Can someone help me with RoR?
25k coin in on a 85% payback slot machine
And
50k coin in on a 97% payback video poker.
Not sure if it matters but the video poker would be done with $2.50 bet and the slot machine would be a $3 bet.
me tooQuote: GWAEI was trying to use the info on Woo but I couldn't made sense from it.
so i made my own (i now own all of them)
so for 1 in 100Quote: GWAEWhat is the amount needed to have a RoR of 1% and 10% on the following situations.
and
1 in 10
on average of course
i think it should matterQuote: GWAE25k coin in on a 85% payback slot machine
And
50k coin in on a 97% payback video poker.
Not sure if it matters but the video poker would be done with $2.50 bet
so does having the time for this
i select a $100 VP machine
less hands to play but maybe just the same time required (lots of W2Gs)
need more infoQuote: GWAEand the slot machine would be a $3 bet.
like variance and stuffs
actually, what game VP you wants to play?
9/6 JOB sounds good
the slot values are 25,000/3 for coin in?
who has the info on slot machines these days that wants to share with the world?
You know how long it's going to take to get 50k coin in playing .50 single line VP. You may not get it done within 24hrs.Quote: GWAEI was trying to use the info on Woo but I couldn't made sense from it. What is the amount needed to have a RoR of 1% and 10% on the following situations.
25k coin in on a 85% payback slot machine
And
50k coin in on a 97% payback video poker.
Not sure if it matters but the video poker would be done with $2.50 bet and the slot machine would be a $3 bet.
Sure its possible if you want to play non stop and can maintain 800+ hands an hr.
Quote: AxelWolfYou know how long it's going to take to get 50k coin in playing .50 single line VP. You may not get it done within 24hrs.
Sure its possible if you want to play non stop and can maintain 800+ hands an hr.
25 hours. 50,000/2.5/800
Quote: AxelWolfYou know how long it's going to take to get 50k coin in playing .50 single line VP. You may not get it done within 24hrs.
Sure its possible if you want to play non stop and can maintain 800+ hands an hr.
yeah I know it is probably not possible in 1 day. Just kinda curious what the RoR on that would be, less variance on $0.50 opposed to $1 or $5.
To speed it up and reduce variance, maybe something like 100 play JOB at $0.05 or $0.10?
It may end up tripping you 2 times, daily average may suffer. Perhaps if you get in at 6am and play until 6am you'll be ok. Well not ok, watching a VP screen for 24hr is hell, even if you have a huge advantage and money is flowing in. I guess someone a gambling addiction may enjoy it.Quote: Ibeatyouraces25 hours. 50,000/2.5/800
25K in slots if you bounce around and find some fun slots might be less painful. Usually the penny multi line slots are consistent. down down down just plan on losing 3k to 6k.
Wife won't be to happy.
maybeQuote: GWAETo speed it up and reduce variance, maybe something like 100 play JOB at $0.05 or $0.10?
i still say $100 denom 9/6 JOB
here is some data i haves
(calculated, of course, with enough bankroll to make every bet - only way to play i say)
$0.25 denom
40,000 hands
62.72% chance for a session loss
$0.50
20,000 hands
62.36%
$1
10,000 hands
69.91%
$2
5,000 hands
71.96%
$5
2,000 hands
68.41%
$10
1,000 hands
64.87%
$25
400 hands
61.19%
$100 denom
100 hands
58.85% <<<<<<<<<<< winner and still champion
Sally says
OVER tonight
maybe too (2 or 1+1) on the other LA team
How likely is it to lose lets say 12% running 50k.
Quote: GWAEI was trying to use the info on Woo but I couldn't made sense from it. What is the amount needed to have a RoR of 1% and 10% on the following situations.
25k coin in on a 85% payback slot machine
And
50k coin in on a 97% payback video poker.
Not sure if it matters but the video poker would be done with $2.50 bet and the slot machine would be a $3 bet.
Unfortunately some of it depends on the machine design. Higher variance machines will require more money to lower the RoR. As for the 97% VP, can't you just state the actual game? 8/5 JoB? 8/5 DDB? etc.
The math is also done in this thread too: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gaming-business/caesars/20205-diamond-in-a-day-how-much-to-bring/
Quote: tringlomaneUnfortunately some of it depends on the machine design. Higher variance machines will require more money to lower the RoR. As for the 97% VP, can't you just state the actual game? 8/5 JoB? 8/5 DDB? etc.
Axel, that is exactly what I was trying to get at.
Tring, yes I could have done that. Didn't think it mattered. I would most likely bounce between a few games but they are all in the 97% crappy range. My games would be 8/5 DDB, 8/5 JOB, and bonus aces and faces 6/5.
Slots would be a varying mixture. Some $0.05 video, $0.01 video, $1 3 reel, $1 WOF, and some other misc.
of course he wants to know this but needs to suplpy way more infoQuote: AxelWolfI think he wants to know what kind of bankroll he needs to bring
maybe he should visit this site and run sims himself (great idea!)
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
seems to be a very good program...
(and lots of new games have been added i see 2)
once one jumps thru all the hoops to make it work (java)
for 1% Ror with 9/6JOB at $100 denom requires abouts a $20,000 start
.. 10% Ror with 9/6JOB at $100 denom requires abouts a $14,000 start
I may just try this out after baseball tonights
VP Queen now entering CT
Sally
Quote: GWAEAxel, that is exactly what I was trying to get at.
Tring, yes I could have done that. Didn't think it mattered. I would most likely bounce between a few games but they are all in the 97% crappy range. My games would be 8/5 DDB, 8/5 JOB, and bonus aces and faces 6/5.
Slots would be a varying mixture. Some $0.05 video, $0.01 video, $1 3 reel, $1 WOF, and some other misc.
Slots are going to up your RoR a lot because your average loss to start with is $3750 if you assume 15% edge...and it really depends on the value of the bets. The more bets you can get in, the better off you are.
Trying to run some rough sims on 8/5 JoB single line right now...but my program is ad hoc slash terribly slow.
What's the best game on multi-line VP? Lowest denomination? If you had 6/5 Bonus for penny 100-play, that is probably your best bet for success of $50k coin-in.
Quote: AxelWolfYou know how long it's going to take to get 50k coin in playing .50 single line VP. You may not get it done within 24hrs.
Sure its possible if you want to play non stop and can maintain 800+ hands an hr.
I have a play this weekend that is going to require about 10 hours of video poker on Saturday. I haven't played that much in one day for probably about 10 years. Although I am not looking forward to the grind, at least it is on a game I enjoy.
Quote: tringlomane1% RoR on 8/5 JoB for 20k hands at $2.50/hand is approximately $3800. Median Result is about -$1700.
Thank you tring. I wish I knew how to do that. I was thinking 3500 so I was close.
Just curious, if you play the same 8/5 on 50 play pennies, does it change your ror or just reduce the variance?
Quote: GWAEThank you tring. I wish I knew how to do that. I was thinking 3500 so I was close.
Just curious, if you play the same 8/5 on 50 play pennies, does it change your ror or just reduce the variance?
Both. It reduces your variance in dollars and reduces your RoR. 50 play pennies is a much better choice than 1 play at 50 cents if the same paytable exists and if your main goal is to succeed. The RoR for 8/5 JoB 50-play pennies I can't calculate directly, but with $3800 I would assume it's nearly impossible to go broke on 50-play pennies for $50k coin-in. You're seeing 1 million draws! If it needs to be done in a day, you'll need it to be on turbo of course.
Unfortunately the drawback is, you'll rarely be a winner (barring something like a dealt royal). On the one play, the probability of being ahead was a little lower than 25%.
"at least it is on a game I enjoy" Well now you're just rubbing it in.Quote: DRichI have a play this weekend that is going to require about 10 hours of video poker on Saturday. I haven't played that much in one day for probably about 10 years. Although I am not looking forward to the grind, at least it is on a game I enjoy.
What game do you enjoy?
What % are we talking about on this play?
I really want a juicy play on Winning streak VP http://www.wms.com/Games/MyPoker/Pages/WinningStreakPoker.aspx.
"at least it is on a game I enjoy" Well now you're just rubbing it in.Quote: DRichI have a play this weekend that is going to require about 10 hours of video poker on Saturday. I haven't played that much in one day for probably about 10 years. Although I am not looking forward to the grind, at least it is on a game I enjoy.
What game do you enjoy?
What % are we talking about on this play?
I really want a juicy play on Winning streak VP http://www.wms.com/Games/MyPoker/Pages/WinningStreakPoker.aspx.
Perhaps you should've asked him before you posted up numbers.Quote: mustangsallyof course he wants to know this but needs to suplpy way more info
maybe he should visit this site and run sims himself (great idea!)
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
seems to be a very good program...
(and lots of new games have been added i see 2)
once one jumps thru all the hoops to make it work (java)
for 1% Ror with 9/6JOB at $100 denom requires abouts a $20,000 start
.. 10% Ror with 9/6JOB at $100 denom requires abouts a $14,000 start
I may just try this out after baseball tonights
VP Queen now entering CT
Sally
He said 97% I was guessing some variant of JOB. Obviously he knows there's a differences between something like double bonus and bonus.
Maybe he just wanted a good estimate and isn't sure exactly how he wants to approach it.
I suggest if all the games are about the same percentage loss, he should go with Bonus poker. It's going to provide a little more entertainment than JOB, but less variance than something like Double Double bonus.
To be safe(within reason )I would bring 10k for both plays. Either case, I would play the VP first.
Quote: mustangsallymaybe
i still say $100 denom 9/6 JOB
here is some data i haves
(calculated, of course, with enough bankroll to make every bet - only way to play i say)
$0.25 denom
40,000 hands
62.72% chance for a session loss
$0.50
20,000 hands
62.36%
$1
10,000 hands
69.91%
$2
5,000 hands
71.96%
$5
2,000 hands
68.41%
$10
1,000 hands
64.87%
$25
400 hands
61.19%
$100 denom
100 hands
58.85% <<<<<<<<<<< winner and still champion
Sally says
OVER tonight
maybe too (2 or 1+1) on the other LA team
Wow, that is SO useful sally! Another perfect example of sally posting completely misleading information. Not sure if you know this or not (since it looks like you don't)....but the goal of coin-in plays is not to win. The goal is to put through the required amount of action while keeping the losses to a minimum. He's talking about playing a $0.50 denom machine....and you're encouraging him to play a $100 machine? That's beyond ridiculous.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/answers/#a3
MustangSally recommends playing $100 denom machine for 100 hands. So on Bonus Poker, the standard deviation is (100^0.5) * 4.57 * $500 = $22,850 <<<<< NOT A WINNER.
GWAE, in my opinion, you're best off to figure this out on your own, and ask questions along the way, if you're doing the math correctly or not. Why does it matter what your trip/session BR should be? Rather, you should be trying to figure out if doing this play makes sense for you given your total BR and risk tolerance. In the process, you figure out how much you should need. But I say just bring more than you need, I always (almost always) do. You never know what you're going to see at the casino, and it'll really suck if you don't have the money on you to play it.
I would advise not to play a slot machine if you're going after the coin in / points.
It sounds as if he's doing both (minds made up) Now he just needs to know what to expect. IE what's the least money I need to bring within reason. 5k is to little and 25k is to much.Quote: RSWow, that is SO useful sally! Another perfect example of sally posting completely misleading information. Not sure if you know this or not (since it looks like you don't)....but the goal of coin-in plays is not to win. The goal is to put through the required amount of action while keeping the losses to a minimum. He's talking about playing a $0.50 denom machine....and you're encouraging him to play a $100 machine? That's beyond ridiculous.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/answers/#a3
MustangSally recommends playing $100 denom machine for 100 hands. So on Bonus Poker, the standard deviation is (100^0.5) * 4.57 * $500 = $22,850 <<<<< NOT A WINNER.
GWAE, in my opinion, you're best off to figure this out on your own, and ask questions along the way, if you're doing the math correctly or not. Why does it matter what your trip/session BR should be? Rather, you should be trying to figure out if doing this play makes sense for you given your total BR and risk tolerance. In the process, you figure out how much you should need. But I say just bring more than you need, I always (almost always) do. You never know what you're going to see at the casino, and it'll really suck if you don't have the money on you to play it.
I would advise not to play a slot machine if you're going after the coin in / points.
He's probably wondering realistically what's the worst he could do. IE is it even possible to lose 20% on VP if I run 50k trough on .50 single line 7/5 jacks?
Can I lose 50% playing Lobstermania $ .5 max bet running 25k in?
I think he probably has a good sense but not enough experience running big sessions especially on crappie games.
I don't think he though about how long it would take running 50k on .50 denominations.
i post my info for all to see, not just a fewQuote: AxelWolfPerhaps you should've asked him before you posted up numbers.
thank you
it is so nice to see you are healthy these days
keep it up!
Sally
thank you!Quote: RSWow, that is SO useful sally!
just another opinion as are all of your posts tooQuote: RSAnother perfect example of sally posting completely misleading information.
the internet is full of opinions
?Quote: RSNot sure if you know this or not (since it looks like you don't)....but the goal of coin-in plays is not to win.
lets seeQuote: RSThe goal is to put through the required amount of action while keeping the losses to a minimum.
loss for $100 denom at 100 hands wit $20k bank = $171
loss for 50cents denom at 20,000 hands wit $3800 bank = $227
just another opinion
hehehe
this is from a poster that says many times in other posts that the longer one flips a coin the closer the actual number of Heads and Tails will beQuote: RSGWAE, in my opinion, you're best off to figure this out on your own, and ask questions along the way,
hehe (actual losses and throws out standard deviation values for 100 hands as that even matters, as an opinion, of course)
we all have our false believes that we think are true beliefs
in my opinion, wait, that is not an opinion here
i say, again, always have enough money to play any number of hands at vp or slots
and never think about RoR, easy stuffs
just another opinion
Oh
so nice to see you are doing so well these days, health-wise that is
Sally
Quote: GWAEThank you tring. I wish I knew how to do that. I was thinking 3500 so I was close.
Just curious, if you play the same 8/5 on 50 play pennies, does it change your ror or just reduce the variance?
I pointed you to the math... and said 7.5k for <1% playing $5/pull JoB. Gotta figure at $2.50/pull you'd be somewhere around half, and oh my, is that $3750? =p
Quote: GWAEI was trying to use the info on Woo but I couldn't made sense from it. What is the amount needed to have a RoR of 1% and 10% on the following situations.
50k coin in on a 97% payback video poker.
Not sure if it matters but the video poker would be done with $2.50 bet
In other words, 20,000 hands without losing the bankroll first.
Assuming you are playing 8/5 Jacks or Better using "perfect strategy" (and using the Wizard's stated hand probabilities), I get through simulation:
1235 bets ($3087.5) for risk of ruin 10%
1510 bets ($3775) for risk of ruin 1%
I didn't calculate the slot machine version as I don't know nearly enough about actual slot machine probabilities to be able to simulate it with any degree of certainty.
very nice workQuote: ThatDonGuyAssuming you are playing 8/5 Jacks or Better<snip>
OP wants to play LOTS of vp games and slot machines with one bankroll
i still say figure out the max # of rounds to play total
and have that money in the casino
RoR = 0%
of course, i want all other players, not me, to lose their bankrolls when they do play 100% of the time
(and that has yet to happen, darn those socks)
i get such a thrill from hearing and seeing it
so i wish the OP lots of luck
now off to Brunch
Angels will be tired tonight
but still have to go with the over, I love lots of runs scored
Sally
Note that the bankroll column is in terms of maximum (in this case, $2.50) bets
| Bankroll | Risk of Ruin % |
|---|---|
| 1100 | 20.317804 |
| 1110 | 19.386875 |
| 1120 | 18.477588 |
| 1130 | 17.590725 |
| 1140 | 16.726993 |
| 1150 | 15.887023 |
| 1160 | 15.071363 |
| 1170 | 14.280482 |
| 1180 | 13.514768 |
| 1190 | 12.774528 |
| 1200 | 12.059988 |
| 1210 | 11.371296 |
| 1220 | 10.708521 |
| 1230 | 10.071658 |
| 1232 | 9.947389 |
| 1240 | 9.460626 |
| 1250 | 8.875277 |
| 1260 | 8.315391 |
| 1270 | 7.780689 |
| 1280 | 7.270827 |
| 1290 | 6.785405 |
| 1300 | 6.323974 |
| 1310 | 5.886032 |
| 1320 | 5.471036 |
| 1330 | 5.078402 |
| 1340 | 4.707511 |
| 1350 | 4.357713 |
| 1360 | 4.028332 |
| 1370 | 3.718670 |
| 1380 | 3.428011 |
| 1390 | 3.155626 |
| 1400 | 2.900775 |
| 1410 | 2.662713 |
| 1420 | 2.440693 |
| 1430 | 2.233968 |
| 1440 | 2.041798 |
| 1450 | 1.863447 |
| 1460 | 1.698192 |
| 1470 | 1.545322 |
| 1480 | 1.404139 |
| 1490 | 1.273965 |
| 1500 | 1.154138 |
| 1510 | 1.044019 |
| 1515 | 0.992405 |
| 1520 | 0.942987 |
| 1530 | 0.850448 |
| 1540 | 0.765827 |
| 1550 | 0.688576 |
| 1560 | 0.618171 |
| 1570 | 0.554113 |
| 1580 | 0.495927 |
| 1590 | 0.443165 |
| 1600 | 0.395400 |
| 1610 | 0.352233 |
| 1620 | 0.313287 |
| 1630 | 0.278209 |
| 1640 | 0.246668 |
| 1650 | 0.218357 |
| 1660 | 0.192988 |
| 1670 | 0.170293 |
| 1680 | 0.150027 |
| 1690 | 0.131960 |
| 1700 | 0.115882 |
| 1710 | 0.101597 |
| 1720 | 0.0889289 |
| 1730 | 0.0777132 |
| 1740 | 0.0678010 |
| 1750 | 0.0590559 |
| 1760 | 0.0513540 |
| 1770 | 0.0445827 |
| 1780 | 0.0386401 |
| 1790 | 0.0334338 |
| 1800 | 0.0288807 |
Quote: AxelWolf
What game do you enjoy?
What % are we talking about on this play?
Would you believe me if I said a 50 play 25c FPDW with 1/2% free play and drawings? I didn't think so. :)
Quote: DRichWould you believe me if I said a 50 play 25c FPDW with 1/2% free play and drawings? I didn't think so. :)
I got a buddy at NSA who will have to start tapping your phones.... for national security of course.
Quote: mustangsallythank you!
just another opinion as are all of your posts too
the internet is full of opinions
?
lets see
loss for $100 denom at 100 hands wit $20k bank = $171
loss for 50cents denom at 20,000 hands wit $3800 bank = $227
just another opinion
hehehe
this is from a poster that says many times in other posts that the longer one flips a coin the closer the actual number of Heads and Tails will be
hehe (actual losses and throws out standard deviation values for 100 hands as that even matters, as an opinion, of course)
we all have our false believes that we think are true beliefs
in my opinion, wait, that is not an opinion here
i say, again, always have enough money to play any number of hands at vp or slots
and never think about RoR, easy stuffs
just another opinion
Oh
so nice to see you are doing so well these days, health-wise that is
Sally
Wow, a whole extra $50! How many times did you have to run those sims before you got the results you wanted? Mind you, $227 is almost exactly on par with EV. The $171 is just variance. You only ran 10 million hands on the $100 denom on your simulator....and 200x that # of hands on the "bad" one.
We all can see (those who can see) you are providing bad math.
Edited
Quote: djatcI got a buddy at NSA who will have to start tapping your phones.... for national security of course.
Just don't tell my wife about my girlfriends.
Obviously if I found a 50 play FPDW my butt would be in the seat and not posting on the internet.
depends on the mail and how much the drawing are worth. If it's a solid 3%. Im calling in a private investigator. Yes that guy in the white van is following you.Quote: DRichWould you believe me if I said a 50 play 25c FPDW with 1/2% free play and drawings? I didn't think so. :)
Just wanted to make one thing clear. I never said the 50k coin in had to be done in 1 day. I know $2.50 a spin would take a long time but over a weekend wouldn't be bad. I am debating about getting the highest level tier card, I am 50k coin in away so I was curious as to what it would cost to achieve it. Trying to weigh the risk vs rewards of the card.
For those that run sims, is there a software that you use or just excel like our resident craps expert.
Quote: GWAEFor those that run sims, is there a software that you use or just excel like our resident craps expert.
I don't use Excel, but Microsoft Visual C# Express.
just 1Quote: RSWow, a whole extra $50! How many times did you have to run those sims before you got the results you wanted?
in other words
on the very 1st run
oh, you are so pickyQuote: RSMind you, $227 is almost exactly on par with EV. The $171 is just variance. You only ran 10 million hands on the $100 denom on your simulator....and 200x that # of hands on the "bad" one.
you want this one instead
i provided no math at all, just data i hadQuote: RSWe all can see (those who can see) you are providing bad math.
here is some math using my example (from a Markov chain)
0.5885405 * chance of an average loss of 7556.679668 +
0.41145935 *chance of an average win of 10255.32356 = -227.763265
so my $100 denom still wins, and still looks to be beaten - easy enoughs,
as the avg loss is equal but the probability of a loss is less
Ahhhh
2+3 = 5 is difficult for some to understand
the OP needs to learn a lesson...
when you try to simulate your playing ideas on your own,good luck to you,
run large simulations to get more accurate values
now,
no more math for those that HATE it (the haters)
and you (RS) are (is)
the guy that believes 100% that the more you flip a fair coin the closer the actual number of heads and tails becomes
and for playing against a 0% he bet, the longer you play, or the more bets you make, the greater the chance that you lose $0 in real money.
i proved this was 100% wrong B4, and that proof was my opinion
so,
thank you for sharing your opinion!
and, in my other opinion, those that want to believe anything that RS posts online at first read, even at Alan M forums
BEWARE!
Oh
hot dog
just like me and mine
but not yours
Sally
That's tacky rude and uncalled for. I find the impication insulting. RS is a sharp member in good standing, someone who has good AP information and a good understanding. Not to mention, he doesn't take joy in and root for people to lose money like you do.Quote: mustangsally
and, in my other opinion, those that want to believe anything that RS posts online at first read, even at Alan M forums
BEWARE!
He's practical and can relate well with others. He provides solid practical information with explinations people can actually understand. He doesn't arongantly talk over or down to people. He's someone whos actually in the trenches and work's in a casino. Very rare combination. The kid has his S*it together and he's going places.
Its great you have a YouTube business and husban that does well. You have let us know many times Sally can afford to gamble without reservation. We know we know 500k BR (im sure you will correct me and tell me it's higher now)
Your math, simulations, calculations, statistics etc are great. But, your not the only one that can provide it. What you do provide is probably more suited to System bettors and -EV craps player's.
A majority of people asking about this stuff are trying to get their AP on. They are looking for some practical and helpful AP advice that helps achieve a goal without much risk to their bankroll, because they don't have the luxury you do.
In GAWE's case, I don't think you helped much at all.
thank you for sharing your opinion on this 2Quote: AxelWolfThat's tacky rude and uncalled for. I find the impication insulting.
i am so happy that life (yours) is so good to you
i would think, i could be way wrong here, it is not at all so much fun being tied up in any hospital
i wish that on
no one
unless
it helps them
imo, neither did his first postQuote: AxelWolf<snip> In GAWE's case, I don't think you helped much at all.
that is why i wished him luck
and offered a few opinions of my own
you do not like that?
too bad
not sad
Oh
what, you want me to give him $50k so he can punch his own ticket?
hahaha
maybe, only when you give the Wizard $50k so he can give that to his fave charity
now for some poker
(all-in)
Quote: AxelWolf
Its great you have a YouTube business and husban that does well. You have let us know many times Sally can afford to gamble without reservation. We know we know 500k BR (im sure you will correct me and tell me it's higher now) .
Is it about creative roulette strategies?
Quote: RSSally, you should know damn well playing the $100 machine is an awful idea for GWAE. The thread is asking about RISK OF RUIN....and you're saying $100 machine is best option. That is completely bad information. And please do not insult me again, nor twist my words and lie about what I think.
I agree with RS to the extent that this does not meaningfully answer the RoR information initially sought by GWAE.
Further, Sally's simulation stated it was based on 9/6 JoB, but GWAE asked about (though not initially specified) a, "97% game," so 9/6 Jacks or Better in no way attempts to answer the initial question.
Finally, just as a hypothetical, let's consider that there were a $10,000/denom Video Poker machine upon which GWAE could make one $50,000 bet on 9/6 JoB: The probability of a session loss would be 0.54543467 and he would obviously need a bankroll of $50,000 to get $50,000 coin-in.
In short, in Sally's apparent view, we would have a new winner.
However, a $50,000 bet with $50,000 bankroll and a 54.543467% chance of losing all $50,000 clearly has nothing to do with a 1% RoR because the RoR is also 54.543467%.
Sally loves opinions, as do I, and mine is she made no meaningful effort to answer the question posed.
OTHER SIDE:
On the other hand, GWAE may have done well to give us an approximation of the bankroll with which he is going after this specific play in the beginning, and a full selection of the games and denominations available to him, and then we could have given the pros and cons of the best options.
my opinion still standsQuote: Mission146On the other hand, GWAE may have done well to give us an approximation of the bankroll with which he is going after this specific play in the beginning, and a full selection of the games and denominations available to him, and then we could have given the pros and cons of the best options.
have $50k in the casino waiting for you
for a 0% RoR
who can do better than that?
Oh wait, how about contacting one in a power position and offer them, say, $389 in exchange for the $50k coin-in thing
OP might just make some one have a great day from a real bad day
oh wait again
I won BIG TIME on my Angels OVER last night
should i DUE that again?
(I was laughed at for wanting to "throw away my money")
ready
set
catch!
later for dinner looks great
i will watch and be quiet from now on, in this thread
it has some entertainment value still
for sure
I'm glad your Angels bets are going well.
Maybe someone assumed after 25 hrs of play on 9/6 he would be gettingQuote: Mission146There's no need to be quiet. Quite honestly, my main point of contention was that 9/6 Jacks in no way satisfies his asking about a 97% game.
I'm glad your Angels bets are going well.
97% payback (-;
He'd still be doing better than this guy I saw two weeks ago. I'm pretty sure he thought any five cards of the same color is a Flush.
Quote: ThatDonGuyIn other words, 20,000 hands without losing the bankroll first.
Assuming you are playing 8/5 Jacks or Better using "perfect strategy" (and using the Wizard's stated hand probabilities), I get through simulation:
1235 bets ($3087.5) for risk of ruin 10%
1510 bets ($3775) for risk of ruin 1%
I didn't calculate the slot machine version as I don't know nearly enough about actual slot machine probabilities to be able to simulate it with any degree of certainty.
Thanks for continuing with this ThatDonGuy. I got distracted with this the last couple of days.
Quote: AxelWolf
I really want a juicy play on Winning streak VP http://www.wms.com/Games/MyPoker/Pages/WinningStreakPoker.aspx.
Good luck with that. I have only seen garbage paytables on those games. They have been yanked from every CET property I've once seen them at.
Newb asked a question. I honestly think he was trying to get some guidance, he's probably at critical point in understanding and taking the next step from -EV to possibility +EV.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/22642-questions-from-a-newbie/#post471054
Here is the gist of it.
Here is your adviceQuote: theoriemeister
1. Since I'm not playing to walk away with tons of money, what I really want to do is improve my winning percentage. My little knowledge of card counting leads me to believe that most systems have to do with how much to wager and when to wager it. First question: at what point does card counting alter basic strategy?
Technically your right, but are you seriously that literal minded you didn't understand what he meant? Or were you trying to be a smart ass?Quote: mustangsallyby how much?Quote: theoriemeisterYet I'll still get my ass kicked at the table, which, as everyone here knows, is really frustrating. (However, that's when I'm glad I'm only losing $60 at that session, as opposed to the hundreds of dollars I see others around me lose!)
Anyway, I figure that my next level of training should be card counting. So, here are my questions to the community:
1. Since I'm not playing to walk away with tons of money, what I really want to do is improve my winning percentage.
card counting will not do this
if you want to go from winning 42 out of 100 to 49 out of 100 for example
here is from an expert
"There is a common misconception that you win many more hands at higher counts. Unfortunately this is not true."
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm
i say try another game to have a winning percentage higher than BJ
if that is the #1 thing that matters to you the most
Roulette comes to mind at 18/38
Have fun (sounds like you do not)
i have fun
Sally
Quote: AxelWolfMaybe someone assumed after 25 hrs of play on 9/6 he would be getting
97% payback (-;
Now that is funny.
I guess I should have asked the question more specifically. Did not realize my vagueness was going to cause a problem.
Should have said; going to play .50 8/5 JoB. Time frame is not a factor. This does not have to happen in 1 day. I need to obtain 50k coin in. How much bankroll do I need to have a 1% RoR? What if I have 5k, what is my average final bankroll after 50k through?
that answer has been given a few times so farQuote: GWAEShould have said; going to play .50 8/5 JoB.
Time frame is not a factor.
This does not have to happen in 1 day.
I need to obtain 50k coin in.
How much bankroll do I need to have a 1% RoR?
I agree with Don
with me Markov chain (our values are very close)
here is what your final end bank looks likeQuote: GWAEWhat if I have 5k, what is my average final bankroll after 50k through?
this is my blue mood mode (no math)
mean = -$1350.98
i say
more likely (because of the no Royal) to be around the mode of -$-2,355
total ruin less less likely at 1 in 92,592.59259 (not impossible if you are a 1 in a million type person)
la-te-da
la la la la
another view
X or less (some call this cumulative)
Oh,
others may share their opinions 2 (1+1)
as i did, because opinions rule!
now off to dream land
should i
again bet the OVER on tomorrows (Sat game) Angel game
as I keep winning (well, 5 out of 6)
or
shouldn't i?
that is the question
no Royals for me today
maybe next day
