Poll

21 votes (53.84%)
18 votes (46.15%)

39 members have voted

gambler
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June 12th, 2010 at 11:47:12 AM permalink
A good friend of mine is willing to bet me $20,000 that I can not gamble for two years. This includes all forms of gambling from online poker to sports betting to lotto scratch tickets to casino games. The good news is that I live in a place where there are no casinos nearby. I do play some online poker, but not as much as I did a few years ago.

When I go to Las Vegas, I normally have a line of credit between $25,000 to $50,000, but have a theoretical loss of about $2,000 to $3,000 per trip (craps player). Therefore winning this bet would pay for my theoretical gambling losses for about two year (four trips to Vegas per year).

If I decide to take this bet, I have the strength and the will power to not gamble for two years. And that's $20,000 in my pocket. Not a life changing amount for me, but still a good amount of money.

The problem is that I love Las Vegas! And I love to gamble! As mentioned above I take about four trips to Vegas per year and enjoy every aspect of the city. I guess I could still go to Las Vegas and not gamble, but that would be torture. I'm an honorable kind of guy and would not cheat for this bet.

So I need help. What would you do if you were in my situation? Imagine someone offered you two years worth of theortetical losses if you do not gamble for two years. Would you take that bet?
matilda
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June 12th, 2010 at 12:01:03 PM permalink
If you take the bet, you have already lost since that bet is gambling.
gambler
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June 12th, 2010 at 12:04:57 PM permalink
Quote: matilda

If you take the bet, you have already lost since that bet is gambling.



Laugh. Well, it would start after the agreement has been made. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.
DJTeddyBear
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June 12th, 2010 at 1:30:03 PM permalink
Even without reading the details about your credit line, I know from other posts that your typical gambling bankroll is several times my typical gambling bankroll. That $20K would represent a considerable percentage of my annual salary, but I assume a much smaller percentage of your income.

Am I painting a picture that $20K is a lot more to me than it is to you?

That said, *I* would have a very hard time not gambling for ANY extended period of time, to make $20K. And that's even if the wager gave me 100:1 odds.

I can't imagine how you would handle it.

I gotta assume that the person challenging you is not giving odds. So it's not a mere $20K wager, but a swing of $40K!


For those reasons, I say pass.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
bluefire
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June 12th, 2010 at 2:08:15 PM permalink
This is something that you're going to have to decide yourself. I've got plenty of other places that I'd like to see besides Vegas, and not going to Vegas for two years would give me the chance to do that. Plus, even with those vacations, you could still have a lot of the 20k left over.

However, if you don't really have any interest in traveling to other places, and 20k isn't that much, then why do it? Go with what is fun for you.
dwheatley
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June 12th, 2010 at 2:28:10 PM permalink
It's the perfect bet! Instead of expecting to lose 20'000 over 2 years, you will be guaranteed ahead 20k. Like DJ said, that's 40k to work with. Go to Hawaii or Rome every time you feel like gambling and blow off some steam. You'll still be ahead!!
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
chifool55
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June 12th, 2010 at 2:37:16 PM permalink
Quote: gambler

Would you take that bet?



After 28 years of second hand smoke in casinos, I realized I’m no longer a compulsive gambler and no longer a pathological gambler. I’m just a smoker and I can quit smoking any time I want. You can too.

Take his $20,000.00

---------------------------

Compulsive - 2 : of, relating to, caused by, or suggestive of psychological compulsion or obsession

Compulsion - 2 : an irresistible persistent impulse to perform an act

Pathological - 3 : being such to a degree that is extreme, excessive, or markedly abnormal

Smoker - 1 : one that smokes

Smoke - 3 : to inhale and exhale the smoke of (smoke a cigarette)
FinsRule
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June 12th, 2010 at 3:49:24 PM permalink
I'm in a family NFL picking league that costs $20 a year. It would suck to not be able to do that for 2 years. I'd have to quit my fantasy baseball & football leagues also.

But, in two years I'd have enough for a down payment on a house. My wife would not let me not make that bet...
helpmespock
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June 12th, 2010 at 3:52:04 PM permalink
Let me take a bit of a different tack on this one gambler.

Can your friend afford to pay you $20,000 easily?

If he can pay you the $20,000 will it ruin your friendship if he does? Will it ruin the friendship if you have to pay him if you do gamble?

All things considered, I would not take the bet given the whole situation.
Nareed
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June 12th, 2010 at 6:43:23 PM permalink
Tell your friend I'll gladly take that bet ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
s2dbaker
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June 12th, 2010 at 7:46:56 PM permalink
Make sure that the terms do not include casual comments like, "Bet you can't eat just one" or "Betcha he steals second", etc..
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
gambler
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June 12th, 2010 at 8:10:34 PM permalink
Quote: helpmespock

Let me take a bit of a different tack on this one gambler.

Can your friend afford to pay you $20,000 easily?

If he can pay you the $20,000 will it ruin your friendship if he does? Will it ruin the friendship if you have to pay him if you do gamble?



These are good questions helpmespock.

Yes, my friend and I are both good for $20,000. He is also a Vegas-a-holic and while we both have about the same credit lines, he loses a lot more because he plays poor expectation games. Winning or losing this bet would not ruin our friendship one way or the other.

While I have strong will power, he suggested today that he would like to require me to take 1 trip per year with him to Vegas to watch him gamble and not gamble myself! What torture. I think I am going to up the bet to $25,000 or $30,000 if that is part of the deal.

Quote: s2dbaker

Make sure that the terms do not include casual comments like, "Bet you can't eat just one" or "Betcha he steals second", etc..



Good point. We won't be overly silly about this. We are both trustworthy and honest. The tough part is making the initial choice. If I agree to not gambling for two years, I won't.

I still have a few days to make the choice, so keep the advice coming. My wife, who enjoys Vegas and gambling but to the level that I do, would rather me take the bet and save the money. Then take a huge trip to Vegas with the savings/extra cash.

I'm still about 50%-50% on this right now. I wish the forum would lean heavily one way or another to help me make my choice.
nyuhoosier
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June 13th, 2010 at 5:44:01 AM permalink
It would be nearly impossible for me, as I live in Vegas. That doesn't help you much.

I guess it really comes down to what $20,000 means to you. I mean, if you make $50,000 for one year of work, that amount has some meaning. If you make $200,000 or more a year, it is less than 10 percent of your earnings so it might not mean as much. I say it's perfectly normal to spend 10 percent of your salary on your favorite hobby, so I'd turn it down and keep doing what you're doing. If you make less than $100,000, you have to give this some serious thought.

The best option for you would be to negotiate a one-year agreement for $10,000 or even $7,500. I think you could easily lay off for one year.
DJTeddyBear
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June 13th, 2010 at 5:53:02 AM permalink
Quote: nyuhoosier

It would be nearly impossible for me, as I live in Vegas. That doesn't help you much.

With all the new casinos opening lately, it's getting harder to throw a dart at a map of the USA and end up any prohibitive distance from a casino.

And that also means that when you go on vacation, more likely than not, you'll be near a casino....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
joenunz
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June 13th, 2010 at 10:07:23 AM permalink
Quote: gambler



While I have strong will power, he suggested today that he would like to require me to take 1 trip per year with him to Vegas to watch him gamble and not gamble myself! What torture. I think I am going to up the bet to $25,000 or $30,000 if that is part of the deal.




Ewww. That sounds like some weirdo cuckolding deal. Geez.

Don't make the bet.
Insurance is closed.
nyuhoosier
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June 13th, 2010 at 10:30:26 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

With all the new casinos opening lately, it's getting harder to throw a dart at a map of the USA and end up any prohibitive distance from a casino.

And that also means that when you go on vacation, more likely than not, you'll be near a casino....



That is true, but the temptation would be infinitely worse here. I can't even walk into a gas station without a bank of VP machines staring me in the face. Every stool in almost every bar has a screen in front of it. I hope to leave Vegas soon, and I'll miss the convenience, but it can get to be too much.
DJTeddyBear
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June 13th, 2010 at 1:09:58 PM permalink
I hadn't noticed this before....
Quote: gambler

While I have strong will power, he suggested today that he would like to require me to take 1 trip per year with him to Vegas to watch him gamble and not gamble myself! What torture. I think I am going to up the bet to $25,000 or $30,000 if that is part of the deal.

Sounds like your friend is a dick. And/or he's been rethinking it and is concerned that you might actually be able to do it. Instead of upping the ante, you should be looking to get odds!

For what it's worth, watching him gamble may or may not be a problem. If he continues to play the high HA stupid games that you have no interest in, then it won't really interest you. However, he may play craps, or get a table near the craps table, just to help make you go nuts.


Quote: gambler

I'm still about 50%-50% on this right now. I wish the forum would lean heavily one way or another to help me make my choice.

Only you can make that kind of decision. But here's something you can try. Go to a casino, and spend an entire day without wagering a dime.

I bet you can't do it. :)
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
kenarman
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June 13th, 2010 at 1:20:46 PM permalink
I don't know your age or care to but if it was my decision it would come into play. What percentage of your remaining expected life are you selling for $20k? Is 2 years 15% or 3% of your likely remaining active life? I find as I get older I really don't really have the patience to put up with BS anymore. I just move on to something I enjoy and am lucky enough to even be able to do that at work.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
teddys
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June 13th, 2010 at 3:58:22 PM permalink
I don't know your situation but I would take that bet in almost any situation.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
DJTeddyBear
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June 13th, 2010 at 6:16:33 PM permalink
If you take it, you REALLY need to get an agreement on what forms of gambling count.

I.E. Would buying a church raffle count? What about other typical activities that can be called gambling, such as investing in the stock market, or investing in something more risky and speculative?


I don't recall what you said you do for a living, but I think you make a bunch more money than most of us.

Have you ever 'gambled' with investing in venture capital? If not, is it something that you'd consider? Would that be gambling?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
DJGenius
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June 13th, 2010 at 6:39:33 PM permalink
If I were you, I would take it in a heartbeat, regardless of how much money you make. $20,000 is $20,000, and as you said, it's roughly how much you would lose during that time. Take the bet... as long you are absolutely positive you can do it, that is.
"The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all." - Elf Queen Galadriel, teaching Frodo about the importance of blackjack basic strategy.
rdw4potus
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June 13th, 2010 at 7:47:00 PM permalink
I would almost certainly take this bet. Like others have stated, I would want some sort of formal agreement or clear understanding of what constituted "gambling."

I could go without casinos or the lottery with no problem. One thing I don't see that anyone has mentioned yet, but that will have consequences, is that you'll age out at the casinos you visit in vegas and lose your player club rating and existing comps. Don't forget to count the lost standing and comp offers against the $20K profit.

I could even force myself to go without interpersonal proposition betting (that would be HARD in my office). I would also have a hard time not betting while playing sports. I can't even think of the last time I didn't wager *something* on a round of golf. But for $20K, I'd find a way to make it work.

Personally, I would try to get an exception for fantasy leagues. Two years without fantasy football would be very hard for me. To the extent that those leagues are usually more about banter and pride and less about money, I would try hard to get them exempted.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Nareed
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June 13th, 2010 at 8:00:39 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I would almost certainly take this bet. Like others have stated, I would want some sort of formal agreement or clear understanding of what constituted "gambling."



That, and for that much money I'd ask for a bond, a deposit or at least a notarized contract.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
DJTeddyBear
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June 14th, 2010 at 5:14:18 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I could go without casinos or the lottery with no problem. One thing I don't see that anyone has mentioned yet, but that will have consequences, is that you'll age out at the casinos you visit in vegas and lose your player club rating and existing comps. Don't forget to count the lost standing and comp offers against the $20K profit.

Actually, for a gambler of his level, this is probably not a problem.

If Gambler suddenly stopped going to casinos, and then re-appeared after two years, yeah, that may be a problem. After all, the casinos might think that he was still gambling, but elsewhere.

But if he called his hosts ahead of time, and told that that he is going on this hiatus for two years, it will be less of a problem when the two years are up.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
odiousgambit
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June 14th, 2010 at 5:54:36 AM permalink
you'd absolutely have to come up with something else to occupy your urge for recreation.

if it has to involve money, play the commodities or stock market. There's no way he can ask you not to be "investing" in something, we all need to do that. So your investment activities are none of his business.

I agree that you should take steps to be sure that he can not welch on the bet.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
chifool55
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June 14th, 2010 at 8:15:00 AM permalink
A friend of mine and I bet each other $500 on stopping casino gambling and lottery for 6 months. We each made it the time. The day after it was over we both went to the riverboat and lost bad. We had a good time.
gambler
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June 14th, 2010 at 8:36:59 AM permalink
Quote: chifool55

A friend of mine and I bet each other $500 on stopping casino gambling and lottery for 6 months. We each made it the time. The day after it was over we both went to the riverboat and lost bad. We had a good time.



Laugh. This is probably what will happen to me. I will wait two years, win my $20,000 bet. Shout woo hoo! Go to Vegas and lose $100,000. Still, it might be fun.
Nareed
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June 14th, 2010 at 8:57:58 AM permalink
Anyone recall a Twilight Zone episode where one guy bets another he can't stay silent for one year?

It didn't end well for the winner...
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
ruascott
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June 14th, 2010 at 9:00:12 AM permalink
Yeah, as few others have stated its really a matter of relevancy. Since your normal bankroll is probably 10x what most on here take to Vegas, we have to question whether $20k is really a big deal to you.

Put another way, would everyone else on here that is saying "take the money" do so if the amount was $2k and not $20k? Everybody has a threshold they would consider significant enough to make sacrfices in their lives. I'd guess most people on here if offerd $200, would laugh and say forget it.

The point that someone else made about your age is also important. Do you really want to give up two years of your life with something that you really enjoy? Only you can answer that.
Ayecarumba
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June 14th, 2010 at 12:36:52 PM permalink
I would advise you to take the bet. However, I would give your wife half the action to encourage her to keep you distracted. Having someone on your side will smooth out the rough spots, and your relationship with your wife will get a real boost. Go get that money!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
odiousgambit
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June 14th, 2010 at 12:44:05 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Anyone recall a Twilight Zone episode where one guy bets another he can't stay silent for one year?

It didn't end well for the winner...



yes indeed, and again the ultimate precaution was ignored... your guy must not welch.

for that matter, he has to trust you arent sneaking off to gamble. How would he know?

Trust here is two-way.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
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June 14th, 2010 at 1:39:41 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

yes indeed, and again the ultimate precaution was ignored... your guy must not welch.



Given what the winner did to win the bet, you'd think he would have insisted on some guarantee first. Not that horror stories ever make sense, of course.

Quote:

for that matter, he has to trust you arent sneaking off to gamble. How would he know?

Trust here is two-way.



Most people cheat if they think they can get away with it. A great many have no clue how to estimate their chanves of cheating successfully, ergo they get caught rather easily.

Short of having our colleague wear a videocamera 24/7, I don't see how the wager can be enforced.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
konceptum
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June 14th, 2010 at 6:23:57 PM permalink
The obvious answer is to not take the bet. It is clearly the better option of the two. The reasoning is simple, and has been stated earlier by other people. The fact is that the amount of money you are winning is roughly equivalent to what you may win and/or lose during the two years in question. Thus, you are throwing away two years of doing something that you enjoy, in exchange for an insignificant (to your position) amount of money.
joenunz
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June 14th, 2010 at 7:21:07 PM permalink
Quote: konceptum

The obvious answer is to not take the bet. It is clearly the better option of the two. The reasoning is simple, and has been stated earlier by other people. The fact is that the amount of money you are winning is roughly equivalent to what you may win and/or lose during the two years in question. Thus, you are throwing away two years of doing something that you enjoy, in exchange for an insignificant (to your position) amount of money.



I agree 100%.

Worst.
Bet.
Ever.
Insurance is closed.
Ayecarumba
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:13:48 AM permalink
Quote: joenunz

I agree 100%.

Worst.
Bet.
Ever.



I disagree. The player has control over the outcome since the wager is determined by his actions. There is nothing random about it. He should think about it as getting paid 10k a year to enjoy time with his wife. A nice wage.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
joenunz
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:29:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I disagree. The player has control over the outcome since the wager is determined by his actions. There is nothing random about it. He should think about it as getting paid 10k a year to enjoy time with his wife. A nice wage.



Fair enough, so I will rephrase...

Least.
Fun.
Bet.
Ever.
Insurance is closed.
ruascott
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:33:43 PM permalink
A nice wage for you maybe. Maybe a week (or less) income for him. $400/year might be a good wage for someone from a third world country...but would it still be a good bet that you would take? I'd guess probably not. Its all relative.

If the $20k isn't going to change your life (and it sounds like it won't) screw it. Life is too short to give up what you love doing. You really going to look back in your final years and be glad you gave up 2 yrs for an extra $20k? My guess is no. So unless you have something equally enjoyable to substitute into your life start planning your next Vegas trip today.
odiousgambit
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:36:35 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Short of having our colleague wear a videocamera 24/7, I don't see how the wager can be enforced.



ankle bracelet time!! [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
pacomartin
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June 17th, 2010 at 3:55:28 PM permalink
Have you ever seen the original Twlight Series episode called The Silence about an exclusive men's club where one member bets another annoying member that he can't stay silent for an entire year? The bet is for $1/2 million. I won't spoil the ending for you even though it has been on TV for almost half a century so most people have seen it.

It's a classic episode. Available on youtube .
Nareed
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June 17th, 2010 at 4:26:13 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Have you ever seen the original Twlight Series episode called The Silence about an exclusive men's club where one member bets another annoying member that he can't stay silent for an entire year?



Yes. That's the TZ ep I mentioned up-thread.

Things dind't go well for the winner.

There's an episode from, I think, Night Gallery, in which an old guy bets a younger man he can't light a cigarette lighter ten times in a row. If the youngster wins, he gets the old man's car. if he loses, the old man gets the youngster's left pinky finger.

The ending is unexpected but perfectly logical.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Jaywall
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June 17th, 2010 at 4:40:02 PM permalink
The granddaddy of such genre seems to be Chekhov's "The Bet", in which a banker bets 7 million Rubles that someone stays in a private jail for 15 years. A young lawyer takes the bet. The banker later loses most of his fortune, and tries to kill the no-longer-young lawyer to stiff paying.

The story is on public domain so you can look up the ending yourself.
gambler
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June 17th, 2010 at 9:33:26 PM permalink
Thanks for all of the great advice everyone. After much thought, I have decided not to take the bet.

While the idea of winning $20,000 sounds great, two years of not gambling is too much for me. Thanks again everyone.
ruascott
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June 18th, 2010 at 6:37:44 AM permalink
Good choice! When is your next Vegas trip?
joenunz
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June 18th, 2010 at 8:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: gambler

Thanks for all of the great advice everyone. After much thought, I have decided not to take the bet.

While the idea of winning $20,000 sounds great, two years of not gambling is too much for me. Thanks again everyone.



Excellent!

I bet somebody $20 that you wouldn't take the bet...!

jk
Insurance is closed.
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