An idea for a winning STRATEGY (Roulette)
I was thinking about how it could be possible to have a winning strategy for roulette using the theories of probability and the "law of averages"...
Starting to think about wether if only betting in each situation where something has a very strong probability of winning..
For example- Say you only bet when 8 of the same "dozen" came up i.e. spin numbers (History) 4,5,2,8,7,9,1,9
AND THEN- In this situation you bet on the other 2 dozens (13-24) + (25-36)
What do you think? Would not there be a strong probability of the other 2 dozens coming up in a situation like this? Or am I off-track here? What if one was to wait for even more of the same dozen, even 12 times?
There is also the idea I've seen where you wait for 1 of the dozen to NOT come up in history for many spins- 10+ and then bet on it instead for a greater return....
Do you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?
Quote: FleaStiffBy law of averages you really mean law of large numbers and there is always a set of large numbers wherein the most ridiculous and absurd things have happened.
Do you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?
No- But we are... We have a memory and we look at the history and that does actually count for something. It does actually have bearing.... Look into Quantum Mechanics for your proof on that one..
I find it unuseful to simply dismiss everything based upon a "gamblers fallacy" it get nowhere
The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........
Yes, I myself have seen the most crazy things happen too, but if a strategy was divised wherein a loss was extremely unlikey- It could just work.... I am hopeful there's a way.
Call me an Optimist in that regard ;)
Quote: FleaStiffDo you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?
No. But remember, there are two balls at most roulette tables, and the bigger one does keep track.
Quote: GreasyjohnNo. But remember, there are two balls at most roulette tables, and the bigger one does keep track.
Of course, that's because he's already paid his dues by traveling around the wheel hundreds of thousands of times. And he shouts at the little one to land on certain numbers to 'even things out'.
Quote: warpzones
The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........
Quote: warpzones
The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........
did the Wizard explain how this would work? I can tell You that there is no strategy to beat European one zero or US double zero roulette. save Your time and efforts.
my 2 cents
A system is where you base your betting pattern on past events - there is no system that works.
A strategy is where you base your betting pattern on something that is manipulated by your knowledge - example, card counting.
There are other strategies where you can put your mind to work. But simply saying I have a memory of what came previously in a game where each individual event has no bearing on the next - that is meaningless.
- I am wondering what exactly you mean by this?
Does not things like probability play a role?
If I know that it is VERY unlikey for something to happen could I not take advantage of this with regards roulette?
Are you denying causality? Help me understand where you're coming from...........
Quote: warpzones"But simply saying I have a memory of what came previously in a game where each individual event has no bearing on the next - that is meaningless."
- I am wondering what exactly you mean by this?
Does not things like probability play a role?
If I know that it is VERY unlikey for something to happen could I not take advantage of this with regards roulette?
Are you denying causality? Help me understand where you're coming from...........
Probability plays a role - just not in the way that you think.
Look at it this way:
On a double-zero roulette wheel, the probability of a bet on a particular dozen (or column) winning is 12/38, or 6/19.
The probability of a particular dozen winning six times in a row is (6/19)6 = about 1/1008.
However, the probability of a dozen winning five times in a row and then losing is (6/19)5 x 13/19 = about 1/465, or exactly 13/6 x the probability of that dozen winning six times in a row.
Not coincidentally, the probability of a dozen losing on any single spin is also 13/6 x the probability of it winning on that spin.
It's not "VERY unlikely" for a bet to win 20 times in a row if it has just already happened 19 in a row.
(Besides - even if the wheel did have a "memory", what if, prior to a dozen winning five times in a row, it lost the previous 25 times in a row, before you arrived?)
Surely we are part of the system if we are observing it?
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_%28physics%29
Yes but what if you only stood up to bet after observing the wheel for much time? Surely you would have a very good chance of winning based on what you have already observed to be the trends occurring?
Quote: warpzonesOk, so things are becoming a little clearer now- Apparently there are ways to win with other games, but roullette is NOT one of them?
No you can win and people do it everyday. Its just that no one can or ever will do it long term.
Take whatever amount you have and bet it on 34 of the 38 spots on the wheel just 1 time.....you PROBABLY will win a little money.
But if you do this 100 times....you PROBABLY will lose money
And if you do this 1000 times....you WILL lose money.
Make sense?
Quote: BozNo you can win and people do it everyday. Its just that no one can or ever will do it long term.
Take whatever amount you have and bet it on 34 of the 38 spots on the wheel just 1 time.....you PROBABLY will win a little money.
But if you do this 100 times....you PROBABLY will lose money
And if you do this 1000 times....you WILL lose money.
Make sense?
But why??
At the moment I can see that there seems to be a presumption that roulette is completely random?
Believe me if it's true I will steer clear of it and focus on card counting- But I wonder.... It couldn't be completely random could it? It seems that absolutely everything in the universe is corresponding to patterns of some sort or another..
I am wondering if people are saying to stay clear of roulette simply because it "has no memory" and is "random" when in fact as a system inconjuction with us as the observer there is in fact memory present.., and therefore pattern could be distinguished and profited upon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_%28physics%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect
Someone probably already pointed out there are METHODS/STRATEGIES that can be used to beat certain games(thats what the Wizard is referring to) like Blackjack and Video poker. Card counting works for blackjack, as do other grey area type methods like hole carding. Occasionally table games have a progressive that becomes positive or the casinos have special promotions that create a +EV situation. Video poker is a special case, some machines (not many ) have a theoretical payback thats over 100% normally 100.7 or below.Quote: warpzones
Some Slots may have a banking bonus or progressive that becomes player positive.
Everything that you can expect a method or strategy to work on can be calculated and show proof why it works.
As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage.
its possible for there to be a biased Roulette wheel or you can possibly track it.(good luck with that)
If you want to start talking quantum mechanics, String Theory, Voodoo, supernatural, zen etc etc good luck you will need it.
Quote: AxelWolfSomeone probably already pointed out there are METHODS/STRATEGIES that can be used to beat certain games(thats what the Wizard is referring to) like Blackjack and Video poker. Card counting works for blackjack, as do other grey area type methods like hole carding. Occasionally table games have a progressive that becomes positive or the casinos have special promotions that create a +EV situation. Video poker is a special case, some machines (not many ) have a theoretical payback thats over 100% normally 100.7 or below.
Some Slots may have a banking bonus or progressive that becomes player positive.
Everything that you can expect a method or strategy to work on can be calculated and show proof why it works.
As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage.
its possible for there to be a biased Roulette wheel or you can possibly track it.(good luck with that)
If you want to start talking quantum mechanics, String Theory, Voodoo, supernatural, zen etc etc good luck you will need it.
Cheers for the feedback haha
....................."As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage." .... that has been discovered as yet or has been discovered yet no revealed...
Anyway, looks like I'm ganna go hit up some blackjack!
So you think if someone on the forum discovered it, they are sitting around just waiting for you?Quote: warpzonesCheers for the feedback haha
....................."As far as Roulette, craps, Baccarat and most other table games there's no legitimate system that uses selective betting, money management or history that can overcome the house advantage." .... that has been discovered as yet or has been discovered yet no revealed...
Anyway, looks like I'm ganna go hit up some blackjack!
If you figure something out for yourself, delete your WOV account, keep your mouth shut and go quietly rape the casinos.
Quote: warpzones
I am wondering if people are saying to stay clear of roulette simply because it "has no memory" and is "random" when in fact as a system inconjuction with us as the observer there is in fact memory present.., and therefore pattern could be distinguished and profited upon
Oh yes, once you throw in the observer you get "patterns"...roulette, baccarat, craps, casino war, anything.
With the same fundamental situation: Red or Black on the next spin is not dependent upon your pattern interpretation, hopes or desires. Ten REDS in a row can always become eleven Reds in a row just as it can become Black or Green.
To clarify it is obvious that 10 consecutive reds (or heads or whatever) don't come as often as say 3 reds. This is just the nature of normalized distribution of a random event or outcome (unless not random).
So why not bet more on black after observing 10 consecutive reds... !? I think when I raised this someone to clarify it said the reason is you are not betting on any pattern or combination of outcomes, you are betting on just one hand/roll and that is that, you just consider that one hand, and for that hand the odds are the same for red or black (or head/tail).
Which makes sense to a point, but here is the question, how can you bet on combination or consecutive results if you want to, is there a way to do that ... !?
Say we agree to throw the coin 100 times, and I say if you get 10 consecutive heads you give me so and so for every streak and otherwise I give you so and so. Does that make sense and can you apply that to casino games....!? (or the payment structure is such that you still loose because the payout is worse than the odds...).
Isn't this just the Nightingale system (doubling bet after loosing) when you would/could run out of money before the payout... ?
Quote: aruzin
Isn't this just the Nightingale system (doubling bet after loosing) when you would/could run out of money before the payout... ?
It sure is. Legend has it , that while tending to the wounds of injured soldiers during the Crimean War, Florence Nightingale worked on roulette betting systems between shifts.
Best of luck with your strategy
Quote: aruzinSay we agree to through the coin 100 times, and I say if you get 10 consecutive heads you give me so and so for every streak and otherwise I give you so and so. Does that make sense and can you apply that to casino games....!?
There's no flaw in what you suggest ( apart from mixing Martingale with Nightingale :) ). You are effectively suggesting constructing a wager with odds that you prefer, but where the wager consists of multiple spins/flips/events.
I do this often for amusement.
E.g. if playing roulette, one COULD wager on red for an ( almost ) 50:50 wager, or one could DECIDE ahead of wagering that he would bet on red AND if the wager loses, double up once But if the wager wins, to walk away.
Thus one constructs a wager where the probability of success is roughly 75%, and the player puts 4 units at risk, with potential to win 1 unit.
This does not influence or beat the house edge, and the player can change his strategy part way through the composite wager.
Martingale.Quote: aruzinIsn't this just the Nightingale system (doubling bet after loosing) when you would/could run out of money before the payout... ?
We still are faced with the question: Do either the ball or the wheel know those past results and do they feel some obligation to "even things out" because they know you are standing there relying on them?
Quote: sevenThe Wizard himself states there are strategies to win-
I do? Please elaborate.
Closeted system player?Quote: WizardI do? Please elaborate.
Quote: WizardI do? Please elaborate.
He maybe have confused you with EvenBob
Quote: michael99000He maybe have confused you with EvenBob
That does happen a lot..
Quote: warpzonesBut why??At the moment I can see that there seems to be a presumption that roulette is completely random? Believe me if it's true I will steer clear of it
Why on earth would you think
it's not random? That's the
whole point of the game,
random outcomes. If it
wasn't random it could be
easily beaten.
Quote: EvenBobThat does happen a lot..
Touche!
Quote: EvenBobWhy on earth would you think
it's not random? That's the
whole point of the game,
random outcomes. If it
wasn't random it could be
easily beaten.
Random rotor speed... everything I’ve read about roulette beyond the internet claims roulette is not random.... I know the wheel and felt like the back of my hand pretty much. I’ve seen some stuff that I have mentioned on here before but considering my postings for the last couple of days I’ll tone it down haha
Quote: heatmapRandom rotor speed... everything I’ve read about roulette beyond the internet claims roulette is not random....
It's random enough for the casino
to maintain a rock hard house edge
for the last 250 years.
On most wheels, yes . . .Quote: EvenBobIt's random enough for the casino
to maintain a rock hard house edge
for the last 250 years.
Quote: WizardI do? Please elaborate.
I seem to recall you advocated for using a time machine as a winning strategy on your website.
it was called a Foolproof System for Beating Roulette
Quote: aruzinTo clarify it is obvious that 10 consecutive reds (or heads or whatever) don't come as often as say 3 reds. This is just the nature of normalized distribution of a random event or outcome (unless not random).
So why not bet more on black after observing 10 consecutive reds... !?
Because nine consecutive reds followed by a black do come up as often as ten consecutive reds.
So the premise that at any time period or any number of Roulette turns you choose, say in any one night, or a month or a year or the history of all Roulette tables in one casino or in all or any casinos in the world that you like to pick, all recorded, there are more occurrences of 3 consecutive Reds than 10 consecutive Reds is not correct ... !?
I will never get this random theory of normalized distribution.... !
Quote: aruzinSo the premise that at any time period or any number of Roulette turns you choose, say in any one night, or a month or a year or the history of all Roulette tables in one casino or in all or any casinos in the world that you like to pick, all recorded, there are more occurrences of 3 consecutive Reds than 10 consecutive Reds is not correct ... !?
On the contrary - it has to be correct, if for no other reason that every run of 10 consecutive reds includes three distinct runs of 3 consecutive reds. If you include overlaps (e.g. spins 1-2-3, 2-3-4, and 3-4-5), there are eight times as many.
nobody ever notices when it comes up red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black.Quote: ThatDonGuyBecause nine consecutive reds followed by a black do come up as often as ten consecutive reds.
I have no idea why people sit around wasting time for a particular pattern of black or Reds in a row they think is due to break so they can jam up there bets. There's so many different patterns they could be using if there was any merit to any of that BS.
Quote: AxelWolfnobody ever notices when it comes up red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black, red, black.
That is supposed to happen more often than any other pattern for a random wheel/event, considering even chances for red/black (ignore the 0 and 00 for minute).
Quote: aruzinThat is supposed to happen more often than any other pattern for a random wheel/event, considering even chances for red/black (ignore the 0 and 00 for minute).
This might depend on how you are defining "red, black, red, black."
In a particular selection of 20 consecutive spins, "red, black, red, black, ..., red, black" is equally as likely as "20 reds."
If you are including "black, red, black, red, ..., black, red" in your definition of "red, black, red, black, ...", then you are right - it would be twice as likely - but if you bet the first sequence and the second comes up, that's 20 straight losses.
Quote: ThatDonGuyThis might depend on how you are defining "red, black, red, black."
In a particular selection of 20 consecutive spins, "red, black, red, black, ..., red, black" is equally as likely as "20 reds."
If you are including "black, red, black, red, ..., black, red" in your definition of "red, black, red, black, ...", then you are right - it would be twice as likely - but if you bet the first sequence and the second comes up, that's 20 straight losses.
Yes, you are right, I just meant alternating colours as oppose to any particular pattern...
Basically what I like to be able to bet is, if you turn the wheel a 1000 times I want to bet a 1000 dollars that you won't get 10 consecutive reds (or 10 black for that matter), if I win I get 2000 dollars back (my original plus equal win) , if I loose I loose my 1000 dollar bet.. ! Any way to do that ... !?
Quote: aruzinBasically what I like to be able to bet is, if you turn the wheel a 1000 times I want to bet a 1000 dollars that you won't get 10 consecutive reds (or 10 black for that matter), if I win I get 2000 dollars back (my original plus equal win) , if I loose I loose my 1000 dollar bet.. ! Any way to do that ... !?
Doubtful, especially in a real-life (as opposed to online) situation, as, going by the Wizard's own numbers, it could take up to eight hours to resolve.
Besides, assuming the bet is that you lose if 10 reds or 10 blacks come up consecutively in the 1000 spins, but a 0 or 00 stops any streak of consecutive reds or blacks, some quick simulation shows you would win about 55% of the time; who is going to offer a bet with a player advantage like that? (The bet becomes 47% in single-zero roulette, 3/8 in a straight coin toss, and 28% if you go back to the double-zero wheel but you lose with 9 in a row of either color.)
actually I do have to guess, not the kind of math I can do without study, but if there *was* a way to do that, I am guessing you would have many, many folks here ready to take that betQuote: aruzinYes, you are right, I just meant alternating colours as oppose to any particular pattern...
Basically what I like to be able to bet is, if you turn the wheel a 1000 times I want to bet a 1000 dollars that you won't get 10 consecutive reds (or 10 black for that matter), if I win I get 2000 dollars back (my original plus equal win) , if I loose I loose my 1000 dollar bet.. ! Any way to do that ... !?
Quote: odiousgambitactually I do have to guess, not the kind of math I can do without study, but if there *was* a way to do that, I am guessing you would have many, many folks here ready to take that bet
I get 43% chance of at a streak of at least 10 red in a set of 1,000 spins.
1 - (1 - (18/38)^10)^990 = 0.43060492
Quote: unJonI get 43% chance of at a streak of at least 10 red in a set of 1,000 spins.
1 - (1 - (18/38)^10)^990 = 0.43060492
The formula only works if you are talking about independent events. Each spin from #10 through #991 is part of 19 sets of 10 consecutive spins.
Quote: aruzinif I loose I loose my 1000 dollar bet.. ! Any way to do that ... !?
I see this all time on gambling
forums. I always wonder when
people spell lose 'loose', what
do they think when they see
the word 'lose'. Do they have
to look it up? Is it foreign to
them?
Thanks for the catch.Quote: ThatDonGuyThe formula only works if you are talking about independent events. Each spin from #10 through #991 is part of 19 sets of 10 consecutive spins.
Quote: EvenBobI always wonder when people spell lose 'loose', what do they think when they see the word 'lose'.
lose: What happens if you don't win or push.
loose: a quality attributed to slot machines and women who chat up middle-aged men in casinos.
loosen: what people have to do with grammar and spelling standards as keyboards and fingers age.
he walks vegas all day long looking for a display without any of those 7 numbers showing. makes his bets starting at 2 bucks each number and on the inside 5 (2 on either side and including 0) after 5 spins he goes to $4 for 4 spins then to $8 for 3 spins, then either hits or walks away. I am sure he takes some lumps but he gets a lot of wins as well. If my math is right those numbers should show up once every 7.5 rolls so 3X on a display so not showing for 20+ rolls he ads in another 12 each one of those numbers should have hit at least once in that series
