warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 4:19:31 AM permalink
Hello All

I was thinking about how it could be possible to have a winning strategy for roulette using the theories of probability and the "law of averages"...

Starting to think about wether if only betting in each situation where something has a very strong probability of winning..

For example- Say you only bet when 8 of the same "dozen" came up i.e. spin numbers (History) 4,5,2,8,7,9,1,9
AND THEN- In this situation you bet on the other 2 dozens (13-24) + (25-36)

What do you think? Would not there be a strong probability of the other 2 dozens coming up in a situation like this? Or am I off-track here? What if one was to wait for even more of the same dozen, even 12 times?

There is also the idea I've seen where you wait for 1 of the dozen to NOT come up in history for many spins- 10+ and then bet on it instead for a greater return....
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
November 15th, 2014 at 5:49:20 AM permalink
By law of averages you really mean law of large numbers and there is always a set of large numbers wherein the most ridiculous and absurd things have happened.

Do you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 6:22:10 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

By law of averages you really mean law of large numbers and there is always a set of large numbers wherein the most ridiculous and absurd things have happened.

Do you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?

No- But we are... We have a memory and we look at the history and that does actually count for something. It does actually have bearing.... Look into Quantum Mechanics for your proof on that one..

I find it unuseful to simply dismiss everything based upon a "gamblers fallacy" it get nowhere

The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........

Yes, I myself have seen the most crazy things happen too, but if a strategy was divised wherein a loss was extremely unlikey- It could just work.... I am hopeful there's a way.

Call me an Optimist in that regard ;)
Greasyjohn
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
• Posts: 2169
November 15th, 2014 at 6:31:27 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Do you really think the wheel and the little ball are keeping track of which dozen is hot and which is cold?

No. But remember, there are two balls at most roulette tables, and the bigger one does keep track.
MidwestAP
Joined: Feb 19, 2012
• Posts: 1262
November 15th, 2014 at 6:44:53 AM permalink
Quote: Greasyjohn

No. But remember, there are two balls at most roulette tables, and the bigger one does keep track.

Of course, that's because he's already paid his dues by traveling around the wheel hundreds of thousands of times. And he shouts at the little one to land on certain numbers to 'even things out'.
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 7:02:19 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........

seven
Joined: Oct 1, 2013
• Posts: 151
November 15th, 2014 at 7:09:17 AM permalink
Quote: warpzones

The Wizard himself states there are strategies to win- So lets get to the point and discuss that if we can...........

did the Wizard explain how this would work? I can tell You that there is no strategy to beat European one zero or US double zero roulette. save Your time and efforts.
my 2 cents
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
• Posts: 8134
November 15th, 2014 at 7:39:46 AM permalink
The wizard clearly differentiates strategy from systems.

A system is where you base your betting pattern on past events - there is no system that works.

A strategy is where you base your betting pattern on something that is manipulated by your knowledge - example, card counting.

There are other strategies where you can put your mind to work. But simply saying I have a memory of what came previously in a game where each individual event has no bearing on the next - that is meaningless.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014
• Posts: 31
November 15th, 2014 at 7:40:24 AM permalink
Ok, so things are becoming a little clearer now- Apparently there are ways to win with other games, but roullette is NOT one of them?
warpzones
Joined: Feb 4, 2014