Think You're An AP?

So I recently had a really long drive, to say the least. On this drive during the middle of the night I had a teammate up with me discussing random things while I was driving. I came up with a question on the spot to ask/quiz my teammate for fun, but I thought it would make a really good question for anyone/everyone in the forums to answer!

So you don't have to be an AP to answer this, you can try on your own to do it anyways, etc. I would think it interesting to those who consider themselves full AP's though, as there's a mix of a few different types of plays in here =).

RULES: This is the honor system, but it will be most fun if you do this the same way we did... No computers, no SIMS, just some quick napkin math. I let my teammates think about it, talk about it, but they answered in about 5 minutes with nothing more than some quick out loud discussion. So... Talk it out, maybe grab a paper and pencil, but nothing past that.

QUESTION
You just walked in to a new casino to check it out. You found a few GREAT opportunities to play... The trouble is they're only available for the rest of the night (timeline doesn't matter just not a long term thing). There is no heat and no chance of you getting any. You need to figure out which play is the most profitable for you! The clock is ticking. After all, they say time is money! Which play below has the highest hourly EV / What would you play for the night?

1) 3rd street Mississippi Hole Card game. Table limits are $10-$100. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get a good game at 40 hands per hour.

2) Video Poker promotion. For every hour of play, at the end of that hour you'll receive back 50% of your total action for the hour in FP! The best machine in the house is a 100% payback machine, and the highest denomination in the house is $1. So we're on the same page here, let's say you can play fast, at 1000 hands per hour.

3) Roulette Half Loss promotion. When playing roulette, every time you lose, you only lose half of the amount you wagered. The table limits are $10-$1000. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get 30 spins per hour.

I have the answers for all 3 of these, but don't want to put them in a spoiler because sometimes even myself when I see that I'm lazy and just click to confirm my initial gut. If you're not an AP, you should hopefully be able to think about it for a few minutes and maybe at least decide which the worst is. If you claim to be an AP, you should be able to solve this in only a few minutes with nothing other than some thought.

IF others want to "show their work" please do so in spoiler tabs and again I'm going to encourage others to take a stab at it before viewing!

Just a guess, but I'd say roulette. Stud seems too obvious so I'd exclude that.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Just a guess, but I'd say roulette. Stud seems too obvious so I'd exclude that.

Be sure to vote! And I'm not saying any right or wrongs, just that I literally made this up while driving, so there is NO trickery in making some obvious or some not.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Just a guess, but I'd say roulette. Stud seems too obvious so I'd exclude that.

I agree, I can think of a few ways that would clean up given the loss return.

...vote you A*holes. ;-)

Quote: Romes

...vote you A*holes. ;-)

There I voted, only because you called me by my first name though!

I would play the one that was a guaranteed profit which is VP.

And potentially sacrifice a lot of EV? Did you work that out or take a mental stab by just viewing the problem?

I would not play any of the games, I'd charge a $500 cover for entry to this EV+ casino.

I am not an AP. I would pick roulette.

Are 2/3 real promos you've seen? I can't imagine...

Not real promo's, just made them up to make an interesting situation. Since Joeman posted his thoughts, I'll also post mine in hiding on page 2...

I'm not an AP either, but I agree with Joeman's choice of Roulette, even though I haven't checked his reasoning.

Now that I've read the other answers, I ask: So why the big discrepancy in the results for option 3?


Edit: I think I just offered a much better strategy of play.

;-)

Quote: Romes

And potentially sacrifice a lot of EV? Did you work that out or take a mental stab by just viewing the problem?

I did no math but here are my thoughts prior to reading the answers.

1. Hole carding still requires you to get good cards and winning hands. Since this is a one time promotion you could still lose money. If I have other oprions I am easily taking them.

2. I like playing VP. With a 50% play rebate you are playing a game that can not lose. I also like vp so that would be fun. With this option you are playing with variance but the variance would be fun variance. It would be either make a whole lot or make an ass ton a lot if you over royal.

3. I am pretty sure this would be your best ev but it would be boring as hell. I could probably come up with betting patterns that would guarantee x amount of win but that would be set in stone basically. I would prefer VP that still has variance but still guarantees a huge win.

OOps pulled an axel

Quote: Romes

So I recently had a really long drive, to say the least. On this drive during the middle of the night I had a teammate up with me discussing random things while I was driving. I came up with a question on the spot to ask/quiz my teammate for fun, but I thought it would make a really good question for anyone/everyone in the forums to answer!

So you don't have to be an AP to answer this, you can try on your own to do it anyways, etc. I would think it interesting to those who consider themselves full AP's though, as there's a mix of a few different types of plays in here =).

RULES: This is the honor system, but it will be most fun if you do this the same way we did... No computers, no SIMS, just some quick napkin math. I let my teammates think about it, talk about it, but they answered in about 5 minutes with nothing more than some quick out loud discussion. So... Talk it out, maybe grab a paper and pencil, but nothing past that.

QUESTION
You just walked in to a new casino to check it out. You found a few GREAT opportunities to play... The trouble is they're only available for the rest of the night (timeline doesn't matter just not a long term thing). There is no heat and no chance of you getting any. You need to figure out which play is the most profitable for you! The clock is ticking. After all, they say time is money! Which play below has the highest hourly EV / What would you play for the night?

1) 3rd street Mississippi Hole Card game. Table limits are $10-$100. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get a good game at 40 hands per hour.

2) Video Poker promotion. For every hour of play, at the end of that hour you'll receive back 50% of your total action for the hour in FP! The best machine in the house is a 100% payback machine, and the highest denomination in the house is $1. So we're on the same page here, let's say you can play fast, at 1000 hands per hour.

3) Roulette Half Loss promotion. When playing roulette, every time you lose, you only lose half of the amount you wagered. The table limits are $10-$1000. So we're on the same page here, let's say you get 30 spins per hour.

I have the answers for all 3 of these, but don't want to put them in a spoiler because sometimes even myself when I see that I'm lazy and just click to confirm my initial gut. If you're not an AP, you should hopefully be able to think about it for a few minutes and maybe at least decide which the worst is. If you claim to be an AP, you should be able to solve this in only a few minutes with nothing other than some thought.

IF others want to "show their work" please do so in spoiler tabs and again I'm going to encourage others to take a stab at it before viewing!

I wouldn't ask such questions in the first place on forums espesilly ones that are actually possible. The reason why is because there's people who wouldn't have a clue exactly know and what to play. They might end up playing something worth significantly less or not at all because they didn't understand the actual value therefor it might last longer. Also other casinos might want to run the same type of promo but then they read about how valuable it is and exactly what to look for when AP show up or they might exclude certain games. Didn't you learn this from the Revel? Plaza and many other plays?

I see no reason to discuss such things just to educate the casinos.

Roulette is worth at least $13,026 per hour.

Insufficient information. What are the bust sizes and personalities of the Missisippi and Roulette dealers ?

Quote: AxelWolf

...I see no reason to discuss such things just to educate the casinos.

I even mentioned it to you last weekend. It was a rando question and the only one real plausible play in all of them (the other 2 would never happen) is decently written about (at least any math you'd need to answer the question).

lol then in the other HC - interesting read thread you talked about how to do it, practice, etc.

This is off the top of my head.

Quote: gordonm888

This is off the top of my head.

My Quick Analysis

1. MS Stud Hole Card. The theoretical player edge for 3rd Street Hole Card on MS Stud is about 54%. At 40 hands/hr at $100 initial bet that's about $2,000/hr theoretical profit. But my issues are:
- how reliably will I see the Hole Card?
- Dealer changes/rotations will almost certainly affect the visibility of the hole card
- Heat from the management. It's probably not realistic to max bet every hand, make strange decisions on your first two cards and rake in $2000/hr without getting a lot of scrutiny
- complex rules to remember - and without time to drill and train -that means I'll be making mistakes and underperforming the theoretical 54% edge.
- High variance -if the cards run bad I will get into loss-of-bankroll issues, and in any case I might under-perform my EV given the short stretch of one night


2. Video Poker Promotion will returns 50% of $1,000/hr action -so that's $500/hr being returned and I'll assume I break even on the play of the $1,000/hr. So that's $500/hr of theoretical profit -but its as Free Play credits. Given the stated assumptions, that translates into $250/hr.
- The major advantage of this would be no heat. They won't see you winning anything -you make your money when you cash in the action rebate and use your free play..

3. Roulette Loss rebate -this is a 50% rebate on losses. At max theoretical action of $30,000/hr, I would expect to loss roughly $2,000/hr to the House Edge but recover roughly $8,000/hr from the loss rebate program. So that is potential max theoretical profit of $6,000/hr.
- I would be concerned about heat -might cause me to bet below max.
- Potential variance could cause loss of bankroll I walked in with.
- I don't think you can bet 1/2 on red and 1/2 on black on each spin and get a loss rebate for your portion of the bet you lost. I'd probably want to bet the full amount on red or black on each hand.

So, overall my strategy would be: Play Roulette for as long as I am not getting heat, and for as long as my bankroll holds out. If my funds start to run low, or I'm getting heat, my plan would ne to switch to Video Poker as a low-bankroll no-drama alternative and just accumulate the Free Play credits.

- Worst of these three opportunities, IMO, is the MS Stud Hole Card.

Gordo, your analysis on VP is wrong. It is $1 game so $5 bet and 5k in, so 2500 returned. The game is 100% so you get all 2500 back.

Quote: GWAE

Gordo, your analysis on VP is wrong. It is $1 game so $5 bet and 5k in, so 2500 returned. The game is 100% so you get all 2500 back.

I haven't played VP in many years, so I apparently don't understand the bet sizing. If its a $5 bet, then its a much more attractive option, obviously.

My experience with Free Play is that you should expect to cash out 50% of the value of your Free Play credit if you use it on wagers that offer even money odds (which is what "100% back" would mean, IMO). So I think the VP Promotion would be worth $1,250/hr, wouldn't it?

Quote: gordonm888

I haven't played VP in many years, so I apparently don't understand the bet sizing. If its a $5 bet, then its a much more attractive option, obviously.

My experience with Free Play is that you should expect to cash out 50% of the value of your Free Play credit if you use it on wagers that offer even money odds (which is what "100% back" would mean, IMO). So I think the VP Promotion would be worth $1,250/hr, wouldn't it?

No free play should return the expected value. Match play is what would be considered 50%

Freeplay (on machines) is worth whatever the return is on the game. If you redeem $10k in FP on 9/6 JOB (99.54%), then the value of your $10k of free-play is $9,954.

Since you'd be putting through $5k in action per hour with a $0 expected loss (given it's a 100% game), you'd get $2,500 back in FP, and thus, it'd be worth $2,500/hour.


EDIT: I like how Romes made this "see if you can figure out the highest EV play" and he didn't pick the one with the highest EV. :)

Quote: AxelWolf

I see no reason to discuss such things just to educate the casinos.

Don't you love AP's that can't keep their
mouths shut? I heard Romes on the radio
show, he's totally impressed with himself.
If only he would just keep it TO himself.

I miss Kewlj, at least he understood what
was what about being an AP.

Quote: Romes

I even mentioned it to you last weekend. It was a rando question and the only one real plausible play in all of them (the other 2 would never happen) is decently written about (at least any math you'd need to answer the question).

lol then in the other HC - interesting read thread you talked about how to do it, practice, etc.

First off given your examples its painfully obvious VP wouldn't be the best(so don't vote VP).

If we were to take a past rebate situation, one that may have inspired this unfortunate casino educating thread, given that particular situation and given all the information and TOTAL VALUE of the promotion per person, not the hourly, because I would rather make $1k an hr for 16 hours than 5k per hour for one hour and be done. It's not worth giving up information for the sake of winning an argument.

You can spread AP information and education to the masses and everyone one can make $5 each from AP therefore making AP not worthwhile for any one individual.

Putting this stuff on the casinos radar, inspiring idiots who do dumb things, educating people who normally wouldn't think and figure out how best to play something. look up, 8 people would play $1 VP, now because of this thread there's 8 more people who if they were ever to find themselves in this situation will now know what to or not to do, therefore now competing with you, me and whomever, because there's a limit to the casinos tolerance, therefore they are competing with you to get the casinos money.

Educating and inspiring just one wrong person can cost AP's millions and even cost one individual 100's of thousands. (Again see the Revel thread it took one person to cause higher VP to be taken out and a major panic from the casino where they took away peoples cards for playing $100 slots )
Just Imagine if there were no T ELLIOT and guys like that.

There's only one real valid question for an AP and that's how can I extract the most money from the casino and keep doing it over and over and over. Math definitely won't answer that question.

This thread is -EV period.

Quote: RS

Since you'd be putting through $5k in action per hour with a $0 expected loss (given it's a 100% game), you'd get $2,500 back in FP, and thus, it'd be worth $2,500/hour.

But wouldn't it take an additional half hour to redeem that free play, reducing your hourly rate? You would earn another $1,250 in free play, but you would need to play another quarter hour to redeem that, etc.

In my original analysis, I mistakenly thought the maximum VP wager was $1, so I came up with a lower benefit, but I think this VP offer is much weaker than the Roulette offer worth roughly $13,000 per hour, depending on whether it is single or double zero and (to exploit to the max) whether you can wager fractions of a dollar.

Of course, while the Roulette strategy I suggested has zero variance, VP does involve probability and risk, so we're just guessing that the 100% return game pays out just that way on your session.

Edit: Axel, I wouldn't worry too much about this thread giving away too many secrets -- all of the options are too extreme for any casino to offer such a thing in real life.

Quote: Doc

But wouldn't it take an additional half hour to redeem that free play, reducing your hourly rate? You would earn another $1,250 in free play, but you would need to play another quarter hour to redeem that, etc.

In my original analysis, I mistakenly thought the maximum VP wager was $1, so I came up with a lower benefit, but I think this VP offer is much weaker than the Roulette offer worth roughly $13,000 per hour, depending on whether it is single or double zero and (to exploit to the max) whether you can wager fractions of a dollar.

Of course, while the Roulette strategy I suggested has zero variance, VP does involve probability and risk, so we're just guessing that the 100% return game pays out just that way on your session.

Edit: Axel, I wouldn't worry too much about this thread giving away too many secrets -- all of the options are too extreme for any casino to offer such a thing in real life.

That's not the point. It can be applied on a smaller scale. You wouldn't think a casino would do a 100k loss rebate, but they did, but they did. You wouldn't think the casinos would give someone a 20% loss rebate and front money betting large amounts, but they did(this logic theory can be applied to that). You wouldn't think the casinos would let people request special cards and turn them a special way allowing millions of dollars to be won, but they did.

Axel even in your own examples 2/3 weren't even for the common player, but whales with special requests. How many of those we got floating around on these forums? The idea of these questions was that they wouldn't ever actually happen.

Quote: RS

...EDIT: I like how Romes made this "see if you can figure out the highest EV play" and he didn't pick the one with the highest EV. :)

I picked the GAME with the highest EV... When driving at 3am I shortcutted to an even money bet for simpler math so I could solve the problem in 60 seconds!

I still don't understand why anyone has a problem with this thread if these aren't real promotions.

Do casinos really not calculate the value of promotions before offering them?

Why does no one trash the wizard for all the "casino education" he does?

It sounds like the problems here are personal rather than the information being discussed.

Quote: gamerfreak

Why does no one trash the wizard for all the "casino education" he does?
.

Trashing not the right word but has been criticized/disagreed with for doing so every time.

I glanced at the thread real quick and my opinion is whichever is the easiest to do and easiest to replicate to others that play for you, taking into account what each play is worth and how many people I can get doing it over and over again. $5k an hour is great but what if nobody can do it except for yourself? What if you can get 5 people on a $3k an hour play instead?

Also the variance involved as well. I'm not interested in a 120% WoF with the payback all in the progressive.

EDIT: No bigot option. I am dissapoint.

Quote: djatc

I glanced at the thread real quick and my opinion is whichever is the easiest to do and easiest to replicate to others that play for you...

EDIT: No bigot option. I am dissapoint.

A brilliant point not yet discussed. One might think $X/hour is great, but if you can bring your non-gambling friends with you, or call them to come, etc, then how does 3 or 4 times $X/hour sound?

I usually put "something something bigot" as an option, but felt the other options were pretty good. Axel thinks it's VP is up to 10 votes, and this amuses me.

Quote: gamerfreak

Do casinos really not calculate the value of promotions before offering them?

No they don't.

Quote: EvenBob

I miss Kewlj, at least he understood what
was what about being an AP.

Yep, he told everyone where, when, what and how he plays. I could pick him of in just a few days and I've never seen the guy.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yep, he told everyone where, when, what and how he plays. I could pick him of in just a few days and I've never seen the guy.

It's not what he said, it's what he didn't
say. But he's a full time AP, the only one
here who is, in BJ.

Quote: EvenBob

It's not what he said, it's what he didn't
say. But he's a full time AP, the only one
here who is, in BJ.

I may screw around with VP at home but I guarantee I get way more EV on the road then he does in Vegas.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I may screw around with VP at home but I guarantee I get way more EV on the road then he does in Vegas.

Who doesn't? He's always said he's a mid level counter who mainly sticks to only counting and levels he's comfortable with. Apparently the casinos are too.

Sounds like he's got a 9 to 5 routine down and he's happy sticking to it.

Quote: EvenBob

It's not what he said, it's what he didn't
say. But he's a full time AP, the only one
here who is, in BJ.

That remains to be seen, apparently he inked a deal and is writing a book. I'm not sure what new or interesting BJ information or stories one could have and fit in with "what he didn't
say."

Quote: AxelWolf

That remains to be seen, apparently he inked a deal and is writing a book. I'm not sure what new or interesting BJ information or stories one could have and fit in with "what he didn't
say."

It must piss you off to no end that people keep writing AP gambling books.