andysif
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
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July 28th, 2014 at 11:00:45 PM permalink
Normally if you had an advantage you just keep playing until you drop or get banned.

But let say there is a game that you know you have an advantage, but you are allowed to only play it once.

I understand that to maximize your potential is to bet the Kellly's. But is there anything else you can do to help?

Say a 50/50 coin toss pays 1.1, but you are only allowed to bet once, on one side only.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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July 28th, 2014 at 11:08:12 PM permalink
Quote: andysif

Normally if you had an advantage you just keep playing until you drop or get banned.

But let say there is a game that you know you have an advantage, but you are allowed to only play it once.

I understand that to maximize your potential is to bet the Kellly's. But is there anything else you can do to help?

Say a 50/50 coin toss pays 1.1, but you are only allowed to bet once, on one side only.



Nope, just play, bet full Kelly the one time, and hope for the best.

Note that expectation is additive. It's not required that all the bets be the same. So your expectation over a million bets in your lifetime is the sum of their expectations, even though they are all different bets. The coin flip with the 5% edge just adds 5% of your bet to your lifetime EV.

Just keep accumulating that EV, don't go broke (that's what Kelly is for) and you will be fine.
Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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July 29th, 2014 at 1:27:02 AM permalink
Reminded me of this stoy:


Quote: Antonio Esfandiari


I like to gamble, but flipping for 50k is a little too sick even for me. Only one time was I so steamed in London after losing 24k to Phil high-carding that I offered a 50k flip, which he passed on. At this moment, I was in a good mood and could not handle the mental sickness of losing a 50k flip. Chris even offered me $500 in juice to flip… hmmm. It was tempting I have to admit, but losing would have been too painful. I told Chris I’d have to pass but that I had the perfect customer for him. Who better than Phil? If you pay Phil juice on a 50/50, he will coin flip till the day he dies! I went to go call his room but the second I lifted the phone, he walked into the poker room for the very first time that day. I introduced Chris to Phil. They said hello and within one minute they were ready to flip for 50 dimeballs. By the way, Chris cannot be older than 20. He looks closer to 16! It’s amazing that a kid this young can flip for 50 dimes! Thank God for internet poker; right, Chris?

They decided to gamble for red or black on the flop. If the flop (the first three cards to come out) is more red than black (that means if at least two of the cards are red) then red wins and vice versa. Phil gave Chris the option of picking the color. Chris picked red.

Q-7-9, all red!

There are moments when I know someone up there is looking out for me and, even though I had nothing invested, it was so enjoyable watching the flop come down all red. The best part is that Phil, for one second, thought he had won! Oops… Jennifer and I had to explain to him that he had black. He handed Chris $50,000 and kept on walking. It was beautiful.

The best part about the whole thing is that Phil actually thanked me the next day for making him 500 bucks because, in reality, that is exactly what I did.

Canyonero
Canyonero
Joined: Nov 19, 2012
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July 29th, 2014 at 1:31:49 AM permalink
Quote: andysif

Normally if you had an advantage you just keep playing until you drop or get banned.

But let say there is a game that you know you have an advantage, but you are allowed to only play it once.

I understand that to maximize your potential is to bet the Kellly's. But is there anything else you can do to help?

Say a 50/50 coin toss pays 1.1, but you are only allowed to bet once, on one side only.



Oh and by the way, you could take insurance with a friend, lay 1.05 that you are gonna lose and bet the same amount. There, either 0.05 free money or you come out even.
andysif
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
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July 29th, 2014 at 2:07:36 AM permalink
so frustrating when you know the odd is on your side but you have to let luck to decide your fate, not math.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 29th, 2014 at 3:58:07 AM permalink
Quote: Canyonero/Antonio Esfandiari

Phil actually thanked me the next day for making him 500 bucks because, in reality, that is exactly what I did.



Once again it really makes me feel retarded, but I don't get it.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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July 29th, 2014 at 4:08:39 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Once again it really makes me feel retarded, but I don't get it.



He made $500 in EV.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 29th, 2014 at 5:58:12 AM permalink
Quote: RS

He made $500 in EV.



but wouldn't that mean black was more likely than red? I guess I need to get a deck of cards out to check that out. Or there is something in the story that I missed.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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July 29th, 2014 at 6:13:38 AM permalink
Obviously you can wager taking the theoretical but since you're not guaranteed you cannot take advantage today if you don't win. Sometimes these things are really misunderstandings and improper assumptions about the facts, so go for it but don't bet the farm.
Winter's hope for us, a sunny day fools us, dreams die with a lie. They tried to kill us, Jimmy. They did. They're dirty f**king cops! *photo is not of an AP
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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July 29th, 2014 at 6:30:43 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

but wouldn't that mean black was more likely than red? I guess I need to get a deck of cards out to check that out. Or there is something in the story that I missed.



500 hundred dollars for making the bet. Either lose 49,500 or win 50,500. The juice might just have been on the win.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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