Bitcoin to hit $500,000 mark by 2030?
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56 members have voted
Off to warm up some cocoa.
Well. that's me done. Goodnight all. Sweet dreams.Quote: OnceDearIt's late here. I think I'll go to bed when it crosses through $14,000
Off to warm up some cocoa.
Good luck Zenking.
Quote: OnceDearWell. that's me done. Goodnight all. Sweet dreams.
Good luck Zenking.
Just watch the massive retrace about to occur. Bitcoin is so predictable. Watch ane learn
By the way, im in no way hoping for you to lose money, just giving my .02 cents. If I was in your position id seriously consider selling 75% of your holdings soon and just letting the rest ride for free
Quote: RSYou say it's going to go down -- what do you mean exactly by this? If it goes down $1k, will you claim victory? What're your predictions?
Its going to drop by at least 50%. Long term trend will still go up though. Im not in the same boat with others saying it will crash for good or that it's a bubble ready to pop.
Sincerest Thanks ZK. I had been considering doing just that. However, I'm now firmly of a mind that it was a very bad idea . . . Simply because you espoused it.Quote: ZenKinGWatch ane learn
By the way, im in no way hoping for you to lose money, just giving my .02 cents. If I was in your position id seriously consider selling 75% of your holdings soon and just letting the rest ride for free
not disputing that sharp people can make lots of money
the thing moves up 50% in just a couple of days
what if it starts going up 400% overnight?
or 1800% in a week?
it's really absurd
can't quite wrap my head about what is going on
the world could soon be divided into 2 groups
those who became millionaires (or billionaires) off of bitcoin
and those who didn't
We are way past that point.Quote: lilredroosterat what point does the whole thing just become ridiculous?
And lucky ones, too, I hope. I already know I'm a lucky tit and sharp as a blunt pin. :o)Quote:not disputing that sharp people can make lots of money
Maybe Zenking will start to put his money where his mouth is, get skin in the game, and start shorting it.Quote:what if it starts going up 400% overnight?
or 1800% in a week?
It already is. But it's a volatile situation.Quote:the world could soon be divided into 2 groups
those who became millionaires (or billionaires) off of bitcoin
and those who didn't
I don't care if/when it rockets or crashes. But I do have skin in the game and I'm amused by the ride. That's all I can ask.
Quote: OnceDearIt's late here. I think I'll go to bed when it crosses through $14,000
Off to warm up some cocoa.
I think I'll go to bed when it reaches $20,000
:o)
For the record I did partially uninvest today. But not nearly to the extent suggested by top investment guru ZenKing.
I might blame him and Wizard if they just keep rising.
But no regrets.
$:o)
Quote: OnceDear
I might blame him and Wizard if they just keep rising.
That's a good plan!!!! I always blame the jockey when my horse loses.
It's never MY fault. no way ...........that can't be right
Quote: RSThat is literally the worst show. Ever. Now I'm upset just thinking about it.
People still watch network TV sitcoms? Wow....
The cost to mine a bitcoin is currently 552.00-1567.00 depending whose numbers you use and the country of origin for the mining operation. I will disregard these numbers and use a cost of 5k to purchase a mining rig capable of producing .2 bitcoins per day and assume an astronomical 1k electricity cost per coin.
Wow....6k cost (4× actual on the high end) and you can hedge out any and all risk at 15 or will it be 20k? That is the best arbitration opportunity ever. Any major miner that doesn't hedge out all next years forecasted production and head to the beach is crazy.
Plus every sane miner in the world will buy every rig they can get their hands on, plug rig in, hedge expected production, rinse, and repeat until price drops eliminating the arbitrage opportunity. This is essentially free money for anyone who understands the mining process.
If I had bitcoin I would definitely be unloading into this vertical rally. However, this is coming from someone who has never owned a BTC because it has never made any sense to me.
The thing that scares me most is, historically all recessions and depressions have been preceded by a mania.
I put the value of BTC in the 1000-3000 range.
I sold 25% of a Wizcoin to a friend on Oct 18 for $1345. Just now I invoked my buy-back option at a price of $17285 for a whole Wizcoin, so 1/4 is $4321.25. My loss is thus $2976.25.
In the 50 days it was out, Bitcoin went up by 321.3% or 2.36% per day.
This will probably go down as the worst bet/investment I ever made.
Okay, now the bubble will pop.
I think you dodged a bullet with me.Quote: WizardI can't take it any longer.
I sold 25% of a Wizcoin to a friend on Oct 18 for $1345. Just now I invoked my buy-back option at a price of $17285 for a whole Wizcoin, so 1/4 is $4321.25. My loss is thus $2976.25.
In the 50 days it was out, Bitcoin went up by 321.3% or 2.36% per day.
This will probably go down as the worst bet/investment I ever made.
Okay, now the bubble will pop.
July 14th, 2017 at 11:26:46 PMpermalink
I'M a buyer of 2 Wizcoins at $1985.
Lock it in Mike.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
QUOTE
REPLY
AxelWolf AxelWolfJoined:Oct 10, 2012Threads: 117Posts: 12855July 14th, 2017 at 11:32:21 PMpermalink
Quote: AxelWolf
I'M a buyer of 2 Wizcoins at $1985.
Lock it in Mike.
actually , make it anything under 2k.
it didn't pop until March of 2000
one more thought: I think people who are using Bitcoin to pay for stuff, not as a speculation, just love doing so because they feel they are sticking it to the big banks
and it feels so good to do that
and why would anybody bother to go to work if you can just double your money with bitcoin every couple of weeks
take it easy------------------- relax----------------------making money is so easy
Quote: gamerfreakQuote: WizardNo. I have a loose prediction that Bitcoin will be undone by another hypothetical crypto-currency backed by a large corporation or a country. The house of cards may very well fall down before then but eventually a name will get into it and dominate.
I agree that it's a bubble, but I couldn't even begin to predict when/why it will pop.
I see the major issue is that Bitcoin, while being touted as a currency, is only currently only succeeding as an investment, not a currency. You really can't buy much with bitcoin except for drugs or other illegal things. It's market cap won't continue to grow unless it starts being utilized as something beyond an investment fad.
In order for it to be a currency it will need to stabilize. You can't have something going up and down 10-25% a day be accepted as a currency.
If you believe That Bitcoin is a currency ask yourself the following;
Pretend you are negotiating a contract for next years employment. Would you accept a locked in deal for 15k US dollars per month or 1 BTC per month?
Keep in mind, you have no other sources of income, assets to pull from, and your children depend on you for their quality of existence.
Coin exchanges can't even agree to within $2,000 what today's peak price has been. One has it as 17069, another has it as 19697Quote: WizardI can't take it any longer.
I sold 25% of a Wizcoin to a friend on Oct 18 for $1345. Just now I invoked my buy-back option at a price of $17285 for a whole Wizcoin, so 1/4 is $4321.25. My loss is thus $2976.25. . . .
This will probably go down as the worst bet/investment I ever made.
Okay, now the bubble will pop.
I think that implies that there was a problem with liquidity.
Anyway, there does seem to be some resistance to the upside today.
FWIW, I anticipate a fall back and pause to at least 14,000 before it goes significantly further in any direction.
I hope you didn't just do the double whammy of '1: Identify the top of the price chart and 2: Lose the maximum amount possible.' That would indeed go down in history as worst bet ever, and not just your own record.
Additionally, once the regulators get behind it, and they will, this digital currency phenomenon will grow to over a trillion in market value. Once the institutional investors grab their balls and finally start participating in bitcoin, you will see continued growth. There will be some corrections along the way... but it is real.
The Winklevoss twins dont look so stupid anymore, do they?
Block reward halving
Controlled supply
Bitcoins are created each time a user discovers a new block. The rate of block creation is adjusted every 2016 blocks to aim for a constant two week adjustment period (equivalent to 6 per hour.) The number of bitcoins generated per block is set to decrease geometrically, with a 50% reduction every 210,000 blocks, or approximately four years. THE RESULT IS THAT THE NUMBER OF BITCOINS IN EXISTENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 21 MILLION. [2] Speculated justifications for the unintuitive value "21 million" are that it matches a 4-year reward halving schedule; or the ultimate total number of Satoshis that will be mined is close to the maximum capacity of a 64-bit floating point number. Satoshi has never really justified or explained many of these constants."
This means that Bitcoin is much less likely to receive downward pressure from supply/demand issues than a typical commodity such as oranges. A great harvest with no freeze means a great number of oranges with no corresponding increase of orange eaters or orange juice drinkers will cause the price of oranges to go down.
A key issue is whether or not the exchanges succeed in getting more businesses to accept Bitcoin. I believe they have a way to immediately convert Bitcoin to U.S. dollars at the point of sale so that the retailer or business can only lose the small transaction fee. Whether or not they succeed in doing this may ultimately determine if Bitcoin will last and if it will remain strong.
Another key issue is that when Bitcoin opens up on the futures market and possibly on Wall Street there will surely be big players who will short Bitcoin in search of a huge profit. How this will affect the price action is unclear but the dark forces behind investment banks will surely try to manipulate the price. It's likely to be Herbalife times 1,000.
If there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation? The mining process is what fuels BTC's transactions. So, if there are no more BTC to be mined, then people will stop mining (duh), which will bring transactions to a halt, because, well, yeah.
So what am I missing here? I haven't seen this brought up but it seems like a very obvious and big problem down the road.
Quote: RSIf there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation?
I would be interested to know the answer too. However, I read somewhere that Bitcoin cap won't be hit for 100 years or so.
Quote: MaxPenQuote: gamerfreakQuote: WizardNo. I have a loose prediction that Bitcoin will be undone by another hypothetical crypto-currency backed by a large corporation or a country. The house of cards may very well fall down before then but eventually a name will get into it and dominate.
I agree that it's a bubble, but I couldn't even begin to predict when/why it will pop.
I see the major issue is that Bitcoin, while being touted as a currency, is only currently only succeeding as an investment, not a currency. You really can't buy much with bitcoin except for drugs or other illegal things. It's market cap won't continue to grow unless it starts being utilized as something beyond an investment fad.
In order for it to be a currency it will need to stabilize. You can't have something going up and down 10-25% a day be accepted as a currency.
If you believe That Bitcoin is a currency ask yourself the following;
Pretend you are negotiating a contract for next years employment. Would you accept a locked in deal for 15k US dollars per month or 1 BTC per month?
Keep in mind, you have no other sources of income, assets to pull from, and your children depend on you for their quality of existence.
And that’s the issue when 100% of people who own bitcoin own it as an investment with no other use. They’re all going to want a return on their investment soon, probably in US dollars, and probably when the trend starts to dip downwards. So the massive amount of buyers that are driving the price up now are all going to try and unload huge volumes in just as short of time, but to who? Who is going to be trading USD for bitcoin when the stuff is in a downward spiral? The volume of buyers is going to shrink to near nothing, and take the value of bitcoin with it.
Anyway. I talked to my broker yesterday. He's very good, has earned me 31% on my money over 2 years. And he says, bull market through the end of this year, then a massive selloff and corresponding dip in the market Jan + Feb, then a slow recovery above current levels. So if anybody's trying to time any buy/sell, well...he's pretty good.
Freakin spellcheck. Sorry bout that.
Let the record show that I suggest any Bitcoin holders to at least sell some of their position now, while there are buyers at a big price. Then again, I just took a bath fading Bitcoin, so what do I know.
Quote: WizardFor what it is worth, I think the value of Bitcoin is an illusion. While the market cap is almost 300 billion, that wealth doesn't exist. There is no tangible asset as a basis for its value. Okay, I get it that something is worth what you can get somebody else to pay for it. However, this won't work on a macro scale. There is nothing solid here. It is all based on gambling on something that doesn't exist.
I’d argue that by definition no currency has intrinsic value, otherwise it would be a commodity. The thing that makes a currancy valuable is the market’s faith in that currancy.
While obviously not tangible, a bitcoin does represent the amount of energy it took to mine it. Solving the next block in the chain takes, at this point, a significant amount of energy. The cost to mine 1 bitcoin is in the 5 figure range, and that increases everyday as more blocks are solved.
Quote: gamerfreakI’d argue that by definition no currency has intrinsic value, otherwise it would be a commodity. The thing that makes a currancy valuable is the market’s faith in that currancy.
While obviously not tangible, a bitcoin does represent the amount of energy it took to mine it. Solving the next block in the chain takes, at this point, a significant amount of energy. The cost to mine 1 bitcoin is in the 5 figure range, and that increases everyday as more blocks are solved.
Source on the 5 figure remark, please.
Quote: MaxPenSource on the 5 figure remark, please.
Sorry, mining a full block, which is currently 12.5 bitcoins is in the 5 figures.
Depending what you are paying for energy, I think 1 bitcoin is in the $1200-$5000 range right now, considering only computational energy.
Practically it’s likely way more expensive than that. There’s a shortage of mining hardware, so it’s gotten quite expensive. Mining hardware also generates a decent amount of heat, so you have to factor in the cost to cool that space as well.
Quote: RSWhat I don't get is this --
If there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation? The mining process is what fuels BTC's transactions. So, if there are no more BTC to be mined, then people will stop mining (duh), which will bring transactions to a halt, because, well, yeah.
So what am I missing here? I haven't seen this brought up but it seems like a very obvious and big problem down the road.
Technicalities.......lol.......nobody has time to consider such trivial matters.
How much info does one have to supply in order to open a bitcoin wallet?
The more I investigate, the more I become convinced it is a trap. Public ledger of every transaction. Governments wet dream.
However I am a buyer at 1500.00
"The craze has spread so far that, in Korea, bitcoin is trading at a premium of about 23 percent over prevailing international rates."
Another story said that some South Koreans are putting their life savings into it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/bitcoin-frenzy-like-no-other-has-koreans-paying-a-16-premium
Quote: gamerfreakI’d argue that by definition no currency has intrinsic value, otherwise it would be a commodity. The thing that makes a currancy valuable is the market’s faith in that currancy.
You could argue that, but a currency like the USD at least represents the mode of economic exchange in the US. I think to not believe the USD truly holds value would be like saying that the US government is just abstract notion that functions because the vast majority buy into it, which is true.
Quote:While obviously not tangible, a bitcoin does represent the amount of energy it took to mine it. Solving the next block in the chain takes, at this point, a significant amount of energy. The cost to mine 1 bitcoin is in the 5 figure range, and that increases everyday as more blocks are solved.
Okay, good point. However, it takes that much energy only because so many people are mining. I could give out a WoVcoin to anyone who cleaned my house but it wouldn't make it worth anything.
Quote: Wizard
Okay, good point. However, it takes that much energy only because so many people are mining. I could give out a WoVcoin to anyone who cleaned my house but it wouldn't make it worth anything.
You are underestimating yourself. I would offer a pittance for a WoVcoin. I figure it is backed by your honor and integrity. Once the house is clean, please give me your house cleaners number so that I can make an offer.
I think believers and disbelievers in the future of bitcoin are split largely split this way:
Older: do not accept
Younger: accept
IMHO it would be wrong to quickly dismiss youthful imagination.
They are sometimes foolish.
But they are sometimes very brilliant
Quote: RSWhat I don't get is this --
If there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation? The mining process is what fuels BTC's transactions. So, if there are no more BTC to be mined, then people will stop mining (duh), which will bring transactions to a halt, because, well, yeah.
So what am I missing here? I haven't seen this brought up but it seems like a very obvious and big problem down the road.
You do realize bitcoins can be split to a lesser value right? You dont just buy and sell with full bitcoins, you would have 1/1000 of a bitcoin etc. The market therefore would be in those types of transactions. If i want to buy a sandwich or something I would give 1/100,000 of a bitcoin etc, thats how it will work once all the bitcoins are in circulation. You simply start splitting up the bitcoin. Doing that though kind of defeats the purpose of crypto vs fiat though, because doing that means there really isnt a finite amount of bitcoin if you can judt keep splitting the amount. It will judt turn into whay we have now with inflationary currency that will just depreciate more and mpre over time.
I dont think bitcoin will ever become a 'use', people are simply just buying it as an investment. I also believe government will find a way to restrict its usage whether its telling these retailers they cant sell it or theyre lose their license etc, which would then only leave the private market with access to bitcoins and i dont know if that will ever go far due to security and lack of trust amongst each other.
Quote: ZenKinGYou do realize bitcoins can be split to a lesser value right? You dont just buy and sell with full bitcoins, you would have 1/1000 of a bitcoin etc. The market therefore would be in those types of transactions. If i want to buy a sandwich or something I would give 1/100,000 of a bitcoin etc, thats how it will work once all the bitcoins are in circulation. You simply start splitting up the bitcoin. Doing that though kind of defeats the purpose of crypto vs fiat though, because doing that means there really isnt a finite amount of bitcoin if you can judt keep splitting the amount. It will judt turn into whay we have now with inflationary currency that will just depreciate more and mpre over time.
I dont think bitcoin will ever become a 'use', people are simply just buying it as an investment. I also believe government will find a way to restrict its usage whether its telling these retailers they cant sell it or theyre lose their license etc, which would then only leave the private market with access to bitcoins and i dont know if that will ever go far due to security and lack of trust amongst each other.
I think Rs's point just went over ZK's head.
$:o)
Quote: DRichYou are underestimating yourself. I would offer a pittance for a WoVcoin.
Well, thank you!
Quote: lilredrooster25 years ago would you have believed that you could in the near future pay for merchandise by scanning a bar code with a portable phone?
I think believers and disbelievers in the future of bitcoin are split largely split this way:
Older: do not accept
Younger: accept
IMHO it would be wrong to quickly dismiss youthful imagination.
They are sometimes foolish.
But they are sometimes very brilliant
QR codes are already a thing of the past. Failed miserably considering everyone though things were moving that way. Barely see them anymore.
Three seasons ago on Shark Tank Mark Cuban crushed a guy trying to get investors in his QR code business as they're going the way of the dodo bird.
Although nothing much happened, lots of computer people overlooked the Y2K problem.
Quote: gamerfreakI’d argue that by definition no currency has intrinsic value, otherwise it would be a commodity. The thing that makes a currancy valuable is the market’s faith in that currancy.
Currencies are valued by the strength of the issuing government and their enforcement of Rule of Law.....oh what an effed up world we live in.
Bitcoin is a currency mirage.
Quote: MaxPenCurrencies are valued by the strength of the issuing government and their enforcement of Rule of Law.....oh what an effed up world we live in.
Bitcoin is a currency mirage.
Quote: WizardOkay, good point. However, it takes that much energy only because so many people are mining. I could give out a WoVcoin to anyone who cleaned my house but it wouldn't make it worth anything.
You could also print out a WizBuck from MS-Paint, and it wouldn't be worth anything either. A large part of the faith in a currency is knowing that it can't be, or won't be, created out of thin air. In the case of the US Dollar, like MaxPen mentioned, that is enforced through the governmental law. In the case of Bitcoin, it's enforced by mathematical law, which is the open source Blockchain algorithm.
Quote: RSWhat I don't get is this --
If there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation? The mining process is what fuels BTC's transactions. So, if there are no more BTC to be mined, then people will stop mining (duh), which will bring transactions to a halt, because, well, yeah.
So what am I missing here? I haven't seen this brought up but it seems like a very obvious and big problem down the road.
Bitcoins are mined in blocks, where the current reward for mining an entire block is 12.5 BTC. Every 2,016 blocks, the network adjusts the difficulty of mining the next 2,016 blocks based on the overall amount of computational power (miners) on the network, with a goal of the network solving a new block every 10 minutes.
Every 210,000 blocks (about four years), the reward of mining a block is halved. This continues until the reward for mining a block hits 0, at which point the record-keeping mining process is rewarded with transaction fees only. That will happen in the year 2140, after 21 million total bitcoins are mined.
Quote: rs
What I don't get is this --
If there is a maximum of BTC out there, waiting to be mined, what happens once all the BTC are in circulation? The mining process is what fuels BTC's transactions. So, if there are no more BTC to be mined, then people will stop mining (duh), which will bring transactions to a halt, because, well, yeah.
So what am I missing here? I haven't seen this brought up but it seems like a very obvious and big problem down the road.
Invest in bitcoin, make a million bucks. Years later, ask internet forum how they even work.
- RS's guide to millennial investing lol
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/935317001
What if someone found the cats then called and gave their name, but the owners decided not to pay the reward, but still wanted their cats back? Would the cats have to be returned ASAP or could they just hold them pending a lawsuit?Quote: IbeatyouracesSpeaking of bitcoin, anyone in the Detroit area (Farmington Hills more specifically), there's a $100,000 reward in bitcoin for the return of these world record cats!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/935317001
Quote: ArticleCygnus held the Guinness World Record with a tail of 17.5 inches long. Arcturus stood 20.1 inches tall, which was another world record. The cats had just appeared on the national talk show Pickler and Ben just before they went missing.
I'm not into conspiracy theories, but let me tell you, that fire was no accident. It was created deliberately and used as a cover plan, while the high-stakes thieves went after the treasured cats.
Quote: AxelWolfWhat if someone found the cats then called and gave their name, but the owners decided not to pay the reward, but still wanted their cats back? Would the cats have to be returned ASAP or could they just hold them pending a lawsuit?
According to the google searches I've done, it appears they have to return the cats, whether there's a reward or not, assuming the finder knows who the original owners of the cats are. So if the finder calls him up n says, "Yo, I got yo cats, you got fat stacks (money) fo' me, right?" the owner can be like, "Nah dawg, I ain't giving you no money, but I want my felines back." and the finder has to return the cats. If it went to court, I'd think the original owner would get the cats back for free, but the finder could sue for damages.
When you find lost property, you're legally supposed to make an effort to find the true owner and return it. Different levels of "effort" are required based on value of the lost property. With a lost pet, you're supposed to contact animal control and/or make an effort to find the original owner, like putting up flyers, ad on craigslist, etc. After a certain amount of time, if the original owners haven't contacted you, then it's yours to keep (3-6 months or so).
Laws are also weird concerning animals because most are about other animals (like cows n other farm types) but not companion animals.
Quote: Wizard, Dec 7, 2017, 11:20 AMI sold 25% of a Wizcoin to a friend on Oct 18 for $1345. Just now I invoked my buy-back option at a price of $17285 per Bitcoin , so so 1/4 is $4321.25. My loss is thus $2976.25.
Well, let the record show I invoked my option at the absolute peak of Bitcoin. Here it is two days later and Bitcoin is at around $14,000 and falling by the minute. A drop of 19%. Could my buy back been timed at a worse possible minute? I sold even higher than the peak of this graph. Not only did I sell at the absolute worst possible minute but also picked a source (Google) as a source quoting a high price. At the time I sold the market was so crazy the values ranged from source to source by hundreds of dollars.
I am beside myself with misery on this. Thank you for sharing in my pain.
