ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4829
November 15th, 2014 at 8:19:35 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

"But simply saying I have a memory of what came previously in a game where each individual event has no bearing on the next - that is meaningless."

- I am wondering what exactly you mean by this?

Does not things like probability play a role?

If I know that it is VERY unlikey for something to happen could I not take advantage of this with regards roulette?

Are you denying causality? Help me understand where you're coming from...........

Probability plays a role - just not in the way that you think.

Look at it this way:

On a double-zero roulette wheel, the probability of a bet on a particular dozen (or column) winning is 12/38, or 6/19.

The probability of a particular dozen winning six times in a row is (6/19)6 = about 1/1008.

However, the probability of a dozen winning five times in a row and then losing is (6/19)5 x 13/19 = about 1/465, or exactly 13/6 x the probability of that dozen winning six times in a row.

Not coincidentally, the probability of a dozen losing on any single spin is also 13/6 x the probability of it winning on that spin.

It's not "VERY unlikely" for a bet to win 20 times in a row if it has just already happened 19 in a row.

(Besides - even if the wheel did have a "memory", what if, prior to a dozen winning five times in a row, it lost the previous 25 times in a row, before you arrived?)
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 8:27:08 AM permalink
"Gambler's fallacy does not apply when the probability of different events is not independent, the probability of future events can change based on the outcome of past events (see statistical permutation). Formally, the system is said to have memory."-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Surely we are part of the system if we are observing it?

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_%28physics%29
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 8:30:37 AM permalink
"(Besides - even if the wheel did have a "memory", what if, prior to a dozen winning five times in a row, it lost the previous 25 times in a row, before you arrived?) "

Yes but what if you only stood up to bet after observing the wheel for much time? Surely you would have a very good chance of winning based on what you have already observed to be the trends occurring?
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
• Posts: 5701
November 15th, 2014 at 8:32:28 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

Ok, so things are becoming a little clearer now- Apparently there are ways to win with other games, but roullette is NOT one of them?

No you can win and people do it everyday. Its just that no one can or ever will do it long term.

Take whatever amount you have and bet it on 34 of the 38 spots on the wheel just 1 time.....you PROBABLY will win a little money.

But if you do this 100 times....you PROBABLY will lose money

And if you do this 1000 times....you WILL lose money.

Make sense?
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 8:57:33 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

No you can win and people do it everyday. Its just that no one can or ever will do it long term.

Take whatever amount you have and bet it on 34 of the 38 spots on the wheel just 1 time.....you PROBABLY will win a little money.

But if you do this 100 times....you PROBABLY will lose money

And if you do this 1000 times....you WILL lose money.

Make sense?

But why??

At the moment I can see that there seems to be a presumption that roulette is completely random?

Believe me if it's true I will steer clear of it and focus on card counting- But I wonder.... It couldn't be completely random could it? It seems that absolutely everything in the universe is corresponding to patterns of some sort or another..

I am wondering if people are saying to stay clear of roulette simply because it "has no memory" and is "random" when in fact as a system inconjuction with us as the observer there is in fact memory present.., and therefore pattern could be distinguished and profited upon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_%28physics%29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 8:59:37 AM permalink
If we were to presume that roulette- inconjuction with us as an observer- that the "Gambler's fallacy does NOT apply" BECAUSE- when the probability of different events is not independent, the probability of future events can change based on the outcome of past events (see statistical permutation). Formally, the system is said to have memory. ---Would this make a difference?
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19437
November 15th, 2014 at 9:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

Someone probably already pointed out there are METHODS/STRATEGIES that can be used to beat certain games(thats what the Wizard is referring to) like Blackjack and Video poker. Card counting works for blackjack, as do other grey area type methods like hole carding. Occasionally table games have a progressive that becomes positive or the casinos have special promotions that create a +EV situation. Video poker is a special case, some machines (not many ) have a theoretical payback thats over 100% normally 100.7 or below.
Some Slots may have a banking bonus or progressive that becomes player positive.

Everything that you can expect a method or strategy to work on can be calculated and show proof why it works.

As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage.

its possible for there to be a biased Roulette wheel or you can possibly track it.(good luck with that)

If you want to start talking quantum mechanics, String Theory, Voodoo, supernatural, zen etc etc good luck you will need it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 9:55:57 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Someone probably already pointed out there are METHODS/STRATEGIES that can be used to beat certain games(thats what the Wizard is referring to) like Blackjack and Video poker. Card counting works for blackjack, as do other grey area type methods like hole carding. Occasionally table games have a progressive that becomes positive or the casinos have special promotions that create a +EV situation. Video poker is a special case, some machines (not many ) have a theoretical payback thats over 100% normally 100.7 or below.
Some Slots may have a banking bonus or progressive that becomes player positive.

Everything that you can expect a method or strategy to work on can be calculated and show proof why it works.

As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage.

its possible for there to be a biased Roulette wheel or you can possibly track it.(good luck with that)

If you want to start talking quantum mechanics, String Theory, Voodoo, supernatural, zen etc etc good luck you will need it.

Cheers for the feedback haha

....................."As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage." .... that has been discovered as yet or has been discovered yet no revealed...

Anyway, looks like I'm ganna go hit up some blackjack!
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19437
November 15th, 2014 at 10:26:45 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

Cheers for the feedback haha

....................."As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage." .... that has been discovered as yet or has been discovered yet no revealed...

Anyway, looks like I'm ganna go hit up some blackjack!

So you think if someone on the forum discovered it, they are sitting around just waiting for you?

If you figure something out for yourself, delete your WOV account, keep your mouth shut and go quietly rape the casinos.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
November 15th, 2014 at 10:49:25 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

I am wondering if people are saying to stay clear of roulette simply because it "has no memory" and is "random" when in fact as a system inconjuction with us as the observer there is in fact memory present.., and therefore pattern could be distinguished and profited upon

Oh yes, once you throw in the observer you get "patterns"...roulette, baccarat, craps, casino war, anything.

With the same fundamental situation: Red or Black on the next spin is not dependent upon your pattern interpretation, hopes or desires. Ten REDS in a row can always become eleven Reds in a row just as it can become Black or Green.