New Project Ideas
August 18th, 2010 at 3:47:29 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffThere is no folly that is too foolish to be believed by somebody who truly wants to believe it.
Of course. Catholic priests at one time got rich selling indulgences, too. Hell, there are books on how to win at lotto.
But dice control sounds plausible. The movements of discrete objects, such as dice, can be measured in every way by well-known laws of physics. Everything about a throw, from the mass of the dice, the strenght and angle of the throw, the friction and elasticity of the felt, etc etc can be known.
Given all that, it seems plausible a mechanical engineer, as the legend told in Breaknig Vegas has it, would research the subject and discovered a way to keep the dice on axis so that, to an extent, the outcome is under control.
Against that there are the books and DVDs, which may or may not be a considerable source of income. There are the very expensive seminars, which certainly look like a good source of income. And especially the fact that the casinos don't mind dice setting as far as I know. I myself set the dice freely every throw, and saw several other people do likewise.
But the premise is still plaussible enough so that it warrants testing. I wonder if some Phd candidate at UNLV hasn't tackled dice setting for his dissertation.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 18th, 2010 at 6:45:57 PM
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I know you are going to say "no" to this, but I'll throw it out there anyway. Investing in the Stock Market is a form of gambling, if you ask me. And I am not so sure the people who have analyzed it can't get some help from a Gambling Math analyzer.
One of the things I am struggling with now is how "they" say you shouldn't look at how your Stocks are doing on a daily basis, that that's just looking at a snapshot and missing the big picture. Yet when it comes to Bonds, "they" say you shouldnt feel smug you bought when there is a certain rate if rates later go up; brother you have been slaughtered, "they" say, and you should pay attention to that! I don't get it, assuming the bonds have low risk of default, seems to me you don't worry about that snapshot either.
"they" = various internet or TV pundits, and the newsletters that come from various funds.
One of the things I am struggling with now is how "they" say you shouldn't look at how your Stocks are doing on a daily basis, that that's just looking at a snapshot and missing the big picture. Yet when it comes to Bonds, "they" say you shouldnt feel smug you bought when there is a certain rate if rates later go up; brother you have been slaughtered, "they" say, and you should pay attention to that! I don't get it, assuming the bonds have low risk of default, seems to me you don't worry about that snapshot either.
"they" = various internet or TV pundits, and the newsletters that come from various funds.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 20th, 2010 at 12:49:56 AM
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It may not be interesting to Vegas casino gamblers but the 'beggars' on the riverboat casinos are interesting to me, especially the ones who make a living by it. Perhaps you could write about them or some of the differences between Vegas casinos and riverboat casinos?
August 20th, 2010 at 3:11:41 AM
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No, it sounds desirable and therefore is thought to be plausible.Quote: NareedBut dice control sounds plausible.
>I wonder if some Phd candidate at UNLV hasn't tackled dice setting for his dissertation.
Didn't the now-deceased Feinmann tackle this problem while drinking with students at an off-campus topless bar in Glendale or Pasadena?
Didn't the famous Stanford statistician Persi Diaconis address this problem to an unidentified Standford physicist and relay his comments at a lunch-lecture of some sort?
Do you think the skilled surveillance people at a casino are somehow oblivious to the problem. Their sole concern is delay of the game. If they really were worried about dice setting, there would be a little bird cage tumbler device that the player operated.
August 20th, 2010 at 5:04:23 AM
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Re Dice Setting, I don't know why a trial of 10,000 is so hard to do? at least considering what's riding on it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 20th, 2010 at 6:51:38 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitI know you are going to say "no" to this, but I'll throw it out there anyway. Investing in the Stock Market is a form of gambling, if you ask me. And I am not so sure the people who have analyzed it can't get some help from a Gambling Math analyzer.
I've been told lots of times that I should get into analyzing options and/or derivatives. However, I wouldn't know where to start. My own investment history is also pretty lousy. I would have made out better if I had rented instead of owned, and kept my money under my mattress, my whole life.
Quote: odiousgambitRe Dice Setting, I don't know why a trial of 10,000 is so hard to do? at least considering what's riding on it.
Assuming 30 rolls per hour, that would take 13.9 solid 24-hour days.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 20th, 2010 at 7:31:24 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffNo, it sounds desirable and therefore is thought to be plausible.
I disagree. read what I wrote more carefully. I didn't say dice control is plausible, I said it sounds plausible. Whether it is plausible or not remains to be seen.
As a counter-example, albeit a ridiculous one, suppose someone came up with dice mind control, that si the notion you can influence the dice to come up with the number you want if you concentrate no that number hard enough. That's also desirable, but it doesn't sound even remotely plausible.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 20th, 2010 at 7:34:45 AM
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Quote: WizardI would have made out better if I had rented instead of owned, and kept my money under my mattress, my whole life.
In more ways than one, perhaps?
Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.)
August 20th, 2010 at 7:40:47 AM
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Quote: WizardAssuming 30 rolls per hour, that would take 13.9 solid 24-hour days.
Plus how long can a dice setter throw before he gets tired? I don't think much more than an hour or two, possibly less. So there'd be breaks. All told such an experiment would take weeks.
It would take money, too. There's payment for the dice setters and maybe for the controls, renting a regulation casino craps table for several weeks (buying one is out of the question), buying regulation dice (lots of them), plus two research assistants and a grad student <wink!>
That's why I suggest it be done by someone with access to grant money, or the Mythbusters.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 20th, 2010 at 8:22:26 AM
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Hello Wizard,
I would like to make several suggestions. But before I do, I would like you to reconsider dice-setting under a different circumstance. I believe you can develop meaningful results in less than 10k trials. At MIT, I know their labs have been working on a bionic arm. This is significant because it eliminates a number of physics induced variables. Suppose you could build a rudimentary dice holder which would be the rough equivalent of setting and holding the dice. All you need is to use that holder to simulate the dice throw. That would provide you the best evidence with minimal external variables. Perhaps this might be out of your engineering background, but it's the approach I would have taken if I had the time.
Some alternative suggestions would be: using your mathematical background to analyze the stock market. Afterall, the stock market is the largest casino. You'd have to isolate a very niche topic. As a fgrmer analyst, there are some very interesting niche topics. Market movements relative to options expiry on the 3rd Friday of every month. Game theory on earnings announcements, do you buy sell or hold. Correlation or pairs trading within specific industries. Lots of interesting topics. But you'd have to find one that appeals to you. Derivative valuation is always increasingly complex. Unfortunately, this might be too long, too many variables etc.
Another alternative would be applied game theory in poker. Given the statistical probability of various distributed hands across the table, and the likelihood of someone playing a hand with a lower EV, what hands would represent a Nash Equilibrium. Or something along those lines.
Getting back to home base, how about studying the impact of trends on betting patterns in roulette. You could easily simulate a pseudo-set of random numbers that display certain patterns. And solicit volunteers who would gamble based on those patterns. This would be a cross in psychology and mathematics. I volunteered for something similar in relation to horse betting.
That leads me into my final suggestion. Handicapping for horse racing. Always fun. Break a leg Big Brown!!!!!!
I would like to make several suggestions. But before I do, I would like you to reconsider dice-setting under a different circumstance. I believe you can develop meaningful results in less than 10k trials. At MIT, I know their labs have been working on a bionic arm. This is significant because it eliminates a number of physics induced variables. Suppose you could build a rudimentary dice holder which would be the rough equivalent of setting and holding the dice. All you need is to use that holder to simulate the dice throw. That would provide you the best evidence with minimal external variables. Perhaps this might be out of your engineering background, but it's the approach I would have taken if I had the time.
Some alternative suggestions would be: using your mathematical background to analyze the stock market. Afterall, the stock market is the largest casino. You'd have to isolate a very niche topic. As a fgrmer analyst, there are some very interesting niche topics. Market movements relative to options expiry on the 3rd Friday of every month. Game theory on earnings announcements, do you buy sell or hold. Correlation or pairs trading within specific industries. Lots of interesting topics. But you'd have to find one that appeals to you. Derivative valuation is always increasingly complex. Unfortunately, this might be too long, too many variables etc.
Another alternative would be applied game theory in poker. Given the statistical probability of various distributed hands across the table, and the likelihood of someone playing a hand with a lower EV, what hands would represent a Nash Equilibrium. Or something along those lines.
Getting back to home base, how about studying the impact of trends on betting patterns in roulette. You could easily simulate a pseudo-set of random numbers that display certain patterns. And solicit volunteers who would gamble based on those patterns. This would be a cross in psychology and mathematics. I volunteered for something similar in relation to horse betting.
That leads me into my final suggestion. Handicapping for horse racing. Always fun. Break a leg Big Brown!!!!!!
August 20th, 2010 at 11:24:39 AM
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Quote: AsswhoopermcdaddyAnother alternative would be applied game theory in poker. Given the statistical probability of various distributed hands across the table, and the likelihood of someone playing a hand with a lower EV, what hands would represent a Nash Equilibrium. Or something along those lines.
Unfortunately I don't think that's a fresh angle since Kill Everyone's been published; it describes equilibrium play in tournament settings.
August 20th, 2010 at 1:09:06 PM
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Quote: NareedPlus how long can a dice setter throw before he gets tired? I don't think much more than an hour or two, possibly less. So there'd be breaks. All told such an experiment would take weeks.
It would take money, too. There's payment for the dice setters and maybe for the controls, renting a regulation casino craps table for several weeks (buying one is out of the question), buying regulation dice (lots of them), plus two research assistants and a grad student <wink!>
That's why I suggest it be done by someone with access to grant money, or the Mythbusters.
And, since Adam and Jamie like to blow shit up at the end, I'd bet there isn't much interest in setting dice......
hmmmm, watching a craps table being blown to smithereens does sound like fun, though.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
August 21st, 2010 at 6:27:32 AM
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Quote:Assuming 30 rolls per hour, that would take 13.9 solid 24-hour days.
They don't need to be come-out rolls, do they? Dice setters are slower, but I think you could have 3 acclaimed and respected rollers netting 250 or so rolls an hour if more than one table is used. 40 hours now. It could be a once a week thing that went on for months [or years] too.
I absolutely agree this would still be very hard to organize and would require volunteers and other sacrifices by those devoted. Is there no casino that would help? I would volunteer to help take statistics, of course I am seldom in Vegas so maybe that is easy for me to say.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 21st, 2010 at 6:54:00 AM
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I think 30 rolls an hour is normal for casino conditions, and that is all rolls, not just come out rolls. If this were done as an exhibition, skeptics could claim that removing normal casino annoyances, and the pressure of playing for money, would ruin the experiment. The Wong/Little Joe experiment was strictly done under normal casino conditions. Also, there would be no incentive for any believers to participate who are not selling books or lessons on dice throwing. Why draw attention to yourself and motivate competitors? Still, I don't rule out the idea. If a good opportunity to do this presents itself, I would be happy to be the judge, or help in any capacity.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 21st, 2010 at 12:24:20 PM
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Hi Wizard,
Here's one that you could sink your teeth into, and it probably would be of interest to both the players and the casinos:
There is a growing debate amongst casino operators and slot machine vendors about the cost of freeplay. The IGT system, for instance, allows casinos to credit a player's account with x amount of freeplay, which they can wager just as real credits. When they lose, they lose. However, when they win the get the freeplay and the win returned as real credits. This is my understanding of freeplay (I'm actually a Table Games guy), but was asked the question of cost.
Here's how I see it:
If it was a matchplay on tables, per $1 value the player would gain probabilityofwin * return (not considering the matched wager). So for roulette even-money 18/38 * 1 = 0.47 and single number 1/38 * 35 = 0.92.
If it was a non-negotiable chip that had to be played until lost, then the value would increase asymptotically to a higher value, due to the possibilities of repetitive wins.
The difference between the two is that a player can walk after the matchplay, but is obligated to play out the non-negotiable.
However, for free play the player not only recieves his winning credit, but also recieves his freeplay back as a real credit (unless I misunderstood how it was explained). If that was the case, the value would be probabilityofwin * (return + 1). In the case of a roulette freeplay (if there was such a case), the gain would be 1-HA for any wager on the layout.
In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.
These freeplays are given sometimes as rewards, sometimes based on play, etc. What value is this to the player and what cost is it to the casino?
Here's one that you could sink your teeth into, and it probably would be of interest to both the players and the casinos:
There is a growing debate amongst casino operators and slot machine vendors about the cost of freeplay. The IGT system, for instance, allows casinos to credit a player's account with x amount of freeplay, which they can wager just as real credits. When they lose, they lose. However, when they win the get the freeplay and the win returned as real credits. This is my understanding of freeplay (I'm actually a Table Games guy), but was asked the question of cost.
Here's how I see it:
If it was a matchplay on tables, per $1 value the player would gain probabilityofwin * return (not considering the matched wager). So for roulette even-money 18/38 * 1 = 0.47 and single number 1/38 * 35 = 0.92.
If it was a non-negotiable chip that had to be played until lost, then the value would increase asymptotically to a higher value, due to the possibilities of repetitive wins.
The difference between the two is that a player can walk after the matchplay, but is obligated to play out the non-negotiable.
However, for free play the player not only recieves his winning credit, but also recieves his freeplay back as a real credit (unless I misunderstood how it was explained). If that was the case, the value would be probabilityofwin * (return + 1). In the case of a roulette freeplay (if there was such a case), the gain would be 1-HA for any wager on the layout.
In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.
These freeplays are given sometimes as rewards, sometimes based on play, etc. What value is this to the player and what cost is it to the casino?
August 21st, 2010 at 1:23:50 PM
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I agree this is an interesting topic and might warrant a new thread.Quote: Kelmo
In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.
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Most smart players will take their freeplay to the best-paying video poker machine and play it through once at the lowest bet amount possible. I don't think anybody on this board would disagree with that strategy. However, the vast majority of slot players will probably keep playing those "won" credits, thus churning them through again. I can't see how free play can be unprofitable if that is the case. Are casino managers really so tight-fisted that they are fretting that lost 10 minutes of cash play while the customer is playing through their free play? As long as people keep playing the way they do, casino managers have nothing to worry about.
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As far as the mechanics of freeplay, at the casino I frequent most, you are given the free play and must "activate" it by putting enough cash for one bet in the machine. Then, as you play, whether you win or lose, the amount of your bet is rebated after each spin. Other systems (I assume the IGT is one of them) will download the credits straight to the machine right away and you play them off as normal, except they can't be cashed out until they have been churned at least once.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
August 22nd, 2010 at 3:39:50 AM
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For myself, I can never get enough of unusual Vegas casino stories. For instance, just a few years ago, when they switched from coins to paper on the slots, my wife and I were actually 'back-roomed' at Circus Circus over a slot incident. She put a slot receipt for $45 that she got from one machine, into another machine, and nothing happened. We got a slot attendent, and then a supervisor to open the machine and they couldn't find the receipt. We kept insisting it was put in the machine and they took us to the security area, off the casino floor, down a hallway and into a very small room. A big burly older man came in and I swear he was out of a movie, he was very menacing. He asked us question after question, in an extremely unfriendly fashion, and we were guests of the hotel! He said if they opened the box where the receipts were, and ours wasn't in there for that amount, right on top, we could go to jail for fraud. My wife was terrified. I stuck with the story and about 20min later he came back in, handed us $45 in cash, didn't say another word, didn't apologise, nothing. It was a sobering experience, believe me. We checked out immediately and haven't been back.
I love reading about people who have had unusual casino experiences, there have got to be hundreds of them out there.
I love reading about people who have had unusual casino experiences, there have got to be hundreds of them out there.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
September 1st, 2010 at 10:43:29 PM
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I know I probably shouldn't bring back old topics, but I'm wondering if the Wizard has made a decision on any kinds of new projects he may decide to work on? The reason I ask is that this forum itself has pretty much exhausted itself of the gambling ideas, gambling systems, gambling whatevers, and I find myself not getting as much value out of it as I used to when I wanted to learn about gambling. I do enjoy reading stories about people's casino trips, as I somewhat like living vicariously through others. Unfortunately, those stories are few and far between. Anyway, I'm just wondering what plans you may have or new projects you may have come up with. And whether or not those will show up on the WoO site.
September 2nd, 2010 at 2:00:34 AM
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I'm kicking around various ideas in my head for WoO, but nothing in the works. One idea I'm considering is doing instructional videos on YouTube. I prefer to stick to analyzing games, but as I've lamented, I am running dry on games to analyze.
Recently my webmaster at WoO quit. I'm thinking of using the occasion to give that site a new look. Maybe like this one. I'm open to suggestions.
Recently my webmaster at WoO quit. I'm thinking of using the occasion to give that site a new look. Maybe like this one. I'm open to suggestions.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 2nd, 2010 at 6:36:58 PM
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I really wish I had any knowledge whatsoever of how to be a webmaster. I would volunteer in an instant! Unfortunately, my web experience involves designing my business webpage, which, if I do say so myself, looks like crap. Mainly because I copied the design and feel from another unrelated company. Everybody thinks it looks good, but that's only because they have no knowledge of the other website.
My favorite thing on the WoO site is the Ask the Wizard segments. If you do redesign, I hope you keep that feature and maybe make it prominent. :)
My favorite thing on the WoO site is the Ask the Wizard segments. If you do redesign, I hope you keep that feature and maybe make it prominent. :)
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:27:56 PM
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Quote: konceptumI really wish I had any knowledge whatsoever of how to be a webmaster.
Thanks anyway for offering to help. The "Ask the Wizard" column is not going anywhere, don't worry. The content will stay the basically the same. I'm just thinking about changing the appearance, organization, and behind the scenes coding, to try to have the site look more professional, and less campy and low-budget. JB, by the way, is the new webmaster of WoO, but has been busy on the forum redesign here. Once the dust settles on that I plan to have him turn his attention to the WoO.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:42:38 PM
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I actually like the other site better. I think the WoO front page is much nicer than the six-box WoV opener. Incidently, "distinctive and charming" sounds better than "campy and low-budget."
I would grant you two points though. The top menus on WoO are a little cumbersome. Not bad, but they always make me think there must be a better solution. I don't like the free games either. Or more precisely, I don't like the fixed-with column on both sides of the page. I find that distracting, like reading through a window.
I would grant you two points though. The top menus on WoO are a little cumbersome. Not bad, but they always make me think there must be a better solution. I don't like the free games either. Or more precisely, I don't like the fixed-with column on both sides of the page. I find that distracting, like reading through a window.
September 3rd, 2010 at 4:24:02 PM
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If JB is willing to take any suggestions, not that he really needs any because I do think he does a fabulous job, the only thing I would wish for is a mobile site. I find myself turning on my android-based phone and pulling up the WoO site in order to check games or other math while I'm at a casino. Anyway, just an idea. Oops, what I mean is that the WoO site's menu system on the front page is a little bit harsh on mobile phones. Once you get maneuvered through it, the web pages themselves display fine.
September 3rd, 2010 at 4:55:10 PM
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Quote: WizardI think 30 rolls an hour is normal for casino conditions, and that is all rolls, not just come out rolls. If this were done as an exhibition, skeptics could claim that removing normal casino annoyances, and the pressure of playing for money, would ruin the experiment. The Wong/Little Joe experiment was strictly done under normal casino conditions. Also, there would be no incentive for any believers to participate who are not selling books or lessons on dice throwing. Why draw attention to yourself and motivate competitors? Still, I don't rule out the idea. If a good opportunity to do this presents itself, I would be happy to be the judge, or help in any capacity.
I think you are low here. When I was in craps dealer class I asked this exact question and was told they "would like" 80 or so rolls per hour. 2 minutes per roll would be an eternity.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
September 3rd, 2010 at 5:08:54 PM
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Quote: Wizard
Sports betting: I think I've provided some good stuff on sports, especially football. However, that topic gets as deep as the ocean, and I could still go down much deeper. A problem is that I have trouble getting data on what I want to analyze. For example, I've wanted to analyze 5-inning lines in baseball for years, but I can't find inning by inning box score data in a database form.
So, with that, I throw it open to the audience. Any suggestions?
Sorry I came late to this one, but an idea or two on sports:
On football, maybe analyze what are the most predictive factors. Last year I made NFL picks on my then-personal blog (with plans to do so here this year.) I found lesser stats like "yards per attempt" were pretty good. Now, I know one season and not even every game is not projectable, but if you can get your hands on the data for a large enough sample size.........
But football is done to death and anyone who knows betting sports knows you can't make regular money betting only the NFL since there are too few games. Baseball has ten times as many games and action available all but two days for half the year. Baseball is also known as a stat-junkies heaven. If you could pick a stat at a time and show what matters and what does not, what moneyline gives value on an underdog and when is the moneyline so far out there is no chance (+250?) I know some of this is available at WoO but keep it going.
Same with NBA and NHL. And I'd like to see some betting stategies for "grinders" who want to bet maybe 1% of a bankroll at a time but are looking to do good over a whole season vs one or two "jackpots."
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:02:39 PM
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Quote: konceptumIf JB is willing to take any suggestions, not that he really needs any because I do think he does a fabulous job, the only thing I would wish for is a mobile site.
I second this. If I'm in a casino and see a new game that I sort of remember being analyzed on WoO, but can't recall the strategy, a mobile site (or app) would hit the spot.
September 7th, 2010 at 3:54:19 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanI think you are low here. When I was in craps dealer class I asked this exact question and was told they "would like" 80 or so rolls per hour. 2 minutes per roll would be an eternity.
I asked this very question of a floor supervisor at Chinook Winds this weekend. She said they average 45s/roll (or 80 rolls/hour), and she considered her dealers "break-in". She did allow that in a more experienced pit, 120 rolls/hour or 30s/roll might be closer to the norm.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
September 7th, 2010 at 4:15:42 PM
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Assigning comps to craps players must be a bitch.
You have some bets - such as the field - that are decided on every roll.
Then, you have other bets, such as the line bets, that are only decided when a specific number comes up, or a seven comes up. And, in addition can be placed or taken down at any time. Even if they are taken down, they can still appear on the layout and be mistakenly interpreted as action in play.
Finally, you have the Pass/Don't pass bets which must remain in play (well, I guess technically you can be an idiot and take down your Don't Pass bet) until a final decision on the roll is determined.
The total action - from a comps standpoint - must be based upon the average bet times the number of decisions per hour, not the number of rolls per hour.
How the hell do they keep it all straight?
You have some bets - such as the field - that are decided on every roll.
Then, you have other bets, such as the line bets, that are only decided when a specific number comes up, or a seven comes up. And, in addition can be placed or taken down at any time. Even if they are taken down, they can still appear on the layout and be mistakenly interpreted as action in play.
Finally, you have the Pass/Don't pass bets which must remain in play (well, I guess technically you can be an idiot and take down your Don't Pass bet) until a final decision on the roll is determined.
The total action - from a comps standpoint - must be based upon the average bet times the number of decisions per hour, not the number of rolls per hour.
How the hell do they keep it all straight?
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. - Niels Bohr
September 7th, 2010 at 4:18:31 PM
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Quote: WizardI'm kicking around various ideas in my head for WoO, but nothing in the works. One idea I'm considering is doing instructional videos on YouTube. I prefer to stick to analyzing games, but as I've lamented, I am running dry on games to analyze.
It's going to get harder to obtain patents on new games after some recent court rulings and USPTO changes, so the volume may decrease further. Plus, the rules have recently changed in NV to let the NGCB charge new-game fees and require trials for side bets. I don't know whether the NGCB has actually changed their process (I just asked, stay tuned) but if they have there will be a dramatic drop in the number of new side bets coming down the pipe.
That said, what's your criteria for deciding when to analyze a new game? Are you looking for live casino placements, and if so, how many (and where)?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
September 9th, 2010 at 6:54:10 PM
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I enjoy the various reviews and articles on the site. So I think it would
be fun to read what the Wiz's take is on other gambling areas, like the mid-west.
It would kind of be a Wizard Roadshow feature.
For example, I've heard that French Lick Casino in Indiana is very, very
nice. And I can vouch for that for Belterra, which is also in Indiana.
Maybe this wouldn't be of interest to everyone. But I do see a lot of
non-Vegas comments in the forums.
How often do you have the opportunity / interest to see or stay at
Casinos outside of Nevada ?
This isn't a new career or anything, just a side project.
be fun to read what the Wiz's take is on other gambling areas, like the mid-west.
It would kind of be a Wizard Roadshow feature.
For example, I've heard that French Lick Casino in Indiana is very, very
nice. And I can vouch for that for Belterra, which is also in Indiana.
Maybe this wouldn't be of interest to everyone. But I do see a lot of
non-Vegas comments in the forums.
How often do you have the opportunity / interest to see or stay at
Casinos outside of Nevada ?
This isn't a new career or anything, just a side project.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
September 13th, 2010 at 4:06:05 AM
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Quote: KelmoHi Wizard,
Here's one that you could sink your teeth into, and it probably would be of interest to both the players and the casinos:
There is a growing debate amongst casino operators and slot machine vendors about the cost of freeplay. The IGT system, for instance, allows casinos to credit a player's account with x amount of freeplay, which they can wager just as real credits. When they lose, they lose. However, when they win the get the freeplay and the win returned as real credits. This is my understanding of freeplay (I'm actually a Table Games guy), but was asked the question of cost.
Here's how I see it:
If it was a matchplay on tables, per $1 value the player would gain probabilityofwin * return (not considering the matched wager). So for roulette even-money 18/38 * 1 = 0.47 and single number 1/38 * 35 = 0.92.
If it was a non-negotiable chip that had to be played until lost, then the value would increase asymptotically to a higher value, due to the possibilities of repetitive wins.
The difference between the two is that a player can walk after the matchplay, but is obligated to play out the non-negotiable.
However, for free play the player not only recieves his winning credit, but also recieves his freeplay back as a real credit (unless I misunderstood how it was explained). If that was the case, the value would be probabilityofwin * (return + 1). In the case of a roulette freeplay (if there was such a case), the gain would be 1-HA for any wager on the layout.
In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.
These freeplays are given sometimes as rewards, sometimes based on play, etc. What value is this to the player and what cost is it to the casino?
Beyond Coupons by James Grosjean... will explain the Promo Chips/Freeplay (though not named Freeplay its the same basic theory)
September 13th, 2010 at 4:51:42 AM
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As you've stated, the casino's are weak on Proposition Bets for the Race & Sports, and there is no real reason to point out a highly lucrative (at times) wager. The casinos pretty much know this and allow smaller top wagers and figure the average joe will more than make up for the few "smarts".
Poker has a lot of theoretical ground left to explore, much of it Post Flop in HE or any other game you wish to choose. Hardly ground-breaking, but a project.
Can go explore with math: example- probability of winning x units with y bankroll vs. z house advantage. Can attack Baccarat, much like previously believed un countable Spanish 21 prior to Katarina Walker, a combinatorial analysis of particular Baccarat subsets reveals huge advantages to one side or the other (this calculator is even available online). However with Baccarat- if an intense count method is identified- you're likely to keep that one secret as well ;-).
More exploring with math: the value of dealer errors, effect on house advantage of loss rebates (these diminish over number of trials but still have an impact), how a $25 higher average bet rating hits comp value, etc.
With your connections could also start a series of "inside" stories from both sides of the felt that aren't full of BS. (PM for an offer on this one :P )
To truly break ground and shock people most of the time its looking at the same problem millions of others have already adressed and written off but with a new spin. At one time Blackjack was unbeatable (merely two generations ago), then the carnival pit, followed by the one armed bandits, spanish 21, three card poker, let it ride, mississippi stud, pai gow poker (with good rules), etc. Sometimes the dumbest possible option or suggestion sheds light on a subject in an amazingly new way.....
Well, lost my train of thought somewhere along the way...
Poker has a lot of theoretical ground left to explore, much of it Post Flop in HE or any other game you wish to choose. Hardly ground-breaking, but a project.
Can go explore with math: example- probability of winning x units with y bankroll vs. z house advantage. Can attack Baccarat, much like previously believed un countable Spanish 21 prior to Katarina Walker, a combinatorial analysis of particular Baccarat subsets reveals huge advantages to one side or the other (this calculator is even available online). However with Baccarat- if an intense count method is identified- you're likely to keep that one secret as well ;-).
More exploring with math: the value of dealer errors, effect on house advantage of loss rebates (these diminish over number of trials but still have an impact), how a $25 higher average bet rating hits comp value, etc.
With your connections could also start a series of "inside" stories from both sides of the felt that aren't full of BS. (PM for an offer on this one :P )
To truly break ground and shock people most of the time its looking at the same problem millions of others have already adressed and written off but with a new spin. At one time Blackjack was unbeatable (merely two generations ago), then the carnival pit, followed by the one armed bandits, spanish 21, three card poker, let it ride, mississippi stud, pai gow poker (with good rules), etc. Sometimes the dumbest possible option or suggestion sheds light on a subject in an amazingly new way.....
Well, lost my train of thought somewhere along the way...
September 14th, 2010 at 9:34:30 PM
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About promo chips, I have some material about that on my page Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips. That is about all I think the average player needs to know about them. Those in the business are welcome to use my site too, but they are not my intended audience.
About reports from the road, I'd love too. However, I'm not sure the demand is there for the information. My gut says to not diversify too much.
I'm not big on analyzing risk of ruin, betting systems, and probability of reaching certain winning goals. That is not the direction I try to lead my readers, although they go that way all the time.
For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.
About reports from the road, I'd love too. However, I'm not sure the demand is there for the information. My gut says to not diversify too much.
I'm not big on analyzing risk of ruin, betting systems, and probability of reaching certain winning goals. That is not the direction I try to lead my readers, although they go that way all the time.
For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 14th, 2010 at 9:37:00 PM
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Why a her? Mike I would make a great actor dealer! I have a tuxedo!
September 14th, 2010 at 11:01:06 PM
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Quote: NicksGamingStuffWhy a her? Mike I would make a great actor dealer! I have a tuxedo!
If you really mean it, I'd be up for that. I'm thinking of asking Lisa, who is seen in many of the hotel reviews, to play the role of the student.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 14th, 2010 at 11:33:40 PM
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I know this is tad self-serving...How about a 'truck drivers' guide to Las Vegas somewhere on one of the sites. I know there are hundreds of drivers that love to gamble (most of which haven't a clue as to what they are doing).
I personally would enjoy gathering the information if I thought a little slice of space could be dedicated to it. POerhaps it could bring a new segment of gamblers to the site who could really use the info.
I personally would enjoy gathering the information if I thought a little slice of space could be dedicated to it. POerhaps it could bring a new segment of gamblers to the site who could really use the info.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 15th, 2010 at 4:17:50 PM
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Quote: WizardFor now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.
I have to agree with what someone else said, don't just go the hottie route on the dealer. Instead use the hotties as the students. Get some sort of dealers who are actual dealers of one sort or another. It would make it more interesting if the dealer has some camera-personality.
In addition to instruction on the rules consider showing people game etiquette. Though I enjoy dealing craps at the monte carlo nights, there is so much that newbie players do incorrectly I don't even want to think hwo they would be treated doing it at a real table.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
October 14th, 2010 at 11:21:47 PM
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Quote: Wizard
For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.
If It wasnt for the slightly prohibitive travel time my wife and I would have been more than happy to help with the videos.
As a small side project, a glossary of gambling/gambling maths terms, such as variance, house edge etc might be good for the newbies, as well as some articles on performing your own gambling analysis, such as how to calulate house edge for yourself.
A deeper investigation of the comps systems of various places might be nice.
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October 26th, 2010 at 4:19:27 PM
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Quote: WizardI've never said this publicly before, but I'm starting to run dry on things to write about when it comes to gambling. So, I'm throwing it open to suggestions.
Not new, except for format, but have you ever considered putting stuff you've already done on Youtube? Windows (and I think Mac too) already comes with a program capable of enough fancy editing features, that all you really need to do is become familiar with it. In one evening or two, you can learn enough to use all the basic functions, and not much more to make it look more professional with effects and transitions. It's not too hard to create relatively simply animations if that would be useful too for some sort of demo (though there is no animation program with the Windows one, you can still manage simple frame animations that are crude but work fine)
Sanitized for Your Protection
October 26th, 2010 at 4:21:11 PM
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Oops, just saw the above post --hah.
Oh well.
Oh well.
Sanitized for Your Protection
June 24th, 2011 at 9:04:43 PM
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How about determining the optimal payout percentage and/or payout frequency on a game/slot machine? If the payout percentage is too low, a player will lose interest in the game in a shorter amount of time verses a higher payout percentage. How much longer would a person play a game given a higher payout percentage? Is there a point at which casino profits could be maximized? How about player satisfaction? Is there increased risk of addiction given higher payout percentages or payout frequencies?
Another thing to consider is the amout of payout in relation to the amount wagered, and how the two are related. Which is a better money maker over the long run, small frequent payoffs or the possibility of an occasional larger "longshot" jackpot. For example, more lottery tickets sold when the jackpot gets over a given threshold of magnitude. What might the thersholds be?
How about ranking the casino games with regard to these measurements. Would games with similar payout frequency and similar payout vs wager ratios be appealing to the same players? Would these measurements be useful to a novice or casual player when choosing which games to try?
Another thing to consider is the amout of payout in relation to the amount wagered, and how the two are related. Which is a better money maker over the long run, small frequent payoffs or the possibility of an occasional larger "longshot" jackpot. For example, more lottery tickets sold when the jackpot gets over a given threshold of magnitude. What might the thersholds be?
How about ranking the casino games with regard to these measurements. Would games with similar payout frequency and similar payout vs wager ratios be appealing to the same players? Would these measurements be useful to a novice or casual player when choosing which games to try?
June 24th, 2011 at 9:19:39 PM
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Go with what is now popular : Penny slots. There are so many questions that players do not understand and are curious about. How do bonus's work? are they really random? Are the payoffs per line the same? What bankroll is required for different betting levels? Pix of insides of machines? Maybe a penny machine website with news of latest penny machines, where they are located, reports from your field agents. Slew of books and websites for BJ, poker etc None I know of dedicated to penny slots. Surely Slot Manufacturesr would provide previews , pix, etc. I am sure you have graphics like the different Wiz of Oz machines, bonuses on each, features like vibrating chairs, etc. Beatles might sue if you named it Penny Lane but The Penny Wizard or
Chump Change ( LOL) might work?????
Chump Change ( LOL) might work?????
June 25th, 2011 at 7:42:55 AM
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My wife often can't wait to tell our daughters about a new penny slot she has discovered? Would be great if they could go online and play a demo ?
June 25th, 2011 at 11:18:46 AM
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Quote: buzzpaffGo with what is now popular : Penny slots. There are so many questions that players do not understand and are curious about. How do bonus's work? are they really random? Are the payoffs per line the same? What bankroll is required for different betting levels? Pix of insides of machines? Maybe a penny machine website with news of latest penny machines, where they are located, reports from your field agents. Slew of books and websites for BJ, poker etc None I know of dedicated to penny slots. Surely Slot Manufacturesr would provide previews , pix, etc. I am sure you have graphics like the different Wiz of Oz machines, bonuses on each, features like vibrating chairs, etc. Beatles might sue if you named it Penny Lane but The Penny Wizard or
Chump Change ( LOL) might work?????
Best name for a new wizard site is: The Wizard of Slots.
