onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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October 13th, 2014 at 1:19:18 AM permalink
If there were such a thing, say 250% player advantage, how much do you offer to enter the arrangement with your money? How much does factoring too good to be true affect this as in incalculable risk like Revel countermeasures were in their promotion?
I am a robot.
FleaStiff
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:24:42 AM permalink
Well, I'm sure you've heard the old "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". Other than that... go for it. Its not for you to second guess casino marketing programs. The M resorts holiday meals to go are great and clearly sold at a loss. Many people clearly do not gamble, they pick up the food and leave. Why worry about the casino? If there is this great advantage, don't ask why the casino is recruiting participants or developing a pool of unique players.... just hop on and enjoy the ride.
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 3:53:11 AM permalink
What are you actually asking? Has someone found a play and is asking for X amount of money so you can get in on the action? If so, then consider things like variance and chance of success, how long you can play or if it's a one time thing, make sure it's legal, you won't get stiffed and you can get away with it.
Dieter
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Dieter
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October 13th, 2014 at 6:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: RS

make sure it's legal, you won't get stiffed and you can get away with it.



Stiffed? Make sure you're not about to be robbed outright.

Does your bankroll support the minimum action to take advantage of it? Doesn't matter if it's 250% edge if you don't have the $billion it takes to play.
May the cards fall in your favor.
darkoz
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October 13th, 2014 at 8:21:38 AM permalink
Sorry if I'm dense, but isn't a 250% edge impossible or at least redundant?

The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.

Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)

250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.
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HughJass
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October 13th, 2014 at 8:44:33 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Sorry if I'm dense, but isn't a 250% edge impossible or at least redundant?

The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.

Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)

250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.



I believe that you may be confusing edge with probability. Let

b = net odds received
p = probability of winning
q = probability of losing

1 - p = q

edge= bp - q

For example with b = 10 and p = .32, the edge is about 2.52 but the probability of winning the bet is only about .32.
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 9:58:24 AM permalink
Edge is your % of average win per round. It can be over 100%. You bet $1 on a coin flip on heads. It pays 5:1. You have > 100% advantage.

250% edge doesn't mean it's a sure thing to pop. What if the promo was "hit a dealt 4oak two hands in a row" and you get some astronomical payout?

Would you still need a bankroll?
EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:42:04 AM permalink
So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
wudged
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:52:39 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means on average you can expect to double your money.

(win / bet * p(win) - bet * p(lose)) * 100 = edge

The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 - 1 * 0) * 100 = 100%

Another simple example would be you win 3:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (3/1 * .5 - 1 * .5) * 100 = 100%)
HughJass
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:53:17 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:00:48 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means, in the long run, you expect to be ahead 100% of your action. You can win 1 unit every round. You can win 3 units 50% of the time and lose 1 unit 50% of the time (after 2 rounds, that's 2 units). Or 80% chance to push, 10% chance to lose 1, and 10% chance to win 11. Or a 99% chance to lose $1 and 1% chance to win $199 (or something like that).
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:04:25 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

It means on average you can expect to double your money.

win / bet * p(win) * 100 = edge

The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 * 100 = 100%)

Another simple example would be you win 2:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (2/1 * .5 * 100 = 100%)



Huh?

2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.

Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.
wudged
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:06:50 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Huh?

2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.

Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.



Yea I realized that after posting and went back and edited it.
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:08:41 PM permalink
Quote: HughJass

It means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.



No. It means your expected value is 1 unit for every unit that you but (ie: 100% = 1.0).
darkoz
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:15:38 PM permalink
Okay, I used the word edge while the OP used the word advantage.

Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?

For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!

However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.

I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.
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EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:17:32 PM permalink
I always thought of a 100% edge this way.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:23:05 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Okay, I used the word edge while the OP used the word advantage.

Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?

For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!

However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.

I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.



5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.

I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.

I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.

You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.

Quote: EvenBob

I always thought of a 100% edge this way.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.



If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.

If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.
darkoz
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:39:02 PM permalink
Quote: RS

5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.

I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.

I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.

You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.



If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.

If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.



Okay, you're speaking a different language.

Mathemat-english.

I only speak English
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:43:02 PM permalink
You offer me a game. It's a coin flip. Heads I win $1, tails I lose $1.

What's my advantage? What's my edge? If you said 0, you're correct, I have no advantage!

However, there is variance.

My EV (Expected Value) is like edge/advantage, but is expressed as a dollar amount. My advantage is 0%. My EV is $0. I expect to win $0 per round.

However, my ACTUAL RESULTS are not going to be $0 / round....I must either win $1 or lose $1. It is impossible to break even in a given round. Thus: Variance.
EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:05:55 PM permalink
Quote: RS


If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.
.



What does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Deucekies
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:38:12 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

What does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.


You have 100% probability of winning. The edge depends on your payout. If I'm laying you even money on your guaranteed chance, your edge is 100%. If im laying you 3:1, your edge is 300%. If im laying you 6:5, your edge is only 20%.
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EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:46:54 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

You have 100% probability of winning. The edge depends on your payout. If I'm laying you even money on your guaranteed chance, your edge is 100%. If im laying you 3:1, your edge is 300%. If im laying you 6:5, your edge is only 20%.



So if I bet two dozens at once in roulette,
I have a 66% probability of winning, but
no edge because the house has a 5+%
edge on every spin?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AceTwo
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:56:13 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

What does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.



100% Guaranteed to Win does mot mean 100% Edge.
You are confusing Edge (EV) with Variance.

Say you Bet $100 and Have a 100% Guarantee to Win $0,01.
Your EV is 0,01%.
And say this game has a max bet of $100 and it takes about a minute to play.
It is still a lousy bet even though you are guaranteed to Win.

The Best metric to use is EV per Hour based on a certain Risk of Ruin.
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:58:27 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if I bet two dozens at once in roulette,
I have a 66% probability of winning, but
no edge because the house has a 5+%
edge on every spin?



Slightly less than 66% (63.15%) because of 0 and 00.

But yeah, that's pretty much right.



Actually, you have a negative edge ( -HE ).



Your edge is:

Chance_Of_Win * Payout - Chance_Of_Loss * Wager = Player Edge

A simple game, like roulette, but only have 10 numbers and can only bet on one number, straight up, at a time. Payout is 7:1. Using the above formula:

(1/10 * 7) - (9/10 * 1) = Player Edge
= 7/10 - 9/10 = -2/10

= -20% player edge (ie: 20% House Edge).
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