I'm a casino employee rebel and a huge fan of the Wizard and other smart gamblers

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Let me be the first to say, welcome to the forum. This is a great first post -- so great I don't have the time to adequately comment right now. I'm sure this will get a lot of discussion.

I thought the same thing- I really enjoyed reading it- but not sure what I coudl reply with that would give ample substance to the subject matter.

Quote: justaguy

Dude, I give you props for having the knowledge and discipline to make a consistent profit playing a game designed to offer a disadvantage. But, if you can win like that you don't want to be tracked in a computer so you can get freebies. Be as anonymous as you can and buy your own freebies with our money . I kinda think he was of the mind that the huge line of credit would woo a host into giving him all sorts of free stuff knowing he has a large amount of money available to lose.

Good post, welcome to the forum.

There are two schools of thought about whether card counters should fly above or below the radar. There are pros and cons both ways. Ian Anderson, author of Burning the Tables in Las Vegas, is the best-known advocate of the flying above the radar method. Of course he makes sacrifices in how he plays to avoid the red flags, but believes the comps and longevity at the tables more than makes up for it. However, if your guy was a counter, playing two hands total over four hours does not exactly make you look like a recreational player. So I'm not defending his particular act.

Of the two cruising altitudes, I think flying above the radar is usually preferable for full-time career counters, and under the radar for part-time. Also, presenting a player card in the first place helps to deflect scrutiny in the pit, as most floor supervisors believe as you do, that counters like to play anonymously.

Quote: justaguy

Dude, I give you props for having the knowledge and discipline to make a consistent profit playing a game designed to offer a disadvantage. But, if you can win like that you don't want to be tracked in a computer so you can get freebies.

Maybe I'm in a different league from what you have to deal with (my typical trip budget is $500, and I play in Downtown LV, the locals casinos, and Laughlin). I haven't had a losing trip in a long time, but I still get free and reduced rate room offers, and the occasional comped meal. I don't ask for any favors like last-minute rooms, and I don't expect any favors.

I have always wondered how my play is being tracked. Over the last couple of years, I've generally been winning $2xx or $3xx per trip. Maybe at that level, they don't care so much about my play, and assume they'll get it back eventually. And so they leave me on the marketing lists.

Welcome to the forum! It is good to have an insider who understands the comp process. I am sure people will have a lot of questions for you. I know I do!

Quote: Wizard

There are two schools of thought about whether card counters should fly above or below the radar.

Seems to me this guy risked nothing with his trial balloon; if he is forced to play anonymously, he can still do it. Unless the system is passing a photo of him around, in which case he is screwed anyway. His trial balloon might help him with some "intel" on this.

Quote: justaguy

I also noticed some odd things like he once played 2x hands of blackjack in 4 hours (casinos deal around 70 hands per hour so 4 hours should have around 280 hands played). .

Did you misread the screen or did someone input the data incorrectly? Perhaps they were noting that ht was placing his wager on two different squares and thus playing two hands?
Two hands over the course of four hours indicates no one was waiting for seats and he must have really been bored or desperately in need of comped booze.

He uses X's for variables- I understood what he ment. hes saying 20 to 29 hands in those 4 hours. not two.

he used a previous example of this with 1x,xxx meaning the guy won 10 to 19 thousand dollars.


Just figured Id clearify hes refering ot 20ish hands not two.

@justaguy,

You seem to be very knowlegable re: Comps & hosts.

I have a few questions you might be able to answer:

1) Does the host really not care if you win or lose? If you are a consistent winner, how does that affect what the host can or can not do?

2) Does the host have the power to influence the offers that are sent out by "the computer"? I've had situations where my host relations were quite strained, yet the computer continued to spit out very good offers.

3) The MGM hosts seem to have a lot of discresionary power. However, the Harrah's hosts seem to be able to do diddly squat. Can you confirm? What, exactly, can a Harrah's host do for a player? Is it possible they can comp charges and have them NOT taken away from your Reward points?

Thanks for posting. Hopefully, you will continue to be a source of great information.

No that you asked me, but I think I can speak to my own experience with MGM-Mirage, Venetian, and Wynn hosts.

1. No. Hosts are compensated according to the theoretical, not actual loss, of their players. At least that is what I've been told. It may be different elsewhere. The book 'Whale Hunt in the Desert' makes the case that hosts love it when they hook players who lose 6-7 figures a trip, which was based on a Hilton host.

2. Not much. The hosts have little idea what offers/mailers you are getting. However, when I've complained about not getting mailers other players were getting, they were able to get my name on the mailer list, at least temporarily.

3. I agree. Big requests have to get approved higher up the food chain, but they can authorize most routine requests.

I highly recommend 'Whale Hunt in the Desert' for those interested in the job of a host, and how the other side views the players.

Quote: scotty81

Does the host really not care if you win or lose? If you are a consistent winner, how does that affect what the host can or can not do?

I would think that the last thing a host should care about is if you win or lose. The host is responsible to try and get a certain level of play out of a person. The House Odds determine if you win or lose. It would really turn off players to think they are getting some tiny compensation back of their losings, and will be ill-treated if they win.

@paco: That's how it used to be, but recently the hosts seem to have been getting instructions to under-comp winners (or, at least not over-comp). As one host put it to me: "Theoretical doesn't keep the lights on"

Quote: scotty81

"Theoretical doesn't keep the lights on"

That is a "sweat the money" kind of statement. I would argue that it is in fact theoretical that keeps the lights on. Yes, you need players to lose to pay the electricity bill, but players lose because of the theoretical. That host is at risk of losing players that win, who I would argue are more likely to lose next time than a player licking his wounds.

I should think no player wins every time. Surely a whale, who bets thousands per hand, can walk away some times with millions, but he should lose the theoretical over the long run. So, yes, it would be short-sighted to mistreat a player just becasue he won money. The casino should want him to return in order to give it back, no?

Quote: justaguy

... Also bear in mind all of this is hypothetical and may not have ever even happened...

Yeah. Right. LOL



Although a lot of this thread talks about whales and card counters, I'd like to turn it's attention back towards the regular guy. Guys like us... and this comment in particular:

Quote: justaguy

Memorial Day weekend is a holiday/long weekend/the start of summer every year. Plan ahead people! I luckily didn't get any of this but bunches of my co-irkers did. People who decide to book their hotel room A) when they already have arrived in Vegas room-less B) in the car driving to Vegas C) from the airport D) from the freaking airplane. Book your room before you plan your transportation people.

A lot of these last minute hotel room bookings are brought on by the casino's own overly-liberal customer service policies, particularly regarding hotel reservations.

Most casino hotels allow reservations to be cancelled, without penalty, right up to the check-in time on the day of arrival. Some are a little more rigid: Cancel by check-in time the day BEFORE arrival. Most also allow shortened stays without penalty.

These policies, particularly the first, practically invites the kind of last-minute behavior described in JustAGuy's comment posted above.

Factor in the bean-counters decisions to change rates almost as often as they change underwear, and it should be no wonder why people call last minute, hoping the place has so few bookings that the rate has been lowered.



Real world example from just this past weekend:

My brother and I and the wives decided to go to either Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun for Memorial Day. Just Sunday night. Two weeks ago, best rate at Mohegan Sun was around $300 for each room. Foxwoods (or rather MGM at Foxwoods) was $50 each. We booked it.

But we all like Mohegan Sun better. So this past Saturday, my wife calls again. She plays a lot of $1/$5 slots, so she's gonna get the best rates. She got one room for free, and one for $180. My brother golfs, and the greens fees were about $75 less for Mohegan Sun's course.

So it cost us $5 to switch. Naturally, we switched.

As we're driving up, we make plans to return for July 4th. We call both places, got rates, and booked two rooms at MGM at Foxwoods - but we said we'd call Mohegan Sun again around 7/1 to try again!

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I never even thought of the idea of a "trial balloon" aspect of it. That is awesome, all he really risked is whether he gets his comps or not, if he was squeamish after he could just play without be rated if he choose. I wouldn't imagine security being notified to watch him based on trying to get comps, it's really dumb things that tend to get people watched.

I have some personal gambling time coming up, dunno if I want to play my fave game, do an American Casino Guide Coupon run and play lots of games for very short periods, or try the new oddball carny games (rock and roll dice and casino backgammon and maybe the electro-craps at Mandalay Bay (already done Rapid Craps and I like it).

My experience is to avoid dealing with hosts and just take the computer-generated offers. Hosts won't do diddly-squat for a smart gambler. The key is not working hosts, but structuring your play to make yourself look stupider than you really are. The main way I do this is to discreetly drop a green chip in my pocket ever so often and not to color them up at the table. I usually buy in for $2000 and by the time I finish a session I will always have a couple hundred in the pocket in addition to whatever I have on the table. Yes, some pits might catch on this, but judging from the numbers I see on my win/loss statements, most don't.

Depending on where you play, hosts typically aren't involved in the complimentary computations. They have limited to large sway in the very beginning, then it's all history. I have seen most of the major resorts criteria, and very few actually include hands/hour in the player rating. Instead it's a basic formula: set hands/hour*avg bet*time played*h/a= theoretical. In most games, the house advantage is static ie roulette. In black jack it's somewhat discretionary to a point. As well as craps, which is the most widely varying of rated games as it depends on how much of the odds they give you credit for.

Another criteria is how much of the credit line is played through, or better put: at risk. There are different ways to expose your roll to the house advantage and the higher the risk of ruin for the player, generally the more generous the comps provided.

As far as hiding wins, this depends again on the place, most count the rack prior to play and immediately after play. If you're a medium to high roller it's unlikely to be very far off, with the exception of playing on a very busy table all wagering about the same amount. The table loss itself wont be off by much at all, instead, it's who that money is attributed to.

Thanks to authors and the internet (the wizard's site being one of the main ones), a large winner will not have his comps altered in any way shape or form. Instead he will have his average wager and time played input to compute the possible standard deviation. Again, this is not all casinos or even every one within the same major corporation as in some places, even a long string of minor wins on impossible games to beat will get some very lucrative players uninvited.

A last thing on hosts, don't disregard them entirely, many times a very good host can push a player over the threshold into a new comping tier/level/rating. Even over extending the static comp % return on theoretical based in large part on several criteria: recent losses, frequency of visits and the aforementioned % of credit line put into play.

Quote: justaguy

DJteddybear (one of my fave posters by the way)...

Thanks.

Quote: justaguy

I love the "I'll call the competitor!" followed by the pause where I guess I'm supposed to go "oh wait! we do have a room for you it's comp and we are giving you a REAL LIVE PONY as a gift for the inconvenience and all just because you huffed "competitors" name in a snotty tone"...

GREAT line. But tell the truth. You wish you had the balls to use that line, don't you? :)

Quote: justaguy

Do watch out though if you us the DJteddybear backup plan method, some hotels on the strip have 72 hour cancelation policies ...

Hmmm... I just checked my reservation for Imperial Palace in September. Yeah, it's a 72 hour cancellation.

In my post above, Mohegan Sun was same day, Foxwoods was 24 hour. My experience in A.C. has been same day or 24 hour.

Then again, I think even that may be dictated by the player's tier level.

Quote: justaguy

As far as the last minute. It's not the last minute bookings that bother me (Consumer Reports even recommends last minute booking with the caveat that you will either get the deal of a lifetime or end up sleeping in your car).

An acquaintance told me of a time he was vacationing in California with his family, when they decided to drive to Vegas. They arrived at Vegas on a Saturday at 6 pm, and guess what? They couldn't find a room <shock!>

They wound up at some dinky motel some miles off-Strip. On Sunday -surprise!- they found lots of rooms available.

The story about the "hypothetical big player" was very interesting. I don't know a whole lot about Vegas, gambling, or blackjack (I was in Vegas once, played basic-strategy blackjack for 2 hours at $10 min table and walked away $75 ahead); but I do know a bit about statistics.

Based on the information you gave, I'm guessing that this guy plays roughly 300 hands at $100 a hand per trip. At a 0.5% house edge, that's an expected loss of $150 ($1XX, as you said). On each of those trips, the probability that he would actually end up ahead by at least $500 is about 0.35. I calculated that by simplifying blackjack to a binomial probability problem: on each hand you play, there is a 49.75% (p) chance that you win $100 and a 50.25% (q) chance that you lose $100. I know the actual situation is more complicated, but for a large number of hands, I think it works out pretty close. To win $500 after 300 hands, his actual win proportion (p') is 50.8%. For n=300 hands, the "test statistic", z* = (p'-p)/sqrt(p*q/n). In this case, z* = 0.376 (essentially, this is the number of standard deviations away from normal for the situation). You can then look up in a standard statistics table what the probability of an event with z*=0.376 occuring by chance, and it turns out to be 35%.

So the guy coming out ahead by $500 or more on a single trip is not at all unusual. Two or three successful trips in a row would not be strange either. More than that might raise some red flags.

But here's the strange thing: Lets say he made 5 trips to Vegas and won >$500 each time (you didn't mention how many total trips he made but you said he won $5XX to $1X,XXX on every trip). Under the conditions above (assuming he is only playing basic strategy), the probability of this occuring is only 0.6% (0.354^5). But even if he is counting cards and gives himself a 1% advantage (typical for card counters I believe), then the probability of 5 consecutive $500-or-more win trips is only 1.9%. So even if he is counting cards, he is also very lucky.

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"Whoever gave an idea of a theo calculation is spot on." ;D It wasn't an idea. My guess would be the exact number of hands played was manually input so that the standard hands/hour rate was adjusted accordingly. Likely a floor supervisor noticed many rounds unwagered and made the notation.

I'm still surprised how many people are convinced there rating is based solely on their buy in :(. Even when I explained to a guest that it is a combination of buy-in (because I've been told it factors in somehow and we do track it), AVERAGE BET and TIME, he replied with "so that means if I buy in with xxxx instead of xxx I'll get a better rating). Next time I'm explaining it to someone who wants a better rating I may leave buy-in out of the picture all together. A big buy-in with $5 minimum bets (and no spread) playing for an hour is still a small player to me personally.

In the past I got to see some tracked play (outside of work) from a casino catering to the aspirational young douche-bag audience (think Ed Hardy, MMA hats, and conspicuous consumption lifestyle without the funds to really back it up). High x,xxx to xx,xxx buy-ins with table minimum bets for about an hour then cash out. The people would ask for things like private planes and the best suites possible and multiple rooms. I don't get the point, I sometimes get impressed by the funds of other people at the table with me, but only when they are betting it and it's obvious they can afford to risk it (I guess it's also why I like the way I get treated at very low roller casinos, $10 bet with $100 odds gets attention when the rest of the table is betting $3 with maybe single or double odds and throwing $1 at the hard-ways like their life depends on it).

"I guess it's also why I like the way I get treated at very low roller casinos, $10 bet with $100 odds gets attention" A few reasons and maybe all of them apply why this gets attention. Full 10x odds at a locals joint can hit a big score (for the joint) quickly. You're willing to put some real money into play, a free (no house edge) bet aside, it's in action and up for grabs. A very high probability you're overbetting your bankroll (from casino's perspective). The casino can survive the variance, but few players can.

I don't know how they formulate this part exactly, but the amount of action one is willing to give versus their line is an important part of the "grey area" a host can play into.

Someone else mentioned the concept of looking like a loser. From personal experience, I have found that hosts are much more generous to losers, and may even go far beyound the theortical loss comp amount. When I lose between $20,000 and $50,000 at the craps tables, the host is fawning all over me, even if my expected loss mathematically is only $4,000 or $5,000. I can ask for the moon and will probably get it.

Now if I have a big win and I am up $10,000 to $20,000 at the craps table, my experience is that the host still is generous, but tends to stick with a "fair" comp value. Yes, I will still get my room, food, and beverages free, but not as much special attention.

Dropping a couple of $25 chips every hour into your pocket can really help your image as a loser. I figure that $50 in my pocket an hour, times 8 hours of gambling a day, I have $400 of extra losses per day. While that doesn't factor in huge at the craps table with full odds, 5 days of gambling is an extra $2,000 of appeared losses. And 2 green chips an hour will not be missed by the boxman or floor staff, especially if most of your bets are blacks. However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.

One thing that I often ask myself is if it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, or a medium size fish in a big ocean. I love the comps that I get at smaller places like the Stratosphere, but prefer the rooms, restaurants and location of bigger places like the MGM or Mandalay Bay. Given the same amount of action, the Stratosphere treats me like a king while the Mandalay Bay treats me like a preferred customer, but not much more.

Until I actually played with the numbers, I didn't appreciate how the variability of actual win or loss is much, much greater than the "theoretical" loss even after playing hundreds of hands. In the example I gave above of playing 300 hands of blackjack at $100 a hand, the expected loss is $150. However, 70% of the time (that is, plus or minus one standard deviation), the player could end up anywhere from $1580 ahead to $1880 behind. Compare that to a card counter with a 1% advantage. His expected win in the same situation is $300, but 70% of the time he will actually be between $2030 ahead and $1430 behind. In other words, even after a few hundred hands, you cannot tell whether someone was counting cards or not by simply looking at his stack of chips. Only after tens of thousands of hands will the variance be small enough compared to the theoretical that a card counter has an obvious advantage over a basic strategy player.

Of course, what this also means is that if you count cards for only a few hundred hands, there is still a good chance you'll lose money.

Quote: gambler

Someone else mentioned the concept of looking like a loser. From personal experience, I have found that hosts are much more generous to losers, and may even go far beyound the theortical loss comp amount. When I lose between $20,000 and $50,000 at the craps tables, the host is fawning all over me, even if my expected loss mathematically is only $4,000 or $5,000. I can ask for the moon and will probably get it.

Now if I have a big win and I am up $10,000 to $20,000 at the craps table, my experience is that the host still is generous, but tends to stick with a "fair" comp value. Yes, I will still get my room, food, and beverages free, but not as much special attention.

Dropping a couple of $25 chips every hour into your pocket can really help your image as a loser. I figure that $50 in my pocket an hour, times 8 hours of gambling a day, I have $400 of extra losses per day. While that doesn't factor in huge at the craps table with full odds, 5 days of gambling is an extra $2,000 of appeared losses. And 2 green chips an hour will not be missed by the boxman or floor staff, especially if most of your bets are blacks. However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.

One thing that I often ask myself is if it is better to be a big fish in a small pond, or a medium size fish in a big ocean. I love the comps that I get at smaller places like the Stratosphere, but prefer the rooms, restaurants and location of bigger places like the MGM or Mandalay Bay. Given the same amount of action, the Stratosphere treats me like a king while the Mandalay Bay treats me like a preferred customer, but not much more.

What gambler says, x2. Spot on.

Quote: gambler

When I lose between $20,000 and $50,000 at the craps tables, the host is fawning all over me, even if my expected loss mathematically is only $4,000 or $5,000. I can ask for the moon and will probably get it.

Now if I have a big win and I am up $10,000 to $20,000 at the craps table, my experience is that the host still is generous, but tends to stick with a "fair" comp value.

Well, sure!

If you lose a lot, they want to do whatever it takes, at whatever reasonable costs, to get you to do it again.

If you win a lot, they want to do whatever it takes, at whatever reasonable costs, to get you to stick around when your luck changes.


The difference is, when you lose, they have your losses to add to the expense budget they use to entice you.

LamKram "Until I actually played with the numbers, I didn't appreciate how the variability of actual win or loss is much, much greater than the "theoretical" loss even after playing hundreds of hands. In the example I gave above of playing 300 hands of blackjack at $100 a hand, the expected loss is $150. However, 70% of the time (that is, plus or minus one standard deviation), the player could end up anywhere from $1580 ahead to $1880 behind. Compare that to a card counter with a 1% advantage. His expected win in the same situation is $300, but 70% of the time he will actually be between $2030 ahead and $1430 behind. In other words, even after a few hundred hands, you cannot tell whether someone was counting cards or not by simply looking at his stack of chips. Only after tens of thousands of hands will the variance be small enough compared to the theoretical that a card counter has an obvious advantage over a basic strategy player.

Of course, what this also means is that if you count cards for only a few hundred hands, there is still a good chance you'll lose money."

This leads exactly to the big team approach to card counting. The larger the sample size the more likely it is to reach the theoretical. Just as a well rolled casino won't sweat the variance, instead they care more for hands/hour. As over a large enough sample of trials the variance will even out.

Quote: gambler

However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.

Why is that? It's your money.

One time I was playing BJ and bought in for 200 and was leaving with about 700 mostly green chips. I got up and started putting them in my pockets and the dealer asked if I wanted to color up. I said no thanks (not really sure why) packed up and moved to the next game or the cage.

The casinos have no problem with taking your money and they should know that the feeling is mutual.

Quote: iamthepush

Quote: gambler

However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.

Why is that? It's your money.

Because the staff would notice a missing black chip.

By removing greens, he makes his stack in the rail look smaller, which may enable the floor person to mistakenly assume he lost it thru higher average bets. So the simple trick of pocketing greens instead of blacks, might help his comp rating.