, and riding on a hay wagon
stacking bales. Later I worked
in a car wash. It was the only way
to get money, my parents sure
as hell didn't give us any. Nobodies
parents did.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
petroglyph
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July 28th, 2019 at 2:33:10 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: petroglyph

I am the self appointed most pro labor person on this board. And let me tell you how it was [so of course how I think it should be ] I grew up in the 60's and early 70's. A friend visited after making contact with me through the internet that hadn't been in touch for most of over 35 years, we were friends obviously when we were in our youth.

His wife [from China] asked me, "what did you do when you were kids?], and I had to think for a moment, as it's been a long time. My reply was "we worked". That's what we did as kids, everybody I knew had work or jobs. Kids talked at school about their jobs, some better some worse and girls talked about how well they did babysitting.

In the summer, very early in the morning [in the PNW] old school busses came through the neighborhoods where we kids would be waiting with a sack lunch and soda, to get rides out to the farms to do menial farm labor, where we would be paid once, at the end of harvest. [That is the reason behind summer school vacation, to free up children to help with the crops.

My sister was right beside me, and other girls rode the bus to. I didn't know a kid when I was 12 or so that didn't work. Not full time, or even breaks between jobs, but everybody worked. And all of us kids were proud to have our own money. And with some of that money, most of us kids were charged to purchase at least some of our school clothes. My folks making us work, to this day, I consider one of the most important things they taught me, plus honesty, work ethic etc.

We rode bikes to jobs, when the summer work frenzy was no longer available, we hustled other work, mowing lawns, cleaning, picking nuts and fruit. Lots of work around farms that does not require education, that's why illegals can do it the day after getting here. When I got a little older, I got better jobs that paid minimum wage, and then even better jobs that paid more. But to this day, those earliest lessons about making my own money are still with me. What my parents had done for me was to teach me to take care of myself. They allowed me to learn pride in my work and the pleasure of having my own money to do things I chose. That is what parents first job is, is to teach their children to survive. And part of surviving is providing for yourself.

Labor laws killed all that. I felt sorry for the kids just younger than I, as they were prevented from doing work in one way or other. Mostly safety laws, like safety goggles and hearing protection and moving machinery. But I say, that is wrong. Make work safer, but every job does not need to be a living wage job. Those jobs, that work, is vital to teach generations how to maintain America. Don't look at every bed making job in a motel as a living wage job that's supposed to pay to raise a family, it isn't. But what it is is a possible lesson, or training for someone to learn how to work, and learn that they don't want that job as a career.

Those jobs aren't living wage jobs, those are kids jobs. It isn't an employers responsibility to make living wage jobs for people, it is an employers job to stay in business. It is a parents job to teach children how to provide for themselves. And when there is only one parent or the parent is unable, then the state can step in and guide these young folks to the where's and how's of learning to cope with life on their own.

The problem with an untrained work force like we all know exists, is youngsters have no idea how to work, because they were protected to much or coddled. And that is partly the parents fault, part Hollywood's fault, part unions and a hole bunch of other reasons. But part of the reason America has a labor shortage, part of the reason we have such a huge drug problem, family problem and even divorce problem is, labor laws prevented kids from working and making their own money and learning life skills.

So my solution is, quit worrying about continually raising min wage, as if those jobs were meant to be careers, they weren't. And if they were, than it isn't up to a small business person to provide those jobs. That is socialism. Lets steer the country back towards Capitalism and teach the youth how to provide for themselves. Start before they are 10 by informing them that life isn't free. Teach them enough economics in high school how hard it is to pay back 6 figure student loans. Teach them how to balance a checkbook and do their own taxes. Teach people how to survive without crime and learn how they can improve their opportunity.

And finally, lets consider bringing back the draft, for both sexes. We need to be more like Germany and inform youth that they need to know by the time they graduate high school, and allowing internships, that they are going to either go into some kind of occupation, or be capable of learning in college a way to succeed. For those that those two options haven't given enough direction, they can join the military for more instruction of how to be.

Any mods working now? It would be great to break off this min wage topic in it's own thread before it gets crazy long?



I thought child labor laws were due to employers refusing to hire adults when they could pay lower wages to kids.

Thats the goal?

Quote:

Education should be a priority for kids more than menial low wage work.

They can do both. I pointed out that we all had jobs in high school. Many of us bought our own cars, which taught us not to ruin them, but to take care of what we had worked for. Of course educate our young, but physical work shouldn't be so appalling as it is to many young people today.



Quote:

Yes, there should be some work ethic instilled, I agree, but better thru school extra curriculum that pays than making employers richer by paying substandard wages.

I think teachers should have more input on how to teach. Maybe teachers could also have progress based bonuses? The better the students do, there could be a reward for extra effort by teachers, imo. Quit this common core bullcrap.

Quote:

Finally, while its always understandable that what worked for you in the 1960s (your childhood) is what you find desirable but we live in a technologically different world.

Thank god we do! But the physicalness of being human hasn't completely disappeared. It is extremely popular here to have car washes, and yard care. I am thankful that employers do hire tatted up, gauged up, and probably recorded up people for these extremely hard but low paying occupations. I am aware though of young people that really want an opportunity to make money for their own purposes, and they should be allowed to if possible, first, rather than illegals.

I have two grandkids that are working this summer, and loving it. One is working a commercial setnet fishing site, and will receive a dandy check here in a couple weeks. The other [13] is working for a commercial firewood producer, and he loves having a pocket full of his own money to buy things he wants. They are both top notch students and he is a state wrestling champ. Nothing is obscuring their access to technology or a good education. Just the opposite. But it is a family trait, to not be afraid of physical labor. We have all heard story's of American young people [18+] who's first employment horrified them, and their employer, at their lack of ability, vigor, and dedication, regardless of pay rate.

I don't think a job that only requires the skills of say washing a car, should be written into law as paying a "living wage". A 10 year old should possess enough skills to clean an automobile. That shouldn't be their career goal. Just the opposite. They should get experience at lousy jobs, so they know better than to settle their lives below their ability's. Bring back capitalism. Barring young people from work they are capable of doing, extra curricular, isn't what made America the most sought after destination in the world. Preventing them from realizing their goals is communism, or some kind of ism other than capital.

Quote:

I cant think of one field, including farming, that doesnt have high tech solutions that basically eliminate or lower the work labor force requirements. It is not as simple as just saying let employers hire kids like in the 1960's. Because employers have plenty of technological marvels that negate even the jobs for adults today.

I'm sure you can think of good ways to help our youth achieve their potential. My point is to allow them that chance, if it can be done responsibly. Yes, education is a priority. Young folks getting it their head that they will have to provide for themselves if able, is also a priority. We need to be real about it.

Quote:

...And I am certain you are not suggesting employers go back to the technological levels of the 1960's

Of course not. I am at the stage where anything physical is grueling for me. I will gladly pay a generous amount to someone for honest housekeeping. But it is really hard to find people willing to do that work, which I think is much more suited to an American teen, cash payment. I shouldn't have to register as an employer with the state and carry all kinds of insurance etc.

I also have no problem with people that are receiving benefits, also working properly on the side. I know people that are receiving SSDI benefits are allowed to make 900$ per month and still collect disability. It's fine with me that folks that are on welfare or other programs be allowed to work, less than full time jobs to supplement a life of poverty on the side. That will benefit the country's economy as those folks are most likely to spend it when they get it. That is why many are afraid to come out of the shadow's is because they can't afford to lose their health benny's or ebt or whatever. They are either going to do it under the table and damage people like Boz, or they can come out in the open and maybe decide by working they can improve their lives enough to want to do it full time. We shouldn't punish people for working. It really isn't that distasteful once you get used to it.

"A job provides much more than just a paycheck" petro
petroglyph
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July 28th, 2019 at 2:34:34 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I worked digging up onions by the
flat, and riding on a hay wagon
stacking bales. Later I worked
in a car wash. It was the only way
to get money, my parents sure
as hell didn't give us any. Nobodies
parents did.

And I am pretty sure you didn't resent it, and still don't.

People don't respect what they don't earn.
EvenBob
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July 28th, 2019 at 4:30:27 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

And I am pretty sure you didn't resent it, and still don't.



Never thought about it, all the kids
I knew had jobs. I took care of a
rich lawyers estate for 2 summers
when I was 15. Cleaning the pool,
mowing the big yard (hand push
mower) clipping the bushes. The
maid would bring me lunch out
by the pool.

When I was 15 I had a moped and
it was great help in getting around.
What a blast to ride when you're a
kid.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
GWAE
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July 28th, 2019 at 6:08:52 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I'm obviously in favor of there being some sort of minimum wage, but I completely agree with your argument vis-a-vis a drastic and immediate increase to minimum wage. It's going to be difficult for anyone to increase the wages of such workers (as a percentage) commensurate with the percentage increase to the minimum wage. While that happens, base goods (the labor providing which often goes to minimum wage level employees---think grocery stores) would have to increase in order to keep profits consistent for the employer.

My concern for your employees would be that the increase to prices, as a percentage, would increase by a greater amount than the increase to their current wages. If that were to happen, they would end up being worse off despite the fact that they technically make more money. Even then, now you have to start think tax brackets and things of that nature which effectively serve to reduce the percentage increase in what they are earning.



That's precisely what would happen here in the event of a complete absence of minimum wage. Jobs would simply go to the lowest bidder who is competent to do the job. Not completely starving is better than completely starving. With that, you would see a very fast sprint to the bottom as far as employee earnings are concerned.



I do agree there needs to be a min wage or it would be a race to the bottom. What I don't agree with is that the min wage needs to be enough to be a "livable" wage for a family. These min wage jobs really should be second jobs, extra income, kids jobs, or something like those. If I am not skilled enough to make a livable wage in my area then those people should be looking in the mirror to figure out how or what they can become skilled in to make more money.

I wish there was a way to scale back everything. Reverse all inflation and go back to 1980 prices. Lately I have been watching a lot of 1980s game shows on a channel called Buzzr or something on Pluto. Just watched card sharks where people were winning $800-$2500 and they were happy. On the concentration game someone won a trip to bahamas and it was valued at $2600.

I think there should also be a way to cap all incomes. There is no reason someone needs to make $250 million a year. If high end income was capped then prices could be reduced or people on the bottom could make more.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
petroglyph
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July 28th, 2019 at 7:03:18 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I wish there was a way to scale back everything. Reverse all inflation and go back to 1980 prices.....

There is, and it's simple. Ron Paul tried to get it started, Tulsi Gabbard has mentioned it also.

All it takes is honest money. Or constitutional money, ie the gold standard. Which does not mean there needs to be an ounce of gold stored in Fort Knox for every dollar in print. But none of these wars could happen if they had to be paid for with real money.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/jfk-killed-after-trying-shut-down-rothschilds-us-1963-bryan


President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation.
tringlomane
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July 28th, 2019 at 7:13:19 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

My position is that eliminating minimum wage laws will have virtually no impact -- market value for vast majority of labor is already over minimum wage. Most businesses that try to claim the government is hurting them with these laws are much more likely to be hurting themselves by relying on a business model that can't afford $7.25 per hour.



Yeah, the federal government has passed the buck on minimum wage for so long that the market now dictates the minimum wage in $7.25 states. I can't recall any business in recent years advertising they were hiring at just the minimum even in states with moderately higher minimums like $8+.
EvenBob
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July 28th, 2019 at 9:36:39 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I think there should also be a way to cap all incomes. There is no reason someone needs to make $250 million a year.



Welcome to communism/socialism. The
reason is, they WANT to make that much,
which is all the reason they need. It's
not up to the gov't to decide what a
person 'needs' in their lives. Once
you start down that road you soon
have a society ripe for rebellion and
revolution.

This was all tried with dismal results in
the old USSR. People were fitted into
jobs they didn't want, where they could
never be fired, never own a business
that made more than a living wage,
never live in anything but shoddy gov't
housing. Everything was equal; equally
crappy. At any given time of day in
any factory, 40% of the workers were
legally drunk on vodka, trying to earn
enough to make a down payment on
the one car they could buy, a piece
of crap gov't made jalopy that broke
down every 200 miles and would barely
start in the winter with a heater that
never worked.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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July 28th, 2019 at 10:39:01 PM permalink
One measure equals the equivalent of the old USSR? Probably not.

I no longer believe there is any simplistic answer to running the US. It is likely a combination of several --isms. Thinking it is simplistic is the first mistake. The only potential simple answers are to simple things.
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RS
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July 29th, 2019 at 1:24:38 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I do agree there needs to be a min wage or it would be a race to the bottom. What I don't agree with is that the min wage needs to be enough to be a "livable" wage for a family. These min wage jobs really should be second jobs, extra income, kids jobs, or something like those. If I am not skilled enough to make a livable wage in my area then those people should be looking in the mirror to figure out how or what they can become skilled in to make more money.

I wish there was a way to scale back everything. Reverse all inflation and go back to 1980 prices. Lately I have been watching a lot of 1980s game shows on a channel called Buzzr or something on Pluto. Just watched card sharks where people were winning $800-$2500 and they were happy. On the concentration game someone won a trip to bahamas and it was valued at $2600.

I think there should also be a way to cap all incomes. There is no reason someone needs to make $250 million a year. If high end income was capped then prices could be reduced or people on the bottom could make more.


Uhhhhh.... No. Thatís a terrible idea. There should absolutely never ever be a cap on how much someone can earn.
MaxPen
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July 29th, 2019 at 1:32:58 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I do agree there needs to be a min wage or it would be a race to the bottom. What I don't agree with is that the min wage needs to be enough to be a "livable" wage for a family. These min wage jobs really should be second jobs, extra income, kids jobs, or something like those. If I am not skilled enough to make a livable wage in my area then those people should be looking in the mirror to figure out how or what they can become skilled in to make more money.

I wish there was a way to scale back everything. Reverse all inflation and go back to 1980 prices. Lately I have been watching a lot of 1980s game shows on a channel called Buzzr or something on Pluto. Just watched card sharks where people were winning $800-$2500 and they were happy. On the concentration game someone won a trip to bahamas and it was valued at $2600.

I think there should also be a way to cap all incomes. There is no reason someone needs to make $250 million a year. If high end income was capped then prices could be reduced or people on the bottom could make more.



Prices remained pretty stable before the creation of the Federal Reserve. Savers weren't punished and inflation was pretty much non existent. Getting completely off the gold standard in the 70's really accelerated things for the worse. Hold on, because you might see the $1000 chicken sooner than later in your lifetime. Everyone is going to need $250 million a year just to survive. Our system today is inflate or die.
Mission146
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July 29th, 2019 at 5:43:52 AM permalink
Mueller gave a report, Mueller testified in two Congressional hearings as to the contents of that report, so let's see whether or not it significantly changed the betting market for impeachment/removal from office:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/mueller-and-trump-betting/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Keyser
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July 29th, 2019 at 9:51:08 AM permalink
The betting market was wildly off last time. I don't think I'd put much faith into it's ability to predict the election. There was way too much emotion and manipulation in it to be accurate.
Mission146
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July 29th, 2019 at 9:58:48 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

The betting market was wildly off last time. I don't think I'd put much faith into it's ability to predict the election.



Could be, the article speaks mainly to the betting markets for impeachment, removal from office, Trump to be President at the end of 2019 and Trump to complete his first term. As one would expect, these markets have the first two events as extremely unlikely and the last two as extremely likely, but I think there is still a little bit of value to be found.

I do touch briefly on the Election markets. The first is that Trump is extremely likely (obviously) to become the Republican nominee for 2020, but again, I think there is still a little bit of value on the binaries in taking the, "Yes." I also refer to the binaries on a Democrat vs. a Republican becoming President in 2020, (55% to 47%---or maybe 48%---as I recall). It's a YES/NO proposition, so these are treated as two different binaries as a third-party candidate (not happening) would resolve in a NO in both cases.

Personally, I think it's a bit early to speculate on what party will win the Presidency prior to knowing who Trump's opponent will be, but in the article I do take a look at the performance ratings of past presidents in reelection bids and how they have performed. The short answer is, in the absence of a third-party candidate to take a substantial percentage of the popular vote (not likely in 2020) or a wildly popular opposing candidate, recent presidents have generally slightly outperformed their approval ratings in popular vote.

Trump would obviously need to, given an approval rating in the low 40's, and the fact that he only took 46.1% of the popular vote in 2016 despite going up against an extremely unpopular candidate.

Anyway, I encourage you to give the article a read and leave a comment if you haven't. I tried to present the facts as neutrally as possible, and in the case of impeachment/removal etc., it's almost entirely favorable to Trump because the facts of the matter are almost entirely favorable to Trump.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EvenBob
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July 29th, 2019 at 10:54:59 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Could be, the article speaks mainly to the betting markets for impeachment



This whole impeachment thing
baffles me and Nancy Pelosi.
She knows it's a ridiculous waste
of time, they have no high crime
to impeach him on. She went
thru this with Clinton and there
WAS a crime there. Still a waste
of time, Clinton's favorability
was highest during his impeachment
and no way was that senate going
to get rid of him, or this senate
getting rid of Trump.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
GWAE
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July 30th, 2019 at 9:01:23 PM permalink
I am never up late enough to watch Colbert. Have seen 2 shows lately. Both of them were all trump. Is he always like this?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
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July 30th, 2019 at 10:03:30 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I am never up late enough to watch Colbert. Have seen 2 shows lately. Both of them were all trump. Is he always like this?


I don't watch Colbert because it's dumb, but occasionally I'll see Colbert video recommendations on YouTube and it's all anti-Trump AFAICT.
billryan
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July 31st, 2019 at 10:59:04 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Letís say I run a small business and Iím putting in 60-70 hour weeks. Iím doing pretty well and looking to expand. So Iím looking for help. I find two people who are willing to work 40 hours a week for $10/hr. Thatís going to cost me $40k a year, but because Iím projected at $120k net, Iím now going to make $80k and be able to expand my business. I can live off $30-40k and pump the other $40-50k into expansion. Once I get it up and running, allís good.

Oh but wait, even though I and the potential employees ALL AGREE on paying them $10/hr, the government says ďno, you gotta pay $20/hrĒ or another way ďyouíre not allowed to work for that cheapĒ.

So now my business canít expand, those people donít have a job, and consumers who enjoy my business are also going to miss out since I canít expand to reach more consumers.



Why pay any of them $10? Get a dozen people to bid on the job and 1099 the lowest one. Simple solutions for simple problems. Be like the big boys. Farm out your work. Its the gig economy, use it.
Don't forget - if you hire a transgender refugee, you can undoubtedly find a federal program that will subsidize their employment so you save money by paying them the $20 the gub mandates.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
billryan
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July 31st, 2019 at 11:06:34 AM permalink
I was driving through Cochise County when I came across an interesting building that houses several Federal and state Agencies specifically aimed at people opening up small businesses in rural areas. Those nice people in Washington are more than happy to subsidize new businesses. All you have to do is have the courage and gumption to enter the labyrinth of paperwork needed to get going. Fortunately they even provide paid help in filling out the applications.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
MaxPen
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July 31st, 2019 at 12:18:26 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I was driving through Cochise County when I came across an interesting building that houses several Federal and state Agencies specifically aimed at people opening up small businesses in rural areas. Those nice people in Washington are more than happy to subsidize new businesses. All you have to do is have the courage and gumption to enter the labyrinth of paperwork needed to get going. Fortunately they even provide paid help in filling out the applications.



Atleast noone can accuse you of having a blind eye to a handout.
billryan
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July 31st, 2019 at 5:01:53 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

Atleast noone can accuse you of having a blind eye to a handout.



I'm not sure why you think creating a half dozen jobs in a county with an average income under $35,000 is a handout. I assure you I will get my money's worth out of them, while teaching them a skill they can use to start their own businesses and create their own jobs.
A $1,000 payroll goes about twice as far as it does in Vegas, and the quality of the applicants for PT work as been most impressive .
I've even had a few people volunteer.
Why do you hate capitalism?
Last edited by: billryan on Jul 31, 2019
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
happahero
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August 1st, 2019 at 8:55:28 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Why do you hate capitalism?



Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE) capitalism is the same thing as Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. With one big difference.

We claim to be truly capitalist but we give capitalism a terrible name by mixing in a ton of socialism.

China claims to be socialist but gives socialism a great name because they have mixed in a ton of capitalist characteristics. The reason why they have moved like 400 million people into the middle class over 20 years isnít because of the socialism portion. Back when they were truly socialist everyone cept Mao was starving.

People love to point out how capitalism is failing, we better embrace gov assistance and protections. Itís not capitalism that has failed the USA, the US has failed capitalism.
Dost thou even hoist
billryan
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August 1st, 2019 at 9:09:17 AM permalink
Cant speak for anyone but myself, but I'm most definitely not a pure capitalist. Wouldn't want to be.
No capitalism, no socialism.
Feeding the hungry, defending the weak, sheltering the poor and helping those in need don't need any isms. Nor do they need to be taught in business school. As Harry Chapin taught me years ago- One for me, one for them.
Harry died, but his vision lives on.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Face
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August 1st, 2019 at 10:25:38 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Feeding the hungry, defending the weak, sheltering the poor and helping those in need don't need any isms.



Nor do they generate profit.

NEXT!

Quote: billr

As Harry Chapin taught me years ago- One for me, one for them.



Two for you and one - two for me - Bugs Bunny
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
darkoz
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August 1st, 2019 at 1:27:18 PM permalink
Quote: Face

Nor do they generate profit.



Face gotta disagree with you here.

If anything the poor and needy SPEND way too fast.

Rich don't spend, they invest.

Usually they invest in businesses that get supported by the poor.

Go into a rich neighborhood and what do you see? Lots of woods and country.

Go into a poor neighborhood and you see tons of stores, outlets, restaurants, hair salons, oh and yeah, lotto outlets and casinos.

I would say subsidies for the poor generate plenty of profits
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
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August 1st, 2019 at 3:03:35 PM permalink
What kind of business do you think hurts the poor the most?

Iím not a business person, but Iíd think something like Rent-A-Center would be a pretty good deal. Have someone ďrentĒ a $300 couch for $50/month. Another idea I had is getting into the loan business, where you give someone immediate cash and they get stuck with a 20% monthly interest rate or some such thing.
darkoz
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August 1st, 2019 at 3:13:43 PM permalink
Quote: RS

What kind of business do you think hurts the poor the most?

Iím not a business person, but Iíd think something like Rent-A-Center would be a pretty good deal. Have someone ďrentĒ a $300 couch for $50/month. Another idea I had is getting into the loan business, where you give someone immediate cash and they get stuck with a 20% monthly interest rate or some such thing.



If you are saying rent-a-center hurts the poor we are in Agreement

From your comment I am not sure if you are pro or against rent-a-center.

On average a $300 item will cost $1500 when all is said and done. Its little monthly stabs that turn into a quintupling of the price.

Poor who cant afford it but want the item wind up with 5x less buying power and without realizing it are digging their poverty deeper.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Boz
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August 1st, 2019 at 3:16:21 PM permalink
Quote: RS

What kind of business do you think hurts the poor the most?

Iím not a business person, but Iíd think something like Rent-A-Center would be a pretty good deal. Have someone ďrentĒ a $300 couch for $50/month. Another idea I had is getting into the loan business, where you give someone immediate cash and they get stuck with a 20% monthly interest rate or some such thing.



All good choices but they are capitalism at its finest. They serve a need and wouldnít be in business if the customers were not there. They live off people who made bad choices in life, yet still want material things they canít afford.

Looking at it from the business owner side, he has to cover the cost of those who still wonít pay. They can tell stories of all the people who rent from Aaronís and such right before moving out of state. They never had any intention of paying, only taking advantage of the only company who would give them credit.

While there are some who are good people with bad credit due to unfortunate situations, the majority of the customers using these businesses are bad risks. And have a history of stiffing creditors and understand the game clearly.
billryan
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August 1st, 2019 at 3:47:46 PM permalink
I rented furniture in the 1980s and it wasn't all that bad. When I was moving here , I stopped by Aaron's and was shocked at the outrageous prices. The manager seemed like a nice enough guy, so I suggested he go into a less sleazy business like selling time shares.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
MaxPen
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August 1st, 2019 at 4:49:16 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I rented furniture in the 1980s and it wasn't all that bad. When I was moving here , I stopped by Aaron's and was shocked at the outrageous prices. The manager seemed like a nice enough guy, so I suggested he go into a less sleazy business like selling time shares.



You obviously missed the special SALE. 4 free hubcaps and week supply of ribeyes with 6 mo. couch rental.
Boz
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August 1st, 2019 at 4:59:04 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

You obviously missed the special SALE. 4 free hubcaps and week supply of ribeyes with 6 mo. couch rental.



Billy missed mentioning that the customers are forced to pay 6x the price for 65 inch TV they ďneedĒ.

Perhaps the guy driving people around to sign up for free benefits should teach a class showing these deadbeats why they shouldnít buy things they canít afford and the value of paying your bills on time.

The liberal will always point out the guy who had his credit ruined by no fault of his own instead of the thousand who just decided paying their debt wasnít worth the hassle.
Steverinos
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August 1st, 2019 at 5:11:09 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

instead of the thousand who just decided paying their debt wasnít worth the hassle.


You're not describing the self proclaimed King of Debt are you?
rxwine
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August 1st, 2019 at 6:28:48 PM permalink
I was reading about the PayDay loan industry with it's 800percent interest rates, The only high risk thing to me sounds like someone might shut down their gold mine, as it is a 90 billion dollar industry according to what I read. Doesn't look like they have that much of a problem making their money.

But then any one who has looked at a typical credit card account knows the justification for moving a low interest rate into double digits is just one late payment. Really? That's the justification for high risk customer? Looks pretty shameless to me.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
SOOPOO
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August 3rd, 2019 at 3:45:32 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I was reading about the PayDay loan industry with it's 800percent interest rates, The only high risk thing to me sounds like someone might shut down their gold mine, as it is a 90 billion dollar industry according to what I read. Doesn't look like they have that much of a problem making their money.

But then any one who has looked at a typical credit card account knows the justification for moving a low interest rate into double digits is just one late payment. Really? That's the justification for high risk customer? Looks pretty shameless to me.



Then do not give that company your business! I'm sure it is in the terms of getting the card. No one is forcing anyone to have a credit card!

I am all for the PayDay loan people being allowed to continue to operate, as long as they are not willfully deceiving their customers. Let the adults who want their money sooner decide for themselves if paying back double what they get is worth it to them. We allow the government to sell them tickets which are worth 50% of what they cost, why not allow private businesses the same ?
rxwine
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August 3rd, 2019 at 4:26:52 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Then do not give that company your business! I'm sure it is in the terms of getting the card. No one is forcing anyone to have a credit card!

I am all for the PayDay loan people being allowed to continue to operate, as long as they are not willfully deceiving their customers. Let the adults who want their money sooner decide for themselves if paying back double what they get is worth it to them. We allow the government to sell them tickets which are worth 50% of what they cost, why not allow private businesses the same ?



You're for 18 y/os obtaining a mountain of college student debt regardless of ability to pay it back then. (As of early 2019, total student loan debt is approximately 1.52 trillion and growing. )

Or you'd be for the major cause of the recession, people getting over their heads in housing payments again, because we know enough people will go for it?

I realize punishment is a good teacher, but seems like an awful ideas to me to just encourage it.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
gamerfreak
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August 3rd, 2019 at 6:07:20 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Poor who cant afford it but want the item wind up with 5x less buying power and without realizing it are digging their poverty deeper.


And even before that, they will take their paychecks/govt checks to a convenience store and cash them for a 5% fee.
billryan
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August 3rd, 2019 at 6:16:59 AM permalink
I think it is damn nice for millionaires to offer their poorer cousins financial advice. Don't use payday loan services.
Do what successful people do. If all else fails, just borrow a few million from Daddy like our self made man the Prez.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Fleaswatter
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August 3rd, 2019 at 7:35:50 AM permalink
As Democrats debated without mentioning federal judges, the Senate confirmed 13 more Trump nominees

I quote parts:

Quote:

The presidentís ability to nominate judges to lifetime appointments on the federal courts never came up during the two nights of debate this week involving the Democratic candidates.

Over those same two days, the Senate confirmed 13 of President Trumpís judicial nominees, giving Republicans a remarkable 144 judicial appointments since his inauguration and allowing him to reshape the courts and their decisions for decades, filling them with conservative jurists.

Trump has now surpassed Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Obama in getting judges confirmed by the August recess of his third year in office, according to Russell Wheeler, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and president of the nonpartisan Governance Institute, a think tank focused on inter-branch relations.

(emphasis in quote is mine)


US Senate Roll Call Votes

Hmmm, look at who were absent during the votes and DID NOT VOTE at all: Booker (D-NJ), Gillibrand (D-NY), Harris (D-CA), Klobuchar (D-MN), Sanders (I-VT) and Warren (D-MA).
I guess they were too busy making fools of themselves on CNN during the "clown show" (debates) to do the job they were elected for and being paid to do.
new motto for the left: ďI don't know if I received bad information, but I think I suspected there was more than there actually was,Ē (John Brennan Mar 25, 2019)
gamerfreak
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August 3rd, 2019 at 8:17:07 AM permalink
Quote: Fleaswatter

Hmmm, look at who were absent during the votes and DID NOT VOTE at all: Booker (D-NJ), Gillibrand (D-NY), Harris (D-CA), Klobuchar (D-MN), Sanders (I-VT) and Warren (D-MA).
I guess they were too busy making fools of themselves on CNN during the "clown show" (debates) to do the job they were elected for and being paid to do.


Lol, this is such a lazy argument that everyone loves to selectively point out when itís the opposite side, and ignore when itís the side they agree with.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2016/senate/missed-votes
billryan
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August 3rd, 2019 at 8:40:05 AM permalink
Sadly, it's much easier to drag people down to ones level than it is to rise to theirs.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Fleaswatter
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August 3rd, 2019 at 10:21:32 AM permalink
Quote: gamerfreak

Lol, this is such a lazy argument that everyone loves to selectively point out when itís the opposite side, and ignore when itís the side they agree with.



I learned this from liberals.
new motto for the left: ďI don't know if I received bad information, but I think I suspected there was more than there actually was,Ē (John Brennan Mar 25, 2019)
gamerfreak
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August 3rd, 2019 at 7:10:24 PM permalink
Quote: Fleaswatter

I learned this from liberals.


If you dislike liberals so much, why would you mimic their behavior and argument?
ams288
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August 4th, 2019 at 8:50:18 PM permalink


😂😂😂
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
SanchoPanza
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August 4th, 2019 at 9:42:22 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



😂😂😂

Sickest joke of the year, playing off a man's lifelong disability. Have you no feeling for somebody who has overcome so much to make something constructive of his life?
SanchoPanza
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August 4th, 2019 at 9:43:49 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Sadly, it's much easier to drag people down to ones level than it is to rise to theirs.

Proof of that is right in this thread on this page.
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