Which game to maintain Tier level
there's no point multiplier or bonus tier points at this casino.
to get to x points, I need $50k coin-in at VP or $100k coin-in at electronic Craps (odds count for points).
best vp is 98.9% deuces wild (dw44) at $2 or $5 denomination.
e-Craps is 3/4/5x odds which means 99.6% if I'm only doing pass/come bets with max odds.
I want to complete this in the least amount of time to maximize ADT and maximize bounceback freeplay offers.
I can probably do VP in a day.
I don't have a time estimate for e-Craps.
Theoretical loss:
vp -> $50k x (1 - 98.9%) = $550
e-Craps -> $100k x (1 - 99.6%) = $400
on paper, e-Craps seems like the better choice.
but I'm worried about variance with e-Craps, especially since I press my bets.
What would you do?
Quote: RSI wouldn't press my bets.
That was my thought. Why increase variance. If you have a goal then just decide what you want the base bet to be and keep it there. May be a little boring but is probably ly the best way to go.
If it were me I would pick the game I would prefer to play and start palying. If I got to a point where I was on the plus side of variance then I would walk away from that game and go to the other.
Quote: GWAEThat was my thought. Why increase variance. If you have a goal then just decide what you want the base bet to be and keep it there. May be a little boring but is probably ly the best way to go.
If it were me I would pick the game I would prefer to play and start palying. If I got to a point where I was on the plus side of variance then I would walk away from that game and go to the other.
not pressing in Craps is no fun to me.
which has more variance? flat betting pass/max odds (3/4/5x) in craps or 98.9% deuces wild (dw44)?
If you're betting $1 a roll in craps, VP will have more variance.
If I were you, I would spread out my play over a longer time frame, accepting that lower variance is better than future comps. I mean, this is supposed to be fun, right? Why not let it last a few weekends.
$25 on the Don't Pass and Don't Come with full odds should get you to $100k in one day. I did $40k in about six hours at that level with only 2x odds
Quote: NeutrinoThis is harrah's? I almost got the near exact situation at my local harrah's. Can I ask what's so attractive about the tier you're after?
not harrahs.
I said in my OP no bonus points
Quote: TomGCraps has much lower variance the VP. Don't Pass has a lower house edge than Pass Line because 12 still give you credit.
$25 on the Don't Pass and Don't Come with full odds should get you to $100k in one day. I did $40k in about six hours at that level with only 2x odds
ahh.. thx!
forgot about don't pass.
what bankroll did you start with?
Quote: 100xOddsahh.. thx!
forgot about don't pass.
what bankroll did you start with?
Was playing for someone else, so bankroll wasn't even a question. The only issue was how long it would take for the casino to realize what we were doing. The max bet, $25 + $50, meant up to $475 on the table at once ($75 on all six numbers, plus $25 on either PL or DP). Even with four of us playing simultaneously, we were still well under Kelly. With an estimated edge of 1.17% and a $475 bet, bankroll requirements would be $40,000. But you will usually seven out before putting that much on the table, so it should be quite a bit lower than that.
If you calculate your exact edge (or at least a close approximation), we can figure out how much to bet based on any bankroll size.
Quote: TomGWas playing for someone else, so bankroll wasn't even a question. The only issue was how long it would take for the casino to realize what we were doing. The max bet, $25 + $50, meant up to $475 on the table at once ($75 on all six numbers, plus $25 on either PL or DP). Even with four of us playing simultaneously, we were still well under Kelly. With an estimated edge of 1.17% and a $475 bet, bankroll requirements would be $40,000. But you will usually seven out before putting that much on the table, so it should be quite a bit lower than that.
If you calculate your exact edge (or at least a close approximation), we can figure out how much to bet based on any bankroll size.
how did you get a +17% edge?
and why wouldn't the casinos like you and your 3 friends all betting max?
That came from the point multiplier, lose around 34-cents on each spin on the Don't Pass (or 35-cents on the PL), while earning 17.5 cents in free play and cash back on it. Odds were break even, while earning 35-cents in free play and cash back each time.
Quite obvious why the casino didn't like it: they were losing money. Started shortly after midnight, took a breakfast break, came back and the game was shut down, later in the day, the game wouldn't accept any players cards. Now most all of them are far too stingy with points to be beatable
There is a lot of video poker with very similar EV. The main difference is the variance on VP is anywhere from 20 to 40. Most table games are similar to a coin flips without any decisions to mess up on. Even among professional gamblers, very few know anything close to perfect VP strategy
Quote: TomGIt was 1.17%, or +0.0117.
That came from the point multiplier, lose around 34-cents on each spin on the Don't Pass (or 35-cents on the PL), while earning 17.5 cents in free play and cash back on it. Odds were break even, while earning 35-cents in free play and cash back each time.
Quite obvious why the casino didn't like it: they were losing money. Started shortly after midnight, took a breakfast break, came back and the game was shut down, later in the day, the game wouldn't accept any players cards. Now most all of them are far too stingy with points to be beatable
There is a lot of video poker with very similar EV. The main difference is the variance on VP is anywhere from 20 to 40. Most table games are similar to a coin flips without any decisions to mess up on. Even among professional gamblers, very few know anything close to perfect VP strategy
ahh..ok
why continuous don't come? you're guaranteed to lose $25 when that 7 finally shows
