onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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October 13th, 2014 at 1:19:18 AM permalink
If there were such a thing, say 250% player advantage, how much do you offer to enter the arrangement with your money? How much does factoring too good to be true affect this as in incalculable risk like Revel countermeasures were in their promotion?
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FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:24:42 AM permalink
Well, I'm sure you've heard the old "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". Other than that... go for it. Its not for you to second guess casino marketing programs. The M resorts holiday meals to go are great and clearly sold at a loss. Many people clearly do not gamble, they pick up the food and leave. Why worry about the casino? If there is this great advantage, don't ask why the casino is recruiting participants or developing a pool of unique players.... just hop on and enjoy the ride.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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October 13th, 2014 at 3:53:11 AM permalink
What are you actually asking? Has someone found a play and is asking for X amount of money so you can get in on the action? If so, then consider things like variance and chance of success, how long you can play or if it's a one time thing, make sure it's legal, you won't get stiffed and you can get away with it.
Dieter
Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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October 13th, 2014 at 6:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: RS

make sure it's legal, you won't get stiffed and you can get away with it.



Stiffed? Make sure you're not about to be robbed outright.

Does your bankroll support the minimum action to take advantage of it? Doesn't matter if it's 250% edge if you don't have the $billion it takes to play.
May the cards fall in your favor.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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October 13th, 2014 at 8:21:38 AM permalink
Sorry if I'm dense, but isn't a 250% edge impossible or at least redundant?

The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.

Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)

250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.
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HughJass
HughJass
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
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October 13th, 2014 at 8:44:33 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Sorry if I'm dense, but isn't a 250% edge impossible or at least redundant?

The edge is not defined by how much ratio your win is to wager (ex. bet $100 get back $250) but by how much chance you have of success at turning any profit.

Therefore, the highest edge possible would be 100%. You either have a perfect, 100% edge of never losing your money and always turning profit, a 99% edge of almost certainly never losing your money and turning profit (which would be more likely since my science teacher proclaimed even the sun going supernova has an infinitesimal chance of happening.)

250% edge is like saying I guarantee you will not lose your money more than twice as good as someone who claims you will not lose your money.



I believe that you may be confusing edge with probability. Let

b = net odds received
p = probability of winning
q = probability of losing

1 - p = q

edge= bp - q

For example with b = 10 and p = .32, the edge is about 2.52 but the probability of winning the bet is only about .32.
RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 9:58:24 AM permalink
Edge is your % of average win per round. It can be over 100%. You bet $1 on a coin flip on heads. It pays 5:1. You have > 100% advantage.

250% edge doesn't mean it's a sure thing to pop. What if the promo was "hit a dealt 4oak two hands in a row" and you get some astronomical payout?

Would you still need a bankroll?
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:42:04 AM permalink
So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:52:39 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means on average you can expect to double your money.

(win / bet * p(win) - bet * p(lose)) * 100 = edge

The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 - 1 * 0) * 100 = 100%

Another simple example would be you win 3:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (3/1 * .5 - 1 * .5) * 100 = 100%)
HughJass
HughJass
Joined: Jul 20, 2014
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October 13th, 2014 at 11:53:17 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.

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