Poll

12 votes (44.44%)
2 votes (7.4%)
3 votes (11.11%)
19 votes (70.37%)

27 members have voted

GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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February 1st, 2018 at 6:57:14 PM permalink
Well damn, you never mentioned she was prego. Take any advise and throw it out the window because as you know there is no way you can win right now.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
KevinAA
KevinAA
Joined: Jul 6, 2017
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February 2nd, 2018 at 5:03:57 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Well damn, you never mentioned she was prego. Take any advise and throw it out the window because as you know there is no way you can win right now.



It means LESS money for gambling. It doesn't mean ZERO money for gambling (unless one has zero discretionary income after having another baby).
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 3rd, 2018 at 1:05:55 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

machine play is boring. rote memorization. the same thing over and over again.

a horse race is a puzzle. each race is a new and different puzzle. most you can't figure out. a few you can.

some of the best will just pass on the ones they can't figure or bet very small just to pass the time. and then plunge deeply on the ones they can figure out.

from your comment it sounds like you think all horse players are losers.

if I'm right and that is what you think - you are very badly mistaken my friend. very, very badly mistaken.



Whether it's 99.99% or merely 99%, this is mostly an illusion. They are thinking about things and trying to figure things out, but there's no real connection between their thoughts and how the puzzle is solved. Much like people who try to "solve the puzzle" of which side will win in baccarat with their pens and cards, or try to decipher what the future holds by interpreting omens or patterns in the stars.

Quote: Wizard

My opinion is why give up an addiction if it isn't hurting you or anybody else? In other words, addictions are not necessarily bad. I'm somewhat of a fitness buff but have met people I think are addicted to it. Goes to show you can be addicted to good things.

My layman's opinion is I don't see a problem with the gambling. If the question is can you make it 30 days, my answer is who cares as long as you are gambling in moderation.



Disagree. I don't think it's a big problem, But as Fins indicated, it is satisfying to know that you control your appetites, not the other way around. I'm also not sure it's usually that compartmentalized. Are there a lot of people who can't control a single addiction, but are disciplined, balanced and happy in all other areas?

Anyway, Fins proved to himself that he can indulge in moderation and turn it off when he wants. Good for him.

Going forward, it's tricky. Because you COULD make a rational argument and say, suppose I become a film buff and I go to the movies every weekend instead of the track and I buy a couple blue rays each month. That's going to cost X. This costs Y. Y is 10% of X.

But this has nothing to do with rationality. It's just one of those times where you think, "being gay would have its perks."

Is this all about money, or is it also about you having an interest in and spending time and money on something that isn't her?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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February 3rd, 2018 at 1:21:07 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

They are thinking about things and trying to figure things out, but there's no real connection between their thoughts and how the puzzle is solved.




Incorrect. In many horse races those who know can point out the strongest horse and the weakest horse and the strongest horse will beat the weakest horse 85% of the time. That's not nearly enough to become a long term winner. Many other things are necessary. I just made the comment to point out how very wrong you are. You shouldn't run your mouth about horse racing dude. You don't know anything about horse racing. You're like a guy who is very successful in an office supply business. So he goes to a party and starts lecturing people about the oil business which he knows almost nothing about.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Feb 3, 2018
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 3rd, 2018 at 5:06:46 AM permalink
Yeah, and everybody knows Tom Brady is a better QB than Nick Foles and that 7 comes more than 10. This knowledge does little to nothing to help you win because it is baked into the odds. It does provide material for people to talk about, and it gives them things to think about to create the illusion that they are solving a puzzle.

There are thousands of them walking around in Vegas right now, cooking up different narratives to support their bets. They have a lot of fun doing it. This is why many of them prefer sports to something like slots. Much of the information they will use is correct. They might follow football very closely and know a lot about it.

None of this has much to do with solving the puzzle of placing winning bets on the SB.

I've done the same thing placing my $2 bets at the track, btw. I read about the horses and try to figure out which one to bet on. I know I'm fooling myself, but it's fun.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:13:36 AM permalink
There are people who can make money year after year betting horses.

There are plenty of times when there are promotions that make bets +ev.

There is lots of skill in contests and you can get an advantage on fellow players.

Some people know what they are doing, some don't. It's not like playing baccarat.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster 
Joined: May 8, 2015
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:21:49 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

to create the ILLUSION that they are solving a puzzle. None of this has much to do with solving the puzzle of placing winning bets on the SB.




IMHO I would agree with you that there is no edge to be found on the moneyline or spread in the SB. but a talented sports bettor will find other games during the season where he does perceive an edge and can profit from his perception. the same is true of horse racing. it's true that there are very few who can do this but there are some. some, who are not quite as good as that might be good enough to about break even which for them means free entertainment. horse racing has a big advantage and a big disadvantage compared to a traditional sports bet. the vig is much more in racing. but there is often confusion with 10 horses in a field and a large % of casual bettors making their decision in only a few minutes. confusion that can be taken advantage of . there's no confusion when the the Steelers play the Ravens. none at all. you said, "this knowledge does little to nothing to help you win because it is baked into the odds." that is true in the example I gave. but not every useful piece of info is baked into the odds every single time. no market is 100% efficient. anyway, to sum up, if a person has dreams of beating racing, it's not impossible, but it would probably be one of the most difficult things he ever tried in his life.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:45:16 AM permalink
Yeah, I agree it can be done.

What I said was, as with sports, 99% of people have no real shot beyond getting lucky. But they have the illusion that they are solving the puzzle.
djatc
djatc
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
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February 3rd, 2018 at 7:54:32 AM permalink
I was near a sportsbook yesterday, heres a highlight quote:

"Betting the pats, I'm not betting against Bradley"

Probably why the favorites are juiced to hell
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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January 1st, 2019 at 10:40:07 AM permalink
Itís time for another no gamble January.

I usually place some kind of wager or play a contest 4 times a week, so itís an adjustment.

I learned last year that it was easier than I thought itíd be. Pretty much after one weekend of not gambling, I donít think about it.

I hate passing up +ev opportunities. But I learned that they do come around often, and missing a couple is not a big deal.

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