New Project Ideas
August 15th, 2010 at 4:28:48 PM
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I've never said this publicly before, but I'm starting to run dry on things to write about when it comes to gambling. So, I'm throwing it open to suggestions. I'd like to do something that will make a big splash, but small project ideas are welcome too. Here are some ideas I've had myself:
Poker: I know I'm weak in this area. That is because I'm personally a weak player, and everybody and his brother is already writing about the game. If I'm going to tackle poker I want some kind of fresh angle to take. I've thought about analyzing a simplified version of poker, like one-card poker, to get at the essence of the game, but (a) it has been done before, (b) it would be a lot harder than it seems, (c) I don't think many people would care.
Sports betting: I think I've provided some good stuff on sports, especially football. However, that topic gets as deep as the ocean, and I could still go down much deeper. A problem is that I have trouble getting data on what I want to analyze. For example, I've wanted to analyze 5-inning lines in baseball for years, but I can't find inning by inning box score data in a database form.
Blackjack: I still have never done much with writing about card counting. There is already so much out there, that I would just be re-inventing the wheel. There is no way I could improve upon what some other writers like http://www.blackjackincolor.com/ ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>Norm Wattenberger have already done. I also think counting is not a strong advantage play any longer, and I don't want to lead my readers down a false path of riches with that.
Hole Carding: This is a ripe area for advantage play. I touch on it in some games, but it is worthy of discussion in just about every hand-held card game. On the other hand, it is a lot of work, and that topic is already James Grosjean's pond. I don't think I could top what he has in Beyond Counting -- Exhibit CAA on that topic.
More Surveys: One of my proudest accomplishments was my slot machine survey. I've thought about doing the same kind of thing in other games. For example, it wouldn't be hard to do so a complete video poker survey of Vegas. However, anybody can walk up and down the Strip and write down pay tables. It would just be a lot of busy work. I've also thought about completing my air quality survey. However, that is sensitive to the day and time I actually do the study. It wouldn't be fair to compare one casino surveyed at 10:00 PM on a Saturday night, as another one surveyed at 7:00 AM on a Wednesday morning.
So, with that, I throw it open to the audience. Any suggestions?
Poker: I know I'm weak in this area. That is because I'm personally a weak player, and everybody and his brother is already writing about the game. If I'm going to tackle poker I want some kind of fresh angle to take. I've thought about analyzing a simplified version of poker, like one-card poker, to get at the essence of the game, but (a) it has been done before, (b) it would be a lot harder than it seems, (c) I don't think many people would care.
Sports betting: I think I've provided some good stuff on sports, especially football. However, that topic gets as deep as the ocean, and I could still go down much deeper. A problem is that I have trouble getting data on what I want to analyze. For example, I've wanted to analyze 5-inning lines in baseball for years, but I can't find inning by inning box score data in a database form.
Blackjack: I still have never done much with writing about card counting. There is already so much out there, that I would just be re-inventing the wheel. There is no way I could improve upon what some other writers like http://www.blackjackincolor.com/ ' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>Norm Wattenberger have already done. I also think counting is not a strong advantage play any longer, and I don't want to lead my readers down a false path of riches with that.
Hole Carding: This is a ripe area for advantage play. I touch on it in some games, but it is worthy of discussion in just about every hand-held card game. On the other hand, it is a lot of work, and that topic is already James Grosjean's pond. I don't think I could top what he has in Beyond Counting -- Exhibit CAA on that topic.
More Surveys: One of my proudest accomplishments was my slot machine survey. I've thought about doing the same kind of thing in other games. For example, it wouldn't be hard to do so a complete video poker survey of Vegas. However, anybody can walk up and down the Strip and write down pay tables. It would just be a lot of busy work. I've also thought about completing my air quality survey. However, that is sensitive to the day and time I actually do the study. It wouldn't be fair to compare one casino surveyed at 10:00 PM on a Saturday night, as another one surveyed at 7:00 AM on a Wednesday morning.
So, with that, I throw it open to the audience. Any suggestions?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 15th, 2010 at 4:59:51 PM
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You should be able to get linescore data in a Wiz-friendly format in one of these two places:
http://www.retrosheet.org/gamelogs/index.html
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/
As a baseball fan, I hate 5 inning lines; as a gambler I think they're fun...
http://www.retrosheet.org/gamelogs/index.html
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/
As a baseball fan, I hate 5 inning lines; as a gambler I think they're fun...
Insurance is closed.
August 15th, 2010 at 6:34:53 PM
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More on prop bets like in the Disputed prop bet thread you started.
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
August 15th, 2010 at 6:47:50 PM
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I would like to read some articles about the history of each casino game. For example, how Pai Gow Tiles came about and managed to survive for 900 years, how craps evolved into its current state, etc...
Many thanks, Wizard, for your work. I always memorize your game strategies before I play them in the casinos near me.
Many thanks, Wizard, for your work. I always memorize your game strategies before I play them in the casinos near me.
August 15th, 2010 at 6:55:34 PM
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Thanks for the baseball links. I may be able to do something with the first one. It would be much better if it listed the money lines and posted total for each game.
About the props, I consider one of my strongest areas NFL props. However, that is one of those things that is too good to write about. I'm also sworn to secrecy on some of my strategies.
About the props, I consider one of my strongest areas NFL props. However, that is one of those things that is too good to write about. I'm also sworn to secrecy on some of my strategies.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 15th, 2010 at 6:55:39 PM
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Possible poker angles:
1. Complete drawing odds for games other than Hold'em on wizardofodds. Mainly mechanical, but I think you'd get some traffic given how little is around on games like Badugi.
1a. "Interesting Stats" for common games. In Hold'em the deal must be six handed for there to be a 50% chance or better that someone else has an ace too. That's useless trivia unless you're at one of the popular six-max tables online, because anytime someone sits out your naked ace leaps up in value. Probably combined with #1 on a single page giving both disaster odds (like flush over flush) as well as helpful stats. (Like how much having extra people drawing hurts you in lowball)
1b. I've always wanted a table of medians for the popular games which took into account reasonable starting hands.
2. How much difference is there in variance between games at equal stakes/skill? Everyone knows Badugi and Triple Draw are much wilder than Hold'em and Draw, but how much?
3. What the hell is the value of a poker tournament buyin to a skilled player? NOBODY knows. Widely accepted estimates put it at about 4x for Hold'em 2x for other games. What intrigued me about it originally was that a lot of estimates seemed to be equal to the odds of dominated hands. If that's true there'd be a huge value to say draw tournaments where you can really have someone deep in a hole at the start of the hand.
5. A page on poker fallacies if there are enough of them. ie, in stud if you see two aces on the deal it's more likely somebody has aces than if you see one. Though most people assume the opposite.
1. Complete drawing odds for games other than Hold'em on wizardofodds. Mainly mechanical, but I think you'd get some traffic given how little is around on games like Badugi.
1a. "Interesting Stats" for common games. In Hold'em the deal must be six handed for there to be a 50% chance or better that someone else has an ace too. That's useless trivia unless you're at one of the popular six-max tables online, because anytime someone sits out your naked ace leaps up in value. Probably combined with #1 on a single page giving both disaster odds (like flush over flush) as well as helpful stats. (Like how much having extra people drawing hurts you in lowball)
1b. I've always wanted a table of medians for the popular games which took into account reasonable starting hands.
2. How much difference is there in variance between games at equal stakes/skill? Everyone knows Badugi and Triple Draw are much wilder than Hold'em and Draw, but how much?
3. What the hell is the value of a poker tournament buyin to a skilled player? NOBODY knows. Widely accepted estimates put it at about 4x for Hold'em 2x for other games. What intrigued me about it originally was that a lot of estimates seemed to be equal to the odds of dominated hands. If that's true there'd be a huge value to say draw tournaments where you can really have someone deep in a hole at the start of the hand.
5. A page on poker fallacies if there are enough of them. ie, in stud if you see two aces on the deal it's more likely somebody has aces than if you see one. Though most people assume the opposite.
August 15th, 2010 at 7:17:57 PM
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The thrill of it all. Everyone around here treats the excitement of the bet like it was something dirty, something unsavory because it isn't quantifiable, because there are no equations for it. But if it wasn't for the thrill, we wouldn't do it. I'll sit through god knows how many 7 outs for that one time that the shooter is binging, I have just a little bit too many chips out there, my points are paying and riding, and the dice are tossed and the next roll is in the air but not yet decided....
If it was just about the numbers, we'd go to work instead. The numbers matter, but the thrill is why.
If it was just about the numbers, we'd go to work instead. The numbers matter, but the thrill is why.
A falling knife has no handle.
August 15th, 2010 at 7:42:34 PM
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Ideas....
Poker - maybe some coverage of short stacking big bet games...............I have seen some info, but I am pretty sure that the really good stuff isn't covered in any available texts
Sportsbetting - there is a lot that could be covered, maybe baseball or basketball props, basic pricing ideas, stuff that isn't really out there, but isn't too terribly costly to anyone out in the market........using Poisson distribution, etc...........its out there if you look, but nothing too specific
Blackjack/Table Games - Holecarding is an area that I am very interested in, but haven't put much study into yet......but what about extending (mathematically) the work that Max Rubin did in Comp City about the value of comps v house edge on various games.........and go down that angle, how free drinks lower house edge, yada, yada, yada.......
As far as your study, how about something that compares VP paytables to actual hold.........my belief is that casinos do themselves a disservice by not offerring +EV machines, because 99.9% of people don't play the games anywhere close to perfect and they can make plenty of money if marketing their machines properly with these +EV situations.
Poker - maybe some coverage of short stacking big bet games...............I have seen some info, but I am pretty sure that the really good stuff isn't covered in any available texts
Sportsbetting - there is a lot that could be covered, maybe baseball or basketball props, basic pricing ideas, stuff that isn't really out there, but isn't too terribly costly to anyone out in the market........using Poisson distribution, etc...........its out there if you look, but nothing too specific
Blackjack/Table Games - Holecarding is an area that I am very interested in, but haven't put much study into yet......but what about extending (mathematically) the work that Max Rubin did in Comp City about the value of comps v house edge on various games.........and go down that angle, how free drinks lower house edge, yada, yada, yada.......
As far as your study, how about something that compares VP paytables to actual hold.........my belief is that casinos do themselves a disservice by not offerring +EV machines, because 99.9% of people don't play the games anywhere close to perfect and they can make plenty of money if marketing their machines properly with these +EV situations.
August 15th, 2010 at 8:20:13 PM
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Beats me.
Do you want to focus on the Online world. Particularly online poker rooms. There have been a few scandals, many detected by statistical methods, not just proven by them. What audit trails exist? Which sites have external audits?
Craps simulators for trying out strategies?
Do you want to focus on the Online world. Particularly online poker rooms. There have been a few scandals, many detected by statistical methods, not just proven by them. What audit trails exist? Which sites have external audits?
Craps simulators for trying out strategies?
August 15th, 2010 at 8:23:01 PM
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I know that you state that other websites have done a good job of explaining things such as poker or card counting, however, I wouldn't mind seeing your reviews of those websites, or your opinions of those websites. Your voice in the matter would make me more interested in reading what those websites have to say.
August 15th, 2010 at 9:01:16 PM
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The video poker survey has been done, and is available on vpFree2.com. It isn't always completely up-to-date, but it does a pretty good job. However, "advantage" video poker is slowly dying (or, more accurately, is being choked to death). So there's nothing much to be done there any more.
The same sentiment applies to blackjack, which is no longer a beatable game in Vegas.
What I have not seen anywhere is a running, updated database of casino promotions. Scot Krause writes a weekly column for American Casino Guide, but it isn't anything close to comprehensive. I think that one of the reasons such a guide doesn't exist is that if someone discovers a juicy promotion, he wants to keep it to himself rather than "out" it, in the hope that the promotion will thereby have a longer life.
Though I assume you only wish to deal with things Vegas, there is NO promo database for casinos elsewhere in the country--things like slot club benefits, sign-up bonuses, ongoing and intermittently occuring promotions, etc. If I were going to, say, Gulfport, Tunica, or AC (may I be killed by lightning if I ever contemplate going there again, but I'm speaking hypothetically), it might be nice to see who is offering the best deals, rather than going from casino to casino (which can't be done on foot, in most such places).
Another possible project is an up-to-date survey of the best room deals and offers in Vegas. All that I know exists on the Web is the LVA once-a-month update, and that's for subscribers only anyway.
The same sentiment applies to blackjack, which is no longer a beatable game in Vegas.
What I have not seen anywhere is a running, updated database of casino promotions. Scot Krause writes a weekly column for American Casino Guide, but it isn't anything close to comprehensive. I think that one of the reasons such a guide doesn't exist is that if someone discovers a juicy promotion, he wants to keep it to himself rather than "out" it, in the hope that the promotion will thereby have a longer life.
Though I assume you only wish to deal with things Vegas, there is NO promo database for casinos elsewhere in the country--things like slot club benefits, sign-up bonuses, ongoing and intermittently occuring promotions, etc. If I were going to, say, Gulfport, Tunica, or AC (may I be killed by lightning if I ever contemplate going there again, but I'm speaking hypothetically), it might be nice to see who is offering the best deals, rather than going from casino to casino (which can't be done on foot, in most such places).
Another possible project is an up-to-date survey of the best room deals and offers in Vegas. All that I know exists on the Web is the LVA once-a-month update, and that's for subscribers only anyway.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 15th, 2010 at 9:10:42 PM
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Really BJ isnt beatable? What about games with super low house advatages and 3:2 single deck like at EC? I dont think any casino game could provide a living but at least some small over all win or brake even game.
I would be willing to volunteer surveying Indian casinos in Northern CA for the site if you want.
I would be willing to volunteer surveying Indian casinos in Northern CA for the site if you want.
August 15th, 2010 at 9:22:40 PM
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Quote: NicksGamingStuffReally BJ isnt beatable? What about games with super low house advatages and 3:2 single deck like at EC? I dont think any casino game could provide a living but at least some small over all win or brake even game.
I would be willing to volunteer surveying Indian casinos in Northern CA for the site if you want.
No, they aren't beatable. Even the EC game is still -0.2% off the top, and you can't even get away with a 1-3 bet spread there any more. Plus, they deal two hands and shuffle most of the time. I suppose that a 1-2 spread and watching the count like a hawk MIGHT enable you to drag yourself into slightly positive territory. But at the stakes you would be able to play with without drawing any heat, you would be making about $3/hr if you were lucky.
There are also some shoe games in town that have decent rules, but you hardly ever see decent penetration. And since the vast majority of those shoe games are six-deck, you're fighting an -0.71% uphill battle. This starts to be significant enough that your minimum bets (which you would be making well over half the time) carry a significant cost as well.
In order to make any kind of decent money you have to spread 6-1 or better, which will eventually get you heat. It just isn't worth the trouble any more.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 15th, 2010 at 10:10:25 PM
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Quote: mkl654321Another possible project is an up-to-date survey of the best room deals and offers in Vegas. All that I know exists on the Web is the LVA once-a-month update, and that's for subscribers only anyway.
I think it depends on what you're looking for there. Are you interested in deals that include comps, or just general public deals? A pretty comprehensive list of non-players-card-required deals is found at http://www.smartervegas.com
I agree that it'd be pretty sweet, though
August 15th, 2010 at 10:33:13 PM
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Quote: WizardSo, with that, I throw it open to the audience. Any suggestions?
How about an article on how to pick a game & betting amount for a given bankroll? I think a lot of new gamblers that don't have a lot of experience and a limited bankroll (most people I'd think) wonder how to pick a game. For this article, you could do things like:
- Game recommendation tool. Inputs: Bankroll, Acceptable Risk of Ruin chance, desired play length; then spit out games & max bet levels that match this goal.
- Risk of Ruin calculator.
- Bell curves of various game results
August 15th, 2010 at 11:27:18 PM
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Maybe something to do with chip collections like photos/history of various casino chips or a forum to trade with others.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:16:30 AM
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Quote: bluefireI think it depends on what you're looking for there. Are you interested in deals that include comps, or just general public deals? A pretty comprehensive list of non-players-card-required deals is found at http://www.smartervegas.com
I agree that it'd be pretty sweet, though
I'm not sure how the information would be collated, but it would also be great to get surveys of what room offers casinos had extended after a play-and-stay--like "I played quarter slots for about ten hours on a weekend in June and they sent me an offer for two free room nights plus $20 in food comps"...that sort of thing.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 16th, 2010 at 8:09:12 AM
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"Sworn to secrecy" ?Quote: WizardAbout the props, I consider one of my strongest areas NFL props. However, that is one of those things that is too good to write about. I'm also sworn to secrecy on some of my strategies.
LOL! That sounds like the kind of line that a snake-oil salesman would use.
More likely that its hard to compile because promotions are very short lived to begin with. Half the promotions would expire before the database is updated.Quote: mkl654321What I have not seen anywhere is a running, updated database of casino promotions. Scot Krause writes a weekly column for American Casino Guide, but it isn't anything close to comprehensive. I think that one of the reasons such a guide doesn't exist is that if someone discovers a juicy promotion, he wants to keep it to himself rather than "out" it, in the hope that the promotion will thereby have a longer life.
Besides, as was shown in the recent thread about the Mohegan Sun's Triple-Down promtion, even the pit crew was confused. So getting accurate info would be a challenge.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 16th, 2010 at 8:22:50 AM
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What I think would be really useful to a gambler (recreational type) would be a grid showing the major vegas properties color coded by how loose/tight the gambling is. Table games, slots, and VP would be highlighted for the lowroller (=<25$ bet table, <=1$ bet slot/VP) and higher roller (>25$ bet table, >1$ bet slot/VP). The table could also show how the property is changing over time (each survey). For instance, each of my last 3 trips to Caesar's Palace, I've noticed the 25c VP paytables decrease from 9-5 to 8-5 to now mostly 7-5. I figure that slot payout must be decreasing too as they 'tighten' up the place (and yes, it's driving me to non-harrah's properties).
You would probably have to do an updated version of your slot survey as the last one is very out of date, but i'm guessing that a multiline penny slot would make gathering the results faster and cheaper. The key is comparing properties, a penny slot payout is a good proxy for other denominations and it's likely that a property that pays 1% more on penny pays more on higher donominations. For instance, it would be very interesting to know that I could get a better payout by just crossing the street from CP to Bally's (using same player card) assuming that all harrah's properties are not identical (or maybe find out that all harrah's properties are equally sucky).
To summerize, a grid focused primarily on stip properties that ranks them strickly by gambling criteria. good odds, good table minimums, good comps etc. and shows how the properties are changing over time. Since what is/was good in 2000 may be horrible in 2010. Having relatively 'fresh' data on your website should drive traffic and keep the casino's a bit more honest.
You would probably have to do an updated version of your slot survey as the last one is very out of date, but i'm guessing that a multiline penny slot would make gathering the results faster and cheaper. The key is comparing properties, a penny slot payout is a good proxy for other denominations and it's likely that a property that pays 1% more on penny pays more on higher donominations. For instance, it would be very interesting to know that I could get a better payout by just crossing the street from CP to Bally's (using same player card) assuming that all harrah's properties are not identical (or maybe find out that all harrah's properties are equally sucky).
To summerize, a grid focused primarily on stip properties that ranks them strickly by gambling criteria. good odds, good table minimums, good comps etc. and shows how the properties are changing over time. Since what is/was good in 2000 may be horrible in 2010. Having relatively 'fresh' data on your website should drive traffic and keep the casino's a bit more honest.
August 16th, 2010 at 10:43:29 AM
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Thanks for all the suggestions thus far. Thanks also for the offer to help with Northern CA casinos, Nick. I prefer to stick to math analysis as much as possible. Thus, I'm not big on discussing comps and betting systems. That is more the domain of the Las' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/index.cfm?&CFID=36869007&CFTOKEN=24969174]Las Vegas Advisor. Plus, that information changes so frequently.
I kind of like Brindle's idea. I've thought of doing something like that for years. What I envision is a "best of Vegas" kind of list, where I would rank the casinos game by game for the loosest odds. For some I might further break it down by small/medium/large bettor. I think it would be a valuable resource for recreational gamblers. On the down side, it would be very tedious gathering information, and not very challenging mentally.
What I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?
I kind of like Brindle's idea. I've thought of doing something like that for years. What I envision is a "best of Vegas" kind of list, where I would rank the casinos game by game for the loosest odds. For some I might further break it down by small/medium/large bettor. I think it would be a valuable resource for recreational gamblers. On the down side, it would be very tedious gathering information, and not very challenging mentally.
What I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 16th, 2010 at 11:30:39 AM
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Quote: WizardThanks for all the suggestions thus far. Thanks also for the offer to help with Northern CA casinos, Nick. I prefer to stick to math analysis as much as possible. Thus, I'm not big on discussing comps and betting systems. That is more the domain of the Las' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/index.cfm?&CFID=36869007&CFTOKEN=24969174]Las Vegas Advisor. Plus, that information changes so frequently.
I kind of like Brindle's idea. I've thought of doing something like that for years. What I envision is a "best of Vegas" kind of list, where I would rank the casinos game by game for the loosest odds. For some I might further break it down by small/medium/large bettor. I think it would be a valuable resource for recreational gamblers. On the down side, it would be very tedious gathering information, and not very challenging mentally.
What I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?
How can you break new ground mathematically when the math itself is over 400 years old? Just about every possible gambling scenario/situation/problem was picked apart before George Washington was born. I don't see how you could do anything that hasn't been done to death already--not in the gambling field, anyway.
I therefore suggest quantifying the heretofore unquantifiable: analyze casino games in terms of customer satisfaction. What games give people the most fun for their money? Where does a casino dollar give people the most "utility", in the economic sense? What motivates people to play or not play in a given casino--or on a given game? Which games hold players' attentions the longest (and are thus most desirable for the casino to offer)?
I believe that such an analysis would be more germane to what the "best" casino game to play might be than a strict analysis of house percentages. After all, if people relied on that criterion, Harrah's properties would be completely empty. I remember being asked by a friend what the best way to spend $100 in the casino would be. I told him to bet $44 on the morning football game, $44 on the afternoon football game, and buy a $12 parlay card and pick some random other games, then kick back in the sports book, slurp down a bunch of free drinks, and root for his team(s). he had a great time, killed several hours (and several drinks), munched some hot dogs, and not only that, won both bets (but not the parlay card), for a profit of $68. I think he would have been perfectly satisfied if he had lost, though. The point is, for a negative EV of about $10, he got a whole day's worth of entertainment. Similarly, the LOL in the Keno lounge might be getting a LOT more out of her $20 than her counterpart who runs it through a quarter slot, even though the Keno game is mathematically twice as bad to play.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 16th, 2010 at 11:42:09 AM
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Given your strength in football, I suggest running with that. Analyze key games, and comment on each weeks match-ups, perhaps throwing in a few tips on strong lines, historic trends, and even a, "Wizard's Lock of The Week(c)". It takes a lot of work to keep up with things weekly, but I think you have access to resources that could make it viable.
If not a weekly update on all teams,perhaps you could just concentrate on two or three teams for the entire season (but I think you still end up doing a lot of work to keep up with other happenings in the league.)
If not a weekly update on all teams,perhaps you could just concentrate on two or three teams for the entire season (but I think you still end up doing a lot of work to keep up with other happenings in the league.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 16th, 2010 at 11:46:25 AM
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I'm about to say something which is thoroughly grounded in ignorance, as I know little of math and nothing at all about what I'm thinking of. Anyway:
Is there anything interesting mathematically in fantasy sports leagues?
I know exactly nothing about fantasy sports leagues, beyond the mere fact of their existence.
And this concludes the part of the day when I make a fool out of myself.
Is there anything interesting mathematically in fantasy sports leagues?
I know exactly nothing about fantasy sports leagues, beyond the mere fact of their existence.
And this concludes the part of the day when I make a fool out of myself.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 16th, 2010 at 12:13:03 PM
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I would like your take on the concept and application of Bayesian Inference.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:18:41 PM
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How about a monthly guest for a Q&A? People in the casino business,city or state officials,gambling attorneys etc.
There are a lot of interesting people out there-the list could be endless.
Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.
There are a lot of interesting people out there-the list could be endless.
Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.
August 16th, 2010 at 1:43:30 PM
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Talk about reaching to the bottom of the barrel!Quote: benbakdoffHeck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.
That is, unless his stupidity on the show is just an act. And everyone else is playing along.
But I have a hard time believing it's an act. Trouble is, I also have a hard time believing he's that stupid!
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 16th, 2010 at 3:18:55 PM
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Quote: benbakdoffHow about a monthly guest for a Q&A? People in the casino business,city or state officials,gambling attorneys etc.
There are a lot of interesting people out there-the list could be endless.
Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.
I'm too small to get the people I really want. Here is how I envision the conversation, let's say with someone local I really like and respect, Heidi Fleiss:
Me: Hello, Heidi. Would you like to do an interview for my web site "Wizard of Odds" or "Wizard of Vegas"?
Heidi: Who the *%&# are you or those sites?
Quote: DJTeddyBearRe: Chumley
But I have a hard time believing it's an act. Trouble is, I also have a hard time believing he's that stupid!
I'm sure it is exagerated. I've done a fair bit of television. They basicially ask you to be yourself...but to make it interesting for television. I think the implication is to overpersonify yourself. You see the overacting on reality shows all the time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 16th, 2010 at 3:33:21 PM
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Quote: WizardI've done a fair bit of television. They basicially ask you to be yourself...but to make it interesting for television. I think the implication is to overpersonify yourself. You see the overacting on reality shows all the time.
Very simple editing techniques can achieve all kinds of reactions. Once they have a persona that they want to project, they can cut, paste, pan and add sound effects to achieve the desired effect.
A friend of mine was interviewed for CNN on a research vessel. The reporter hated his complex technical answers. He spun around and pointed the camera at his face and shouted "What is the most important thing to do out here?". My friend said it was important not to fall into the ocean. He got his video clip.
Another time for CNN the reporter came all humble and said he hadn't time to do any research, and could we please fill him in on the most controversial aspects of the test. After ten minutes of filling him in, he turned the cameras on and fired all the same questions back in his most dominant investigative journalism voice. Seemed very funny to me.
August 16th, 2010 at 3:47:30 PM
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I think that there should be a whole section on the odds of trying to achieve a reasonable goal. How realistics is it with various games that you will quadruple your money before going broke.
Or the odds that you will double your money before going broke. Or given that you have doubled your money, how likely is it that if you keep playing that you will never see triple your money before going broke.
Or the age old Martingale question. What difference does it make what the ratio of Maximum to Minimum is. I think you can easily show that since you need a larger bankroll to cover your base bet, that the odds of doubling before bankruptcy are the same regardless of how big the ratio is. (Normally the ratio is bigger than 6, but in extreme circumstances can go up to 10).
People do not really appreciate the small differences in house advantage, unless they are seen throough the lense of a larger goal seek.
Given how much better craps is with free odds, I can't see why anyone would play baccarat for big money.
Or the odds that you will double your money before going broke. Or given that you have doubled your money, how likely is it that if you keep playing that you will never see triple your money before going broke.
Or the age old Martingale question. What difference does it make what the ratio of Maximum to Minimum is. I think you can easily show that since you need a larger bankroll to cover your base bet, that the odds of doubling before bankruptcy are the same regardless of how big the ratio is. (Normally the ratio is bigger than 6, but in extreme circumstances can go up to 10).
People do not really appreciate the small differences in house advantage, unless they are seen throough the lense of a larger goal seek.
Given how much better craps is with free odds, I can't see why anyone would play baccarat for big money.
August 16th, 2010 at 4:28:39 PM
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Yes. I have some ideas though not necessarily totally new ones.Quote: WizardWhat I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?
I'd like you to consider the work of a Yahoo Research Scientist set forth in blog.oddhead.com. He set forth a challenge in which there was a prize of twenty Yootles (a privately issued pseudo-currency). Unfortunately his Craps Strategy challenge was unrealistic in that it specified a 2x odds table and a five dollar minimum bet table. Sure, go to SouthPoint and all you will ever find is 2x odds. And 5.00 tables or even 3.00 craps tables are available if you trek a bit. However most of us are going to encounter ten dollar tables at 3x4x5x or 10x or 20x tables. The truly brave can hit Ramparts or Eastside Cannery and go to 100x.
If you go to the blog.oddhead.com site or directly to the craps challenge at http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/ you will see that the idiotic Fools Gold won the twenty Yootles but obviously did not know what he was talking about.
I'd like to see a definitive analysis of the different craps strategies and see it based on far, far more than a lousy 800 rolls simulation. And I'd like to see it at a more reasonable situation than 2x odds on a five dollar table.
Oddhead-Blog-post
but there is a 1965 paper by Tom Ferguson that solves a very similar problem for general MDPs:
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/papers/ruin.pdf
A Statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliot Kbeiico. Columbia, MD 21046
Best strategy: $606 PutBet. After three hits, take it down and leave the flat bets for the Casino Royale dealers.
Better depends upon goals and preferences.
At 5 dollar bets with two times odds, Hoyles Press and Oscar would be the two best systems, though Ponzer, in third place, would be preferable overall.
Best thing would be to play at a slower table where there are lots of grinders who will slow things down even more. That maximizes your time at the table more cheaply than switching to a Patrick Right system.
http://www.conjelco.com/downloads/elliott-paper.pdf
also available in:
Finding the Edge: Mathematical and Quantitative Analysis of Gambling (Institute of Gambling & Commercial Gaming) ver)
by Olaf Vancura William Eadington Judy Cornelius
After interviewing 50 dealers ... the Fremont Street Grind.
August 16th, 2010 at 4:41:51 PM
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>I think that there should be a whole section on the odds of trying to achieve a reasonable goal.
The only reasonable goal is to go do something else until you've made enough money to buy the casino.
Seriously, I too would like the "odds that you will double your money before going broke".
>Or the age old Martingale question.
Or perhaps a Modified Martingale. Most counter arguments to Martingale emphasize a worst-case scenario of a run of really, really bad luck. Yes, that happens but how often is it only Five "reds" in a row rather than Fifteen in a row?
>Given how much better craps is with free odds, I can't see why anyone would play baccarat for big money.
Ability to deal with a more hectic pace and more options than just Players/Banker? The Evil Empire may not be able to see why either, but they are glad that so many play slot machines rather than craps or baccarat.
The only reasonable goal is to go do something else until you've made enough money to buy the casino.
Seriously, I too would like the "odds that you will double your money before going broke".
>Or the age old Martingale question.
Or perhaps a Modified Martingale. Most counter arguments to Martingale emphasize a worst-case scenario of a run of really, really bad luck. Yes, that happens but how often is it only Five "reds" in a row rather than Fifteen in a row?
>Given how much better craps is with free odds, I can't see why anyone would play baccarat for big money.
Ability to deal with a more hectic pace and more options than just Players/Banker? The Evil Empire may not be able to see why either, but they are glad that so many play slot machines rather than craps or baccarat.
August 16th, 2010 at 4:50:17 PM
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How about fixing this issue :: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/help/1473-messageboard-features-foe-a-newbie/#post22587
More seriously, I do like the idea of some information about risk of ruin, variance and goal-orientated probabilities... it's been said that a casino allows players to trade expected value for variance.
More seriously, I do like the idea of some information about risk of ruin, variance and goal-orientated probabilities... it's been said that a casino allows players to trade expected value for variance.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 16th, 2010 at 4:53:28 PM
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Quote: WizardThanks for the baseball links. I may be able to do something with the first one. It would be much better if it listed the money lines and posted total for each game.
About the props, I consider one of my strongest areas NFL props. However, that is one of those things that is too good to write about. I'm also sworn to secrecy on some of my strategies.
I think there's a ton of interesting sports stuff you could do. Although you say you are sworn to secrecy on some things, I bet there are a lot of good possibilities out there.
I've said this before, but although dice/cards don't have memories, sports teams and oddsmakers do. I think this can be used to one's advantage.
Even the "Picking the exact score of the football game" research was quite fascinating. So I vote sports.
August 16th, 2010 at 5:22:06 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffI'd like you to consider the work of a Yahoo Research Scientist set forth in blog.oddhead.com. He set forth a challenge in which there was a prize of twenty Yootles (a privately issued pseudo-currency). Unfortunately his Craps Strategy challenge was unrealistic in that it specified a 2x odds table and a five dollar minimum bet table. Sure, go to SouthPoint and all you will ever find is 2x odds. And 5.00 tables or even 3.00 craps tables are available if you trek a bit. However most of us are going to encounter ten dollar tables at 3x4x5x or 10x or 20x tables. The truly brave can hit Ramparts or Eastside Cannery and go to 100x.
Any craps "strategy" is essentially an attempt to add negative numbers together to produce a positive total, an exercise that is logically and mathematically pointless. If all the people who have spent time and energy devising craps strategies had instead been harnessed to hamster wheels and expended their efforts THAT way, a major city could have been supplied with power and light.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 16th, 2010 at 6:38:25 PM
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Not at all. It is acknowledged that it is still a negative expectation game.Quote: mkl654321Any craps "strategy" is essentially an attempt to add negative numbers together to produce a positive total
August 16th, 2010 at 7:54:26 PM
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Again, thanks for the suggestion. I don't mean to sound ungrateful, but analyzing betting strategies, variance, risk of ruin, etc.. is not my thing. In my opinion, in the long run, those things are not important. What matters is playing a game with a low element of risk, and playing it properly. How much you bet and why is up to you. To lead my readers down the path of money management I think would confuse my message.
To add a corollary to my signature, it doesn't matter why you're making a bet, but whether or not it is a good bet.
To add a corollary to my signature, it doesn't matter why you're making a bet, but whether or not it is a good bet.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 16th, 2010 at 9:10:54 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffNot at all. It is acknowledged that it is still a negative expectation game.
Not by 99% of the people touting such a strategy, it isn't. Rather, it's the GENUWINE EZ-FOOLPROOF PATH TO CERTAIN RICHES, by Sy "the Wiz" Shyster (no relation to our website host).
In examining any such "strategy" for craps, given your assertion, the logical question would be, "strategy" to do what? What is the objective? Since it is, in fact, a losing game, the only logical objective could be to lose as little as possible. The only way to achieve that is to bet as little as possible. Te two components of that would be 1) bet the table minimum at all times and 2) make the bet that takes the longest to reach a decision. Therefore, any "strategy" that says anything other than "bet the minimum on either the pass or the don't pass line" isn't a strategy at all.*
*whether you take odds or not is immaterial
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 17th, 2010 at 1:10:19 AM
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Well, the only good bet is one that happens to win. Red and Black are each equally "good" ... and so too is a straight-up bet on 7. Each is equally good but one sure depletes my bankroll before I can even get a "free" drink.Quote: Wizardit doesn't matter why you're making a bet, but whether or not it is a good bet.
August 17th, 2010 at 5:01:37 AM
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I was reading the Pascal Wager thread when an idea jumped into my head:
The Math of the Pearly Gates Admittance Exam
OK. I'll go back to the Pascal thread now...
The Math of the Pearly Gates Admittance Exam
OK. I'll go back to the Pascal thread now...
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 17th, 2010 at 9:23:52 AM
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Quote: mkl654321Not by 99% of the people touting such a strategy, it isn't. Rather, it's the GENUWINE EZ-FOOLPROOF PATH TO CERTAIN RICHES, by Sy "the Wiz" Shyster (no relation to our website host).
In examining any such "strategy" for craps, given your assertion, the logical question would be, "strategy" to do what? What is the objective? Since it is, in fact, a losing game, the only logical objective could be to lose as little as possible. The only way to achieve that is to bet as little as possible. Te two components of that would be 1) bet the table minimum at all times and 2) make the bet that takes the longest to reach a decision. Therefore, any "strategy" that says anything other than "bet the minimum on either the pass or the don't pass line" isn't a strategy at all.*
*whether you take odds or not is immaterial
Your argument breaks down in the phrase "the only logical objective could be to lose as little as possible". The objective could be to have the greatest chance of doubling up or going home. The objective could be to make a 30% gain. The objective could be to have fun. Or it could be to increase your variance as you like the thrill of highs and lows.
None of these are invalid onjectives and they may all have different strategies.
And it is NOT immaterial on taking the odds if your objective is to lose as little as possible. Taking odds is 0EV but adds to the variance. If you want to protect your bank as hard as possible, don't take odds. The house % changes when you take odds, but the actual amount doesn't change. (However I would argue if you were betting table minimum and want to increase your action, the first increase should be taking odds... $5+$10 behind is probably better than $5 on the pass and hitting $5 come bets for preserving your bank roll longer).
And this is why I am interested in the variance and patterns over time rather than just knowing the EV of perfect play. It is of course the Wizard's site and time and I should go do the work myself ;)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 17th, 2010 at 10:58:30 AM
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How about a definitive study on dice setting? There have been various "small sample" studies and "challenges", but by your own admission, "One of the most frequently asked questions I get, and certainly the most frequent about craps, is whether dice setting is for real." (from the WoO site referenced previously).
How about arranging a large sample, "shootout" for proponents of various methods? Their roll-by-roll results can be tracked and you can provide analysis and commentary on the results. To make it even more interesting, they could even bring their own stakes and play for real cash (putting up real dough would have the advantage of performances being under actual playing conditions, but it may (will) severely limit the sample size.)
How about arranging a large sample, "shootout" for proponents of various methods? Their roll-by-roll results can be tracked and you can provide analysis and commentary on the results. To make it even more interesting, they could even bring their own stakes and play for real cash (putting up real dough would have the advantage of performances being under actual playing conditions, but it may (will) severely limit the sample size.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 17th, 2010 at 11:04:23 AM
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Quote: thecesspitYour argument breaks down in the phrase "the only logical objective could be to lose as little as possible". The objective could be to have the greatest chance of doubling up or going home. The objective could be to make a 30% gain. The objective could be to have fun. Or it could be to increase your variance as you like the thrill of highs and lows.
None of these are invalid onjectives and they may all have different strategies.
And it is NOT immaterial on taking the odds if your objective is to lose as little as possible. Taking odds is 0EV but adds to the variance. If you want to protect your bank as hard as possible, don't take odds. The house % changes when you take odds, but the actual amount doesn't change. (However I would argue if you were betting table minimum and want to increase your action, the first increase should be taking odds... $5+$10 behind is probably better than $5 on the pass and hitting $5 come bets for preserving your bank roll longer).
And this is why I am interested in the variance and patterns over time rather than just knowing the EV of perfect play. It is of course the Wizard's site and time and I should go do the work myself ;)
Variance has no effect on EV. And I did say that the way to accomplish the objective of losing as little as possible was to make minimum bets on the Pass or Don't Pass. Making massive, modest, or no odds bets will not affect the fulfillment of that objective. Doing that will indeed increase your variance, but the sum of all those wagers will still equal zero--so the only consideration is how "losing" your losing bets are.
And BTW--there ARE no "patterns over time" in independent-trial games. It's an artifact of our primate brains to so desperately search for patterns where none exist.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 17th, 2010 at 11:08:29 AM
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Quote: thecesspitYour argument breaks down in the phrase "the only logical objective could be to lose as little as possible". The objective could be to have the greatest chance of doubling up or going home. The objective could be to make a 30% gain. The objective could be to have fun. Or it could be to increase your variance as you like the thrill of highs and lows.
Let me elaborate. "Logical objective" linked to a STRATEGY. Any strategy related to doubling up, or winning 30%, or winning any amount, would be no viable strategy at all. Therefore, only a strategy related to minimizing losses would make sense. This, in turn, presumes that one is in some way compelled to play the game in the first place, since the OPTIMAL strategy is to simply not play. So the implied statement is, "Okay, if you MUST play, then..."
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
August 18th, 2010 at 9:33:02 AM
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Wiz:
I think it would be interesting to have "variance" explained in
layman terms. I'm sure that would not be very difficult for
you. If you already have, can you point me to where ?
For example, my wife believes she can play longer on a 100 play
penny DW VP game with a 98.5 % paytable than I can play on a 99.7 %
(NSUD) paytable for the same buy-in, say $ 50. How many hands
do I have to play to essentially have the same variance ?
She usually plays $ 5 per hand (so 5 pennies per hand x 100 hands)
and I am playing 5 coins on a quarter machine. At our favorite
casino, I think the comp values are much better for having more
play through, but I can't quantify that.
I hope you keep your websites going, I enjoy them very much. These
forums are also a lot of fun.
I think it would be interesting to have "variance" explained in
layman terms. I'm sure that would not be very difficult for
you. If you already have, can you point me to where ?
For example, my wife believes she can play longer on a 100 play
penny DW VP game with a 98.5 % paytable than I can play on a 99.7 %
(NSUD) paytable for the same buy-in, say $ 50. How many hands
do I have to play to essentially have the same variance ?
She usually plays $ 5 per hand (so 5 pennies per hand x 100 hands)
and I am playing 5 coins on a quarter machine. At our favorite
casino, I think the comp values are much better for having more
play through, but I can't quantify that.
I hope you keep your websites going, I enjoy them very much. These
forums are also a lot of fun.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
August 18th, 2010 at 9:52:02 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaHow about a definitive study on dice setting?
I'd love to put that topic to rest as well. However, it would take at least 10,000 rolls to get close to proving or disproving anything. It would simply take too much time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 18th, 2010 at 12:13:20 PM
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Quote: WizardI'd love to put that topic to rest as well. However, it would take at least 10,000 rolls to get close to proving or disproving anything. It would simply take too much time.
Well, you didn't ask for "easy"..hehe. In any case, I would still encourage you to consider it. The findings have the potential to revolutionize the way Craps tables are constructed... everywhere. Or they could put a real dent in dice control book sales.
Assuming six throws per minute during the sample periods, and counting in rest breaks and meals, I think the data collection would take about 40 hrs. tops, perhaps less if multiple samples could be collected simultaneously.
I actually think the hardest part would be getting dice control proponents to submit to tracking. They have more to lose if they cannot perform as promised.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
August 18th, 2010 at 1:29:28 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI actually think the hardest part would be getting dice control proponents to submit to tracking. They have more to lose if they cannot perform as promised.
That will be hard. Harder still will be to get other dice control proponents to accept any results that don't favor dice control. They can always claim the volunteers weren't that good to begin with.
It's the Niven Principle (one of many) as applied to gambling: no ultimate sotry to end all stories ever ends anything. THat is, you take a science fiction premise and examine its ultimate logical conclusion, which ought to kill that premise. This often results in great stories, but good premises aren't easy to kill.
Dice control is a great premise: you can beat the casino at craps, consistently, and make a very good living at it; best of all the casinos don't go after dice setters.
I'd also like to see a serious study on dice control, especially one done against adequate controls. By that I mean against 1) regular shooters, 2) shooters who set dice but don't throw in a controlled fashion and 3) randomly generated "throws."
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 18th, 2010 at 2:55:13 PM
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Quote: NareedDice control is a great premise: you can beat the casino at craps, consistently, and make a very good living at it; best of all the casinos don't go after dice setters.
There is no folly that is too foolish to be believed by somebody who truly wants to believe it.
Dice controllers beat the casino at craps ONLY by separating suckers from their money at seminars before those suckers can take their wallets to the craps table.
If it really worked no one, but no one, would be selling seminars when they could make far more at the craps tables.
August 18th, 2010 at 3:41:09 PM
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Not only will she not play longer than you, she will bust out long before you do assuming the same bankroll and no cashback. The fact that she is on a 100-play does not make that much of a difference; the fact that she is betting $5.00 a hand on an inferior paytable is. I can't show you the math (I'm too stupid), but the difference in variance between a $1 single-line (5 credits) and an 100-play penny machine is not as great as people think it is. The fact of the matter is that she is betting $5 on every spin, which is a lot more than $1.25. Also, because she is playing with on a paytable that is 1.2% poorer than yours, her bankroll will need to be bigger by an order of magnitude to have the same risk of ruin. Sorry for the limited analysis, but the variance is not even close. In the words of caretaker Grady from The Shining, your wife needs to be "corrected, Sir."Quote: JohnnyQWiz:
I think it would be interesting to have "variance" explained in
layman terms. I'm sure that would not be very difficult for
you. If you already have, can you point me to where ?
For example, my wife believes she can play longer on a 100 play
penny DW VP game with a 98.5 % paytable than I can play on a 99.7 %
(NSUD) paytable for the same buy-in, say $ 50. How many hands
do I have to play to essentially have the same variance ?
She usually plays $ 5 per hand (so 5 pennies per hand x 100 hands)
and I am playing 5 coins on a quarter machine. At our favorite
casino, I think the comp values are much better for having more
play through, but I can't quantify that.
I hope you keep your websites going, I enjoy them very much. These
forums are also a lot of fun.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
August 18th, 2010 at 3:41:43 PM
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Quote: mkl654321Variance has no effect on EV. And I did say that the way to accomplish the objective of losing as little as possible was to make minimum bets on the Pass or Don't Pass. Making massive, modest, or no odds bets will not affect the fulfillment of that objective. Doing that will indeed increase your variance, but the sum of all those wagers will still equal zero--so the only consideration is how "losing" your losing bets are.
I am well aware that variance and EV are different. This is exactly my point. The EV just tells you the centre point of where you can be after x-trials. The variance will tell you the probability of how far from that centre point you are.
IF you goal is to take $200 and play $5 Craps for AT least 2 hours, placing x10 odds on on the Pass Line bets is not a good strategy to achieve this.
If your aim is to make $400 or go bust, placing those big odds is (probably) the best way of doing so.
If your bankroll was $2000, then I'd agree the odds bets are a immaterial. Simply put, if the variance can force into busto land, then it's important.
Quote:
And BTW--there ARE no "patterns over time" in independent-trial games. It's an artifact of our primate brains to so desperately search for patterns where none exist.
Yes there are patterns. There is the bell curve of probabilities. I am not talking about the pattern of results of each independent trial. I am talking about what is the pattern of possible results. Going away from an area the Wizard is comfortable with, I've produced simple curves of results for Martingale, progression and flat betting roulette. They look different. DUCY?
Quote:
Let me elaborate. "Logical objective" linked to a STRATEGY. Any strategy related to doubling up, or winning 30%, or winning any amount, would be no viable strategy at all. Therefore, only a strategy related to minimizing losses would make sense. This, in turn, presumes that one is in some way compelled to play the game in the first place, since the OPTIMAL strategy is to simply not play. So the implied statement is, "Okay, if you MUST play, then..."
I don't understand your objection to an objective being to attempt to double your money? Why is this not a logical objective, and why can it not have a strategy that optimises your chances to his that objective?
Not playing is the optimal way to guarantee you preserve your bankroll with 0 risk. People may be prepared to risk some of their bank roll, with a negative expectation, but with some chance to increase it.
Otherwise, 'optimal' strategy on roulette would be to cover both red, black and green. And on Craps to play pass/don't pass. But you've given up all the variance... and as I've stated elsewhere, trading variance for EV is one of the things a casino offers.
We are possibly using the word strategy in different ways here.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
