Better Chance of Winning?

Which choice at my local casino gives me a better chance of winning money?
- Blackjack: $ 15 minimum; dealer hits soft 17; allows double on all two cards; split after split allowed; 3-2 pay on blackjack; 6 decks; no surrender
- Craps: $ 10 minimum; Don't Pass ( bet minimum); Lay double Odds on 6/8 & 5/9; Lay 5x Odds on 4/10

Quote: technics

Which choice at my local casino gives me a better chance of winning money?
- Blackjack: $ 15 minimum; dealer hits soft 17; allows double on all two cards; split after split allowed; 3-2 pay on blackjack; 6 decks; no surrender
- Craps: $ 10 minimum; Don't Pass ( bet minimum); Lay double Odds on 6/8 & 5/9; Lay 5x Odds on 4/10

What do you mean by "better chance of winning money"?

You will lose less money at the blackjack game than you do at the craps game, assuming that you play properly.

Been playing for little over a year approximately every other weekend; first 6 months Blackjack only; since then both games; overall I'm slightly in the black. My understanding is that playing Don't Pass with odds and nothing else has similar House Edge as Blackjack. Is smaller minimum requirement a consideration?

Quote: technics

Been playing for little over a year approximately every other weekend; first 6 months Blackjack only; since then both games; overall I'm slightly in the black. My understanding is that playing Don't Pass with odds and nothing else has similar House Edge as Blackjack. Is smaller minimum requirement a consideration?

The odds have 0 house edge, and they don't factor into the minimum bet, so it doesn't affect your wins and losses, only your swings.

Blackjack with the rules you posted has between 1/2 and 1/3 the house edge of the don't pass. So it's still better even with the 50% higher minimum (you will lose less). If it had a $25 min, it would be close.

In other words, you will lose about the same playing $25 blackjack as you would playing $10 craps (with or without odds). Also you can swing the odds in blackjack to your favor by counting, whereas with craps you are left with the pipe dream that is DI.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The odds have 0 house edge, and they don't factor into the minimum bet, so it doesn't affect your wins and losses, only your swings.

Blackjack with the rules you posted has between 1/2 and 1/3 the house edge of the don't pass. So it's still better even with the 50% higher minimum (you will lose less). If it had a $25 min, it would be close.

In other words, you will lose about the same playing $25 blackjack as you would playing $10 craps (with or without odds). Also you can swing the odds in blackjack to your favor by counting, whereas with craps you are left with the pipe dream that is DI.

This will not be true if you purchase my about to be released book on DI.

You have a better chance at winning in craps. Higher variance.

Quote: Buzzard

This will not be true if you purchase my about to be released book on DI.

Can I send you cash up front to pre-order a copy?

Quote: RS

You have a better chance at winning in craps. Higher variance.

Not if you are flat-betting the table minimum

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Can I send you cash up front to pre-order a copy?

Can you read Braille ?

Quote: Buzzard

Can you read Braille ?

Yes.
Edit to add: Of course I have a spelling error, errr I mean evil pun.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Not if you are flat-betting the table minimum

Pass line with odds has lower variance than BJ? Huh?

Edit: thought he said pass, not don't pass. I'd still think DP+odds has higher variance than BJ. Are you able to play PL at this casino?

And ultimately, what are you getting after, OP? If you're gonna start gambling and want to know which game you'll lose less, play the BJ game on a slow table. If you're gonna go out for a night and wanna hit a big score, play craps. (Not that you will hit a big score, but have a better chance of doing that at the craps table than at the BJ table.) If there's some sort of promotion you're going after, post some of the details of the promo.

According to the Wizard of Odds: Combined HE on DP & Taking 5X Odds is .00067 per roll and .00234 per Bet Resolved; the HE for the BJ rules stated above is .0063873 making the Craps bet better....correct? Or is the craps HE stated based on not losing the DP portion of the bet?

Quote: technics

According to the Wizard of Odds: Combined HE on DP & Taking 5X Odds is .00067 per roll and .00234 per Bet Resolved; the HE for the BJ rules stated above is .0063873 making the Craps bet better....correct? Or is the craps HE stated based on not losing the DP portion of the bet?

You can't just compare percentages -- the amounts bet are different.

In blackjack the 0.63% is based on the initial wager only. If you bet the $15 minimum, you are losing about 9 and a half cents per hand.

The 0.067% per roll is based on the average total amount bet. You are betting $10 on come-out rolls and $60 on every other roll. This is a confusing way to figure it out. What you are losing is 1.41% of your base bet (ie, $10) per resolution. That is 14.1 cents per resolution -- 1.5x your losses in blackjack, even considering the higher minimum in blackjack.

Of course, not every roll is a resolution, so if you want to convert these to hourly values, you need to look at resolutions per hour. At blackjack, 60 hands/hr is reasonable (way more if you are heads up with a fast dealer, but you will probably not be heads up at a $15 table unless you are there at 4am on a Wednesday).

At craps you are looking at, maybe, 150 rolls per hour, which is about 44 resolutions per hour.

So at blackjack you might be looking at $5.67/hr in losses and, at craps, $6.20/hr. This is despite the fact that the table min at craps is 2/3 the table min at blackjack! The hourly figures are ballpark, of course -- some tables will be faster than others. To minimize losses per hour, I recommend frequent bathroom breaks.

Thanks for the feedback. It appears to be a pretty even choice. What I like about craps is that I get to vary the amount of my bet based on known variables. In BJ you must bet before knowing what cards either you or the dealer will be dealt and even though you have a choice to hit or stand based on what you have and the dealers up card, you can't change your bet. In craps you can base your bet on known variables....the odds of a certain number being rolled and what the point is.

Let me ask you about something else. Again, playing the Don't in Craps, I usually bet the minimum or slightly above minimum on 6|8 points, 2x on 5|9, & 5X on 4|10 based on the theory that in order for the bet to be resolved you have a 55% (6/11) chance of winning on a 6|8, 60%(6/10) chance on 5|9, and 67% (6/9) chance on 4|10 i.e. bet more on higher % chance of winning the resolution roll. Does this therory have any merit?

Quote: technics

Thanks for the feedback. It appears to be a pretty even choice. What I like about craps is that I get to vary the amount of my bet based on known variables. In BJ you must bet before knowing what cards either you or the dealer will be dealt and even though you have a choice to hit or stand based on what you have and the dealers up card, you can't change your bet. In craps you can base your bet on known variables....the odds of a certain number being rolled and what the point is.

Let me ask you about something else. Again, playing the Don't in Craps, I usually bet the minimum or slightly above minimum on 6|8 points, 2x on 5|9, & 5X on 4|10 based on the theory that in order for the bet to be resolved you have a 55% (6/11) chance of winning on a 6|8, 60%(6/10) chance on 5|9, and 67% (6/9) chance on 4|10 i.e. bet more on higher % chance of winning the resolution roll. Does this therory have any merit?

Depends what you mean by merit. You are just playing games with variance. It has no effect on EV.

Those bets have a higher chance of winning, but they also pay less. You have a 2/3 chance of winning when laying odds against the 4, but you are also risking 2x as much money as you stand to win. After making many such bets, you will win about 2 for every 1 that you lose, and you will break about even. You are risking a lot to win a little, so you are giving yourself a better chance of a small win, as well as a better chance of a large loss. Personally I find that style of gambling boring (grining out little wins, only to have them occasionally wiped away by large losses) but some people like that -- it's all about what you enjoy.

I don't think its even close PER $1 wagered.
A $10 Don't Pass loses 13.6c
An initial $10 BJ bet (8D H17 DAS RS4) loses about 6.5c.

Axiom: Yeah not real exciting which is why I play both games. I'm not out for a killing just a night out, some socializing, a few drinks and try to quit while I'm ahead. Like I said before over a years time I've won more than I've lost. You seem like a smart guy.... why do you gamble when you know you're going to lose?

Quote: technics

Axiom: Yeah not real exciting which is why I play both games. I'm not out for a killing just a night out, some socializing, a few drinks and try to quit while I'm ahead. Like I said before over a years time I've won more than I've lost. You seem like a smart guy.... why do you gamble when you know you're going to lose?

I stopped playing craps years ago. I used to enjoy it; now I find it boring.

Blackjack is a beatable game...

I assume you're referencing card counting. In my relatively small sample size of playing time, the amount of times I get a TC of 3+ is so infrequent that the benefits versus effort hardly seems worth it, especially when the favorable conditions might last for only a few hands. It sucks the fun out of the game for me, making craps more enjoyable despite the greater HE and my boring strategy style.

Quote: technics

I assume you're referencing card counting. In my relatively small sample size of playing time, the amount of times I get a TC of 3+ is so infrequent that the benefits versus effort hardly seems worth it, especially when the favorable conditions might last for only a few hands. It sucks the fun out of the game for me, making craps more enjoyable despite the greater HE and my boring strategy style.

If you never see TCs of +3 you are playing in a terrible game. Insufficient penetration for the number of decks.

Anyway, you asked why I play, not what you should do.