obscene player advantage
Quote: RSmake sure it's legal, you won't get stiffed and you can get away with it.
Stiffed? Make sure you're not about to be robbed outright.
Does your bankroll support the minimum action to take advantage of it? Doesn't matter if it's 250% edge if you don't have the $billion it takes to play.
The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.
Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)
250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.
Quote: darkozSorry if I'm dense, but isn't a 250% edge impossible or at least redundant?
The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.
Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)
250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.
I believe that you may be confusing edge with probability. Let
b = net odds received
p = probability of winning
q = probability of losing
1 - p = q
edge= bp - q
For example with b = 10 and p = .32, the edge is about 2.52 but the probability of winning the bet is only about .32.
250% edge doesn't mean it's a sure thing to pop. What if the promo was "hit a dealt 4oak two hands in a row" and you get some astronomical payout?
Would you still need a bankroll?
mean, exactly.
Quote: EvenBobSo if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.
It means on average you can expect to double your money.
(win / bet * p(win) - bet * p(lose)) * 100 = edge
The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 - 1 * 0) * 100 = 100%
Another simple example would be you win 3:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (3/1 * .5 - 1 * .5) * 100 = 100%)
Quote: EvenBobSo if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.
It means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.
Quote: EvenBobSo if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.
It means, in the long run, you expect to be ahead 100% of your action. You can win 1 unit every round. You can win 3 units 50% of the time and lose 1 unit 50% of the time (after 2 rounds, that's 2 units). Or 80% chance to push, 10% chance to lose 1, and 10% chance to win 11. Or a 99% chance to lose $1 and 1% chance to win $199 (or something like that).
Quote: wudgedIt means on average you can expect to double your money.
win / bet * p(win) * 100 = edge
The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 * 100 = 100%)
Another simple example would be you win 2:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (2/1 * .5 * 100 = 100%)
Huh?
2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.
Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.
Quote: RSHuh?
2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.
Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.
Yea I realized that after posting and went back and edited it.
Quote: HughJassIt means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.
No. It means your expected value is 1 unit for every unit that you but (ie: 100% = 1.0).
Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?
For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!
However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.
I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.
Quote: darkozOkay, I used the word edge while the OP used the word advantage.
Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?
For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!
However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.
I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.
5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.
I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.
I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.
You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.
Quote: EvenBobI always thought of a 100% edge this way.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.
If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.
If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.
Quote: RS5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.
I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.
I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.
You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.
If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.
If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.
Okay, you're speaking a different language.
Mathemat-english.
I only speak English
What's my advantage? What's my edge? If you said 0, you're correct, I have no advantage!
However, there is variance.
My EV (Expected Value) is like edge/advantage, but is expressed as a dollar amount. My advantage is 0%. My EV is $0. I expect to win $0 per round.
However, my ACTUAL RESULTS are not going to be $0 / round....I must either win $1 or lose $1. It is impossible to break even in a given round. Thus: Variance.
Quote: RS
If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.
.
What does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.
Quote: EvenBobWhat does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.
You have 100% probability of winning. The edge depends on your payout. If I'm laying you even money on your guaranteed chance, your edge is 100%. If im laying you 3:1, your edge is 300%. If im laying you 6:5, your edge is only 20%.
Quote: DeucekiesYou have 100% probability of winning. The edge depends on your payout. If I'm laying you even money on your guaranteed chance, your edge is 100%. If im laying you 3:1, your edge is 300%. If im laying you 6:5, your edge is only 20%.
So if I bet two dozens at once in roulette,
I have a 66% probability of winning, but
no edge because the house has a 5+%
edge on every spin?
Quote: EvenBobWhat does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.
100% Guaranteed to Win does mot mean 100% Edge.
You are confusing Edge (EV) with Variance.
Say you Bet $100 and Have a 100% Guarantee to Win $0,01.
Your EV is 0,01%.
And say this game has a max bet of $100 and it takes about a minute to play.
It is still a lousy bet even though you are guaranteed to Win.
The Best metric to use is EV per Hour based on a certain Risk of Ruin.
Quote: EvenBobSo if I bet two dozens at once in roulette,
I have a 66% probability of winning, but
no edge because the house has a 5+%
edge on every spin?
Slightly less than 66% (63.15%) because of 0 and 00.
But yeah, that's pretty much right.
Actually, you have a negative edge ( -HE ).
Your edge is:
Chance_Of_Win * Payout - Chance_Of_Loss * Wager = Player Edge
A simple game, like roulette, but only have 10 numbers and can only bet on one number, straight up, at a time. Payout is 7:1. Using the above formula:
(1/10 * 7) - (9/10 * 1) = Player Edge
= 7/10 - 9/10 = -2/10
= -20% player edge (ie: 20% House Edge).
